National Health Expenditure Projections, 2019-28: Expected Rebound In Prices Drives Rising Spending Growth.

National health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.4 percent for 2019-28 and to represent 19.7 percent of gross domestic product by the end of the period. Price growth for medical goods and services is projected to accelerate, averaging 2.4 percent per year for 2019-28, which partly reflects faster expected growth in health-sector wages. Among all major payers, Medicare is expected to experience the fastest spending growth (7.6 percent per year), largely as a result of having the highest projected enrollment growth. The insured share of the population is expected to fall from 90.6 percent in 2018 to 89.4 percent by 2028.

National Health Expenditure Projections, 2018-27: Economic And Demographic Trends Drive Spending And Enrollment Growth.

National health expenditures are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent for 2018-27 and represent 19.4 percent of gross domestic product in 2027. Following a ten-year period largely influenced by the Great Recession and major health reform, national health spending growth during 2018-27 is expected to be driven primarily by long-observed demographic and economic factors fundamental to the health sector. Prices for health care goods and services are projected to grow 2.5 percent per year, on average, for 2018-27-faster than the average price growth experienced over the last decade-and to account for nearly half of projected personal health care spending growth. Among the major payers, average annual spending growth in Medicare (7.4 percent) is expected to exceed that in Medicaid (5.5 percent) and private health insurance (4.8 percent) over the projection period, mostly as a result of comparatively higher projected enrollment growth. The insured share of the population is expected to remain stable at around 90 percent throughout the period, as net gains in health coverage from all sources are projected to keep pace with population growth.

National Health Expenditure Projections, 2017-26: Despite Uncertainty, Fundamentals Primarily Drive Spending Growth.

Under current law, national health spending is projected to grow 5.5 percent annually on average in 2017-26 and to represent 19.7 percent of the economy in 2026. Projected national health spending and enrollment growth over the next decade is largely driven by fundamental economic and demographic factors: changes in projected income growth, increases in prices for medical goods and services, and enrollment shifts from private health insurance to Medicare that are related to the aging of the population. The recent enactment of tax legislation that eliminated the individual mandate is expected to result in only a small reduction to insurance coverage trends.