European health inequality through the 'Great Recession': social policy matters.

This paper investigates the association between the Great Recession and educational inequalities in self-rated general health in 25 European countries. We investigate four different indicators related to economic recession: GDP; unemployment; austerity and a 'crisis' indicator signifying severe simultaneous drops in GDP and welfare generosity. We also assess the extent to which health inequality changes can be attributed to changes in the economic conditions and social capital in the European populations. The paper uses data from the European Social Survey (2002-2014). The analyses include both cross-sectional and lagged associations using multilevel linear regression models with country fixed effects. This approach allows us to identify health inequality changes net of all time-invariant differences between countries. GDP drops and increasing unemployment were associated with decreasing health inequalities. Austerity, however, was related to increasing health inequalities, an association that grew stronger with time. The strongest increase in health inequality was found for the more robust 'crisis' indicator. Changes in trust, social relationships and in the experience of economic hardship of the populations accounted for much of the increase in health inequality. The paper concludes that social policy has an important role in the development of health inequalities, particularly during times of economic crisis.

A fuzzy set approach to economic crisis, austerity and public health. Part I. European countries' conformity to ideal types during the economic downturn.

AIMS: This is the first part of a two-part paper that takes an explorative approach to assess crisis and austerity in European countries during the Great Recession. The ultimate aim of this two-part paper is to explore the "crisis-austerity" thesis by Stuckler and Basu and assess whether it is the interplay between austerity and crisis, rather than the current economic crisis per se, that can led to deterioration in population health. In Part I of this paper we offer one way of operationalizing crisis severity and austerity. We examine countries as specific configurations of crisis and policy responses and classify European countries into "ideal types." METHODS: Cases included were 29 countries participating in the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) surveys. Based on fuzzy set methodology, we constructed two fuzzy sets, "austerity" and "severe crisis." Austerity was measured by changes in welfare generosity; severe crisis was measured by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth. RESULTS: In the initial phase of the Great Recession, most countries faced severe crisis combined with no austerity. From 2010-2011 onward, there was a divide between countries. Some countries consistently showed signs of austerity policies (with or without severe crisis); others consistently did not. CONCLUSIONS: The fuzzy set ideal-type analysis shows that the European countries position themselves, by and large, in configurations of crisis and austerity in meaningful ways that allow us to explore the "crisis-austerity" thesis by Stuckler and Basu. This exploration is the undertaking of Part II of this paper.

A fuzzy set approach to economic crisis, austerity and public health. Part II: How are configurations of crisis and austerity related to changes in population health across Europe?

AIMS: Based on the ideal type classification of European countries done in Part I of this paper, Part II explores whether the real 'danger' to public health is the interplay between austerity and crisis, rather than recession itself. METHODS: We constructed two fuzzy sets of changes in population health based on a pooled file of European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data (2008 and 2013) including 29 European countries. The linear probability analyses of 'limiting long-standing illness' and 'less than good' health were restricted to the age group 20-64 years. We performed fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) and studied whether configurations of 'severe crisis' and 'austerity' were linked to changes in population health. RESULTS: Overall, the results of this fsQCA do not support the 'crisis-austerity' thesis. Results on 'less than good' health were highly inconsistent, while results on 'limiting long-standing illness', contrary to the thesis, showed a two-path model. Countries with either no severe crisis or no austerity were subsets of the set of countries that experienced deteriorated health. Results also show that several countries combined both paths. CONCLUSIONS: This fuzzy set analysis does not support Stuckler and Basu's 'crisis-austerity' thesis, as those European countries that experienced recession and austerity were not consistently the countries with deteriorating health. There may be multiple reasons for this result, including analytical approach and operationalization of key concepts, but also resilient forces such as family support. We suggest more research on the topic based on more recent data and possibly other, or more, dimensions of austerity.