Validation of global precipitation time series products against tree ring records and remotely sensed vegetation greenness.

Global interpolated climate products are widely used in ecological research to investigate biosphere-climate interactions and to track ecological response to climate variability and climate change. In turn, biological data could also be used for an independent validation of one aspect of climate data quality. All else being equal, more variance explained in biological data identifies the better climate data product. Here, we compare seven global precipitation time series products, including gauge-based datasets (CRU-TS, UDEL-TS, GPCC), re-analysis products (ERA5, CHELSA), a satellite-based dataset (PERSIANN) and a multi-source product that draws on gauge, re-analysis, and satellite data (MSWEP). We focus on precipitation variables, because they are more difficult to interpolate than temperature, and show larger divergence among gridded data products. Our validation is based on 20 years of remotely sensed vegetation greenness (MODIS-EVI) and 120 years of tree ring records from the International Tree Ring Data Bank (ITRDB). The results for the 20-year EVI based validation shows that all gauge and re-analysis data products performed similarly, but were outperformed by the multi-source MSWEP product, especially in regions with low weather station coverage, such as Africa. For analyzing long 120-year time-series, UDEL-TS showed superior performance prior to the 1940s, with especially large margins for northern Asia and the Himalayas region. For other regions, CRU-TS and GPCC could be recommended. We provide maps that can guide the best regional choice of climate product for research involving time series of biological response to historic climate variability and climate change.

ClimateEU, scale-free climate normals, historical time series, and future projections for Europe.

Interpolated climate data have become essential for regional or local climate change impact assessments and the development of climate change adaptation strategies. Here, we contribute an accessible, comprehensive database of interpolated climate data for Europe that includes monthly, annual, decadal, and 30-year normal climate data for the last 119 years (1901 to 2019) as well as multi-model CMIP5 climate change projections for the 21st century. The database also includes variables relevant for ecological research and infrastructure planning, comprising more than 20,000 climate grids that can be queried with a provided ClimateEU software package. In addition, 1 km and 2.5 km resolution gridded data generated by the software are available for download. The quality of ClimateEU estimates was evaluated against weather station data for a representative subset of climate variables. Dynamic environmental lapse rate algorithms employed by the software to generate scale-free climate variables for specific locations lead to improvements of 10 to 50% in accuracy compared to gridded data. We conclude with a discussion of applications and limitations of this database.

Chilling and Forcing From Cut Twigs-How to Simplify Phenological Experiments for Citizen Science.

Low-cost phenological experiments with cut twigs are increasingly used to study bud development in response to spring warming and photoperiod. However, a broader variety of species needs to be tackled and in particular the influence of insufficient winter chilling deserves more attention. Therefore, we investigated if and how chilling requirements can be efficiently investigated by cut twigs and how this low-tech approach could be successfully implemented as a citizen science or school project. We conducted an experiment on bud burst and leaf development of Corylus avellana L. twigs, with natural chilling outdoors on a shrub (S) and another chilling treatment as cut twigs in containers (C), and subsequent forcing indoors. Subsampling of the number of cutting dates and number of twigs was used to infer minimum required sample sizes. Apart from insufficiently chilled twigs, ~80% of the twigs (both S and C) reached leaf out. For multiple definitions of chilling and forcing, a negative exponential relationship was revealed between chilling and amount of forcing needed to reach certain developmental stages. At least 5 out of 15 cutting dates or alternatively half of the 10 twig repetitions, but especially those mirroring low chilling conditions, were needed to describe the chilling-forcing relationship with some degree of robustness. In addition, for cutting dates with long chilling, i.e., from January onwards, freshly cut twigs (S) required significantly more forcing to reach bud burst than twigs from containers (C), although the effect was small. In general, chilling conditions of mature shrubs were well captured by cut twigs, therefore opening the possibility of chilling through refrigeration. We conclude that experimental protocols as outlined here are feasible for citizen scientists, school projects, and science education, and would have the potential to advance the research field if carried out on a large scale. We provide an easy-to-use Shiny simulation app to enable citizen scientists to build up a bud development model based on their own experimental data and then simulate future phenological development with winter and/or spring warming. This may encourage them to further study other aspects of climate change and the impacts of climate change.

Outlier detection methods to improve the quality of citizen science data.

