Data driven approach to characterize rapid decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.

Autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is a genetic kidney disease with high phenotypic variability. Furthering insights into patients' ADPKD progression could lead to earlier detection, management, and alter the course to end stage kidney disease (ESKD). We sought to identify patients with rapid decline (RD) in kidney function and to determine clinical factors associated with RD using a data-driven approach. A retrospective cohort study was performed among patients with incident ADPKD (1/1/2002-12/31/2018). Latent class mixed models were used to identify RD patients using differences in eGFR trajectories over time. Predictors of RD were selected based on agreements among feature selection methods, including logistic, regularized, and random forest modeling. The final model was built on the selected predictors and clinically relevant covariates. Among 1,744 patients with incident ADPKD, 125 (7%) were identified as RD. Feature selection included 42 clinical measurements for adaptation with multiple imputations; mean (SD) eGFR was 85.2 (47.3) and 72.9 (34.4) in the RD and non-RD groups, respectively. Multiple imputed datasets identified variables as important features to distinguish RD and non-RD groups with the final prediction model determined as a balance between area under the curve (AUC) and clinical relevance which included 6 predictors: age, sex, hypertension, cerebrovascular disease, hemoglobin, and proteinuria. Results showed 72%-sensitivity, 70%-specificity, 70%-accuracy, and 0.77-AUC in identifying RD. 5-year ESKD rates were 38% and 7% among RD and non-RD groups, respectively. Using real-world routine clinical data among patients with incident ADPKD, we observed that six variables highly predicted RD in kidney function.

Identification of recurrent atrial fibrillation using natural language processing applied to electronic health records.

AIMS: This study aimed to develop and apply natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to identify recurrent atrial fibrillation (AF) episodes following rhythm control therapy initiation using electronic health records (EHRs). METHODS AND RESULTS: We included adults with new-onset AF who initiated rhythm control therapies (ablation, cardioversion, or antiarrhythmic medication) within two US integrated healthcare delivery systems. A code-based algorithm identified potential AF recurrence using diagnosis and procedure codes. An automated NLP algorithm was developed and validated to capture AF recurrence from electrocardiograms, cardiac monitor reports, and clinical notes. Compared with the reference standard cases confirmed by physicians' adjudication, the F-scores, sensitivity, and specificity were all above 0.90 for the NLP algorithms at both sites. We applied the NLP and code-based algorithms to patients with incident AF (n = 22 970) during the 12 months after initiating rhythm control therapy. Applying the NLP algorithms, the percentages of patients with AF recurrence for sites 1 and 2 were 60.7% and 69.9% (ablation), 64.5% and 73.7% (cardioversion), and 49.6% and 55.5% (antiarrhythmic medication), respectively. In comparison, the percentages of patients with code-identified AF recurrence for sites 1 and 2 were 20.2% and 23.7% for ablation, 25.6% and 28.4% for cardioversion, and 20.0% and 27.5% for antiarrhythmic medication, respectively. CONCLUSION: When compared with a code-based approach alone, this study's high-performing automated NLP method identified significantly more patients with recurrent AF. The NLP algorithms could enable efficient evaluation of treatment effectiveness of AF therapies in large populations and help develop tailored interventions.

Initial antiretroviral therapy regimen and risk of heart failure.

