ABSTRACT
Objective:To analyze the risk factors for central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) aged 55 years and above, and to construct a predictive model with columnar graph.Methods:This retrospective study included 406 PTC patients aged 55 and above, treated at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from Nov. 2019 to Feb. 2022. Data on demographic characteristics, disease features, and laboratory test results were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for CLNM and develop a clinical prediction model and nomogram.Results:The study involved 406 patients, divided into a modeling group (285 patients) and a validation group (121 patients). The predictive model identified independent risk factors for CLNM. In the modeling group, the model demonstrated a ROC AUC of 0.769, with 82.6% sensitivity, 63.0% specificity, and 67.7% accuracy. The validation group showed 66.7% sensitivity, 74.5% specificity, and 72.7% accuracy, with an AUC of 0.760. Hosmer-Lemeshow tests indicated good fit in both groups. Decision curve analysis confirmed the model's clinical decision-making value, showing better performance than traditional strategies and good generalizability and reliability.Conclusions:Sex, maximum tumor diameter, bilateral involvement of thyroid lobes, clinically evident cervical lymph nodes, and local invasion are independent predictive factors for CLNM in patients over 55 with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). A clinical risk stratification nomogram model based on these risk factors demonstrates good predictive performance.
ABSTRACT
As the elderly population continues to rise, the issue of disease diagnosis and treatment in the elderly population is becoming a hot topic of concern. Differentiated thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine malignancy in the world, and patients with differentiated thyroid cancer in the elderly have a worse clinical prognosis and higher risk of recurrence and metastasis. Moreover, due to the special characteristics and complexity of the elderly population, patients with differentiated thyroid cancer in the advanced age group have special features in terms of morbidity, preoperative diagnosis, treatment options, and postoperative management compared with other populations. This article reviews the current status of diagnosis and treatment of differentiated thyroid cancer in the elderly, taking into account the findings and opinions of domestic and international studies.
ABSTRACT
Introduction: Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is one of the most prevalent endocrine malignancies that has increased in recent decades around the world. Although the indicator for navigating the surgical extent in PTC patients is still in debate, a key issue is how to predict that there are undetected preoperative tumors in the contralateral thyroid lobe. This study aims to find risk factors for contralateral occult papillary thyroid cancer (COPTC) to facilitate more accurate surgical decisions made for patients with PTC. Materials and Methods: In our study, we included 229 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy plus central and ipsilateral lateral lymph nodes dissection from January 1, 2019, to September 1, 2021. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess the association between COPTC and clinical-pathological characteristics, as well as the relation between the diameter of the occult lesions and predictors. The forest plot was plotted to visualize the prediction factors from the output of the multivariate regression analysis. A ROC curve was used to evaluate the combining potency of all the risk factors. Results: Of the 229 patients included in our study, 46 with COPTC were assigned to the case group, representing 20.1% in this study. Multifocality in one lobe (OR = 2.21, P=0.03), intact capsule (OR = 2.54, P=0.01), central lymph node metastasis (OR = 3.00, P=0.02), and Hashimoto's thyroiditis (OR = 2.08, P = 0.04) are more prone to present contralateral occult papillary thyroid carcinoma. The ROC curve of the aggregate potency of the risk factors presents AUC = 0.701 (P < 0.001), and the best cutoff value was 2.02, with a sensitivity of 78.3% and specificity of 55.2%. Furthermore, there was no statistical correlation between the diameter of the occult tumor and the four obtained variables. Conclusion: Patients with multifocality in one lobe, intact capsule, central lymph node metastasis, and HT may harbor contralateral papillary thyroid carcinoma. It is essential to be prudent to make a surgical or follow-up decision on these patients. In addition, more clinical rather than postoperative pathological indicators need to be revealed in the future.