Trophic amplification: A model intercomparison of climate driven changes in marine food webs.

Marine animal biomass is expected to decrease in the 21st century due to climate driven changes in ocean environmental conditions. Previous studies suggest that the magnitude of the decline in primary production on apex predators could be amplified through the trophodynamics of marine food webs, leading to larger decreases in the biomass of predators relative to the decrease in primary production, a mechanism called trophic amplification. We compared relative changes in producer and consumer biomass or production in the global ocean to assess the extent of trophic amplification. We used simulations from nine marine ecosystem models (MEMs) from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Models Intercomparison Project forced by two Earth System Models under the high greenhouse gas emissions Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5) and a scenario of no fishing. Globally, total consumer biomass is projected to decrease by 16.7 ± 9.5% more than net primary production (NPP) by 2090-2099 relative to 1995-2014, with substantial variations among MEMs and regions. Total consumer biomass is projected to decrease almost everywhere in the ocean (80% of the world's oceans) in the model ensemble. In 40% of the world's oceans, consumer biomass was projected to decrease more than NPP. Additionally, in another 36% of the world's oceans consumer biomass is expected to decrease even as projected NPP increases. By analysing the biomass response within food webs in available MEMs, we found that model parameters and structures contributed to more complex responses than a consistent amplification of climate impacts of higher trophic levels. Our study provides additional insights into the ecological mechanisms that will impact marine ecosystems, thereby informing model and scenario development.

Demystifying global climate models for use in the life sciences.

For each assessment cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), researchers in the life sciences are called upon to provide evidence to policymakers planning for a changing future. This research increasingly relies on highly technical and complex outputs from climate models. The strengths and weaknesses of these data may not be fully appreciated beyond the climate modelling community; therefore, uninformed use of raw or preprocessed climate data could lead to overconfident or spurious conclusions. We provide an accessible introduction to climate model outputs that is intended to empower the life science community to robustly address questions about human and natural systems in a changing world.

Global food insecurity and famine from reduced crop, marine fishery and livestock production due to climate disruption from nuclear war soot injection.

Atmospheric soot loadings from nuclear weapon detonation would cause disruptions to the Earth's climate, limiting terrestrial and aquatic food production. Here, we use climate, crop and fishery models to estimate the impacts arising from six scenarios of stratospheric soot injection, predicting the total food calories available in each nation post-war after stored food is consumed. In quantifying impacts away from target areas, we demonstrate that soot injections larger than 5 Tg would lead to mass food shortages, and livestock and aquatic food production would be unable to compensate for reduced crop output, in almost all countries. Adaptation measures such as food waste reduction would have limited impact on increasing available calories. We estimate more than 2 billion people could die from nuclear war between India and Pakistan, and more than 5 billion could die from a war between the United States and Russia-underlining the importance of global cooperation in preventing nuclear war.

Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems.

Projections of climate change impacts on marine ecosystems have revealed long-term declines in global marine animal biomass and unevenly distributed impacts on fisheries. Here we apply an enhanced suite of global marine ecosystem models from the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP), forced by new-generation Earth system model outputs from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), to provide insights into how projected climate change will affect future ocean ecosystems. Compared with the previous generation CMIP5-forced Fish-MIP ensemble, the new ensemble ecosystem simulations show a greater decline in mean global ocean animal biomass under both strong-mitigation and high-emissions scenarios due to elevated warming, despite greater uncertainty in net primary production in the high-emissions scenario. Regional shifts in the direction of biomass changes highlight the continued and urgent need to reduce uncertainty in the projected responses of marine ecosystems to climate change to help support adaptation planning.

Potential ecological impacts of climate intervention by reflecting sunlight to cool Earth.

As the effects of anthropogenic climate change become more severe, several approaches for deliberate climate intervention to reduce or stabilize Earth's surface temperature have been proposed. Solar radiation modification (SRM) is one potential approach to partially counteract anthropogenic warming by reflecting a small proportion of the incoming solar radiation to increase Earth's albedo. While climate science research has focused on the predicted climate effects of SRM, almost no studies have investigated the impacts that SRM would have on ecological systems. The impacts and risks posed by SRM would vary by implementation scenario, anthropogenic climate effects, geographic region, and by ecosystem, community, population, and organism. Complex interactions among Earth's climate system and living systems would further affect SRM impacts and risks. We focus here on stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI), a well-studied and relatively feasible SRM scheme that is likely to have a large impact on Earth's surface temperature. We outline current gaps in knowledge about both helpful and harmful predicted effects of SAI on ecological systems. Desired ecological outcomes might also inform development of future SAI implementation scenarios. In addition to filling these knowledge gaps, increased collaboration between ecologists and climate scientists would identify a common set of SAI research goals and improve the communication about potential SAI impacts and risks with the public. Without this collaboration, forecasts of SAI impacts will overlook potential effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services for humanity.

Identifying global favourable habitat for early juvenile loggerhead sea turtles.

Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) nest globally on sandy beaches, with hatchlings dispersing into the open ocean. Where these juveniles go and what habitat they rely on remains a critical research question for informing conservation priorities. Here a high-resolution Earth system model is used to determine the biophysical geography of favourable ocean habitat for loggerhead sea turtles globally during their first year of life on the basis of ocean current transport, thermal constraints and food availability (defined here as the summed lower trophic level carbon biomass). Dispersal is simulated from eight major nesting sites distributed across the globe in four representative years using particle tracking. Dispersal densities are identified for all turtles, and for the top 15% 'best-fed' turtles that have not encountered metabolically unfavourable temperatures. We find that, globally, rookeries are positioned to disperse to regions where the lower trophic biomass is greatest within loggerheads' thermal range. Six out of the eight nesting sites are associated with strong coastal boundary currents that rapidly transport hatchlings to subtropical-subpolar gyre boundaries; narrow spatial migratory corridors exist for 'best-fed' turtles associated with these sites. Two other rookeries are located in exceptionally high-biomass tropical regions fuelled by natural iron fertilization. 'Best-fed' turtles tend to be associated with lower temperatures, highlighting the inverse relationship between temperature and lower trophic biomass. The annual mean isotherms between 20°C and the thermal tolerance of juvenile loggerheads are a rough proxy for favourable habitat for loggerheads from rookeries associated with boundary currents. Our results can be used to constrain regions for conservation efforts for each subpopulation, and better identify foraging habitat for this critical early life stage.