OBJECTIVES: Heart failure risk is elevated in people with HIV (PWH). We investigated whether initial antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens influenced heart failure risk. DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: PWH who initiated an ART regimen between 2000 and 2016 were identified from three integrated healthcare systems. We evaluated heart failure risk by protease inhibitor, nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI), and integrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)-based ART, and comparing two common nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors: tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (tenofovir) and abacavir. Follow-up for each pairwise comparison varied (i.e. 7 years for protease inhibitor vs. NNRTI; 5 years for tenofovir vs. abacavir; 2 years for INSTIs vs. PIs or NNRTIs). Hazard ratios were from working logistic marginal structural models, fitted with inverse probability weighting to adjust for demographics, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: Thirteen thousand six hundred and thirty-four PWH were included (88% men, median 40 years of age; 34% non-Hispanic white, 24% non-Hispanic black, and 24% Hispanic). The hazard ratio (95% CI) were: 2.5 (1.5-4.3) for protease inhibitor vs. NNRTI-based ART (reference); 0.5 (0.2-1.8) for protease inhibitor vs. INSTI-based ART (reference); 0.1 (0.1-0.8) for NNRTI vs. INSTI-based ART (reference); and 1.7 (0.5-5.7) for tenofovir vs. abacavir (reference). In more complex models of cumulative incidence that accounted for possible nonproportional hazards over time, the only remaining finding was evidence of a higher risk of heart failure for protease inhibitor compared with NNRTI-based regimens (1.8 vs. 0.8%; P  = 0.002). CONCLUSION: PWH initiating protease inhibitors may be at higher risk of heart failure compared with those initiating NNRTIs. Future studies with longer follow-up with INSTI-based and other specific ART are warranted.

Safety Net Program to Improve Statin Initiation Among Adults With High Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol.

INTRODUCTION: Despite their effectiveness in reducing low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and cardiovascular disease risk, high-intensity statins are underutilized among adults with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥190 mg/dL. This study determined whether a safety net program (SureNet) facilitating medication and laboratory test orders improved statin initiation and laboratory test completions after (SureNet period: April 2019-September 2021) and before implementation (pre-SureNet period: January 2016-September 2018). METHODS: Kaiser Permanente Southern California members aged 20-60 years with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥190 mg/dL and no statin use in previous 2-6 months were included in this retrospective cohort study. Statin orders within 14 days and statin fills, laboratory test completions, and improved low-density lipoprotein cholesterol within 180 days of the high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (pre-SureNet) or outreach (SureNet period) were compared. Analyses were conducted in 2022. RESULTS: Overall, 3,534 and 3,555 adults were eligible for statin initiation during the pre-SureNet and SureNet periods, respectively. Overall, 759 (21.5%) and 976 (27.5%) had a statin approved by their physician during pre-SureNet and SureNet periods, respectively (p<0.001). After multivariable adjustment for demographics and clinical characteristics, adults during the SureNet period had a higher likelihood of receiving a statin order (prevalence ratio=1.36, 95% CI=1.25, 1.48), filling their statin (prevalence ratio=1.32, 95% CI=1.26, 1.38), completing their laboratories (prevalence ratio=1.41, 95% CI=1.26, 1.58), and improving low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (prevalence ratio=1.21, 95% CI=1.07, 1.37) than in pre-Surenet period. CONCLUSIONS: The SureNet program was able to improve prescription orders, fills, laboratory test completions, and lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Optimizing both physician adherence to treatment guidelines; and patient adherence to the program may improve low-density lipoprotein cholesterol lowering.

Association of Kidney Function With Risk of Adverse Effects of Therapies for Atrial Fibrillation.

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is treated with rate control medications, antiarrhythmic medications, as well as anticoagulation and procedures, each of which have associated risks. We aimed to evaluate the association of CKD status with the risks of adverse effects after initiation of AF therapies. Methods: This was a cohort study of community-based adults who newly initiated rate control medications, antiarrhythmic medications, warfarin, direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) or received AF procedures in the 1 year after diagnosis of AF. Baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using outpatient serum creatinine measures. Adverse effects within 1 year related to each AF therapy or within 1 month of an AF procedure were ascertained from vital sign databases, electrocardiograms (ECGs), and administrative codes. Fine-Gray hazard models were used to study the association of eGFR categories with risk of adverse effects for each AF therapy. Results: Among 115,564 patients with incident AF, lower eGFR (vs. eGFR ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) was significantly associated with higher adjusted risk of adverse effects after initiation of rate control therapies (most commonly hypotension and bradycardia) as follows: eGFR 45-59 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.22), 30-44 (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25), and 15-29 (HR 1.29, 95% CI: 1.12-1.47) ml/min per 1.73 m2. Lower eGFR was associated with higher adjusted risk of adverse effects (most commonly prolonged QRS and QTc intervals) after initiation of an antiarrhythmic medication (vs. eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) as follows: eGFR 45-59 (HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.01-1.23) and eGFR<15 (HR 1.43, 95% CI 1.01-2.01) ml/min per 1.73 m2. Conclusion: There was a graded association between lower eGFR and risk of major bleeding with warfarin use, with the greatest risk among those with eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (HR of 2.93, 95% CI 1.99-4.30). There was no association of eGFR with major bleeding in patients receiving DOACs. Rates of adverse effects within 1 month of an AF procedure were low among patients with (n = 18) and without (n = 41) CKD and was underpowered for further analyses. In conclusion, lower eGFR was associated with significantly higher risks of adverse effects after initiation of commonly used therapies to treat AF. These data may help inform the complex therapeutic decisions in patients with CKD and AF.

