Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in < 1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to -50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Abundance and phenology patterns of two pond-breeding salamanders determine species interactions in natural populations.

Phenology often determines the outcome of interspecific interactions, where early-arriving species often dominate interactions over those arriving later. The effects of phenology on species interactions are especially pronounced in aquatic systems, but the evidence is largely derived from experimental studies. We examined whether differences in breeding phenology between two pond-breeding salamanders (Ambystoma annulatum and A. maculatum) affected metamorph recruitment and demographic traits within natural populations, with the expectation that the fall-breeding A. annulatum would negatively affect the spring-breeding A. maculatum. We monitored populations of each species at five ponds over 4 years using drift fences. Metamorph abundance and survival of A. annulatum were affected by intra- and interspecific processes, whereas metamorph size and date of emigration were primarily influenced by intraspecific effects. Metamorph abundance, snout-vent length, date of emigration and survival for A. maculatum were all predicted by combinations of intra- and interspecific effects, but often showed negative relationships with A. annulatum metamorph traits and abundance. Size and date of metamorphosis were strongly correlated within each species, but in opposite patterns (negative for A. annulatum and positive for A. maculatum), suggesting that the two species use alternative strategies to enhance terrestrial survival and that these factors may influence their interactions. Our results match predictions from experimental studies that suggest recruitment is influenced by intra- and interspecific processes which are determined by phenological differences between species. Incorporating spatiotemporal variability when modeling population dynamics is necessary to understand the importance of phenology in species interactions, especially as shifts in phenology occur under climate change.

Global sensitivity analysis for complex ecological models: a case study of riparian cottonwood population dynamics.

Mechanism-based ecological models are a valuable tool for understanding the drivers of complex ecological systems and for making informed resource-management decisions. However, inaccurate conclusions can be drawn from models with a large degree of uncertainty around multiple parameter estimates if uncertainty is ignored. This is especially true in nonlinear systems with multiple interacting variables. We addressed these issues for a mechanism-based, demographic model of Populus fremontii (Fremont cottonwood), the dominant riparian tree species along southwestern U.S. rivers. Many cottonwood populations have declined following widespread floodplain conversion and flow regulation. As a result, accurate predictive models are needed to analyze effects of future climate change and water management decisions. To quantify effects of parameter uncertainty, we developed an analytical approach that combines global sensitivity analysis (GSA) with classification and regression trees (CART) and Random Forest, a bootstrapping CART method. We used GSA to quantify the interacting effects of the full range of uncertainty around all parameter estimates, Random Forest to rank parameters according to their total effect on model predictions, and CART to identify higher-order interactions. GSA simulations yielded a wide range of predictions, including annual germination frequency of 10-100%, annual first-year survival frequency of 0-50%, and patch occupancy of 0-100%. This variance was explained primarily by complex interactions among abiotic parameters including capillary fringe height, stage-discharge relationship, and floodplain accretion rate, which interacted with biotic factors to affect survival. Model precision was primarily influenced by well-studied parameter estimates with minimal associated uncertainty and was virtually unaffected by parameter estimates for which there are no available empirical data and thus a large degree of uncertainty. Therefore, research to improve model predictions should not always focus on the least-studied parameters, but rather those to which model predictions are most sensitive. We advocate the combined use of global sensitivity analysis, CART, and Random Forest to: (1) prioritize research efforts by ranking variable importance; (2) efficiently improve models by focusing on the most important parameters; and (3) illuminate complex model properties including nonlinear interactions. We present an analytical framework that can be applied to any model with multiple uncertain parameter estimates.

Terrestrial habitat selection and strong density-dependent mortality in recently metamorphosed amphibians.

To predict the effects of terrestrial habitat change on amphibian populations, we need to know how amphibians respond to habitat heterogeneity, and whether habitat choice remains consistent throughout the life-history cycle. We conducted four experiments to evaluate how the spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs, Rana sylvatica (including both overall abundance and localized density), was influenced by habitat choice and habitat structure, and how this relationship changed with spatial scale and behavioral phase. The four experiments included (1) habitat manipulation on replicated 10-ha landscapes surrounding breeding pools; (2) short-term experiments with individual frogs emigrating through a manipulated landscape of 1 m wide hexagonal patches; and habitat manipulations in (3) small (4-m2); and (4) large (100-m2) enclosures with multiple individuals to compare behavior both during and following emigration. The spatial distribution of juvenile wood frogs following emigration resulted from differences in the scale at which juvenile amphibians responded to habitat heterogeneity during active vs. settled behavioral phases. During emigration, juvenile wood frogs responded to coarse-scale variation in habitat (selection between 2.2-ha forest treatments) but not to fine-scale variation. After settling, however, animals showed habitat selection at much smaller scales (2-4 m2). This resulted in high densities of animals in small patches of suitable habitat where they experienced rapid mortality. No evidence of density-dependent habitat selection was seen, with juveniles typically choosing to remain at extremely high densities in high-quality habitat, rather than occupying low-quality habitat. These experiments demonstrate how prediction of the terrestrial distribution of juvenile amphibians requires understanding of the complex behavioral responses to habitat heterogeneity. Understanding these patterns is important, given that human alterations to amphibian habitats may generate extremely high densities of animals, resulting in high density-dependent mortality.

