ABSTRACT
To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological Diversity-Living in harmony with nature-is that "By 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people". In this context, there are a variety of debates between alternative perspectives on how to achieve this vision. Yet, scenarios and models that are able to explore these debates in the context of "living in harmony with nature" have not been widely developed. To address this gap, the Nature Futures Framework has been developed to catalyse the development of new scenarios and models that embrace a plurality of perspectives on desirable futures for nature and people. In this paper, members of the IPBES task force on scenarios and models provide an example of how the Nature Futures Framework can be implemented for the development of illustrative narratives representing a diversity of desirable nature futures: information that can be used to assess and develop scenarios and models whilst acknowledging the underpinning value perspectives on nature. Here, the term illustrative reflects the multiple ways in which desired nature futures can be captured by these narratives. In addition, to explore the interdependence between narratives, and therefore their potential to be translated into scenarios and models, the six narratives developed here were assessed around three areas of the transformative change debate, specifically, (1) land sparing vs. land sharing, (2) Half Earth vs. Whole Earth conservation, and (3) green growth vs. post-growth economic development. The paper concludes with an assessment of how the Nature Futures Framework could be used to assist in developing and articulating transformative pathways towards desirable nature futures. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11625-023-01316-1.
ABSTRACT
Spatial patterns of beta diversity are a major focus of ecology. They can be especially valuable in conservation planning. In this study, we used a generalized dissimilarity modeling approach to analyze and predict the spatial patterns of beta diversity for commercially exploited, demersal marine species assemblages along the Tunisian coasts. For this study, we used a presence/absence dataset which included information on 174 species (invertebrates and fishes) and 9 environmental variables. We first performed the modeling analyses and assessed beta diversity using the turnover component of the Jaccard's dissimilarity index. We then performed nonmetric multidimensional scaling to map predicted beta diversity. To delineate the biogeographical regions, we used fuzzy cluster analysis. Finally, we also identified a set of indicator species which characterized the species assemblages in each identified biogeographical region. The predicted beta diversity map revealed two patterns: an inshore-offshore gradient and a south-north latitudinal gradient. Three biogeographical regions were identified and 14 indicator species. These results constitute a first contribution of the bioregionalisation of the Tunisian waters and highlight the issues associated with current fisheries management zones and conservation strategies. Results could be useful to follow an Ecosystem Based Management approach by proposing an objective spatial partitioning of the Tunisian waters. This partitioning could be used to prioritize the adjustment of the actual fisheries management entities, identify current data gaps, inform future scientific surveys and improve current MPA network.