Incident Atrial Fibrillation and Risk of Dementia in a Diverse, Community-Based Population.

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common, clinically relevant arrhythmia in adults and associated with ischemic stroke and premature death. However, data are conflicting on whether AF is independently associated with risk of dementia, particularly in diverse populations. Methods and Results We identified all adults from 2 large integrated health care delivery systems between 2010 and 2017 and performed a 1:1 match of incident AF: no AF by age at index date, sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate category, and study site. Subsequent dementia was identified through previously validated diagnosis codes. Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models were used to examine the association of incident AF (versus no AF) with risk of incident dementia, adjusting for sociodemographics and comorbidity and accounting for competing risk of death. Subgroup analyses by age, sex, race, ethnicity, and chronic kidney disease status were also performed. Among 196 968 matched adults, mean (SD) age was 73.6 (11.3) years, with 44.8% women, and 72.3% White. Incidence rates (per 100 person-years) for dementia over a median follow-up of 3.3 (interquartile range, 1.7-5.4) years were 2.79 (95% CI, 2.72-2.85) and 2.04 (95% CI, 1.99-2.08) per 100 person-years in persons with versus without incident AF, respectively. In adjusted models, incident AF was associated with a significantly greater risk of diagnosed dementia (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR], 1.13 [95% CI, 1.09-1.16]). With additional adjustment for interim stroke events, the association of incident AF with dementia remained statistically significant (sHR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.07-1.15]). Associations were stronger for age <65 (sHR, 1.65 [95% CI, 1.29-2.12]) versus ≥65 (sHR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.03-1.10]) years (interaction P<0.001); and those without (sHR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.14-1.26]) versus with chronic kidney disease (sHR, 1.06 [95% CI, 1.01-1.11]; interaction P<0.001). No meaningful differences were seen by sex, race, or ethnicity. Conclusions In a large, diverse community-based cohort, incident AF was associated with a modestly increased risk of dementia that was more prominent in younger patients and those without chronic kidney disease but did not substantially vary across sex, race, or ethnicity. Further studies should delineate mechanisms underpinning these findings, which may inform use of AF therapies.

Comparison of Blood Pressure Measurements from Clinical Practice and a Research Study At Kaiser Permanente Southern California.

BACKGROUND: Accurate blood pressure (BP) measurement is essential to identify and manage hypertension. Prior studies have reported a difference between BP measured in routine patient care and in research studies. We aimed to investigate the agreement between BP measured in routine care and research-grade BP in Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large, integrated healthcare system with initiatives to standardize BP measurements during routine patient care visits. METHODS: We included adults ≥65 years old with hypertension, taking antihypertensive medication, and participating in the Ambulatory Blood Pressure in Older Adults (AMBROSIA) study in 2019-2021. Clinic BP from routine care visits was extracted from the electronic health record. Research-grade BP was obtained by trained AMBROSIA study staff via an automatic oscillometric device. The mean difference between routine care and research-grade BP, limits of agreement, and correlation were assessed. RESULTS: We included 309 participants (mean age 75 years; 54% female; 49% non-Hispanic white). Compared with measurements from routine care, mean research-grade systolic BP (SBP) was 0.1 mm Hg higher (95% CI: -1.5 to 1.8) and diastolic BP (DBP) was 0.4 mm Hg lower (95% CI: -1.6 to 0.7). Limits of agreement were -29 to 30 mm Hg for SBP and -21 to 20 mm Hg for DBP. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.33 to 0.51) for SBP and 0.43 (95% CI: 0.34 to 0.52) for DBP. CONCLUSIONS: High within-person variation and moderate correlation were present between BP measured in routine care and following a research protocol suggesting the importance of standardized measurements.