Citizen science involves public participation in research, usually through volunteer observation and reporting. Data collected by citizen scientists are a valuable resource in many fields of research that require long-term observations at large geographic scales. However, such data may be perceived as less accurate than those collected by trained professionals. Here, we analyze the quality of data from a plant phenology network, which tracks biological response to climate change. We apply five algorithms designed to detect outlier observations or inconsistent observers. These methods rely on different quantitative approaches, including residuals of linear models, correlations among observers, deviations from multivariate clusters, and percentile-based outlier removal. We evaluated these methods by comparing the resulting cleaned datasets in terms of time series means, spatial data coverage, and spatial autocorrelations after outlier removal. Spatial autocorrelations were used to determine the efficacy of outlier removal, as they are expected to increase if outliers and inconsistent observations are successfully removed. All data cleaning methods resulted in better Moran's I autocorrelation statistics, with percentile-based outlier removal and the clustering method showing the greatest improvement. Methods based on residual analysis of linear models had the strongest impact on the final bloom time mean estimates, but were among the weakest based on autocorrelation analysis. Removing entire sets of observations from potentially unreliable observers proved least effective. In conclusion, percentile-based outlier removal emerges as a simple and effective method to improve reliability of citizen science phenology observations.

Xylem Anomalies as Indicators of Maladaptation to Climate in Forest Trees: Implications for Assisted Migration.

Xylem anomalies that are caused by unusual climate events have long been used to aid cross-dating in tree ring research. Here, we analyzed a range of xylem anomalies in a 39-year-old common garden experiment of white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) in central Alberta, Canada, designed to investigate local adaptation. We extracted wood cores from trees representing 24 provenances covering much of the species range across the Canadian boreal forest. Using a double stain and light microscopy analysis, four xylem anomalies and their causes could be distinguished: (1) frost rings indicate issues with synchronizing the onset of growth with the start of the growing season, and were prevalent in young trees; (2) light rings represent thin cell walls caused by an insufficient growing season length, most prevalent in southern sources; (3) blue rings were caused by a failure to complete lignification of new wood due to an early end of the growing season; and (4) double rings represent density fluctuations due to drier than normal summers. Local provenances showed the least amount of xylem anomalies, indicating that they are correctly adapted to the environment in which they occur. In contrast, trees moved to the test site from other climate regions showed various types of xylem anomalies depending on their origin. In particular, populations originating from warmer regions showed an increased presence of latewood anomalies, consistent with a more extensive use of the growing season in the fall. We conclude that xylem anomalies may serve as a sensitive early indicator of maladaptation to climate before populations experience tree dieback or mortality. They may therefore be useful to monitor the health of natural populations, or to evaluate the success of assisted migration in reforestation to address climate change.

Publisher Correction: Northern forest tree populations are physiologically maladapted to drought.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Genetic parameters of growth and adaptive traits in aspen (Populus tremuloides): Implications for tree breeding in a warming world.

Aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) is a widespread commercial forest tree of high economic importance in western Canada and has been subject to tree improvement efforts over the past two decades. Such improvement programs rely on accurate estimates of the genetic gain in growth traits and correlated response in adaptive traits that are important for forest health. Here, we estimated genetic parameters in 10 progeny trials containing >30,000 trees with pedigree structures based on a partial factorial mating design that includes 60 half-sibs, 100 full-sib families and 1,400 clonally replicated genotypes. Estimated narrow-sense and broad-sense heritabilities were low for height and diameter (~0.2), but moderate for the dates of budbreak and leaf senescence (~0.4). Furthermore, estimated genetic correlations between growth and phenology were moderate to strong with tall trees being associated with early budbreak (r = -0.3) and late leaf senescence (r = -0.7). Survival was not compromised, but was positively associated with early budbreak or late leaf senescence, indicating that utilizing the growing season was more important for survival and growth than avoiding early fall or late spring frosts. These result suggests that populations are adapted to colder climate conditions and lag behind environmental conditions to which they are optimally adapted due to substantial climate warming observed over the last several decades for the study area.

Adaptive limitations of white spruce populations to drought imply vulnerability to climate change in its western range.

A cost-effective climate change adaptation strategy for the forestry sector is to move seed sources to more northern and higher elevation planting sites as part of ongoing reforestation programs. This is meant to match locally adapted populations with anticipated environments, but adaptive traits do not always show population differences suitable to mitigate climate change impacts. For white spruce, drought tolerance is a critical adaptive trait to prevent mortality and productivity losses. Here, we use a 40-year-old provenance experiment that has been exposed to severe drought periods in 1999 and 2002 to retrospectively investigate drought response and the adaptive capacity of white spruce populations across their boreal range. Relying on dendrochronological analysis under experimentally controlled environments, we evaluate population differences in resistance, resilience, and recovery to these extreme events. Results showed evidence for population differentiation in resistance and recovery parameters, but provenances conformed to approximately the same growth rates under drought conditions and had similar resilience metrics. The lack of populations with better growth rates under drought conditions is contrary to expectations for a wide-ranging species with distinct regional climates. Populations from the wettest environments in the northeastern boreal were surprisingly drought-tolerant, suggesting that these populations would readily resist water deficits projected for the 2080s, and supporting the view that northeastern Canada will provide a refugium for boreal species under climate change. The findings also suggest that white spruce is sensitive to growth reductions under climate change in the western boreal. The study highlights that population differentiation in adaptive capacity is species- and trait-specific, and we provide a counterexample for drought tolerance traits, where assisted migration prescriptions may be ineffective to mitigate climate change impacts. For resource managers and policy makers, we provide maps where planning for widespread declines of boreal white spruce forests may be unavoidable.

