Collaborative Modeling to Compare Different Breast Cancer Screening Strategies: A Decision Analysis for the US Preventive Services Task Force.

Importance: The effects of breast cancer incidence changes and advances in screening and treatment on outcomes of different screening strategies are not well known. Objective: To estimate outcomes of various mammography screening strategies. Design, Setting, and Population: Comparison of outcomes using 6 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models and national data on breast cancer incidence, mammography performance, treatment effects, and other-cause mortality in US women without previous cancer diagnoses. Exposures: Thirty-six screening strategies with varying start ages (40, 45, 50 years) and stop ages (74, 79 years) with digital mammography or digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) annually, biennially, or a combination of intervals. Strategies were evaluated for all women and for Black women, assuming 100% screening adherence and "real-world" treatment. Main Outcomes and Measures: Estimated lifetime benefits (breast cancer deaths averted, percent reduction in breast cancer mortality, life-years gained), harms (false-positive recalls, benign biopsies, overdiagnosis), and number of mammograms per 1000 women. Results: Biennial screening with DBT starting at age 40, 45, or 50 years until age 74 years averted a median of 8.2, 7.5, or 6.7 breast cancer deaths per 1000 women screened, respectively, vs no screening. Biennial DBT screening at age 40 to 74 years (vs no screening) was associated with a 30.0% breast cancer mortality reduction, 1376 false-positive recalls, and 14 overdiagnosed cases per 1000 women screened. Digital mammography screening benefits were similar to those for DBT but had more false-positive recalls. Annual screening increased benefits but resulted in more false-positive recalls and overdiagnosed cases. Benefit-to-harm ratios of continuing screening until age 79 years were similar or superior to stopping at age 74. In all strategies, women with higher-than-average breast cancer risk, higher breast density, and lower comorbidity level experienced greater screening benefits than other groups. Annual screening of Black women from age 40 to 49 years with biennial screening thereafter reduced breast cancer mortality disparities while maintaining similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs as for all women. Conclusions: This modeling analysis suggests that biennial mammography screening starting at age 40 years reduces breast cancer mortality and increases life-years gained per mammogram. More intensive screening for women with greater risk of breast cancer diagnosis or death can maintain similar benefit-to-harm trade-offs and reduce mortality disparities.

Survival of the Hmong population diagnosed with colon and rectal cancers in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The Hmong population constitutes an independent ethnic group historically dispersed throughout Southeast Asia; fallout from the Vietnam War led to their forced migration to the United States as refugees. This study seeks to investigate characteristics of the Hmong population diagnosed with in colorectal cancer (CRC) as well as survival within this population. METHODS: Cases of colon and rectal adenocarcinoma diagnosed between 2004 and 2017 were identified from the National Cancer Database (NCDB). Summary statistics of demographic, clinical, socioeconomic, and treatment variables were generated with emphasis on age and stage at the time of diagnosis. Cox-proportional hazard models were constructed for survival analysis. RESULTS: Of 881,243 total CRC cases within the NCDB, 120 were classified as Hmong. The average age of Hmong individuals at diagnosis was 58.9 years compared 68.7 years for Non-Hispanic White (NHW) individuals (p < 0.01). The distribution of analytic stage differed between the Hmong population and the reference NHW population, with 61.8% of Hmong individuals compared to 45.8% of NHW individuals with known stage being diagnosed at stage III or IV CRC compared to 0, I, or II (p = 0.001). However, there was no difference in OS when adjusting for potential confounders (HR 1.00 [0.77-1.33]; p = 0.998). CONCLUSIONS: Hmong individuals are nearly a decade younger at the time of diagnosis of CRC compared to the NHW individuals. However, these data do not suggest an association between Hmong ethnicity and overall survival, when compared to the NHW population.

Analysis of Breast Cancer Mortality in the US-1975 to 2019.