Blood Pressure Control Among Black and White Adults Following a Quality Improvement Program in a Large Integrated Health System.

Importance: A higher percentage of non-Hispanic Black (hereinafter, Black) adults vs non-Hispanic White (hereinafter, White) adults with hypertension have uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) contributing to racial and ethnic disparities in cardiovascular disease. In 2010, Kaiser Permanente Southern California began implementing quality improvement (QI) strategies aimed at reducing this disparity. Objective: To examine the change in BP control between Black and White patients before and after the implementation of a QI program. Design, Setting, and Participants: A QI quasi-experimental, difference-in-difference analysis was conducted of Kaiser Permanente Southern California patients 18 years or older included in the population care management hypertension registry. The study was conducted from December 31, 2008, to December 31, 2019. Data analysis was performed from November 20, 2020, to November 7, 2022. Interventions: Quality improvement program implementation began in 2010. Main Outcomes and Measures: Blood pressure control (systolic BP <140 mm Hg and diastolic BP <90 mm Hg) was assessed using the last outpatient BP measurement in each calendar year. Changes in BP control between Black and White patients from before (2008-2009) to after (2016-2019) implementation of the QI program were examined using a difference-in-difference analysis. Blood pressure control disparities from 2008 through 2019 by age, sex, race and ethnicity, and factors associated with BP control were examined. Results: The number of patients with hypertension increased from 624 094 in 2008 (mean [SD] age, 61.8 [13.5] years; 330 551 [53.0%] female patients; 89 407 [14.3%] Black and 284 116 [45.5%] White patients) to 855 257 in 2019 (mean [SD] age, 64.5 [13.6] years; 444 422 [52.0%] female patients; 107 054 [12.5%] Black and 331 932 [38.8%] White patients). Blood pressure control increased an absolute 4.6% (95% CI, 4.3%-4.8%) among Black patients and 2.1% (95% CI, 2.0%-2.2%) among White patients from before to after the QI program implementation (difference-in-difference: 2.5%; 95% CI, 2.2%-2.8%). The largest reduction in BP control disparity between Black and White female patients was for those aged 50 to 64 years (difference-in-difference: 3.8%; 95% CI, 3.2%-4.4%) and for those aged 18 to 49 years between Black and White male patients (difference-in-difference: 4.2%; 95% CI, 3.0%-5.5%). The proportion of BP control among Black male patients aged 18 to 49 years was the lowest throughout 2008-2019 compared with male and female patients in other age and racial and ethnic groups. In 2019, uncontrolled BP was more common among Black vs White patients (prevalence ratio: 1.13; 95% CI, 1.12-1.14). Conclusions and Relevance: This QI program noted that disparities in BP control between Black and White patients were decreased but not eliminated following implementation of QI strategies aimed at reducing disparities in BP control. These findings suggest that more focused interventions may be needed to increase BP control among Black individuals.

