Global diversity and balancing selection of 23 leading Plasmodium falciparum candidate vaccine antigens.

Investigation of the diversity of malaria parasite antigens can help prioritize and validate them as vaccine candidates and identify the most common variants for inclusion in vaccine formulations. Studies of vaccine candidates of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, have focused on a handful of well-known antigens, while several others have never been studied. Here we examine the global diversity and population structure of leading vaccine candidate antigens of P. falciparum using the MalariaGEN Pf3K (version 5.1) resource, comprising more than 2600 genomes from 15 malaria endemic countries. A stringent variant calling pipeline was used to extract high quality antigen gene 'haplotypes' from the global dataset and a new R-package named VaxPack was used to streamline population genetic analyses. In addition, a newly developed algorithm that enables spatial averaging of selection pressure on 3D protein structures was applied to the dataset. We analysed the genes encoding 23 leading and novel candidate malaria vaccine antigens including csp, trap, eba175, ama1, rh5, and CelTOS. Our analysis shows that current malaria vaccine formulations are based on rare haplotypes and thus may have limited efficacy against natural parasite populations. High levels of diversity with evidence of balancing selection was detected for most of the erythrocytic and pre-erythrocytic antigens. Measures of natural selection were then mapped to 3D protein structures to predict targets of functional antibodies. For some antigens, geographical variation in the intensity and distribution of these signals on the 3D structure suggests adaptation to different human host or mosquito vector populations. This study provides an essential framework for the diversity of P. falciparum antigens to be considered in the design of the next generation of malaria vaccines.

Antibodies to Intercellular Adhesion Molecule 1-Binding Plasmodium falciparum Erythrocyte Membrane Protein 1-DBLß Are Biomarkers of Protective Immunity to Malaria in a Cohort of Young Children from Papua New Guinea.

Plasmodium falciparum erythrocyte membrane protein 1 (PfEMP1) mediates parasite sequestration to the cerebral microvasculature via binding of DBLß domains to intercellular adhesion molecule 1 (ICAM1) and is associated with severe cerebral malaria. In a cohort of 187 young children from Papua New Guinea (PNG), we examined baseline levels of antibody to the ICAM1-binding PfEMP1 domain, DBLß3PF11_0521, in comparison to four control antigens, including NTS-DBLα and CIDR1 domains from another group A variant and a group B/C variant. Antibody levels for the group A antigens were strongly associated with age and exposure. Antibody responses to DBLß3PF11_0521 were associated with a 37% reduced risk of high-density clinical malaria in the follow-up period (adjusted incidence risk ratio [aIRR] = 0.63 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.45 to 0.88; P = 0.007]) and a 25% reduction in risk of low-density clinical malaria (aIRR = 0.75 [95% CI, 0.55 to 1.01; P = 0.06]), while there was no such association for other variants. Children who experienced severe malaria also had significantly lower levels of antibody to DBLß3PF11_0521 and the other group A domains than those that experienced nonsevere malaria. Furthermore, a subset of PNG DBLß sequences had ICAM1-binding motifs, formed a distinct phylogenetic cluster, and were similar to sequences from other areas of endemicity. PfEMP1 variants associated with these DBLß domains were enriched for DC4 and DC13 head structures implicated in endothelial protein C receptor (EPCR) binding and severe malaria, suggesting conservation of dual binding specificities. These results provide further support for the development of specific classes of PfEMP1 as vaccine candidates and as biomarkers for protective immunity against clinical P. falciparum malaria.

Increasingly inbred and fragmented populations of Plasmodium vivax associated with the eastward decline in malaria transmission across the Southwest Pacific.

The human malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax is more resistant to malaria control strategies than Plasmodium falciparum, and maintains high genetic diversity even when transmission is low. To investigate whether declining P. vivax transmission leads to increasing population structure that would facilitate elimination, we genotyped samples from across the Southwest Pacific region, which experiences an eastward decline in malaria transmission, as well as samples from two time points at one site (Tetere, Solomon Islands) during intensified malaria control. Analysis of 887 P. vivax microsatellite haplotypes from hyperendemic Papua New Guinea (PNG, n = 443), meso-hyperendemic Solomon Islands (n = 420), and hypoendemic Vanuatu (n = 24) revealed increasing population structure and multilocus linkage disequilibrium yet a modest decline in diversity as transmission decreases over space and time. In Solomon Islands, which has had sustained control efforts for 20 years, and Vanuatu, which has experienced sustained low transmission for many years, significant population structure was observed at different spatial scales. We conclude that control efforts will eventually impact P. vivax population structure and with sustained pressure, populations may eventually fragment into a limited number of clustered foci that could be targeted for elimination.