Importance: Breast cancer mortality in the US declined between 1975 and 2019. The association of changes in metastatic breast cancer treatment with improved breast cancer mortality is unclear. Objective: To simulate the relative associations of breast cancer screening, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer with improved breast cancer mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: Using aggregated observational and clinical trial data on the dissemination and effects of screening and treatment, 4 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) models simulated US breast cancer mortality rates. Death due to breast cancer, overall and by estrogen receptor and ERBB2 (formerly HER2) status, among women aged 30 to 79 years in the US from 1975 to 2019 was simulated. Exposures: Screening mammography, treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and treatment of metastatic breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures: Model-estimated age-adjusted breast cancer mortality rate associated with screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment relative to the absence of these exposures was assessed, as was model-estimated median survival after breast cancer metastatic recurrence. Results: The breast cancer mortality rate in the US (age adjusted) was 48/100 000 women in 1975 and 27/100 000 women in 2019. In 2019, the combination of screening, stage I to III treatment, and metastatic treatment was associated with a 58% reduction (model range, 55%-61%) in breast cancer mortality. Of this reduction, 29% (model range, 19%-33%) was associated with treatment of metastatic breast cancer, 47% (model range, 35%-60%) with treatment of stage I to III breast cancer, and 25% (model range, 21%-33%) with mammography screening. Based on simulations, the greatest change in survival after metastatic recurrence occurred between 2000 and 2019, from 1.9 years (model range, 1.0-2.7 years) to 3.2 years (model range, 2.0-4.9 years). Median survival for estrogen receptor (ER)-positive/ERBB2-positive breast cancer improved by 2.5 years (model range, 2.0-3.4 years), whereas median survival for ER-/ERBB2- breast cancer improved by 0.5 years (model range, 0.3-0.8 years). Conclusions and Relevance: According to 4 simulation models, breast cancer screening and treatment in 2019 were associated with a 58% reduction in US breast cancer mortality compared with interventions in 1975. Simulations suggested that treatment for stage I to III breast cancer was associated with approximately 47% of the mortality reduction, whereas treatment for metastatic breast cancer was associated with 29% of the reduction and screening with 25% of the reduction.

Population simulation modeling of disparities in US breast cancer mortality.

BACKGROUND: Populations of African American or Black women have persistently higher breast cancer mortality than the overall US population, despite having slightly lower age-adjusted incidence. METHODS: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation teams modeled cancer mortality disparities between Black female populations and the overall US population. Model inputs used racial group-specific data from clinical trials, national registries, nationally representative surveys, and observational studies. Analyses began with cancer mortality in the overall population and sequentially replaced parameters for Black populations to quantify the percentage of modeled breast cancer morality disparities attributable to differences in demographics, incidence, access to screening and treatment, and variation in tumor biology and response to therapy. RESULTS: Results were similar across the 3 models. In 2019, racial differences in incidence and competing mortality accounted for a net ‒1% of mortality disparities, while tumor subtype and stage distributions accounted for a mean of 20% (range across models = 13%-24%), and screening accounted for a mean of 3% (range = 3%-4%) of the modeled mortality disparities. Treatment parameters accounted for the majority of modeled mortality disparities: mean = 17% (range = 16%-19%) for treatment initiation and mean = 61% (range = 57%-63%) for real-world effectiveness. CONCLUSION: Our model results suggest that changes in policies that target improvements in treatment access could increase breast cancer equity. The findings also highlight that efforts must extend beyond policies targeting equity in treatment initiation to include high-quality treatment completion. This research will facilitate future modeling to test the effects of different specific policy changes on mortality disparities.

Change in alcohol consumption during the Covid-19 pandemic and associations with mental health and financial hardship: results from a survey of Wisconsin patients with cancer.

