Quality of life in Dutch patients with primary biliary cholangitis: Discrepancies between patients' perspectives and objective disease parameters.

AIM: This study aims to assess the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in a Dutch population of patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) in relation to the prognosis and need for second line-therapy, based on both objective disease parameters and patients' perspectives. METHODS: In this cross-sectional multicenter study, HRQoL was assessed by using the Dutch PBC-40 according to objective clinical parameters and patients' perspectives on treatment and prognosis. RESULTS: In total, 178/269 (66%) patients responded; mean age 61.2 (SD 9.9) years and 165 (92.7%) women. The PBC-40 domain scores did not differ according to the GLOBE score response (p > 0.05 for all) or according to the POISE criteria (p > 0.05), except for the domain itch (p = 0.031). Patients who considered their survival to be impaired scored higher on all domains as compared to those expecting a normal prognosis (p < 0.05). Similarly, PBC-40 domain scores were higher among patients who considered that they were in need of additional therapy compared to those who did not (p < 0.05 for all, except for domain itch [p = 0.056]). However, 45/62 (72.6%) patients with a self-expected impaired prognosis had a GLOBE score indicative of a normal prognosis. Twenty-five of the 40 (62.5%) patients who believed they needed additional therapy were below POISE criteria. CONCLUSION: The HRQoL of patients with PBC was impaired in terms of nonfavorable disease status according to the expectations of patients, but not according to objective disease parameters. Substantial discrepancies between patients' perspectives and objective parameters were observed, which highlights the need for better patient guidance among patient with PBC.

Ursodeoxycholic Acid Treatment-Induced GLOBE Score Changes Are Associated With Liver Transplantation-Free Survival in Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Treatment of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) can improve the GLOBE score. We aimed to assess the association between changes in the GLOBE score (ΔGLOBE) and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC who were treated with ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA). METHODS: Among UDCA-treated patients within the Global PBC cohort, the association between ΔGLOBE (ΔGLOBE 0-1 : during the first year of UDCA, ΔGLOBE 1-2 : during the second year) and the risk of LT or death was assessed through Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Overall, 3,775 UDCA-treated patients were included; 3,424 (90.7%) were female, the median age was 54.0 (interquartile range [IQR] 45.9-62.4) years, and the median baseline GLOBE score was 0.25 (IQR -0.47 to 0.96). During a median follow-up of 7.2 (IQR 3.7-11.5) years, 730 patients reached the combined end point of LT or death. The median ΔGLOBE 0-1 was -0.27 (IQR -0.56 to 0.02). Cox regression analyses, adjusted for pretreatment GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-12 , showed that ΔGLOBE was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.28, 95% confidence interval 1.81-2.87, P < 0.001). The interaction between baseline GLOBE score and ΔGLOBE 0-1 was not statistically significant ( P = 0.296). The ΔGLOBE 1-2 was associated with LT or death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.19, 95% confidence interval 1.67-2.86, P < 0.001), independently from the baseline GLOBE score and the change in GLOBE score during the first year of UDCA. DISCUSSION: UDCA-induced changes in the GLOBE score were significantly associated with LT-free survival in patients with PBC. While the relative risk reduction of LT or death was stable, the absolute risk reduction was heavily dependent on the baseline prognosis of the patient.

Liver transplant-free survival according to alkaline phosphatase and GLOBE score in patients with primary biliary cholangitis treated with ursodeoxycholic acid.

BACKGROUND: After 1 year of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) may have a normal GLOBE score despite high alkaline phosphatase (ALP) levels. AIM: To assess the association between ALP and liver transplantation (LT)-free survival according to the GLOBE score METHODS: Among patients with a normal or elevated GLOBE score in the Global PBC cohort, the association between ALP after 1 year of UDCA and the risk of LT/death was assessed. The LT-free survival was compared with that of a matched general population. RESULTS: After 1 year of UDCA, ALP was associated with the risk of LT/death (aHR 1.31, 95% CI 1.003-1.72, p = 0.048) among 2729 patients with a normal GLOBE score. The 10-year LT-free survival among these patients with an ALP >2.0 × ULN was 94.0% (95% CI 90.1-97.9) for those <50 years, and 82.6% (95% CI 76.5-88.7) for those ≥50 years, which was significantly lower (p = 0.040) and similar (p = 0.736) to that of the matched population, respectively. The 10-year LT-free survival in patients ≥50 years with normal GLOBE score and normal ALP (90.8%, 95% CI 87.7-93.9) was significantly higher (p = 0.022) than the matched population. Among 1045 patients with an elevated GLOBE score, ALP was associated with LT/death only in those <50 years (aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.06-1.81, p = 0.016). CONCLUSION: The LT-free survival of patients with PBC with a normal GLOBE score is optimal in case of normal ALP levels, also in relation to the general population. Despite their generally favourable prognosis, an elevated ALP level may still indicate a need for add-on therapy.

