Symptom-based scoring technique by machine learning to predict COVID-19: a validation study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) surges, such as that which occurred when omicron variants emerged, may overwhelm healthcare systems. To function properly, such systems should balance detection and workloads by improving referrals using simple yet precise and sensitive diagnostic predictions. A symptom-based scoring system was developed using machine learning for the general population, but no validation has occurred in healthcare settings. We aimed to validate a COVID-19 scoring system using self-reported symptoms, including loss of smell and taste as major indicators. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted to evaluate medical records of patients admitted to Dr. Sardjito Hospital, Yogyakarta, Indonesia, from March 2020 to December 2021. Outcomes were defined by a reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). We compared the symptom-based scoring system, as the index test, with antigen tests, antibody tests, and clinical judgements by primary care physicians. To validate use of the index test to improve referral, we evaluated positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity. RESULTS: After clinical judgement with a PPV of 61% (n = 327/530, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 60% to 62%), confirmation with the index test resulted in the highest PPV of 85% (n = 30/35, 95% CI: 83% to 87%) but the lowest sensitivity (n = 30/180, 17%, 95% CI: 15% to 19%). If this confirmation was defined by either positive predictive scoring or antigen tests, the PPV was 92% (n = 55/60, 95% CI: 90% to 94%). Meanwhile, the sensitivity was 88% (n = 55/62, 95% CI: 87% to 89%), which was higher than that when using only antigen tests (n = 29/41, 71%, 95% CI: 69% to 73%). CONCLUSIONS: The symptom-based COVID-19 predictive score was validated in healthcare settings for its precision and sensitivity. However, an impact study is needed to confirm if this can balance detection and workload for the next COVID-19 surge.

Evidence-Based Policy Recommendations for Public Health Emergency Operation Centers in Regional Settings: A Case Study in Indonesia.

Background: Public health emergencies require integration between multiple stakeholders in different sectors to monitor the situation and carry out an appropriate response. As a country with a large land area consisting of thousands of islands, Indonesia's centralized Public Health Emergency Operation Center (PHEOC) system is currently unable to effectively contain diseases. A PHEOC system reform is required to accommodate Indonesia's circumstances, particularly at the regional level. We have outlined potential models at the sub-national level for PHEOC based on existing evidence. Policy Options and Recommendations: Based on existing evidence of PHEOC models internationally, we have formulated three policy models for regional-level PHEOC. These models (the ad hoc agency model, the independent agency model, and the Province Health Office (PHO)-based model) entail different chains of command, and each has its own benefits. Conclusion: We recommend that the Ministry of Health in Indonesia adopt the third PHEOC policy model, in which the chain of command lies under the PHO. This is the most practical approach, as the PHO has the authority to mobilize units and access resources in response to imminent public health emergencies. Further training and capacity-building are required to support the PHO as the commander of the regional PHEOC.

Quality of National Disease Surveillance Reporting before and during COVID-19: A Mixed-Method Study in Indonesia.

BACKGROUND: Global COVID-19 outbreaks in early 2020 have burdened health workers, among them surveillance workers who have the responsibility to undertake routine disease surveillance activities. The aim of this study was to describe the quality of the implementation of Indonesia's Early Warning and Response Alert System (EWARS) for disease surveillance and to measure the burden of disease surveillance reporting quality before and during the COVID-19 epidemic in Indonesia. METHODS: A mixed-method approach was used. A total of 38 informants from regional health offices participated in Focus Group Discussion (FGD) and In-Depth Interview (IDI) for informants from Ministry of Health. The FGD and IDI were conducted using online video communication. Yearly completeness and timeliness of reporting of 34 provinces were collected from the application. Qualitative data were analyzed thematically, and quantitative data were analyzed descriptively. RESULTS: Major implementation gaps were found in poorly distributed human resources and regional infrastructure inequity. National reporting from 2017-2019 showed an increasing trend of completeness (55%, 64%, and 75%, respectively) and timeliness (55%, 64%, and 75%, respectively). However, the quality of the reporting dropped to 53% and 34% in 2020 concomitant with the SARS-CoV2 epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Report completeness and timeliness are likely related to regional infrastructure inequity and the COVID-19 epidemic. It is recommended to increase report capacities with an automatic EWARS application linked systems in hospitals and laboratories.