PURPOSE: Alcohol consumption increases health risks for patients with cancer. The Covid-19 pandemic may have affected drinking habits for these individuals. We surveyed patients with cancer to examine whether changes in drinking habits were related to mental health or financial effects of the pandemic. METHODS: From October 2020 to April 2021, adult patients (age 18-80 years at diagnosis) treated for cancer in southcentral Wisconsin were invited to complete a survey. Age-adjusted percentages for history of anxiety or depression, emotional distress, and financial impacts of Covid-19 overall and by change in alcohol consumption (non-drinker, stable, decreased, or increased) were obtained via logistic regression. RESULTS: In total, 1,875 patients were included in the analysis (median age 64, range 19-87 years), including 9% who increased and 23% who decreased drinking. Compared to stable drinkers (32% of sample), a higher proportion of participants who increased drinking alcohol also reported anxiety or depression (45% vs. 26%), moderate to severe emotional distress (61% vs. 37%) and viewing Covid-19 as a threat to their community (67% vs. 55%). Decreased (vs. stable) drinking was associated with higher prevalence of depression or anxiety diagnosis, emotional distress, and negative financial impacts of the pandemic. Compared to non-drinkers (36% of sample), participants who increased drinking were more likely to report emotional distress (61% vs. 48%). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with cancer from Wisconsin who changed their alcohol consumption during the Covid-19 pandemic were more likely to report poor mental health including anxiety, depression, and emotional distress than persons whose alcohol consumption was stable. IMPLICATIONS FOR CANCER SURVIVORS: Clinicians working with cancer survivors should be aware of the link between poor mental health and increased alcohol consumption and be prepared to offer guidance or referrals to counseling, as needed.

Time-specific impact of mono-benzyl phthalate (MBzP) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) on breast density of a Chilean adolescent Cohort.

INTRODUCTION: High mammographic density is among the strongest and most established predictors for breast cancer risk. Puberty, the period during which breasts undergo exponential mammary growth, is considered one of the critical stages of breast development for environmental exposures. Benzylbutyl phthalate (BBP) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) are pervasive endocrine disrupting chemicals that may increase hormone-sensitive cancers. Evaluating the potential impact of BBP and PFOA exposure on pubertal breast density is important to our understanding of early-life environmental influences on breast cancer etiology. OBJECTIVE: To prospectively assess the effect of biomarker concentrations of monobenzyl phthalate (MBzP) and PFOA at specific pubertal window of susceptibility (WOS) on adolescent breast density. METHOD: This study included 376 Chilean girls from the Growth and Obesity Cohort Study with data collection at four timepoints: Tanner breast stages 1 (B1) and 4 (B4), 1- year post- menarche (1YPM) and 2-years post-menarche (2YPM). Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used to assess the absolute fibroglandular volume (FGV) and percent breast density (%FGV) at 2YPM. We used concentrations of PFOA in serum and MBzP in urine as an index of exposure to PFOA and BBP, respectively. Parametric G-formula was used to estimate the time-specific effects of MBzP and PFOA on breast density. The models included body fat percentage as a time-varying confounder and age, birthweight, age at menarche, and maternal education as fixed covariates. RESULTS: A doubling of serum PFOA concentration at B4 resulted in a non-significant increase in absolute FGV (ß:11.25, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.28, 23.49)), while a doubling of PFOA concentration at 1YPM resulted in a decrease in % FGV (ß:-4.61, 95% CI: -7.45, -1.78). We observed no associations between urine MBzP and breast density measures. CONCLUSION: In this cohort of Latina girls, PFOA serum concentrations corresponded to a decrease in % FGV. No effect was observed between MBzP and breast density measures across pubertal WOS.

Mortality risk and physical activity across the lifespan in endometrial cancer survivors.

PURPOSE: Physical activity (pre- and post-diagnosis) has been studied in prevention and survivorship contexts for endometrial cancer. However, the association of physical activity (PA) across the lifespan on mortality risk among endometrial cancer survivors is understudied. The study's objective was to identify the association of lifetime PA on mortality risk in endometrial cancer survivors. METHODS: Seven hundred forty-five endometrial cancer survivors drawn from a population-based cancer registry (diagnosed between 1991 and 1994) reported the frequency (sessions/week) of moderate- and vigorous intensity physical activity (MVPA) at age 12, age 20, and 5 years pre-interview (post-diagnosis). Cox proportional hazards were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals for the association between PA, all-cause, and cardiovascular disease mortality as assessed in 2016. MVPA was modeled using natural cubic splines. RESULTS: Diagnosis age, body mass index, and smoking (pack-years) were each positively associated with increased all-cause mortality risk. Those who did one session of MVPA 5 years pre-interview had a lower mortality risk (HR 0.61; 95% CI 0.41-0.92) compared to those with no MVPA. Those reporting one session of MVPA was similarly observed at age 12 (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.86-1.06) and at age 20 (HR 0.87; 95% CI 0.65-1.16). CONCLUSION: Those who participated in PA, compared to those who did not, in the 5 years before diagnosis had a lower mortality risk. While PA was not independently protective against mortality risk at ages 12 or 20, PA is still important for endometrial cancer survivors for other non-mortality outcomes.