Measurement properties of the PBC-40 and PBC-27: a Dutch validation study.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) have an impaired health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Practice guidelines recommend evaluating the HRQoL in all patients with PBC. The aim of this study was to assess the reliability and validity of our Dutch translation of the PBC-40, a PBC-specific measure of the HRQoL. DESIGN: The PBC-40 was translated into Dutch following standardised forward-backward procedures. Participants received the Dutch PBC-40 and the RAND-36 (a validated Dutch version of the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey) through postal mail. The PBC-27 is an abridged version of the PBC-40. Internal consistency between the items within the PBC-40/PBC-27 domains was assessed by Cronbach's alpha. In addition, score distributions were analysed on floor and ceiling effects. Construct validity was assessed by hypotheses testing using Pearson's correlation between the PBC-40/PBC-27 domains and RAND-36 scales. RESULTS: 177 patients with PBC were included. The mean age was 61.1 (SD 9.9) years and the majority of patients was female (n=164, 92.7%). From the 7080 PBC-40 items, 61 items (0.9%) were missing and 342 items (4.8%) were answered with the 'does not apply' option. Each PBC-40 domain had a Cronbach's α of >0.70, with the highest in the domain fatigue (0.95). For the PBC-27, the lowest Cronbach's α was 0.69. Floor effects were present in three domains (cognition 19.3%, itch 27.0% and social 25.0% (only for PBC-27)). No ceiling effects were observed. All domains were significantly correlated with the corresponding RAND-36 scale(s) (p<0.001 for all). The strongest correlation was between the PBC-40 domain fatigue and the RAND-36 vitality scale (r=-0.834). CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate the reliability and validity of the Dutch PBC-40 and PBC-27 for the assessment of the HRQoL in patients with PBC. This PBC-specific measure can be used in Dutch-speaking patients with PBC for both research and clinical purposes.

A Comparison of Prognostic Scores (Mayo, UK-PBC, and GLOBE) in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Comparative data on scores that predict outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) are scarce. We aimed to assess and compare the prognostic value of the Mayo Risk Score (MRS, 1989 and 1994), UK-PBC score, and GLOBE score in a large international cohort of patients with PBC. METHODS: Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients from 7 centers participating in the GLOBAL PBC Study Group were included. The discriminatory performance of the scores was assessed with concordance statistics at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Model for End-stage Liver Disease was included for comparison. Prediction accuracy was assessed by comparing predicted survival and actual survival in Kaplan-Meier analyses. RESULTS: A total of 1,100 ursodeoxycholic acid-treated patients with PBC were included, with a mean (SD) age of 53.6 (12.0) years, of whom 1,003 (91%) were female. During a median follow-up of 7.6 (interquartile range 4.1-11.7) years, 42 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 127 patients died. At 1 year, the concordance statistic for Model for End-stage Liver Disease was 0.68 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.64-0.72), 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.80) for the UK-PBC score, 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.81) for the MRS (1989 and 1994), and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76-0.84) for the GLOBE score. The GLOBE score showed superior discriminatory performance, but differences were not statistically different. For all scores, discriminatory performance increased in those with bilirubin >0.6 × ULN and advanced fibrosis estimated with Fibrosis-4. The predicted (median) minus observed 5-year transplant-free survival was +0.4% and +2.5% for the MRS (1989) and GLOBE score, respectively. DISCUSSION: All prognostic scores developed for PBC (GLOBE, UK-PBC, and MRS) demonstrated comparable discriminating performance for liver transplantation or death as well as good prediction accuracy.