Demographic consequences of terrestrial habitat loss for pool-breeding amphibians: predicting extinction risks associated with inadequate size of buffer zones.

Much of the biodiversity associated with isolated wetlands requires aquatic and terrestrial habitat to maintain viable populations. Current federal wetland regulations in the United States do not protect isolated wetlands or extend protection to surrounding terrestrial habitat. Consequently, some land managers, city planners, and policy makers at the state and local levels are making an effort to protect these wetland and neighboring upland habitats. Balancing human land-use and habitat conservation is challenging, and well-informed land-use policy is hindered by a lack of knowledge of the specific risks of varying amounts of habitat loss. Using projections of wood frog (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamander (Ambystoma maculatum) populations, we related the amount of high-quality terrestrial habitat surrounding isolated wetlands to the decline and risk of extinction of local amphibian populations. These simulations showed that current state-level wetland regulations protecting 30 m or less of surrounding terrestrial habitat are inadequate to support viable populations of pool-breeding amphibians. We also found that species with different life-history strategies responded differently to the loss and degradation of terrestrial habitat. The wood frog, with a short life span and high fecundity, was most sensitive to habitat loss and isolation, whereas the longer-lived spotted salamander with lower fecundity was most sensitive to habitat degradation that lowered adult survival rates. Our model results demonstrate that a high probability of local amphibian population persistence requires sufficient terrestrial habitat, the maintenance of habitat quality, and connectivity among local populations. Our results emphasize the essential role of adequate terrestrial habitat to the maintenance of wetland biodiversity and ecosystem function and offer a means of quantifying the risks associated with terrestrial habitat loss and degradation.

Effects of timber harvesting on pond-breeding amphibian persistence: testing the evacuation hypothesis.

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibians following timber harvest. However, direct evidence concerning the mechanisms of population decline is lacking and hinders attempts to develop conservation or recovery plans and solutions for forest species. We summarized the mechanisms by which abundance of amphibians may initially decline following timber harvest into three testable hypotheses: (1) mortality, (2) retreat, and (3) evacuation. Here, we tested the evacuation hypothesis within a large-scale, replicated experiment. We used drift fences with pitfall traps to capture pond-breeding amphibians moving out of experimental clearcut quadrants and into control quadrants at four replicate arrays located within the Daniel Boone Conservation Area on the upper Ozark Plateau in Warren County, Missouri, USA. During the preharvest year of 2004, only 51.6% of the 312 individuals captured were moving out of pre-clearcut quadrants, and movement did not differ from random. In contrast, during both postharvest years of 2005 and 2006, the number of captures along the quadrant edge increased, and a higher proportion of individuals (59.9% and 56.6%, respectively, by year) were moving out of clearcut quadrants than entering. Salamanders moved out of clearcuts in large percentages (Ambystoma annulatum, 78.2% in 2005, 78.2% in 2006; A. maculatum, 64.0% in 2005, 57.1% in 2006). Frogs and toads also moved out of clearcut quadrants, but in lower percentages (Bufo americanus, 59.6% in 2005, 53.3% in 2006; Rana clamitans, 52.7% in 2006). Salamanders moved out of clearcuts with low-wood treatments more than out of clearcuts with high-wood treatments. Movement of salamanders out of clearcuts was independent of sex. Estimated movement out of clearcuts represented between 8.7% and 35.0% of the total breeding adults captured for two species of salamanders. Although we recognize that some portion of the amphibian population may retreat underground for short periods and others may not survive the effects of timber harvest, these data are the first direct evidence showing that individuals are capable of leaving clearcuts and shifting habitat use.

Density dependence in the terrestrial life history stage of two anurans.

Populations of species with complex life cycles have the potential to be regulated at multiple life history stages. However, research tends to focus on single stage density-dependence, which can lead to inaccurate conclusions about population regulation and subsequently hinder conservation efforts. In amphibians, many studies have demonstrated strong effects of larval density and have often assumed that populations are regulated at this life history stage. However, studies examining density regulation in the terrestrial stages are rare, and the functional relationships between terrestrial density and vital rates in amphibians are unknown. We determined the effects of population density on survival, growth and reproductive development in the terrestrial stage of two amphibians by raising juvenile wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and American toads (Bufo americanus) at six densities in terrestrial enclosures. Density had strong negative effects on survival, growth and reproductive development in both species. We fitted a priori recruitment functions to describe the relationship between initial density and the density of survivors after one year, and determined the functional relationship between initial density and mass after one year. Animals raised at the lowest densities experienced growth and survival rates that were over twice as great as those raised at the highest density. All female wood frogs in the lowest density treatment showed signs of reproductive development, compared to only 6% in the highest density treatment. Female American toads reached minimum reproductive size only at low densities, and male wood frogs and American toads reached maturity only in the three lowest density treatments. Our results demonstrate that in the complex life cycle of amphibians, density in the terrestrial stage can reduce growth, survival and reproductive development and may play an important role in amphibian population regulation. We discuss the implications of these results for population regulation in complex life cycles and for amphibian conservation.