Breast Cancer Screening Among Childhood Cancer Survivors Treated Without Chest Radiation: Clinical Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Early initiation of breast cancer screening is recommended for high-risk women, including survivors of childhood cancer treated with chest radiation. Recent studies suggest that female survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma treated without chest radiation are also at elevated early onset breast cancer risk. However, the potential clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness of early breast cancer screening among these women are uncertain. METHODS: Using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, we adapted 2 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network simulation models to reflect the elevated risks of breast cancer and competing mortality among leukemia and sarcoma survivors. Costs and utility weights were based on published studies and databases. Outcomes included breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive screening results, benign biopsies, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: In the absence of screening, the lifetime risk of dying from breast cancer among survivors was 6.8% to 7.0% across models. Early initiation of annual mammography with breast magnetic resonance imaging screening between ages 25 and 40 years would avert 52.6% to 64.3% of breast cancer deaths. When costs and quality-of-life impacts were considered, screening starting at age 40 years was the only strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio below the $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained cost-effectiveness threshold ($27 680 to $44 380 per QALY gained across models). CONCLUSIONS: Among survivors of childhood leukemia or sarcoma, early initiation of breast cancer screening at age 40 years may reduce breast cancer deaths by half and is cost-effective. These findings could help inform screening guidelines for survivors treated without chest radiation.

Does margin width impact breast cancer recurrence rates in women with breast conserving surgery for ductal carcinoma in situ?

PURPOSE: Controversy remains regarding the optimal margin width for patients with ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) who undergo breast conserving surgery (BCS). METHODS: Women with a primary DCIS diagnosis were enrolled in a statewide population-based cohort from 1997 to 2006. Patients were surveyed every two years with follow-up data available through 2016. Surgical pathology reports were collected for 559 participants following breast conserving surgery. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models evaluated relationships between locoregional recurrence (LRR) and margin width in the presence or absence of adjuvant radiation therapy while controlling for age, menopausal status and duration of endocrine therapy use. RESULTS: The majority of women in this study were over 50yo (74%), 34% had high grade disease, and 77% underwent radiation. The overall LRR rate was 12%. A LRR occurred in 46 women who had radiation (11%) and 23 women who did not undergo radiation (19%). Univariate analysis identified smaller margin width, younger age, premenopausal status, no radiotherapy, and shorter endocrine therapy use associated with LRR. Multivariable models demonstrated that close margins (< 2 mm) were associated with an increased risk of recurrence when compared to margins ≥ 2 mm in width whether women received radiation (HR 1.98 CI 0.87-4.54) or not (HR 1.32 CI 0.27-6.49), but confidence intervals were wide. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, patients with DCIS and close margins were less likely to experience recurrence after routine re-excision to margins greater than 2 mm.

A population-based study of causes of death after endometrial cancer according to major risk factors.