Nationwide genetic surveillance of Plasmodium vivax in Papua New Guinea reveals heterogeneous transmission dynamics and routes of migration amongst subdivided populations.

The Asia Pacific Leaders in Malaria Alliance (APLMA) have committed to eliminate malaria from the region by 2030. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has the highest malaria burden in the Asia-Pacific region but with the intensification of control efforts since 2005, transmission has been dramatically reduced and Plasmodium vivax is now the dominant malaria infection in some parts of the country. To gain a better understanding of the transmission dynamics and migration patterns of P. vivax in PNG, here we investigate population structure in eight geographically and ecologically distinct regions of the country. A total of 219 P. vivax isolates (16-30 per population) were successfully haplotyped using 10 microsatellite markers. A wide range of genetic diversity (He=0.37-0.87, Rs=3.60-7.58) and significant multilocus linkage disequilibrium (LD) was observed in six of the eight populations (IAS=0.08-0.15 p-value<0.05) reflecting a spectrum of transmission intensities across the country. Genetic differentiation between regions was evident (Jost's D=0.07-0.72), with increasing divergence of populations with geographic distance. Overall, P. vivax isolates clustered into three major genetic populations subdividing the Mainland lowland and coastal regions, the Islands and the Highlands. P. vivax gene flow follows major human migration routes, and there was higher gene flow amongst Mainland parasite populations than among Island populations. The Central Province (samples collected in villages close to the capital city, Port Moresby), acts as a sink for imported infections from the three major endemic areas. These insights into P. vivax transmission dynamics and population networks will inform targeted strategies to contain malaria infections and to prevent the spread of drug resistance in PNG.

Higher Complexity of Infection and Genetic Diversity of Plasmodium vivax Than Plasmodium falciparum Across All Malaria Transmission Zones of Papua New Guinea.

Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax have varying transmission dynamics that are informed by molecular epidemiology. This study aimed to determine the complexity of infection and genetic diversity of P. vivax and P. falciparum throughout Papua New Guinea (PNG) to evaluate transmission dynamics across the country. In 2008-2009, a nationwide malaria indicator survey collected 8,936 samples from all 16 endemic provinces of PNG. Of these, 892 positive P. vivax samples were genotyped at PvMS16 and PvmspF3, and 758 positive P. falciparum samples were genotyped at Pfmsp2. The data were analyzed for multiplicity of infection (MOI) and genetic diversity. Overall, P. vivax had higher polyclonality (71%) and mean MOI (2.32) than P. falciparum (20%, 1.39). These measures were significantly associated with prevalence for P. falciparum but not for P. vivax. The genetic diversity of P. vivax (PvMS16: expected heterozygosity = 0.95, 0.85-0.98; PvMsp1F3: 0.78, 0.66-0.89) was higher and less variable than that of P. falciparum (Pfmsp2: 0.89, 0.65-0.97). Significant associations of MOI with allelic richness (rho = 0.69, P = 0.009) and expected heterozygosity (rho = 0.87, P < 0.001) were observed for P. falciparum. Conversely, genetic diversity was not correlated with polyclonality nor mean MOI for P. vivax. The results demonstrate higher complexity of infection and genetic diversity of P. vivax across the country. Although P. falciparum shows a strong association of these parameters with prevalence, a lack of association was observed for P. vivax and is consistent with higher potential for outcrossing of this species.

Merozoite Antigens of Plasmodium falciparum Elicit Strain-Transcending Opsonizing Immunity.

