Subject(s)
Engineering/ethics , Engineering/methods , Ethics, Research , Geography/methods , Global Warming/prevention & control , Meteorology/methods , Research , Social Control, Formal , Disclosure , Engineering/economics , Engineering/standards , Geography/economics , Geography/ethics , Global Warming/economics , Meteorology/economics , Meteorology/ethics , Ownership/economics , Politics , Research/economics , Research Personnel/economics , Research Personnel/ethics , Social Control, Formal/methods , WorkforceABSTRACT
With weakening prospects of prompt mitigation, it is increasingly likely that the world will experience 4°C and more of global warming. In such a world, adaptation decisions that have long lead times or that have implications playing out over many decades become more uncertain and complex. Adapting to global warming of 4°C cannot be seen as a mere extrapolation of adaptation to 2°C; it will be a more substantial, continuous and transformative process. However, a variety of psychological, social and institutional barriers to adaptation are exacerbated by uncertainty and long timeframes, with the danger of immobilizing decision-makers. In this paper, we show how complexity and uncertainty can be reduced by a systematic approach to categorizing the interactions between decision lifetime, the type of uncertainty in the relevant drivers of change and the nature of adaptation response options. We synthesize a number of issues previously raised in the literature to link the categories of interactions to a variety of risk-management strategies and tactics. Such application could help to break down some barriers to adaptation and both simplify and better target adaptation decision-making. The approach needs to be tested and adopted rapidly.