OBJECTIVE: To identify the most common causes of death and potentially modifiable risk factors in endometrial cancer patients. METHODS: 745 women diagnosed with incident endometrial cancer were enrolled in a population-based study from 1991 to 1994. Participants completed structured interviews about 1 year after diagnosis. Study files were linked with the National Death Index to identify dates and causes of death through 2016. Proportional hazards regression was used to estimate hazard rate ratios for cause of death adjusting for age and stage of disease. Hazard ratios were also examined according to comorbidities. RESULTS: Of the 745 women, 450 were deceased after a median of 19.9 years. The two most common causes of death were cardiovascular disease (N = 145, 32%) and any cancer (N = 135, 30%), with only 10% of women dying from endometrial cancer (N = 46). Obesity, diabetes and smoking increased risk of all-cause mortality (HRR 1.77, 95%CI 1.36-2.31; HRR 1.74, 95%CI 1.34-2.27; HRR 1.59, 95%CI 1.16-2.17). Diabetes also increased risk of cardiovascular disease-specific mortality (HRR 1.98, 95%CI 1.38-3.08), but not endometrial cancer mortality (HRR 0.55, 95%CI 0.21-1.48). Neither obesity nor smoking was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease-specific mortality (HRR 1.46, 95%CI 0.92-2.32; HRR 1.21, 95%CI 0.67-2.18) nor endometrial-cancer specific mortality (HRR 1.81, 95%CI 0.83-3.93; HRR 0.61, 95%CI 0.17-2.15). CONCLUSIONS: Endometrial cancer patients were 3 times more likely to die of cardiovascular disease than endometrial cancer. Obesity, smoking and diabetes increase the risk of death in these patients and are potentially modifiable. Clinical trials should be developed that incorporate counseling regarding these risk factors into survivorship care to determine impact on mortality.

Trade-Offs Between Harms and Benefits of Different Breast Cancer Screening Intervals Among Low-Risk Women.

BACKGROUND: A paucity of research addresses breast cancer screening strategies for women at lower-than-average breast cancer risk. The aim of this study was to examine screening harms and benefits among women aged 50-74 years at lower-than-average breast cancer risk by breast density. METHODS: Three well-established, validated Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network models were used to estimate the lifetime benefits and harms of different screening scenarios, varying by screening interval (biennial, triennial). Breast cancer deaths averted, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years gained, false-positives, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis were assessed by relative risk (RR) level (0.6, 0.7, 0.85, 1 [average risk]) and breast density category, for US women born in 1970. RESULTS: Screening benefits decreased proportionally with decreasing risk and with lower breast density. False-positives, unnecessary biopsies, and the percentage overdiagnosis also varied substantially by breast density category; false-positives and unnecessary biopsies were highest in the heterogeneously dense category. For women with fatty or scattered fibroglandular breast density and a relative risk of no more than 0.85, the additional deaths averted and life-years gained were small with biennial vs triennial screening. For these groups, undergoing 4 additional screens (screening biennially [13 screens] vs triennially [9 screens]) averted no more than 1 additional breast cancer death and gained no more than 16 life-years and no more than 10 quality-adjusted life-years per 1000 women but resulted in up to 232 more false-positives per 1000 women. CONCLUSION: Triennial screening from age 50 to 74 years may be a reasonable screening strategy for women with lower-than-average breast cancer risk and fatty or scattered fibroglandular breast density.

Clinical Benefits, Harms, and Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening for Survivors of Childhood Cancer Treated With Chest Radiation : A Comparative Modeling Study.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance with annual mammography and breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is recommended for female survivors of childhood cancer treated with chest radiation, yet benefits, harms, and costs are uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To compare the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of breast cancer screening strategies in childhood cancer survivors. DESIGN: Collaborative simulation modeling using 2 Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network breast cancer models. DATA SOURCES: Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and published data. TARGET POPULATION: Women aged 20 years with a history of chest radiotherapy. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Payer. INTERVENTION: Annual MRI with or without mammography, starting at age 25, 30, or 35 years. OUTCOME MEASURES: Breast cancer deaths averted, false-positive screening results, benign biopsy results, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: Lifetime breast cancer mortality risk without screening was 10% to 11% across models. Compared with no screening, starting at age 25 years, annual mammography with MRI averted the most deaths (56% to 71%) and annual MRI (without mammography) averted 56% to 62%. Both strategies had the most screening tests, false-positive screening results, and benign biopsy results. For an ICER threshold of less than $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, screening beginning at age 30 years was preferred. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Assuming lower screening performance, the benefit of adding mammography to MRI increased in both models, although the conclusions about preferred starting age remained unchanged. LIMITATION: Elevated breast cancer risk was based on survivors diagnosed with childhood cancer between 1970 and 1986. CONCLUSION: Early initiation (at ages 25 to 30 years) of annual breast cancer screening with MRI, with or without mammography, might reduce breast cancer mortality by half or more in survivors of childhood cancer. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: American Cancer Society and National Institutes of Health.