It is unclear whether naturally acquired immunity to Plasmodium falciparum results from the acquisition of antibodies to multiple, diverse antigens or to fewer, highly conserved antigens. Moreover, the specific antibody functions required for malaria immunity are unknown, and hence informative immunological assays are urgently needed to address these knowledge gaps and guide vaccine development. In this study, we investigated whether merozoite-opsonizing antibodies are associated with protection from malaria in a strain-specific or strain-transcending manner by using a novel field isolate and an immune plasma-matched cohort from Papua New Guinea with our validated assay of merozoite phagocytosis. Highly correlated opsonization responses were observed across the 15 parasite strains tested, as were strong associations with protection (composite phagocytosis score across all strains in children uninfected at baseline: hazard ratio of 0.15, 95% confidence interval of 0.04 to 0.63). Opsonizing antibodies had a strong strain-transcending component, and the opsonization of transgenic parasites deficient for MSP3, MSP6, MSPDBL1, or P. falciparum MSP1-19 (PfMSP1-19) was similar to that of wild-type parasites. We have provided the first evidence that merozoite opsonization is predominantly strain transcending, and the highly consistent associations with protection against diverse parasite strains strongly supports the use of merozoite opsonization as a correlate of immunity for field studies and vaccine trials. These results demonstrate that conserved domains within merozoite antigens targeted by opsonization generate strain-transcending immune responses and represent promising vaccine candidates.

Phylogeography and epidemic history of hepatitis C virus genotype 4 in Africa.

HCV genotype 4 is prevalent in many African countries, yet little is known about the genotype׳s epidemic history on the continent. We present a comprehensive study of the molecular epidemiology of genotype 4. To address the deficit of data from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) we PCR amplified 60 new HCV isolates from the DRC, resulting in 33 core- and 48 NS5B-region sequences. Our data, together with genotype 4 database sequences, were analysed using Bayesian phylogenetic approaches. We find three well-supported intra-genotypic lineages and estimate that the genotype 4 common ancestor existed around 1733 (1650-1805). We show that genotype 4 originated in central Africa and that multiple lineages have been exported to north Africa since ~1850, including subtype 4a which dominates the epidemic in Egypt. We speculate on the causes of the historical intra-continental spread of genotype 4, including population movements during World War 2.

Infection frequency of hepatitis C virus and IL28B haplotypes in Papua New Guinea, Fiji, and Kiribati.

It has been estimated that there are more than 60 million Hepatitis C virus (HCV) carriers in the World Health Organisation's Western Pacific region (WHO-WPR), where liver cancer is among the top three causes of cancer death. WHO and the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention report the prevalence of HCV in the South Pacific islands (countries within the WHO-WPR) to be high (5-10% and >2% respectively). However, since HCV is not tested for in many of these countries, there is sparse data available to support this assertion. We screened ∼2000 apparently healthy individuals from Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Kiribati and found a sero-prevalence of 2.0%, 0.1% and 0%, respectively. All sero-positive samples tested negative for HCV RNA. Curious as to why all the sero-positive individuals were negative for HCV-RNA, we also screened them for the HCV protective IL28B SNP markers rs12979860 and rs8099917. All antibody-positive participants bar one had HCV protective haplotypes. Our results suggest that HCV is present in these Pacific island countries, albeit at a prevalence lower than previous estimates. As none of our participants had undergone antiviral treatment, and therefore must have cleared infection naturally, we hypothesise that genotypes 1 and/or 4 are circulating in South Pacific Island people and that these peoples are genetically predisposed to be more likely to spontaneous resolve HCV infection than to become chronic carriers.

Hepatitis C virus infections in the Democratic Republic of Congo exhibit a cohort effect.

The prevalence and genetic diversity of hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human pegivirus (HPgV) in many regions of sub-Saharan Africa is poorly characterized, including in the Democratic Republic of Congo--the largest country in the region and one of the most populous. To address this situation we conducted a molecular epidemiological survey of HCV and HPgV (previously named GB Virus C or hepatitis G virus) in samples collected in 2007 from 299 males from the DRC, whose ages ranged from 21 to 71 years old. Samples were tested for the presence of HCV antibodies by ELISA and reactive samples were subsequently tested for HCV RNA using RT-PCR in which both the HCV Core and NS5B genome regions were amplified. Remaining samples were tested for HPgV RNA and the HPgV NS3 genome region of positive samples was amplified. For HCV, 13.7% of the samples were seropositive (41/299) but only 3.7% were viremic (11/299). HPgV RNA was found in 12.7% (33/259) of samples. HCV viremia was strongly associated with age; the percentage of samples that contained detectable HCV RNA was ~0.5% in those younger than 50 and 13% in those older than 50. Our study represents the first systematic survey of HCV genetic diversity in the DRC. HCV sequences obtained belonged to diverse lineages of genotype 4, including subtypes 4c, 4 k, 4 l and 4r, plus one unclassified lineage that may constitute a new subtype. These data suggest that HCV in the DRC exhibits an age 'cohort effect', as has been recently reported in neighbouring countries, and are consistent with the hypothesis that HCV transmission rates were higher in the mid-twentieth century, possibly as a result of parenteral, iatrogenic, or other unidentified factors. Different HCV subtypes were associated with individuals of different ages, implying that HCV infection in the DRC may have arisen through multiple separate HCV epidemics with different causes.