Northern forest tree populations are physiologically maladapted to drought.

Northern forests at the leading edge of their distributions may not show increased primary productivity under climate warming, being limited by climatic extremes such as drought. Looking beyond tree growth to underlying physiological mechanisms is fundamental for accurate predictions of forest responses to climate warming and drought stress. Within a 32-year genetic field trial, we analyze relative contributions of xylem plasticity and inferred stomatal response to drought tolerance in regional populations of a widespread conifer. Genetic adaptation leads to varying responses under drought. Trailing-edge tree populations produce fewer tracheids with thicker cell walls, characteristic of drought-tolerance. Stomatal response explains the moderate drought tolerance of tree populations in central areas of the species range. Growth loss of the northern population is linked to low stomatal responsiveness combined with the production of tracheids with thinner cell walls. Forests of the western boreal may therefore lack physiological adaptations necessary to tolerate drier conditions.

Survey to estimate the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in hospital patients in Germany by systematic HbA1c measurement upon admission.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this survey was to estimate the prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in hospitalised patients ≥55 years based on routine HbA1c measurement upon admission, using the diagnosis algorithm according to the German National Diabetes Care Guideline. DESIGN: Non-interventional survey. SETTING: Four German maximum care hospitals. POPULATION: Consecutive patients ≥55 years of age admitted to hospital. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Participating hospitals measured HbA1c upon admission and applied the algorithm for diagnosing T2DM per the clinical recommendations of the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and the German National Diabetes Care Guideline as part of the clinical routine and allocated patients to three diagnostic categories: T2DM, increased risk for T2DM, no T2DM. RESULTS: Between Oct 2014 and May 2015, the survey documented data from 6092 patients; the analyses included 5820 patients fulfilling validity criteria (95.5%). Of these, 1906 (32.7%) had a known history of T2DM. Among the 3914 remaining patients, 2181 had no T2DM (55.8%), 1180 an increased risk for T2DM (30.1%) and 553 unrecognised T2DM (14.1%; 95% CI: 13.1%-15.3%). The overall prevalence of known and unrecognised T2DM was 42.3% (95% CI: 41.0%-43.5%). Patients with previously unrecognised T2DM were admitted to hospital predominantly for cardiac disorders (21.9%), nervous system disorders such as cerebral infarction (15.0%) and infections/infestations (13.4%). CONCLUSIONS: This survey revealed an overall prevalence of known and unrecognised T2DM of more than 40%. Among patients with unrecognised T2DM on admission, the prevalence of T2DM was 14%. These data indicate that systematic documentation of T2DM in in-patients is clinically useful. Hospitals should consider using the diagnostic algorithm and to streamline pathways of care to secure adequate care considering patients' diabetic risk profiles, and to manage related additional costs.

Cold adaptation recorded in tree rings highlights risks associated with climate change and assisted migration.

With lengthening growing seasons but increased temperature variability under climate change, frost damage to plants may remain a risk and could be exacerbated by poleward planting of warm-adapted seed sources. Here, we study cold adaptation of tree populations in a wide-ranging coniferous species in western North America to inform limits to seed transfer. Using tree-ring signatures of cold damage from common garden trials designed to study genetic population differentiation, we find opposing geographic clines for spring frost and fall frost damage. Provenances from northern regions are sensitive to spring frosts, while the more productive provenances from central and southern regions are more susceptible to fall frosts. Transferring the southern, warm-adapted genotypes northward causes a significant loss of growth and a permanent rank change after a spring frost event. We conclude that cold adaptation should remain an important consideration when implementing seed transfers designed to mitigate harmful effects of climate change.

Adaptations of white spruce to climate: strong intraspecific differences in cold hardiness linked to survival.