Evaluation of Long-Term Satisfaction with Breast Surgery in Patients Treated for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: A Population-Based Longitudinal Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Breast-conserving surgery (BCS) and mastectomy have equivalent survival for ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS), allowing patients to participate in selecting a personalized surgical option; however, this decision-making role can increase patient anxiety. Data evaluating patient satisfaction with their decision to undergo BCS versus mastectomy for the treatment of DCIS are limited. METHODS: Women with DCIS were enrolled in a population-based, state-wide cohort from 1997 to 2006. Participants were surveyed about their satisfaction with their surgical and reconstruction decisions. Quality-of-life (QoL) evaluations were performed with biennial follow-up surveys though 2016. Multivariable logistic regression modeling examined the relationship between type of surgery and reconstruction with patient satisfaction. RESULTS: Overall, 1537 women were surveyed, on average, 2.9 years following DCIS diagnosis. Over 90% reported satisfaction with their treatment decision regardless of surgery type. Women who underwent mastectomy with reconstruction were more likely to report lower levels of satisfaction than women who underwent BCS (odds ratio [OR] 2.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18-7.51, p < 0.01). However, over 80% of women who underwent mastectomies reported satisfaction with their reconstruction decision. Women without reconstruction had the highest levels of satisfaction, while women with implants were more likely to be dissatisfied (implant + autologous: OR 2.77, 95% CI 1.24-6.24; implant alone: OR 4.02, 95% CI 1.947-8.34, p ≤ 0.01). QoL scores were not associated with differences in surgical or reconstruction satisfaction at 5, 10, and 15 years following DCIS diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Women undergoing surgery for DCIS express satisfaction with their treatment decisions. Following mastectomy, most women are satisfied with their reconstruction decision, including women who did not undergo reconstruction.

Long-Term Outcomes and Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Screening With Digital Breast Tomosynthesis in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) is increasingly being used for routine breast cancer screening. We projected the long-term impact and cost-effectiveness of DBT compared to conventional digital mammography (DM) for breast cancer screening in the United States. METHODS: Three Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network breast cancer models simulated US women ages 40 years and older undergoing breast cancer screening with either DBT or DM starting in 2011 and continuing for the lifetime of the cohort. Screening performance estimates were based on observational data; in an alternative scenario, we assumed 4% higher sensitivity for DBT. Analyses used federal payer perspective; costs and utilities were discounted at 3% annually. Outcomes included breast cancer deaths, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), false-positive examinations, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). RESULTS: Compared to DM, DBT screening resulted in a slight reduction in breast cancer deaths (range across models 0-0.21 per 1000 women), small increase in QALYs (1.97-3.27 per 1000 women), and a 24-28% reduction in false-positive exams (237-268 per 1000 women) relative to DM. ICERs ranged from $195 026 to $270 135 per QALY for DBT relative to DM. When assuming 4% higher DBT sensitivity, ICERs decreased to $130 533-$156 624 per QALY. ICERs were sensitive to DBT costs, decreasing to $78 731 to $168 883 and $52 918 to $118 048 when the additional cost of DBT was reduced to $36 and $26 (from baseline of $56), respectively. CONCLUSION: DBT reduces false-positive exams while achieving similar or slightly improved health benefits. At current reimbursement rates, the additional costs of DBT screening are likely high relative to the benefits gained; however, DBT could be cost-effective at lower screening costs.

Age-based versus Risk-based Mammography Screening in Women 40-49 Years Old: A Cross-sectional Study.