The Q2 mitochondrial haplogroup in Oceania.

Many details surrounding the origins of the peoples of Oceania remain to be resolved, and as a step towards this we report seven new complete mitochondrial genomes from the Q2a haplogroup, from Papua New Guinea, Fiji and Kiribati. This brings the total to eleven Q2 genomes now available. The Q haplogroup (that includes Q2) is an old and diverse lineage in Near Oceania, and is reasonably common; within our sample set of 430, 97 are of the Q haplogroup. However, only 8 are Q2, and we report 7 here. The tree with all complete Q genomes is proven to be minimal. The dating estimate for the origin of Q2 (around 35 Kya) reinforces the understanding that humans have been in Near Oceania for tens of thousands of years; nevertheless the Polynesian maternal haplogroups remain distinctive. A major focus now, with regard to Polynesian ancestry, is to address the differences and timing of the 'Melanesian' contribution to the maternal and paternal lineages as people moved further and further into Remote Oceania. Input from other fields such as anthropology, history and linguistics is required for a better understanding and interpretation of the genetic data.

Changing epidemiology of human parvovirus 4 infection in sub-Saharan Africa.

Human parvovirus 4 infections are primarily associated with parenteral exposure in western countries. By ELISA, we demonstrate frequent seropositivity for antibody to parvovirus 4 viral protein 2 among adult populations throughout sub-Saharan Africa (Burkina Faso, 37%; Cameroon, 25%; Democratic Republic of the Congo, 35%; South Africa, 20%), which implies existence of alternative transmission routes.

Paternal and maternal ages at conception and risk of bipolar affective disorder in their offspring.

BACKGROUND: A consistent association between paternal age and their offspring's risk of schizophrenia has been observed, with no independent association with maternal age. The relationship of paternal and maternal ages with risk of bipolar affective disorders (BPAD) in the offspring is less clear. The present study aimed at testing the hypothesis that paternal age is associated with their offspring's risk of BPAD, whereas maternal age is not. METHOD: This population-based cohort study was conducted with individuals born in Sweden during 1973-1980 and still resident there at age 16 years. Outcome was first hospital admission with a diagnosis of BPAD. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using Cox's proportional hazard regression. RESULTS: After adjustment for all potential confounding variables except maternal age, the HR for risk of BPAD for each 10-year increase in paternal age was 1.28 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.48], but this fell to 1.20 (95% CI 0.97-1.48) after adjusting for maternal age. A similar result was found for maternal age and risk of BPAD [HR 1.30 (95% CI 1.08-1.56) before adjustment for paternal age, HR 1.12 (95% CI 0.86-1.45) after adjustment]. The HR associated with having either parent aged 30 years or over was 1.26 (95% CI 1.01-1.57) and it was 1.45 (95% CI 1.16-1.81) if both parents were >30 years. CONCLUSIONS: Unlike schizophrenia, the risk of BPAD seems to be associated with both paternal and maternal ages.

Early penguin fossils, plus mitochondrial genomes, calibrate avian evolution.

Testing models of macroevolution, and especially the sufficiency of microevolutionary processes, requires good collaboration between molecular biologists and paleontologists. We report such a test for events around the Late Cretaceous by describing the earliest penguin fossils, analyzing complete mitochondrial genomes from an albatross, a petrel, and a loon, and describe the gradual decline of pterosaurs at the same time modern birds radiate. The penguin fossils comprise four naturally associated skeletons from the New Zealand Waipara Greensand, a Paleocene (early Tertiary) formation just above a well-known Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary site. The fossils, in a new genus (Waimanu), provide a lower estimate of 61-62 Ma for the divergence between penguins and other birds and thus establish a reliable calibration point for avian evolution. Combining fossil calibration points, DNA sequences, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analysis, the penguin calibrations imply a radiation of modern (crown group) birds in the Late Cretaceous. This includes a conservative estimate that modern sea and shorebird lineages diverged at least by the Late Cretaceous about 74 +/- 3 Ma (Campanian). It is clear that modern birds from at least the latest Cretaceous lived at the same time as archaic birds including Hesperornis, Ichthyornis, and the diverse Enantiornithiformes. Pterosaurs, which also coexisted with early crown birds, show notable changes through the Late Cretaceous. There was a decrease in taxonomic diversity, and small- to medium-sized species disappeared well before the end of the Cretaceous. A simple reading of the fossil record might suggest competitive interactions with birds, but much more needs to be understood about pterosaur life histories. Additional fossils and molecular data are still required to help understand the role of biotic interactions in the evolution of Late Cretaceous birds and thus to test that the mechanisms of microevolution are sufficient to explain macroevolution.