Obeticholic acid is associated with improvements in AST-to-platelet ratio index and GLOBE score in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Biochemical markers, including GLOBE score and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), are used to stratify risk in patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). This study aimed to evaluate the effects of obeticholic acid (OCA) on categorical shifts in GLOBE score, APRI, and both combined, based on data from POISE, a phase III placebo-controlled trial in patients with PBC who had an incomplete response or were intolerant to ursodeoxycholic acid. METHODS: In a post hoc analysis, baseline and Month 12 data from POISE were used to calculate the APRI and GLOBE score. Patients were stratified into 3 risk groups based on a combination of APRI (0.54) and GLOBE (0.3 or age-specific) thresholds. RESULTS: The analysis included 215 patients (47 low risk; 79 moderate risk; 89 high risk). Using the combined GLOBE score (threshold of 0.3) and APRI thresholds, there was improvement in ≥1 risk stage in 37% and 35% of patients in the OCA 5-10 mg and 10 mg groups, respectively, vs. 12% in the placebo group (both p <0.05). Progression occurred in 10% and 0% in the 5-10 mg and 10 mg groups vs. 37% in the placebo group. Results with GLOBE age-specific thresholds were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Based on change in APRI and GLOBE score at 12 months, OCA treatment is associated with reduction in the predicted risk of liver-related complications in patients with PBC. LAY SUMMARY: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a chronic disease affecting the liver. People who suffer from PBC are at risk of serious long-term complications. Information from certain blood tests can be used to estimate the likelihood of experiencing long-term complications. The results of this study showed that based on blood test results, people taking obeticholic acid, with or without ursodeoxycholic acid, for PBC were predicted to have a better outcome than those taking placebo. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NCT01473524.

Goals of Treatment for Improved Survival in Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Treatment Target Should Be Bilirubin Within the Normal Range and Normalization of Alkaline Phosphatase.

INTRODUCTION: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) are widely established as independent predictors of prognosis. Current treatment goals do not aim for normalization of surrogate markers because their association with survival has not been defined. METHODS: The patient cohort from the GLOBAL PBC Study Group was used, comprising of long-term follow-up data from European and North American centers. Ursodeoxycholic acid-treated and untreated patients with bilirubin levels ≤1 × upper limit of normal (ULN) at baseline or 1 year were included. The association of normal ALP with transplant-free survival was assessed in a subgroup with ALP ≤1.67 × ULN at 1 year. Optimal thresholds of bilirubin and ALP to predict liver transplantation (LT) or death were evaluated. RESULTS: There were 2,281 patients included in the time zero cohort and 2,555 patients in the 1-year cohort. The bilirubin threshold with the highest ability to predict LT or death at 1 year was 0.6 × ULN (hazard ratio 2.12, 95% CI 1.69-2.66, P < 0.001). The 10-year survival rates of patients with bilirubin ≤0.6 × ULN and >0.6 × ULN were 91.3% and 79.2%, respectively (P < 0.001). The risk for LT or death was stable below the bilirubin levels of 0.6 × ULN, yet increased beyond this threshold. Ursodeoxycholic acid-induced reduction in bilirubin below this threshold was associated with an 11% improvement in 10-year survival. Furthermore, ALP normalization was optimal, with 10-year survival rates of 93.2% in patients with ALP ≤ 1 × ULN and 86.1% in those with ALP 1.0-1.67 × ULN. DISCUSSION: Attaining bilirubin levels ≤0.6 × ULN or normal ALP are associated with the lowest risk for LT or death in patients with PBC. This has important implications for treatment targets.