Understanding local adaptation of tree populations to climate allows the development of assisted migration guidelines as a tool for forest managers to address climate change. Here, we study the relationship among climate, a wide range of physiological traits, and field performance of selected white spruce provenances originating from throughout the species range. Tree height, survival, cold hardiness, hydraulic, and wood anatomical traits were measured in a 32-year-old common garden trial, located in the center of the species range. Provenance performance included all combinations of high versus low survival and growth, with the most prevalent population differentiation for adaptive traits observed in cold hardiness. Cold hardiness showed a strong association with survival and was associated with cold winter temperatures at the site of seed origin. Tree height was mostly explained by the length of the growing season at the origin of the seed source. Although population differentiation was generally weak in wood anatomical and hydraulic traits, within-population variation was substantial in some traits, and a boundary analysis revealed that efficient water transport was associated with vulnerable xylem and low wood density, indicating that an optimal combination of high water transport efficiency and high cavitation resistance is not possible. Our results suggest that assisted migration prescriptions may be advantageous under warming climate, but pronounced trade-offs between survival and cold hardiness require a careful consideration of the distances of these transfers.

Post-glacial biogeography of trembling aspen inferred from habitat models and genetic variance in quantitative traits.

Using species distribution models and information on genetic structure and within-population variance observed in a series of common garden trials, we reconstructed a historical biogeography of trembling aspen in North America. We used an ensemble classifier modelling approach (RandomForest) to reconstruct palaeoclimatic habitat for the periods 21,000, 14,000, 11,000 and 6,000 years before present. Genetic structure and diversity in quantitative traits was evaluated in common garden trials with 43 aspen collections ranging from Minnesota to northern British Columbia. Our main goals were to examine potential recolonisation routes for aspen from southwestern, eastern and Beringian glacial refugia. We further examined if any refugium had stable habitat conditions where aspen clones may have survived multiple glaciations. Our palaeoclimatic habitat reconstructions indicate that aspen may have recolonised boreal Canada and Alaska from refugia in the eastern United States, with separate southwestern refugia for the Rocky Mountain regions. This is further supported by a southeast to northwest gradient of decreasing genetic variance in quantitative traits, a likely result of repeated founder effects. Stable habitat where aspen clones may have survived multiple glaciations was predicted in Mexico and the eastern United States, but not in the west where some of the largest aspen clones have been documented.

Species distribution models predict temporal but not spatial variation in forest growth.

Bioclimate envelope models have been widely used to illustrate the discrepancy between current species distributions and their potential habitat under climate change. However, the realism and correct interpretation of such projections has been the subject of considerable discussion. Here, we investigate whether climate suitability predictions correlate to tree growth, measured in permanent inventory plots and inferred from tree-ring records. We use the ensemble classifier RandomForest and species occurrence data from ~200,000 inventory plots to build species distribution models for four important European forestry species: Norway spruce, Scots pine, European beech, and pedunculate oak. We then correlate climate-based habitat suitability with volume measurements from ~50-year-old stands, available from ~11,000 inventory plots. Secondly, habitat projections based on annual historical climate are compared with ring width from ~300 tree-ring chronologies. Our working hypothesis is that habitat suitability projections from species distribution models should to some degree be associated with temporal or spatial variation in these growth records. We find that the habitat projections are uncorrelated with spatial growth records (inventory plot data), but they do predict interannual variation in tree-ring width, with an average correlation of .22. Correlation coefficients for individual chronologies range from values as high as .82 or as low as -.31. We conclude that tree responses to projected climate change are highly site-specific and that local suitability of a species for reforestation is difficult to predict. That said, projected increase or decrease in climatic suitability may be interpreted as an average expectation of increased or reduced growth over larger geographic scales.

Scale-dependent complementarity of climatic velocity and environmental diversity for identifying priority areas for conservation under climate change.

As most regions of the earth transition to altered climatic conditions, new methods are needed to identify refugia and other areas whose conservation would facilitate persistence of biodiversity under climate change. We compared several common approaches to conservation planning focused on climate resilience over a broad range of ecological settings across North America and evaluated how commonalities in the priority areas identified by different methods varied with regional context and spatial scale. Our results indicate that priority areas based on different environmental diversity metrics differed substantially from each other and from priorities based on spatiotemporal metrics such as climatic velocity. Refugia identified by diversity or velocity metrics were not strongly associated with the current protected area system, suggesting the need for additional conservation measures including protection of refugia. Despite the inherent uncertainties in predicting future climate, we found that variation among climatic velocities derived from different general circulation models and emissions pathways was less than the variation among the suite of environmental diversity metrics. To address uncertainty created by this variation, planners can combine priorities identified by alternative metrics at a single resolution and downweight areas of high variation between metrics. Alternately, coarse-resolution velocity metrics can be combined with fine-resolution diversity metrics in order to leverage the respective strengths of the two groups of metrics as tools for identification of potential macro- and microrefugia that in combination maximize both transient and long-term resilience to climate change. Planners should compare and integrate approaches that span a range of model complexity and spatial scale to match the range of ecological and physical processes influencing persistence of biodiversity and identify a conservation network resilient to threats operating at multiple scales.