Health Disparities in Kidney Failure Among Patients With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Rationale & Objective: Understanding potential differences in patterns of kidney failure among patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) may provide insights into improving disease management. We sought to characterize patients with ADPKD and kidney failure across different race/ethnicities. Study Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting & Participants: Kaiser Permanente Southern California members diagnosed with ADPKD between January1, 2002, and December 31, 2018. Exposure: ADPKD. Outcome: Kidney failure, dialysis, or receipt of kidney transplant. Analytical Approach: Differences in characteristics by race/ethnicity were assessed using analysis of variance F test and χ2 test. To compare the range and distribution of the average age at onset of kidney failure by race/ethnicity and sex, we used box plots and confidence intervals. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate OR for kidney transplant. Results: Among 3,677 ADPKD patients, 1,027 (27.3%) had kidney failure. The kidney failure cohort was comprised of Black (n=138; 30.7%), White (n=496; 30.6%), Hispanic (n=306; 24.7%), and Asian (n=87; 23.6%) patients. Hispanic patients had the youngest mean age of kidney failure onset (50 years) compared to Black (56 years) and White (57 years) patients. Black (44.2%; OR, 0.72) and Hispanic (49.7%; OR, 0.65) patients had lower rates of kidney transplantation compared to White (53.8%) patients. Preemptive kidney transplantations occurred in 15.0% of patients. Limitations: Retrospective study design and possible misclassification of ADPKD cases. Kidney function calculations were based on equations incorporating race, potentially overestimating kidney function in African Americans. The study was conducted within a single, integrated health care system in 1 geographic region and may not be generalizable to all ADPKD patients. Conclusions: Among a large diverse ADPKD population, we observed racial/ethnic differences in rates of kidney failure, age of kidney failure onset, and rates of kidney transplantation. Our real-world ADPKD cohort provides insight into racial/ethnic variation in clinical features of disease and potential disparities in care, which may affect ADPKD outcomes.

Changes in Fall Rates From Before to During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Findings From the Prospective AMBROSIA Study.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) social distancing policies resulted in reductions in community movement, however, fall rates during this time have not been described. METHODS: This prospective study included adults ≥65 years old participating in the Ambulatory Blood Pressure in Older Adults (AMBROSIA) cohort and who completed ≥1 monthly falls calendar (August 2019-March 2021; n = 250). Months were grouped to correspond to the fall 2020 phased reopening (August-October) and the shelter-in-place policy during the winter 2020 surge (November-January) in Los Angeles, California and compared to the same months, 1 year earlier (ie, before the pandemic). RESULTS: Participants had a mean (standard deviation [SD]) age of 75.2 (6.1) years, 49.6% were White, and 53.2% were women. We obtained 2 795 falls calendars during follow-up. Overall, 110 (44.0%) participants reported a total of 421 falls (rate 15.1 per 100 calendar months). The highest monthly fall rate during the pandemic was 22.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 16.4-31.1) per 100 calendar-months in August 2020. The lowest fall rate during the pandemic was 8.6 (95% CI 3.5-17.8) per 100 calendar-months in February 2021. During the pandemic, fall rates in August, September, and October 2020 were higher than the previous year (rate ratio 1.8 [95% CI 1.1-2.9]), and fall rates in November and December 2020 and January 2021 were lower than the previous year (rate ratio 0.5 [95% CI 0.4-0.8]). CONCLUSION: As the pandemic continues and older adults resume community mobility after a shelter-in-place period, providers should pay attention to the risk of falls.

Thromboembolism after treatment with 4-factor prothrombin complex concentrate or plasma for warfarin-related bleeding.

Limited data exist in large, representative populations about whether the risk of thromboembolic events varies after receiving four-factor human prothrombin complex concentrate (4F-PCC) versus treatment with human plasma for urgent reversal of oral vitamin K antagonist therapy. We conducted a multicenter observational study to compare the 45-day risk of thromboembolic events in adults with warfarin-associated major bleeding after treatment with 4F-PCC (Kcentra®) or plasma. Hospitalized patients in two large integrated healthcare delivery systems who received 4F-PCC or plasma for reversal of warfarin due to major bleeding from January 1, 2008 to March 31, 2020 were identified and were matched 1:1 on potential confounders and a high-dimensional propensity score. Arterial and venous thromboembolic events were identified up to 45 days after receiving 4F-PCC or plasma from electronic health records and adjudicated by physician review. Among 1119 patients receiving 4F-PCC and a matched historical cohort of 1119 patients receiving plasma without a recent history of thromboembolism, mean (SD) age was 76.7 (10.5) years, 45.6% were women, and 9.4% Black, 14.6% Asian/Pacific Islander, and 15.7% Hispanic. The 45-day risk of thromboembolic events was 3.4% in those receiving 4F-PCC and 4.1% in those receiving plasma (P = 0.26; adjusted hazard ratio 0.76; 95% confidence interval 0.49-1.16). The adjusted risk of all-cause death at 45 days post-treatment was lower in those receiving 4F-PCC compared with plasma. Among a large, ethnically diverse cohort of adults treated for reversal of warfarin-associated bleeding, receipt of 4F-PCC was not associated with an excess risk of thromboembolic events at 45 days compared with plasma therapy.