Factors Associated With Progression and Outcomes of Early Stage Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients usually receive a diagnosis of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) at an early stage, based on biochemical analyses. We investigated the proportion of patients who progress to moderate or advanced PBC and factors associated with progression and patient survival. METHODS: We obtained data from 1615 patients (mean age, 55.4 y) with early stage PBC (based on their normal levels of albumin and bilirubin), collected at the time of initial evaluation or treatment, from the Global PBC Study Group database (comprising patients at 19 liver centers in North American and European countries). We collected data from health care evaluations on progression to moderate PBC (abnormal level of bilirubin or albumin) or advanced-stage PBC (abnormal level of both). The median follow-up time was 7.9 years. The composite end point was decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation, or death. RESULTS: Of the 1615 patients identified with early stage PBC, 904 developed moderate PBC and 201 developed advanced disease over the study period. The proportions of patients who transitioned to moderate PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 12.9%, 30.2%, and 45.8%. The proportions of these patients who then transitioned to advanced PBC at 1, 3, and 5 years later were 3.4%, 12.5%, and 16.0%, respectively. During the follow-up period, 236 patients had a clinical event. The proportions of patients with moderate PBC and event-free survival were 97.9%, 95.1%, and 91.5% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively, and the proportions of patients with advanced PBC and event-free survival were 90.6%, 71.2%, and 58.3% at 1, 3, and 5 years later, respectively. Variables associated with transition from early to moderate PBC included baseline levels of bilirubin, albumin, and alkaline phosphatase; aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio; platelet count; and treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid. Transitions from early to moderate PBC and from moderate to advanced PBC were associated with higher probabilities of a clinical event (time-dependent hazard ratios, 3.0; 95% CI, 2.0-4.5; and 4.6; 95% CI, 3.5-6.2). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of patients with early stage PBC progress to a more severe stage within 5 years. Progression is associated with an increased risk of a clinical event, so surveillance is important for patients with early stage PBC.

Number needed to treat with ursodeoxycholic acid therapy to prevent liver transplantation or death in primary biliary cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: The clinical benefit of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) has never been reported in absolute measures. The aim of this study was to assess the number needed to treat (NNT) with UDCA to prevent liver transplantation (LT) or death among patients with PBC. METHODS: The NNT was calculated based on the untreated LT-free survival and HR of UDCA with respect to LT or death as derived from inverse probability of treatment weighting-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analyses within the Global PBC Study Group database. RESULTS: We included 3902 patients with a median follow-up of 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. The overall HR of UDCA was 0.46 (95% CI 0.40 to 0.52) and the 5-year LT-free survival without UDCA was 81% (95% CI 79 to 82). The NNT to prevent one LT or death within 5 years (NNT5y) was 11 (95% CI 9 to 13). Although the HR of UDCA was similar for patients with and without cirrhosis (0.33 vs 0.31), the NNT5y was 4 (95% CI 3 to 5) and 20 (95% CI 14 to 34), respectively. Among patients with low alkaline phosphatase (ALP) (≤2× the upper limit of normal (ULN)), intermediate ALP (2-4× ULN) and high ALP (>4× ULN), the NNT5y to prevent one LT or death was 26 (95% CI 15 to 70), 11 (95% CI 8 to 17) and 5 (95% CI 4 to 8), respectively. CONCLUSION: The absolute clinical efficacy of UDCA with respect to LT or death varied with baseline prognostic characteristics, but was high throughout. These findings strongly emphasise the incentive to promptly initiate UDCA treatment in all patients with PBC and may improve patient compliance.

Ursodeoxycholic acid therapy and liver transplant-free survival in patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The clinical efficacy of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) remains subject to debate as definitive randomized controlled trials are lacking. We aimed to determine whether UDCA prolongs liver transplant (LT)-free survival in patients with PBC. METHODS: This international cohort study included patients from the Global PBC Study Group database, originating from 8 countries in Europe and North America. Both UDCA-treated and untreated patients were included. LT and death were assessed as a combined endpoint through Cox regression analyses, with inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW). RESULTS: In the 3,902 patients included, the mean (SD) age was 54.3 (11.9) years, 3,552 patients (94.0%) were female, 3,529 patients (90.4%) were treated with UDCA and 373 patients (9.6%) were not treated. The median (interquartile range) follow-up was 7.8 (4.1-12.1) years. In total, 721 UDCA-treated patients and 145 untreated patients died or underwent LT. After IPTW, the 10-year cumulative LT-free survival was 79.7% (95% CI 78.1-81.2) among UDCA-treated patients and 60.7% (95% CI 58.2-63.4) among untreated patients (p <0.001). UDCA was associated with a statistically significant reduced risk of LT or death (hazard ratio 0.46, 95% CI 0.40-0.52; p <0.001). The hazard ratio remained statistically significant in all stages of disease. Patients classified as inadequate biochemical responders after 1 year of UDCA had a lower risk of LT or death than patients who were not treated (adjusted hazard ratio 0.56; 95% CI 0.45-0.69; p <0.001). CONCLUSION: The use of UDCA improves LT-free survival among patients with PBC, regardless of the disease stage and the observed biochemical response. These findings support UDCA as the current universal standard of care in PBC. LAY SUMMARY: In this international multicenter study of 3,902 patients with primary biliary cholangitis, we found that treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid is associated with prolonged liver transplant-free survival. This association was significant, irrespective of sex, age, or disease stage. The survival benefit remained statistically significant in patients with an incomplete biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid therapy.

