Smokers' expectations to quit smoking.

We investigate the effectiveness of different smoking policies on smokers' expectations to quit smoking using a choice experiment on a sample of smokers identified within the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project. Our results indicate that restricted availability, increased cigarette prices, cessation subsidies and regulations at restaurants, bars and cafes increase the expected probability of smoking cessation. Regulations at work places do not seem to have any effect. The results also show the significant role of limited self-control; smokers who have the intent to quit smoking are more likely to quit smoking if a stricter regulation is implemented. Further, smokers who have received advice from their children to quit smoking or who perceive the health risks as considerable, are more likely to expect to quit smoking.

Restaurant owner perceptions of the effects of a smoking ban.

In this paper business owner expectations regarding revenue changes due to a general smoking ban are analyzed using a survey mailed out to all restaurants, bars, cafés and nightclubs in Gothenburg, Sweden. A reasonable interpretation of the survey responses is that as many as 74% of the establishments do not expect to be severely hurt by a general smoking ban applying to the entire restaurant sector. The econometric results show that the owners are more likely to expect a decrease in revenues the larger their share of smoking customers. Moreover, establishments that are smoke-free are less likely to expect negative economic effects compared to those that currently allow smoking. Also, establishments with a non-smoking section are less likely to expect negative economic effects from a general smoking ban. No strong effect of the type of establishment (café, bar, or restaurant) on expected changes in revenues is detected, although establishments with late night hours are more likely to expect financial losses.

The value of risk-free cigarettes--do smokers underestimate the risk?

The health risk of smoking is valued using the contingent valuation method, applied to a Swedish sample of smokers. The respondents were asked to put a value on newly developed cigarettes with no associated health risks. The average additional willingness to pay for the new cigarettes is estimated to be between 10 and 41 SEK per pack, where the variation is due to statistical method, discounting, and whether the open-ended or closed-ended question format is used. Using medical data on life shortening effects of smoking, the results indicate rather low values put on a lost life-year, compared to most existing estimates based on other methods. This may indicate that smokers do underestimate the health risk of smoking. There is also initial optimism-bias regarding people's own ability to quit smoking at will. However, there are remaining methodological questions and we found little or no sensitivity to scope.