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war.

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong prewar fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing-similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1 to 2 y) catch by at most ∼30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ∼70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective prewar management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ∼43 ± 35% of today's global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

Rapidly expanding nuclear arsenals in Pakistan and India portend regional and global catastrophe.

Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centers and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield. The smoke will rise into the upper troposphere, be self-lofted into the stratosphere, and spread globally within weeks. Surface sunlight will decline by 20 to 35%, cooling the global surface by 2° to 5°C and reducing precipitation by 15 to 30%, with larger regional impacts. Recovery takes more than 10 years. Net primary productivity declines 15 to 30% on land and 5 to 15% in oceans threatening mass starvation and additional worldwide collateral fatalities.

Identification of West Eurasian mitochondrial haplogroups by mtDNA SNP screening: results of the 2006-2007 EDNAP collaborative exercise.

The European DNA Profiling (EDNAP) Group performed a collaborative exercise on a mitochondrial (mt) DNA screening assay that targeted 16 nucleotide positions in the coding region and allowed for the discrimination of major west Eurasian mtDNA haplogroups. The purpose of the exercise was to evaluate the stability and reproducibility of the self-developed multiplex-PCR and multiplex-single base extension kit by blind-testing saliva and hair shaft samples provided by the organizing laboratory. The overall success rate in obtaining useful results was high given that some of the participating laboratories had no previous experience with the technology and/or mtDNA analysis. The results of this collaborative exercise stimulate the expansion of screening methods in forensic laboratories to increase efficiency and performance of mtDNA typing, and thus demonstrates that mtDNA SNP typing is a powerful tool for forensic casework analysis.

Forensic validation of the SNPforID 52-plex assay.

The advantages of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) typing in forensic genetics are well known and include a wider choice of high-throughput typing platforms, lower mutation rates, and improved analysis of degraded samples. However, if SNPs are to become a realistic supplement to current short tandem repeat (STR) typing methods, they must be shown to successfully and reliably analyse the challenging samples commonly encountered in casework situations. The European SNPforID consortium, supported by the EU GROWTH programme, has developed a multiplex of 52 SNPs for forensic analysis, with the amplification of all 52 loci in a single reaction followed by two single base extension (SBE) reactions which are detected with capillary electrophoresis. In order to validate this assay, a variety of DNA extracts were chosen to represent problems such as low copy number and degradation that are commonly seen in forensic casework. A total of 40 extracts were used in the study, each of which was sent to two of the five participating laboratories for typing in duplicate or triplicate. Laboratories were instructed to carry out their analyses as if they were dealing with normal casework samples. Results were reported back to the coordinating laboratory and compared with those obtained from traditional STR typing of the same extracts using Powerplex 16 (Promega). These results indicate that, although the ability to successfully type good quality, low copy number extracts is lower, the 52-plex SNP assay performed better than STR typing on degraded samples, and also on samples that were both degraded and of limited quantity, suggesting that SNP analysis can provide advantages over STR analysis in forensically relevant circumstances. However, there were also additional problems arising from contamination and primer quality issues and these are discussed.

A multiplex assay with 52 single nucleotide polymorphisms for human identification.

A total of 52 SNPs reported to be polymorphic in European, Asian and African populations were selected. Of these, 42 were from the distal regions of each autosome (except chromosome 19). Nearly all selected SNPs were located at least 100 kb distant from known genes and commonly used STRs. We established a highly sensitive and reproducible SNP-typing method with amplification of all 52 DNA fragments in one PCR reaction followed by detection of the SNPs with two single base extension reactions analysed using CE. The amplicons ranged from 59 to 115 bp in length. Complete SNP profiles were obtained from 500 pg DNA. The 52 loci were efficiently amplified from degraded samples where previously only partial STR profiles had been obtained. A total of 700 individuals from Denmark, Greenland, Somalia, Turkey, China, Germany, Taiwan, Thailand and Japan were typed, and the allele frequencies estimated. All 52 SNPs were polymorphic in the three major population groups. The mean match probability was at least 5.0 x 10(-19) in the populations studied. Typical paternity indices ranged from 336 000 in Asians to 549 000 in Europeans. Details of the 52 SNP loci and population data generated in this work are freely available at http://www.snpforid.org.

Practical synthesis of (Z)-polyaromatic and heteroaromatic vinylacetylenes.

[reaction: seet text] Two synthetic routes to several (Z)-polyaromatic and heteroaromatic substituted vinylacetylenes are described. The nature of aryl- or heteroaryl-substituted carboxaldehyde used as starting material dictated the choice of Wittig salt employed. A very attractive way to construct polyaromatic and pyridine-containing enynes is the reaction of polyaromatic and pyridine-containing aldehydes with bromomethyltriphenylphosphonium bromide in the presence of potassium tert-butoxide followed by a Sonogashira desilylation procedure (method B).

Late recognition of SARS in nosocomial outbreak, Toronto.

Late recognition of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) was associated with no known SARS contact, hospitalization before the nosocomial outbreak was recognized, symptom onset while hospitalized, wards with SARS clusters, and postoperative status. SARS is difficult to recognize in hospitalized patients with a variety of underlying conditions in the absence of epidemiologic links.