Factors Associated With Recurrence of Primary Biliary Cholangitis After Liver Transplantation and Effects on Graft and Patient Survival.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) frequently recurs after liver transplantation. We evaluated risk factors associated with recurrence of PBC and its effects on patient and graft survival in a multicenter, international cohort (the Global PBC Study Group). METHODS: We collected demographic and clinical data from 785 patients (89% female) with PBC who underwent liver transplantation (mean age, 54 ± 9 years) from February 1983 through June 2016, among 13 centers in North America and Europe. Results from biochemical tests performed within 12 months of liver transplantation were analyzed to determine whether markers of cholestasis could identify patients with recurrence of PBC (based on histologic analysis). Patients were followed for a median 6.9 years (interquartile range, 6.1-7.9 years). RESULTS: PBC recurred in 22% of patients after 5 years and 36% after 10 years. Age at diagnosis <50 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.79; 95% CI, 1.36-2.36; P < .001), age at liver transplantation <60 years (HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.90; P = .04), use of tacrolimus (HR, 2.31; 95% CI, 1.72-3.10; P < .001), and biochemical markers of severe cholestasis (bilirubin ≥100 µmol or alkaline phosphatase >3-fold the upper limit of normal) at 6 months after liver transplantation (HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.16-2.76; P = .008) were associated with higher risk of PBC recurrence, whereas use of cyclosporine reduced risk of PBC recurrence (HR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.46-0.82; P = .001). In multivariable Cox regression with time-dependent covariate, recurrence of PBC significantly associated with graft loss (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.16-3.51; P = .01) and death (HR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.11-2.65; P = .02). CONCLUSIONS: Younger age at the time of diagnosis with PBC or at liver transplantation, tacrolimus use, and biochemical markers of cholestasis after liver transplantation are associated with PBC recurrence. PBC recurrence reduces odds of graft and patient survival. Strategies are needed to prevent PBC recurrence or reduce its negative effects.

Trends in liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis in Europe over the past three decades.

BACKGROUND: The importance of primary biliary cholangitis as an indication for liver transplantation has probably been influenced by the introduction of therapies, and changes in selection criteria and disease epidemiology. AIMS: To assess the time trends in liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis and to evaluate the characteristics of the patient population during the past three decades. METHODS: Patients undergoing liver transplantation from 1986 to 2015 in centres reporting to the European Liver Transplantation Registry were included. We excluded combined organ transplantations and patients <18 years. Trends were assessed using linear regression models. RESULTS: We included 112 874 patients, of whom 6029 (5.3%) had primary biliary cholangitis. After an initial increase in the first decade, the annual number of liver transplantation for primary biliary cholangitis remained stable at around 200. The proportion of liver transplantations for primary biliary cholangitis decreased from 20% in 1986 to 4% in 2015 (P < 0.001). Primary biliary cholangitis was the only indication showing a consistent proportional decrease throughout all decades. From the first to the third decade, the age at liver transplantation increased from 54 (IQR 47-59) to 56 years (IQR 48-62) and the proportion of males increased from 11% to 15% (both P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: We have found a proportional decrease in primary biliary cholangitis as indication for liver transplantation. However, despite treatment with ursodeoxycholic acid and improved disease awareness, the absolute annual number of liver transplantations has stabilised.

Improving prognosis in primary biliary cholangitis - Therapeutic options and strategy.

