Long-Term Trend Analysis in the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE)/Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM).

The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment/Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SORCE/SIM) instrument was launched on 25 January 2003 with mission termination occurring on 25 February 2020. The SORCE/SIM provides a unique data set of the variability in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23 (SC23) from April 2003 to February 2009, the weaker solar-maximum conditions of SC24, and the quiescent SC24/SC25 minimum. The determination of the magnitude and phase of SSI variations rely on the unambiguous determination of the effects of the space environment and solar-exposure-related degradation mechanisms. The instrument-only corrections for SIM are based on a comparison of two functionally identical (mirror image) prism spectrometers with four independent detectors in each spectrometer channel. The degradation correction is strictly instrumental in its methodology and makes no assumptions about the magnitude, slope, or wavelength dependence of the SSI variability.

Solar-Cycle Variability Results from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Mission.

The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) was a NASA mission that operated from 2003 to 2020 to provide key climate-monitoring measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI). This 17-year mission made TSI and SSI observations during the declining phase of Solar Cycle 23, during all of Solar Cycle 24, and at the very beginning of Solar Cycle 25. The SORCE solar-variability results include comparisons of the solar irradiance observed during Solar Cycles 23 and 24 and the solar-cycle minima levels in 2008 - 2009 and 2019 - 2020. The differences between these two minima are very small and are not significantly above the estimate of instrument stability over the 11-year period. There are differences in the SSI variability for Solar Cycles 23 and 24, notably for wavelengths longer than 250 nm. Consistency comparisons with SORCE variability on solar-rotation timescales and solar-irradiance model predictions suggest that the SORCE Solar Cycle 24 SSI results might be more accurate than the SORCE Solar Cycle 23 results. The SORCE solar-variability results have been useful for many Sun-climate studies and will continue to serve as a reference for comparisons with future missions studying solar variability.

Overview of the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Seventeen-Year Mission.

The Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) was a NASA mission that operated from 2003 to 2020 to provide key climate-monitoring measurements of total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI). Three important accomplishments of the SORCE mission are i) the continuation of the 42-year-long TSI climate data record, ii) the continuation of the ultraviolet SSI record, and iii) the initiation of the near-ultraviolet, visible, and near-infrared SSI records. All of the SORCE instruments functioned well over the 17-year mission, which far exceeded its five-year prime mission goal. The SORCE spacecraft, having mostly redundant subsystems, was also robust over the mission. The end of the SORCE mission was a planned passivation of the spacecraft following a successful two-year overlap with the NASA Total and Spectral Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) mission, which continues the TSI and SSI climate records. There were a couple of instrument anomalies and a few spacecraft anomalies during SORCE's long mission, but operational changes and updates to flight software enabled SORCE to remain productive to the end of its mission. The most challenging of the anomalies was the degradation of the battery capacity that began to impact operations in 2009 and was the cause for the largest SORCE data gap (August 2013 - February 2014). An overview of the SORCE mission is provided with a couple of science highlights and a discussion of flight anomalies that impacted the solar observations. Companion articles about the SORCE instruments and their final science data-processing algorithms provide additional details about the instrument measurements over the duration of the mission.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

The solar magnetic activity band interaction and instabilities that shape quasi-periodic variability.

Solar magnetism displays a host of variational timescales of which the enigmatic 11-year sunspot cycle is most prominent. Recent work has demonstrated that the sunspot cycle can be explained in terms of the intra- and extra-hemispheric interaction between the overlapping activity bands of the 22-year magnetic polarity cycle. Those activity bands appear to be driven by the rotation of the Sun's deep interior. Here we deduce that activity band interaction can qualitatively explain the 'Gnevyshev Gap'­a well-established feature of flare and sunspot occurrence. Strong quasi-annual variability in the number of flares, coronal mass ejections, the radiative and particulate environment of the heliosphere is also observed. We infer that this secondary variability is driven by surges of magnetism from the activity bands. Understanding the formation, interaction and instability of these activity bands will considerably improve forecast capability in space weather and solar activity over a range of timescales.

Midlatitude atmospheric OH response to the most recent 11-y solar cycle.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) plays an important role in middle atmospheric photochemistry, particularly in ozone (O(3)) chemistry. Because it is mainly produced through photolysis and has a short chemical lifetime, OH is expected to show rapid responses to solar forcing [e.g., the 11-y solar cycle (SC)], resulting in variabilities in related middle atmospheric O(3) chemistry. Here, we present an effort to investigate such OH variability using long-term observations (from space and the surface) and model simulations. Ground-based measurements and data from the Microwave Limb Sounder on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite suggest an ∼7-10% decrease in OH column abundance from solar maximum to solar minimum that is highly correlated with changes in total solar irradiance, solar Mg-II index, and Lyman-α index during SC 23. However, model simulations using a commonly accepted solar UV variability parameterization give much smaller OH variability (∼3%). Although this discrepancy could result partially from the limitations in our current understanding of middle atmospheric chemistry, recently published solar spectral irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment suggest a solar UV variability that is much larger than previously believed. With a solar forcing derived from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment data, modeled OH variability (∼6-7%) agrees much better with observations. Model simulations reveal the detailed chemical mechanisms, suggesting that such OH variability and the corresponding catalytic chemistry may dominate the O(3) SC signal in the upper stratosphere. Continuing measurements through SC 24 are required to understand this OH variability and its impacts on O(3) further.

An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate.

The thermal structure and composition of the atmosphere is determined fundamentally by the incoming solar irradiance. Radiation at ultraviolet wavelengths dissociates atmospheric molecules, initiating chains of chemical reactions-specifically those producing stratospheric ozone-and providing the major source of heating for the middle atmosphere, while radiation at visible and near-infrared wavelengths mainly reaches and warms the lower atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atmospheric structure, as well as surface temperature, and it follows that the response of the atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance depends on the spectrum. Daily measurements of the solar spectrum between 0.2 µm and 2.4 µm, made by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite since April 2004, have revealed that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding. This reduction was partially compensated in the total solar output by an increase in radiation at visible wavelengths. Here we show that these spectral changes appear to have led to a significant decline from 2004 to 2007 in stratospheric ozone below an altitude of 45 km, with an increase above this altitude. Our results, simulated with a radiative-photochemical model, are consistent with contemporaneous measurements of ozone from the Aura-MLS satellite, although the short time period makes precise attribution to solar effects difficult. We also show, using the SIM data, that solar radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. Currently there is insufficient observational evidence to validate the spectral variations observed by SIM, or to fully characterize other solar cycles, but our findings raise the possibility that the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.