Urban-rural differences in factors associated with incomplete basic immunization among children in Indonesia: A nationwide multilevel study.

BACKGROUND: Identifying risk factors of incomplete immunization among children is crucial to developing relevant policies to improve immunization coverage. In this study, we investigated factors associated with incomplete immunization among children in Indonesia and elucidated differences in risk factors between urban and rural areas. METHODS: The data came from a national-wide survey, the 2017 Indonesia Demographic Health Surveys. In total, 3264 children aged 12-23 months were included in the study. An incomplete immunization status was defined as a child who did not complete the ten doses of basic vaccinations, consisting of one dose of bacille Calmette-Guérin, one dose of hepatitis B, three doses of pentavalent vaccine (diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, hemophilus influenza type B, and hepatitis B vaccine), four doses of polio vaccine, and one dose of measles vaccine. Generalized linear mixed models were constructed to examine the effects of different levels of risk factors on the incomplete immunization status. We further conducted stratified analyses by urban and rural areas. RESULTS: About 40% of the 3264 children were incompletely immunized, among whom 45.3% were in urban areas and 54.7% were in rural areas. Eight of the 34 provinces had incomplete immunization rates exceeding 50%, and the Papua and Maluku regions had the highest rates of incomplete child immunization. The multivariate analyses showed that when women attended fewer than four antenatal care sessions and resided outside the Nusa Tenggara region, their children were more likely to have incomplete immunization in both urban and rural areas. On the other hand, having no health insurance was positively associated with incomplete immunization in urban areas, whereas having received a tetanus vaccination during pregnancy was negatively associated with incomplete immunization in rural areas. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study suggest that tailored interventions should be developed to address significant risk factors in rural and urban areas.

Correlation Between Previous Caesarean Section and Adverse Maternal Outcomes Accordingly With Robson Classification: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Background: The increasing rates of Caesarean section (CS) beyond the WHO standards (10-15%) pose a significant global health concern. Objective: Systematic review and meta-analysis to identify an association between CS history and maternal adverse outcomes for the subsequent pregnancy and delivery among women classified in Robson classification (RC). Search Strategy: PubMed/Medline, EbscoHost, ProQuest, Embase, Web of Science, BIOSIS, MEDLINE, and Russian Science Citation Index databases were searched from 2008 to 2018. Selection Criteria: Based on Robson classification, studies reporting one or more of the 14 adverse maternal outcomes were considered eligible for this review. Data Collection: Study design data, interventions used, CS history, and adverse maternal outcomes were extracted. Main Results: From 4,084 studies, 28 (n = 1,524,695 women) met the inclusion criteria. RC group 5 showed the highest proportion among deliveries followed by RC10, RC7, and RC8 (67.71, 32.27, 0.02, and 0.001%). Among adverse maternal outcomes, hysterectomy had the highest association after preterm delivery OR = 3.39 (95% CI 1.56-7.36), followed by Severe Maternal Outcomes OR = 2.95 (95% CI 1.00-8.67). We identified over one and a half million pregnant women, of whom the majority were found to belong to RC group 5. Conclusions: Previous CS was observed to be associated with adverse maternal outcomes for the subsequent pregnancies. CS rates need to be monitored given the prospective risks which may occur for maternal and child health in subsequent births.

Multilevel Factors Associated With Pregnancy-Related Health Behaviors in Indonesia: Evidence From the 2007, 2012, and 2017 Indonesian Demographic Health Surveys.