Overall survival in primary biliary cholangitis is diminished. As patients are often asymptomatic, the disease may silently progress towards cirrhosis and liver failure. Timely diagnosis and effective treatment options are of vital importance to improve the prognosis of affected patients. Ursodeoxycholic acid is the standard of care first-line therapy and is associated with a reduced risk of liver transplantation and death. Treatment with UDCA is relevant for all patients, irrespective of disease stage or biochemical response. In case of incomplete biochemical response according to internationally accepted criteria, second-line treatment should be considered to improve long-term prognosis. Ursodeoxycholic acid has been the only accepted treatment for PBC during the last decades. Recent research, however, has identified a number of new therapeutic targets and agents, including obeticholic acid, fibrates and budesonide. While these agents all qualify as potentially beneficial second-line treatment, obeticholic acid is currently the only drug specifically approved for the treatment of PBC. Although long-term follow-up studies for these agents are mostly lacking, improvement of biochemical surrogate markers of clinical outcome induced by these drugs suggests a therapeutic benefit. The authors of this review aim to provide a summary of the results of previous and current studies evaluating medical treatments, and propose a treatment strategy based on the evidence available today.

Risk stratification and prognostic modelling in primary biliary cholangitis.

Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is a slowly progressive chronic cholestatic liver disease that, in a subgroup of patients, may result in liver failure or death. The definition of specific risk profiles, i.e. risk stratification, is of critical importance for the identification of these subgroups and thereby the targeting of care. Over the last few years large multicentre cohort studies have improved our knowledge regarding factors associated with progressive disease. Stratification based on biochemical response to ursodoxycholic acid provides a readily available measure to identify groups that might benefit from additional therapies to further improve prognosis. In addition, serum total bilirubin and alkaline phosphatase are now considered the most robustly validated biomarkers of long-term outcome in PBC and are used as endpoints in clinical trials. The GLOBE score and UK-PBC risk score enable us to quantify the risk of future events for the individual patient, allowing more individualized risk prediction. In this review, we discuss both established prognostic factors and newly developed tools to estimate prognosis in PBC, highlighting their strengths, limitations and applicability in clinical practice.

Clinical application of the GLOBE and United Kingdom-primary biliary cholangitis risk scores in a trial cohort of patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

The GLOBAL Primary Biliary Cholangitis (PBC) Study Group and United Kingdom-PBC (UK-PBC) Consortium have demonstrated that dichotomous response criteria are not as accurate as continuous equations at predicting mortality or liver transplantation in PBC. The aim of this analysis was to assess the clinical utility of the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scores using data from POISE, a phase 3 trial investigating obeticholic acid (OCA) in patients with PBC. Data (N = 216) at baseline and month 12 were used to calculate the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scores to assess the projected change in risk with OCA versus placebo. Additionally, the benefit of OCA was assessed in patients not meeting the POISE primary endpoint. Both the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scores predicted a significant reduction in long-term risk of death and liver transplantation after OCA treatment (P < 0.0001). The differences in the relative risk reduction from baseline in the 10-year event risk after 1 year for OCA 10 mg versus placebo was 26% (GLOBE) and 37% (UK-PBC). The scores also predicted a significantly decreased risk in patients treated with OCA who did not meet POISE response criteria after 1 year of treatment compared to an increased risk with placebo (P < 0.0001). Conclusion: This analysis demonstrates the use of the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scores to assess risk reduction of a cohort treated with OCA. While validation of this risk reduction in studies with clinical outcomes is needed, this study highlights the potential use of these scores in individualizing risk prediction in PBC both in clinical practice and therapeutic trials. (Hepatology Communications 2018;2:683-692).

Major Hepatic Complications in Ursodeoxycholic Acid-Treated Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis: Risk Factors and Time Trends in Incidence and Outcome.

OBJECTIVES: In this era of near universal ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), progression to cirrhosis still occurs in an important proportion of patients. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of cirrhosis-associated complications in patients with PBC and assess risk factors and impact on survival. METHODS: Cohorts of UDCA-treated patients from 16 European and North-American liver centers were included. We used Cox proportional hazards assumptions and Kaplan-Meier estimates. RESULTS: During 8.1 years' median follow-up, 278 of 3,224 patients developed ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or encephalopathy (incidence rate of 9.7 cases/1,000 patient years). The overall cumulative incidence was 9.1% after 10 years of follow-up, but decreased over time to 5.8% after the year 2000. Earlier calendar year of diagnosis (P<0.001), high aspartate aminotransferase to platelets ratio index (APRI; P<0.001) and biochemical non-response (P<0.001) were independently associated with future complications. Patients with both biochemical non-response and an APRI >0.54 after 12 months of UDCA had a 10-year complication rate of 37.4%, as compared to 3.2% in biochemical responders with an APRI ≤0.54. The 10-year transplantation-free survival after a complication was 9% (time-dependent hazard ratio 21.5; 20.1-22.8). Prognosis after variceal bleeding has improved over time. CONCLUSIONS: In this large international cohort, up to 15% of UDCA-treated PBC patients developed major non-neoplastic, cirrhosis-associated hepatic complications within 15 years, but cumulative incidence has decreased over time. Biochemical non-response to UDCA and APRI were independent risk factors for these complications. Subsequent long-term outcome after complications is generally poor, but has improved over the past decades.