Background Risk-based screening in women 40-49 years old has not been evaluated in routine screening mammography practice. Purpose To use a cross-sectional study design to compare the trade-offs of risk-based and age-based screening for women 45 years of age or older to determine short-term outcomes. Materials and Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was performed by using a database of 20 539 prospectively interpreted consecutive digital screening mammograms in 10 280 average-risk women aged 40-49 years who were screened at an academic medical center between January 1, 2006, and December 31, 2013. Two hypothetical screening scenarios were compared: an age-based (≥45 years) scenario versus a risk-based (a 5-year risk of breast cancer greater than that of an average 50-year-old) scenario. Risk factors for risk-based screening included family history, race, age, prior breast biopsy, and breast density. Outcomes included breast cancers detected at mammography, false-positive mammograms, and benign biopsy findings. Short-term outcomes were compared by using the χ2 test. Results The screening population included 71 148 screening mammograms in 24 928 women with a mean age of 55.5 years ± 8.9 (standard deviation) (age range, 40-74 years). In women 40-49 years old, usual care included 50 screening-detected cancers, 1787 false-positive mammograms, and 384 benign biopsy results. The age-based (≥45 years) screening strategy revealed more cancers than did the risk-based strategy (34 [68%] vs 13 [26%] of 50; P < .001), while prompting more false-positive mammograms (899 [50.3%] vs 216 [12.1%] of 1787; P < .001) and benign biopsy results (175 [45.6%] vs 49 [12.8%] of 384; P < .001). The risk-based strategy demonstrated low levels of eligibility (few screenings) in the 40-44-year age group. Differences in outcomes in the 45-49-year age group explained the overall hypothetical screening strategy differences. Conclusion Risk-based screening for women 40-49 years old includes few women in the 40-44-year age range. Significant trade-offs in the 45-49-year age group explain the overall difference between hypothetical screening scenarios, both of which reduce the benefits as well as the harms of mammography for women 40-49 years old. © RSNA, 2019 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Joe and Hayward in this issue.

Variation in coordination of care reported by breast cancer patients according to health literacy.

BACKGROUND: Health literacy is the ability to perform basic reading and numerical tasks to function in the healthcare environment. The purpose of this study is to describe how health literacy is related to perceived coordination of care reported by breast cancer patients. METHODS: Data were retrieved from the Patient-Centered Outcomes Research Institute-sponsored "Share Thoughts on Breast Cancer" Study including demographic factors, perceived care coordination and responsiveness of care, and self-reported health literacy obtained from a mailed survey completed by 62% of eligible breast cancer survivors (N = 1221). Multivariable analysis of variance was used to characterize the association between presence of a single healthcare professional that coordinated care ("care coordinator") and perceived care coordination, stratified by health literacy level. RESULTS: Health literacy was classified as low in 24% of patients, medium in 34%, and high in 42%. Women with high health literacy scores were more likely to report non-Hispanic white race/ethnicity, private insurance, higher education and income, and fewer comorbidities (all p < 0.001). The presence of a care coordinator was associated with 17.1% higher perceived care coordination scores among women with low health literacy when compared to those without a care coordinator, whereas a coordinator modestly improved perceived care coordination among breast cancer survivors with medium (6.9%) and high (6.2%) health literacy. CONCLUSION: The use of a single designated care coordinator may have a strong influence on care coordination in patients with lower levels of health literacy.

Contribution of Breast Cancer to Overall Mortality for US Women.

OBJECTIVE: Breast cancer simulation models must take changing mortality rates into account to evaluate the potential impact of cancer control interventions. We estimated mortality rates due to breast cancer and all other causes combined to determine their impact on overall mortality by year, age, and birth cohort. METHODS: Based on mortality rates from publicly available datasets, an age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the proportion of deaths due to breast cancer for US women aged 0 to 119 years, with birth years 1900 to 2000. Breast cancer mortality was calculated as all-cause mortality multiplied by the proportion of deaths due to breast cancer; other-cause mortality was the difference between all-cause and breast cancer mortality. RESULTS: Breast cancer and other-cause mortality rates were higher for older ages and birth cohorts. The percent of deaths due to breast cancer increased across birth cohorts from 1900 to 1940 then decreased. Among 50-year-old women, in the 1920 birth cohort, 52 (9.9%) of 100,000 deaths (95% CI, 9.8% to 10.1%) were attributed to breast cancer whereas 476 of 100,000 were due to other causes; in the 1960 birth cohort, 22 (8.5%) of 100,000 deaths (95% CI, 8.3% to 8.7%) were attributed to breast cancer with 242 of 100,000 deaths due to other causes. The percentage of all deaths due to breast cancer was highest (4.1% to 12.9%) for women in their 40s and 50s for all birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: This study offers evidence that advances in breast cancer screening and treatment have reduced breast cancer mortality for women across the age spectrum, and provides estimates of age-, year- and birth cohort-specific competing mortality rates for simulation models. Other-cause mortality estimates are important in these models because most women die from causes other than breast cancer.