Multilevel investigation of variation in HoNOS ratings by mental health professionals: a naturalistic study of consecutive referrals.

Episodes of mental healthcare in specialist psychiatric services often begin with the assessment of clinical and psychosocial needs of patients by healthcare professionals. Particularly for patients with complex needs or severe problems, ratings of clinical and social functioning at the start of each episode of care may serve as a baseline against which subsequent measures can be compared. Currently, little is known about service variations in such assessments on referrals from primary care. We set out to quantify variability in initial assessments performed by healthcare professionals in three CMHTs in Bristol (UK) using the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS). We tested the hypothesis that variations in HoNOS total and sub-scale scores are related to referral source (general practices), healthcare assessor (in CMHTs) and the assessor's professional group. Statistical analysis was performed using multilevel variance components models with cross-classified random effects. We found that variation due to assessor substantially exceeded that due to referral source (general practices). Furthermore, patient variance differed by assessor profession for the HoNOS--Impairment scores. Assessor variance differed by assessor profession for the HoNOS--Social scores. As HoNOS total and subscale scores show much larger variation by assessor than by referral source, investigations of HoNOS scores must take assessors into account. Services should implement and evaluate interdisciplinary training to improve consistency in use of rating thresholds; such initiatives could be evaluated using these extensions of multilevel models. Future research should aim to integrate routine diagnostic data with continuous outcomes to address selection effects (of patients to assessors) better.

Four new avian mitochondrial genomes help get to basic evolutionary questions in the late cretaceous.

Good phylogenetic trees are required to test hypotheses about evolutionary processes. We report four new avian mitochondrial genomes, which together with an improved method of phylogenetic analysis for vertebrate mt genomes give results for three questions in avian evolution. The new mt genomes are: magpie goose (Anseranas semipalmata), an owl (morepork, Ninox novaeseelandiae); a basal passerine (rifleman, or New Zealand wren, Acanthisitta chloris); and a parrot (kakapo or owl-parrot, Strigops habroptilus). The magpie goose provides an important new calibration point for avian evolution because the well-studied Presbyornis fossils are on the lineage to ducks and geese, after the separation of the magpie goose. We find, as with other animal mitochondrial genomes, that RY-coding is helpful in adjusting for biases between pyrimidines and between purines. When RY-coding is used at third positions of the codon, the root occurs between paleognath and neognath birds (as expected from morphological and nuclear data). In addition, passerines form a relatively old group in Neoaves, and many modern avian lineages diverged during the Cretaceous. Although many aspects of the avian tree are stable, additional taxon sampling is required.

Temperament in young adulthood and later mortality: prospective observational study.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between a clinician assessment of temperament in early adulthood and cause specific mortality. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. SETTING: Glasgow University. PARTICIPANTS: 9239 male former students aged 16-30 (mean 20.5) years who participated in an ongoing health survey from 1948-68. A physician recorded free text assessment of temperament, which seemed to capture aspects of personality (trait) and mental health (state), was coded into: stable, anxious, schizoid, hypomanic, odd, depressed, immature, hypochondriacal, unstable, and obsessive. Associations between temperament and mortality were investigated using Cox proportional hazards models. MAIN RESULTS: There were 878 deaths. Most students-8342 (90.3%)-were assessed as stable, the remaining 897 (9.7%) having at least one, and 103 (1.1%) having more than one, temperament type. The second most common temperament was anxiety, recorded in 520 (5.6%) students. In multivariable analyses, having at least one temperament type was associated with increased all cause and stroke mortality, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals): 1.23 (1.01 to 1.50) and 1.95 (1.06 to 3.59) respectively, compared with stable students. Students with more than one temperament type had higher risk of death from: all causes, 2.05 (1.36 to 3.09); stroke, 3.26 (1.01 to 10.56); and cancer, 2.90 (1.62 to 5.20). Anxiety was positively associated with all cause and cancer mortality, respective hazard ratios: 1.36 (1.07 to 1.72) and 1.51 (1.04 to 2.20). Men labelled hypomanic had increased cardiovascular mortality risk, 1.90 (1.05 to 3.44). CONCLUSIONS: Markers of early adult psychological distress are associated with increased mortality. Mechanisms underlying these associations require investigation.

