Field validity of Static-99/R scores in a statewide sample of 34,687 convicted sexual offenders.

The Static-99 (and revision, the Static-99R) reflect the most researched and widely used approach to sex offender risk assessment. Because the measure is so widely applied in jurisdictions beyond those on which it was developed, it becomes crucial to examine its field validity and the degree to which published norms and recidivism rates apply to other jurisdictions. We present a new and greatly expanded field study of the predictive validity (M = 5.23 years follow-up) of the Static-99 as applied system-wide in Texas (N = 34,687). Results revealed stronger predictive validity than a prior Texas field study, especially among offenders scored after the release of an updated scoring manual in 2003 (AUC = .66 to .67, d = .65 to .69), when field reliability was also stronger. But calibration analyses revealed that the Static-99R routine sample norms led to a significant overestimation of risk in Texas, especially for offenders with scores ranging from 1 to 5. We used logistic regression to develop local Texas recidivism norms (with confidence intervals) for Static-99R scores. Overall, findings highlight the importance of revisiting and updating field study findings, and the potential benefits of using statewide data to develop local norms. (PsycINFO Database Record

Field measures of psychopathy and sexual deviance as predictors of recidivism among sexual offenders.

Offenders with high levels of both psychopathy and deviant sexual interests are often described as being more prone to recidivate than other sexual offenders, and many forensic evaluators report considering this psychopathy and sexual deviance interaction when coming to conclusions about sex offender risk. However, empirical support for the interaction comes from studies using sexual deviance measures that are rarely used in the field. We examined the ability of Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) field scores and possible field measures of sexual deviance (e.g., paraphilia diagnosis, offense characteristics) to predict sexual recidivism among 687 offenders released after being evaluated for postrelease civil commitment (M follow-up = 10.5 years). PCL-R total scores and antisocial personality diagnoses were predictive of a combined category of violent or sexual recidivism, but not sexual recidivism. Paraphilia diagnoses and offense characteristics were not associated with an increased likelihood of reoffending. There was no evidence that those with high levels of both psychopathy and sexual deviance were more likely than others to reoffend. Although the psychopathy and sexual deviance interaction findings from prior studies are large and compelling, our findings highlight the need for research examining the best ways to translate those findings into routine practice. (PsycINFO Database Record

Personality Assessment Inventory Scores as Predictors of Evaluation Referrals, Evaluator Opinions, and Commitment Decisions in Sexually Violent Predator Cases.

We used data from more than 1,500 offenders to examine the association between Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991 ) scores and progress through the sexually violent predator (SVP) screening, evaluation, and commitment process. There was no clear association between PAI scores and referrals for full evaluations, but PAI scores were small to moderate predictors of evaluator opinions and diagnoses among offenders who underwent full evaluations. Higher Antisocial Features (ANT) scores were associated with diagnoses of antisocial personality disorder, but this association was moderated by offender response style. ANT scores were more strongly associated with antisocial personality disorder diagnoses among those responding defensively (d = .71) than among those responding openly (d = .48). The mean ANT score among defensive responders diagnosed with antisocial personality disorder was about 55T, suggesting that even moderate ANT scale elevations could indicate a clinically significant level of antisocial traits among some offenders.

Jurors report that risk measure scores matter in sexually violent predator trials, but that other factors matter more.

After deliberating to a verdict, jurors (N = 462) from 40 sexually violent predator (SVP) trials completed a questionnaire asking them to rate the extent to which risk measure scores, diagnoses, expert witness testimony, and offender characteristics described during the trials influenced their commitment decisions. Jurors reported that offenders' sexual offending history, failure to change, and lack of remorse had the strongest influence on their commitment decisions. They reported that testimony about risk instrument scores (e.g., Static-99) and psychopathy had less influence on their decisions, but those who did report being influenced by instrument results were especially likely to view the offender as being at a high risk for reoffending. Overall, findings suggest that SVP jurors view risk measure results as important, but not as important as other offender, offense, and testimony characteristics, including some that have limited relevance to recidivism risk. Thus, findings also suggest that experts may need to better educate jurors regarding factors that do and do not relate to recidivism risk.

Rater differences in psychopathy measure scoring and predictive validity.

Although field studies reveal that some forensic evaluators tend to assign higher psychopathy measure scores to sexual offenders than others, the extent to which these findings apply to psychopathy measure scoring in other contexts is unclear. And no study has examined the impact of evaluator differences in scoring on predictive validity. We used data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study to examine whether there were rater differences in psychopathy measure scoring and predictive effects among trained raters in a rigorous research context. The proportion of variance in Psychopathy Checklist: Screening Version (Hart, Cox, & Hare, 1995) scores attributable to raters was larger for Part 1 (14%) than Part 2 (4%) scores. The association between Facet 4 scores and future violence was stronger among evaluators who assigned higher and more variable Facet 4 scores, but there were no similar effects for other PCL:SV scores. Although there was only limited evidence for an association between PCL:SV scoring tendencies and predictive validity, findings show that mean differences in scoring have implications for score interpretation, with the cut score that indicates a high level of risk being lower when it comes from a rater who assigns relatively low scores compared to a rater who assigns relatively high scores. These findings suggest that evaluators should carefully consider their own psychopathy measure scoring tendencies across cases and the extent to which these tendencies are consistent with the normative sample scores that form the basis of their psychopathy measure score interpretations.

Does field reliability for Static-99 scores decrease as scores increase?

This study examined the field reliability of Static-99 (Hanson & Thornton, 2000) scores among 21,983 sex offenders and focused on whether rater agreement decreased as scores increased. As expected, agreement was lowest for high-scoring offenders. Initial and most recent Static-99 scores were identical for only about 40% of offenders who had been assigned a score of 6 during their initial evaluations, but for more than 60% of offenders who had been assigned a score of 2 or lower. In addition, the size of the difference between scores increased as scores increased, with pairs of scores differing by 2 or more points for about 30% of offenders scoring in the high-risk range. Because evaluators and systems use high Static-99 scores to identify sexual offenders who may require intensive supervision or even postrelease civil commitment, it is important to recognize that there may be more measurement error for high scores than low scores and to consider adopting procedures for minimizing or accounting for measurement error. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

Borderline personality symptomatology as a mediator of the link between child maltreatment and adult suicide potential.

UNLABELLED: The present study tests borderline personality symptoms as meditational pathways between child maltreatment and suicide potential among college students. A sample of 268 participants completed a questionnaire battery including demographic data, the Comprehensive Child Maltreatment Scale, Inventory of Altered Self-Capacities, and Personality Assessment Inventory. RESULTS: Three multiple mediation models (1 for each type of child maltreatment) were conducted. Results demonstrated that the same set of borderline personality characteristics mediated the relations between each type of child maltreatment (i.e., physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect) and suicide potential. The mediating borderline symptoms were affective dysregulation, identity problems, and paranoia. The meditation model is discussed with regard to attachment, trauma, and suicide theories, as well as suicide risk assessment.