Multimorbidity Burden and Incident Heart Failure Among People With and Without HIV: The HIV-HEART Study.

Objective: To examine the association between multimorbidity burden and incident heart failure (HF) among people with HIV (PWH) and people without HIV (PWoH). Patients and Methods: The HIV-HEART study is a retrospective cohort study that included adult PWH and PWoH aged 21 years or older at Kaiser Permanente between 2000 and 2016. Multimorbidity burden was defined by the baseline prevalence of 22 chronic conditions and was categorized as 0-1, 2-3, and 4 or more comorbidities on the basis of distribution of the overall population. People with HIV and PWoH were followed for a first HF event, all-cause death, or up to the end of follow-up on December 31, 2016. Using Cox proportional hazard regression, hazard ratios and 95% CIs were calculated to examine the association between multimorbidity burden and incident HF among PWH and PWoH, separately. Results: The prevalences of 0-1, 2-3, and 4 or more comorbidities were 83.3%, 13.0%, and 3.7% in PWH (n=38,868), and 82.2%, 14.3%, and 3.5% in PWoH (n=386,586), respectively. After multivariable adjustment, compared with people with 0-1 comorbidities, the hazard ratios of incident HF associated with 2-3 and 4 or more comorbidities were 1.33 (95% CI, 1.04-1.71) and 2.41 (95% CI, 1.78-3.25) in PWH and 2.10 (95% CI, 1.92-2.29) and 4.09 (95% CI, 3.64-4.61) in PWoH, respectively. Conclusion: Multimorbidity was associated with a higher risk of incident HF among PWH and PWoH, with more prominent associations in PWoH and certain patient subgroups. The identification of specific multimorbidity patterns that contribute to higher HF risk in PWH may lead to future preventative strategies.

Association of the 2020 US Presidential Election With Hospitalizations for Acute Cardiovascular Conditions.

Importance: Prior studies found a higher risk of acute cardiovascular disease (CVD) around population-wide psychosocial or environmental stressors. Less is known about acute CVD risk in relation to political events. Objective: To examine acute CVD hospitalizations following the 2020 presidential election. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study examined acute CVD hospitalizations following the 2020 presidential election. Participants were adult members aged 18 years or older at Kaiser Permanente Southern California and Kaiser Permanente Northern California, 2 large, integrated health care delivery systems. Statistical analysis was performed from March to July 2021. Exposure: 2020 US presidential election. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalizations for acute CVD around the 2020 presidential election were examined. CVD was defined as hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure (HF), or stroke. Rate ratios (RR) and 95% CIs were calculated comparing rates of CVD hospitalization in the 5 days following the 2020 election with the same 5-day period 2 weeks prior. Results: Among 6 396 830 adults (3 970 077 [62.1%] aged 18 to 54 years; 3 422 479 [53.5%] female; 1 083 128 [16.9%] Asian/Pacific Islander, 2 101 367 [32.9%] Hispanic, and 2 641 897 [41.3%] White), rates of hospitalization for CVD following the election (666 hospitalizations; rate = 760.5 per 100 000 person-years [PY]) were 1.17 times higher (95% CI, 1.05-1.31) compared with the same 5-day period 2 weeks prior (569 hospitalizations; rate = 648.0 per 100 000 PY). Rates of AMI were significantly higher following the election (RR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.13-1.79). No significant difference was found for stroke (RR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.86-1.21) or HF (RR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.98-1.42). Conclusions and Relevance: Higher rates of acute CVD hospitalization were observed following the 2020 presidential election. Awareness of the heightened risk of CVD and strategies to mitigate risk during notable political events are needed.