Mitochondrial genomes of a bandicoot and a brushtail possum confirm the monophyly of australidelphian marsupials.

Recent molecular analyses suggest that the position of bandicoots is the major difficulty in determining the root of the tree of extant marsupials. To resolve this, we analyse mitochondrial genome sequences of a bandicoot (Isoodon macrourus) and a brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula) together with the previously available marsupial mitochondrial genomes, the Virginia opossum (Didelphis virginiana) and the wallaroo (Macropus robustus). Analyses of mitochondrial protein-coding and RNA genes strongly support the bandicoot as sister to the wallaroo and the brushtail possum. This result, combined with other recent molecular analyses, confirms the monophyly of Australidelphia (Australasian marsupials plus Dromiciops from South America). Further, RY coding was found to nullify AGCT coding nucleotide composition bias.

Hepatitis B virus genotypes: a South Pacific perspective.

87-91% but still, 0.6% of those that did respond to vaccination became infected. The infection rate of the vaccinated populations in the Pacific Islands ranged between 0.7 and 3.8%, which is comparable to Taiwan. A vigorous polyclonal response This communication discusses the current status of research in the hepatitis B virus in relation to the South Pacific. The hepatitis B virus (HBV) is a small DNA virus--3200 nucleotides. It has a circular genome and replicates through an RNA intermediate giving this DNA virus many characteristics similar to RNA viruses. Viral genomes can be single-stranded (+ or - sense) or double-stranded. If not vaccinated, infants born to HBeAg positive mothers (i.e. with high viral titer) have a 90% chance of being infected and becoming HBV carriers themselves. Mutants that affect the major antigenic determinant in HBV surface antigens are probably responsible for HBV infection despite immunization and mutants in the polymerase protein may render HBV resistant to therapy with nucleoside analogs. Within HBV seven genotypes A-G have been reported that is, HBV genotype A (HBVA), HBV genotype B (HBVB) etc. HBV is endemic worldwide with an estimated that 5% of the worlds population being carriers. Before the introduction of vaccination programs carrier rates varied between 5-30% in communities of these ethnic groups, and in some cases 80-90% of a community tested positive for HBV markers (i.e. were infected or had been infected). In Taiwan, of vaccinated babies born to HBV positive mothers, the proportion of those that responded to vaccination varied between will usually result in an acute infection and viral clearance. An associated problem with HBV, in the South Pacific, is the hepatitis delta virus (HDV). HDV is a satellite viroid-like RNA virus that requires HBV for replication. It can either co-infect with, or super-infect upon HBV infection resulting in acute infection and/or chronic infection respectively.

Non-linear relationship between an index of social deprivation, psychiatric admission prevalence and the incidence of psychosis.

BACKGROUND: Indicators of population socio-economic disadvantage expressed as weighted deprivation indices show strong relationships with mental health and underpin national funding of psychiatric services. A new index of social deprivation, the Mental Illness Needs Index, has been devised specifically to predict need for psychiatric services. Its validity has not been established outside the area in which it was developed. METHODS: We explored the relationship between the Mental Illness Needs Index and two alternative indicators of need for mental health services: the prevalence of psychiatric admission for electoral wards in Nottingham (calculated from Hospital Episode Statistics for the years 1992 and 1993) and ward-based incidence rates for psychosis (ICD-10 F1X-F33). Relationships were explored graphically using local regression models, and estimated using Generalized Linear and Additive Models, and Poisson regression. RESULTS: Social deprivation was strongly related to admission prevalence and psychosis incidence (Spearman's rho 0.63 and 0.44 respectively). Neither admission prevalence, nor the incidence of psychosis were linearly related to social deprivation. Areas with above average social deprivation had both more new cases of psychoses and a higher proportion of the population admitted than expected from a linear function. CONCLUSIONS: Application of a linear function to funding gradients may underfund high and low need areas and overfund median need areas. Improving the precision of estimates of the relationship between social deprivation and need for services is crucial to more equitable resource allocation.