A Bayesian statistical analysis of mouse dermal tumor promotion assay data for evaluating cigarette smoke condensate.

The mouse dermal assay has long been used to assess the dermal tumorigenicity of cigarette smoke condensate (CSC). This mouse skin model has been developed for use in carcinogenicity testing utilizing the SENCAR mouse as the standard strain. Though the model has limitations, it remains as the most relevant method available to study the dermal tumor promoting potential of mainstream cigarette smoke. In the typical SENCAR mouse CSC bioassay, CSC is applied for 29 weeks following the application of a tumor initiator such as 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene (DMBA). Several endpoints are considered for analysis including: the percentage of animals with at least one mass, latency, and number of masses per animal. In this paper, a relatively straightforward analytic model and procedure is presented for analyzing the time course of the incidence of masses. The procedure considered here takes advantage of Bayesian statistical techniques, which provide powerful methods for model fitting and simulation. Two datasets are analyzed to illustrate how the model fits the data, how well the model may perform in predicting data from such trials, and how the model may be used as a decision tool when comparing the dermal tumorigenicity of cigarette smoke condensate from multiple cigarette types. The analysis presented here was developed as a statistical decision tool for differentiating between two or more prototype products based on the dermal tumorigenicity.

Environmental fate and effects of nicotine released during cigarette production.

A variety of test methods were used to study the gradation, bioaccumulation, and toxicity of nicotine. Studies included determination of the octanol-water partition coefficient, conversion to CO2 in soil and activated sludge, and evaluation of the effects on microbiological and algal inhibition as well as plant germination and root elongation. The partitioning of nicotine between octanol and water indicated that nicotine will not bioaccumulate regardless of the pH of the medium. The aqueous and soil-based biodegradation studies indicated that nicotine is readily biodegradable in both types of media. The microbiological inhibition and aquatic and terrestrial toxicity tests indicated that nicotine has low toxicity. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Persistence, Bioaccumulation, and Toxicity Profiler model, based on the structure of nicotine and the predictive rates of hydroxyl radical and ozone reactions, estimated an atmospheric half-life of less than 5.0 h. Using this value in the Canadian Environmental Modeling Center level III model, the half-life of nicotine was estimated as 3.0 d in water and 0.5 d in soil. This model also estimated nicotine discharge into the environment; nicotine would be expected to be found predominantly in water (93%), followed by soil (4%), air (3%), and sediment (0.4%). Using the estimated nicotine concentrations in water, soil, and sediment and the proper median effective concentrations derived from the algal growth, biomass inhibition, and buttercrunch lettuce (Lactuca sativa) seed germination and root elongation studies, hazard quotients of between 10(-7) and 10(-8) were calculated, providing further support for the conclusion that the potential for nicotine toxicity to aquatic and terrestrial species in the environment is extremely low.

Worker exposure standard for phosphine gas.

The 1998 U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Office of Pesticide Programs (OPP) re-registration eligibility decision (RED) for phosphine fumigants has generated much interest in defining safe levels of exposure for workers and worker bystanders. This report summarizes the pertinent literature on phosphine toxicity, including animal inhalation studies and human epidemiology studies, and also describes a margin-of-exposure (MOE) analysis based on available worker exposure data. In addition, a safe occupational exposure limit is estimated using typical OPP assumptions, after determination of appropriate uncertainty factors, based on quality of data in the principal study and pharmacokinetic considerations. While a conservative 8-hour time-weighted average (TWA) of 0.1 ppm was calculated, the overall weight of evidence, from a risk-management perspective, supports a conclusion that an occupational TWA of 0.3 ppm provides adequate health protection. In addition, a 15-minute short-term exposure limit (STEL) of 3 ppm was estimated. Finally, in contrast to the MOE analysis described in the OPP's phosphine RED, the MOE analysis described herein does not indicate that fumigation workers are currently being exposed to unacceptable levels of phosphine. Collectively, these findings support the occupational exposure limits of 0.3 ppm (8-hour TWA) and 1 ppm (STEL) established in the updated applicator's manuals for phosphine-generating products, which recently received approval from OPP.