A heat wave during leaf expansion severely reduces productivity and modifies seasonal growth patterns in a northern hardwood forest.

A useful approach to monitor tree response to climate change and environmental extremes is the recording of long-term time series of stem radial variations obtained with precision dendrometers. Here, we study the impact of environmental stress on seasonal growth dynamics and productivity of yellow birch (Betula alleghaniensis Britton) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) in the Great Lakes, St Lawrence forest region of Ontario. Specifically, we research the effects of a spring heat wave in 2010, and a summer drought in 2012 that occurred during the 2005­14 study period. We evaluated both growth phenology (onset, cessation, duration of radial growth, time of maximum daily growth rate) and productivity (monthly and seasonal average growth rates, maximum daily growth rate, tree-ring width) and tested for differences and interactions among species and years. Productivity of sugar maple was drastically compromised by a 3-day spring heat wave in 2010 as indicated by low growth rates, very early growth cessation and a lagged growth onset in the following year. Sugar maple also responded more sensitively than yellow birch to a prolonged drought period in July 2012, but final tree-ring width was not significantly reduced due to positive responses to above-average temperatures in the preceding spring. We conclude that sugar maple, a species that currently dominates northern hardwood forests, is vulnerable to heat wave disturbances during leaf expansion, which might occur more frequently under anticipated climate change.

Convergent local adaptation to climate in distantly related conifers.

When confronted with an adaptive challenge, such as extreme temperature, closely related species frequently evolve similar phenotypes using the same genes. Although such repeated evolution is thought to be less likely in highly polygenic traits and distantly related species, this has not been tested at the genome scale. We performed a population genomic study of convergent local adaptation among two distantly related species, lodgepole pine and interior spruce. We identified a suite of 47 genes, enriched for duplicated genes, with variants associated with spatial variation in temperature or cold hardiness in both species, providing evidence of convergent local adaptation despite 140 million years of separate evolution. These results show that adaptation to climate can be genetically constrained, with certain key genes playing nonredundant roles.

Locally Downscaled and Spatially Customizable Climate Data for Historical and Future Periods for North America.

Large volumes of gridded climate data have become available in recent years including interpolated historical data from weather stations and future predictions from general circulation models. These datasets, however, are at various spatial resolutions that need to be converted to scales meaningful for applications such as climate change risk and impact assessments or sample-based ecological research. Extracting climate data for specific locations from large datasets is not a trivial task and typically requires advanced GIS and data management skills. In this study, we developed a software package, ClimateNA, that facilitates this task and provides a user-friendly interface suitable for resource managers and decision makers as well as scientists. The software locally downscales historical and future monthly climate data layers into scale-free point estimates of climate values for the entire North American continent. The software also calculates a large number of biologically relevant climate variables that are usually derived from daily weather data. ClimateNA covers 1) 104 years of historical data (1901-2014) in monthly, annual, decadal and 30-year time steps; 2) three paleoclimatic periods (Last Glacial Maximum, Mid Holocene and Last Millennium); 3) three future periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s); and 4) annual time-series of model projections for 2011-2100. Multiple general circulation models (GCMs) were included for both paleo and future periods, and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and 8.5) were chosen for future climate data.

Adaptation of lodgepole pine and interior spruce to climate: implications for reforestation in a warming world.

We investigated adaptation to climate in populations of two widespread tree species across a range of contrasting environments in western Canada. In a series of common garden experiments, bud phenology, cold hardiness, and seedling growth traits were assessed for 254 populations in the interior spruce complex (Picea glauca, P. engelmannii, and their hybrids) and for 281 populations of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta). Complex multitrait adaptations to different ecological regions such as boreal, montane, coastal, and arid environments accounted for 15-20% of the total variance. This population differentiation could be directly linked to climate variables through multivariate regression tree analysis. Our results suggest that adaptation to climate does not always correspond linearly to temperature gradients. For example, opposite trait values (e.g., early versus late budbreak) may be found in response to apparently similar cold environments (e.g., boreal and montane). Climate change adaptation strategies may therefore not always be possible through a simple shift of seed sources along environmental gradients. For the two species in this study, we identified a relatively small number of uniquely adapted populations (11 for interior spruce and nine for lodgepole pine) that may be used to manage adaptive variation under current and expected future climates.