Validation of the prognostic value of histologic scoring systems in primary sclerosing cholangitis: An international cohort study.

Histologic scoring systems specific for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) are not validated. We recently determined the applicability and prognostic value of three histological scoring systems in a single PSC cohort. The aim of this study was to validate their prognostic use and reproducibility across a multicenter PSC cohort. Liver biopsies from PSC patients were collected from seven European institutions. Histologic scoring was performed using the Nakanuma, Ishak, and Ludwig scoring systems. Biopsies were independently scored by six liver pathologists for interobserver agreement. The prognostic value of clinical, biochemical, and all three histologic scoring systems on predicting composite endpoints 1 (PSC-related death and liver transplantation), 2 (liver transplantation), and 3 (liver-related events), was assessed using univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazards modeling. A total of 119 PSC patients were identified, and the median follow-up was 142 months. During follow-up, 31 patients died (20 PSC-related deaths), 31 patients underwent liver transplantation, and 35 patients experienced one or more liver-related events. All three staging systems were independent predictors of endpoints 2 and 3 (Nakanuma system: hazard ratio [HR], 3.16 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.49-6.68] for endpoint 2 and HR, 2.05 [95% CI, 1.17-3.57] for endpoint 3; Ishak system: HR, 1.55 [95% CI, 1.10-2.18] for endpoint 2 and HR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.10-1.85] for endpoint 3; Ludwig system: HR, 2.62 [95% CI, 1.19-5.80] for endpoint 2 and HR, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.09-3.89] for endpoint 3). Only the Nakanuma staging system was independently associated with endpoint 1: HR, 2.14 (95% CI, 1.22-3.77). Interobserver agreement was moderate for Nakanuma stage (κ = 0.56) and substantial for Nakanuma component fibrosis (κ = 0.67), Ishak stage (κ = 0.64), and Ludwig stage (κ = 0.62). CONCLUSION: We confirm the independent prognostic value and demonstrate for the first time the reproducibility of staging disease progression in PSC using the Nakanuma, Ishak, and Ludwig staging systems. The Nakanuma staging system-incorporating features of chronic biliary disease-again showed the strongest predictive value. (Hepatology 2017;65:907-919).

Surrogate Endpoints for Optimal Therapeutic Response to UDCA in Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

BACKGROUND: Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is the standard treatment for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), as it can delay histological progression, improve long-term outcome and is extremely safe and well tolerated. However, UDCA is not always sufficient and the prognosis of patients inadequately responding to treatment is worse compared with the general population. Reliable identification of so-called non-responders is of key importance, not only for selecting patients who could benefit from additional, second-line therapy, but also for identifying those individuals who are at low risk of developing end-stage disease and in whom UDCA mono-therapy can be safely continued. Several laboratory surrogate endpoints for the long-term response to UDCA have been proposed, including the Barcelona, Paris, Toronto and Rotterdam criteria. All these criteria have limitations and the superiority of one over the other has not been firmly established. KEY MESSAGES: Recently the Global PBC Study Group developed a new prognostic tool by studying a large, representative and multinational cohort of 4,119 UDCA-treated patients. In a random sample of 2,488 cases, a risk score--the GLOBE score--was developed, predictive of transplantation-free survival. This risk score comprises age, and bilirubin, albumin, alkaline phosphatase and platelet count obtained after 1 year therapy, and has a performance (C statistic 0.81, 95% CI 0.79-0.83) that is markedly better than that of previously proposed response criteria. Comparable performance was found in an independent validation cohort of 1,631 cases (C statistic 0.82, 95% CI 0.79-0.84). A web app will allow the easy use of the score in clinical practice.