This study attempted to examine individual- and community-level factors that contribute to pregnancy-related health behaviors among Indonesian women. This study used representative nationwide survey samples from the Indonesian Demographic Health Survey in the years 2007 (N = 15 193), 2012 (N = 14 431), and 2017 (N = 14 797). Generalized linear mixed models were constructed in the multivariate analyses. We found that women's educational level, household wealth index, insurance status, access to health facilities, geographic location, general health condition, and pregnancy intentions were significantly associated with different outcome behaviors. Regarding community-level influences, women who lived in communities with a high proportion of educated women and high household wealth were more likely to have skilled birth attendance during childbirth compared with their counterparts in 2007. The similar pattern of results was also found in 2012 and 2017. The findings of this study suggest that future policies should focus on both individual- and community-level factors to improve women's pregnancy-related behaviors.

Impact of the Sister Hospital Program on Maternal Mortality and Neonatal Mortality in Nusa Tenggara Timur Province, Indonesia.

The province of Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT) in the eastern part of Indonesia is known for high maternal mortality ratios (MMRs) and neonatal mortality eates (NMRs). Sister Hospital is a multicenter program, which aims to lower MMRs and NMRs in the deprived areas of Indonesia by providing comprehensive emergency services for maternal and newborn care. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the Sister Hospital program on MMRs and NMRs in 2009-17. We used linear mixed-effects models to analyze the program's effects. Study results suggested that in general, the Sister Hospital program reduced MMRs by 1.14/100 000 live births after adjusting for other sociodemographic factors. This study also found that the program effects varied by island, and the highest reduction in MMRs, were found on Sumba Island in which the log of MMRs decreased from 2.23 in 2009 to 2.01 in 2017. However, no effects on NMR outcomes by the program were found. These findings suggest that the Sister Hospital program can be a practical solution for lowering MMRs in rural Indonesia.

Obesity Is Less Frequently Associated with Cognitive Impairment in Elderly Individuals: A Cross-Sectional Study in Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

Obesity is one of the factors associated with cognitive impairment. However, obesity may differently affect cognitive function in different age groups, and scarce data are available from low- and middle-income countries. This cross-sectional study aimed to identify the association between obesity and cognitive impairment among 143 elderly individuals in Yogyakarta. We recorded the sociodemographic factors and some comorbidities, also measured the body mass index as a parameter of obesity, cognitive function using Montreal Cognitive Assessment-Indonesia, mood condition and depression status using geriatric depression scale-short form, as well as the daily life function using Activity of Daily Living and Instrumental Activity of Daily Living. After adjustment for the sociodemographic and comorbidities, we found that subjects with older age were more likely to have cognitive impairment (odds ratio [OR] 3.544, 95%CI: 1.36-9.22, p < 0.01) and compared with elderly individuals with normal weight, obese elderly individuals were 40% less likely to have cognitive impairment (OR 0.604, 95%CI: 0.39-0.95, p < 0.05). This study suggests that obesity in elderly individuals is less frequently associated with cognitive impairment. These findings support the reverse causation mechanism related to body mass index (BMI) and cognitive impairment in low/middle-income countries.

Multilevel Factors Associated With Pregnancy-Related Health Behaviors in Indonesia: Evidence From the 2007, 2012, and 2017 Indonesian Demographic Health Surveys.

Indonesia has one of the highest maternal mortality rates among Southeast Asia countries. Mothers' pregnancy-related behaviors were proven to be the major determinants of maternal mortality. This study attempted to measure individual- and community-level factors that contribute to pregnancy-related health behaviors among Indonesian women. This study used representative nationwide survey samples among women aged 15 to 49 years from the Indonesian Demographic Health Survey in the years 2007 (N = 15 314), 2012 (N = 15 197), and 2017 (N = 15 300). Generalized linear mixed models were constructed to simultaneously analyze relationships of pregnancy-related health behaviors with other individual- and community-level explanatory factors. We found that women's educational level, household wealth index, insurance status, access to health facilities, geographic location, general health condition, pregnancy intentions, and community-level socioeconomic status were significantly associated with different outcome behaviors. The findings of this study suggest that future policies should focus on both individual- and community-level factors to improve women's pregnancy-related behaviors.