The University of Wisconsin Breast Cancer Epidemiology Simulation Model: An Update.

The University of Wisconsin Breast Cancer Epidemiology Simulation Model (UWBCS), also referred to as Model W, is a discrete-event microsimulation model that uses a systems engineering approach to replicate breast cancer epidemiology in the US over time. This population-based model simulates the lifetimes of individual women through 4 main model components: breast cancer natural history, detection, treatment, and mortality. A key feature of the UWBCS is that, in addition to specifying a population distribution in tumor growth rates, the model allows for heterogeneity in tumor behavior, with some tumors having limited malignant potential (i.e., would never become fatal in a woman's lifetime if left untreated) and some tumors being very aggressive based on metastatic spread early in their onset. The model is calibrated to Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) breast cancer incidence and mortality data from 1975 to 2010, and cross-validated against data from the Wisconsin cancer reporting system. The UWBCS model generates detailed outputs including underlying disease states and observed clinical outcomes by age and calendar year, as well as costs, resource usage, and quality of life associated with screening and treatment. The UWBCS has been recently updated to account for differences in breast cancer detection, treatment, and survival by molecular subtypes (defined by ER/HER2 status), to reflect the recent advances in screening and treatment, and to consider a range of breast cancer risk factors, including breast density, race, body-mass-index, and the use of postmenopausal hormone therapy. Therefore, the model can evaluate novel screening strategies, such as risk-based screening, and can assess breast cancer outcomes by breast cancer molecular subtype. In this article, we describe the most up-to-date version of the UWBCS.

Urinary Magnesium and Other Elements in Relation to Mammographic Breast Density, a Measure of Breast Cancer Risk.

PURPOSE: Heavy metals and other elements may act as breast carcinogens due to estrogenic activity. We investigated associations between urine concentrations of a panel of elements and breast density. METHODS: Mammographic density categories were abstracted from radiology reports of 725 women aged 40-65 yr in the Avon Army of Women. A panel of 27 elements was quantified in urine using high resolution magnetic sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We applied LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) logistic regression to the 27 elements and calculated odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for dense vs. nondense breasts, adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: Of the 27 elements, only magnesium (Mg) was selected into the optimal regression model. The odds ratio for dense breasts associated with doubling the Mg concentration was 1.24 (95% CI 1.03-1.49). Doubling the calcium-to-magnesium ratio was inversely associated with dense breasts (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Our cross-sectional study found that higher levels of urinary magnesium were associated with greater breast density. Prospective studies are needed to confirm whether magnesium as evaluated in urine is prospectively associated with breast density and, more importantly, breast cancer.

Geographic access to mammography facilities and frequency of mammography screening.

PURPOSE: To assess the association between geographic access to mammography facilities and women's mammography utilization frequency. METHODS: Using data from the population-based 1995-2007 Wisconsin Women's Health study, we used proportional odds and logistic regression to test whether driving times to mammography facilities and the number of mammography facilities within 10 km of women's homes were associated with mammography frequency among women aged 50-74 years and whether associations differed between Rural-Urban Commuting Areas and income and education groups. RESULTS: We found evidence for nonlinear relationships between geographic access and mammography utilization (nonlinear effects of driving times and facility density, P-values .01 and .005, respectively). Having at least one nearby mammography facility was associated with greater mammography frequency among urban women (1 vs. 0 facilities, odds ratio 1.26, 95% confidence interval, 1.09-1.47), with similar effects among rural women. Adding more facilities had decreasing marginal effects. Long driving times tended to be associated with lower mammography frequency. We found no effect modification by income, education, or urbanicity. In rural settings, mammography nonuse was higher, facility density smaller, and driving times to facilities were longer. CONCLUSIONS: Having at least one mammography facility near one's home may increase mammography utilization, with decreasing effects per each additional facility.