Representativeness of the GALACTIC-HF Clinical Trial in Patients Having Heart Failure With Reduced Ejection Fraction.

Background Randomized clinical trials in populations with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction may not be reflective of the general population with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. Our study assessed the representativeness of the GALACTIC-HF (Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac Outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure) patient population in Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Methods and Results We identified 9770 patients with a diagnosis of heart failure with reduced ejection fraction from 2014 to 2018 using electronic health records. Four mutually exclusive cohorts were created, including GALACTIC-HF-ineligible cohorts: (1) not taking guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) and (2) taking GDMT; and GALACTIC-HF-eligible cohorts with: (3) ejection fraction (EF) ≤28% and (4) EF 29% to 35%. Patients were followed for 30-day and 1-year mortality and 30-day, 180-day, and 1-year hospitalization. Overall, 3626 (37.1%) met GALACTIC-HF inclusion criteria with EF ≤35%, and 2367 (65.3%) of those individuals had EF ≤28%. The risk of 1-year mortality was lower among all cohorts versus the GALACTIC-HF-ineligible cohort not taking GDMT (hazard ratio, 0.80 [95% CI, 0.70-0.91], 0.84 [95% CI, 0.72-0.98], and 0.62 [95% CI, 0.51-0.75] for the GALACTIC-HF-ineligible cohort taking GDMT and GALACTIC-HF-eligible cohorts with EF ≤28% and 29%-35%, respectively). Compared with the GALACTIC-HF-ineligible cohort not taking GDMT, the short-term hospitalization risk at 30 and 180 days were similar for both GALACTIC-HF-eligible cohorts and the hospitalization risk at 1 year was similar for the GALACTIC-HF-eligible cohort with EF ≤28%. Conclusions A large portion of patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction with low EF met inclusion criteria for the GALACTIC-HF trial and, despite being on GDMT, had hospitalization rates similar to those not taking GDMT, suggesting potential benefits from other innovative treatments.

Potentially Harmful Medication Dispenses After a Fall or Hip Fracture: A Mixed Methods Study of a Commonly Used Quality Measure.

BACKGROUND: High-risk medication dispenses to patients with a prior fall or hip fracture represent a potentially dangerous disease-drug interaction among older adults. The research team quantified the prevalence, identified risk factors, and generated patient and provider insights into high-risk medication dispenses in a large, community-based integrated health system using a commonly used quality measure. METHODS: This was a mixed methods study with a convergent design combining a retrospective cohort study using electronic health record (EHR) data, individual interviews of primary care physicians, and a focus group of patient advisors. RESULTS: Of 113,809 patients ≥ 65 years with a fall/fracture in 2009-2015, 35.4% had a potentially harmful medication dispensed after their fall/fracture. Most medications were prescribed by primary care providers. Older age, male gender, and race/ethnicity other than non-Hispanic White were associated with a reduced risk of high-risk medication dispenses. Patients with a pre-fall/fracture medication dispense were substantially more likely to have a post-fall/fracture medication dispense (hazard ratio [HR] = 13.26, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 12.91-13.61). Both patients and providers noted that providers may be unaware of patient falls due to inconsistent assessments and patient reluctance to disclose falls. Providers also noted the lack of a standard location to document falls and limited decision support alerts within the EHR. CONCLUSION: High-risk medication dispenses are common among older patients with a history of falls/fractures. Future interventions should explore improved assessment and documentation of falls, decision support, clinician training strategies, patient educational resources, building trusting patient-clinician relationships to facilitate long-term medication discontinuation among persistent medication users, and a focus on fall prevention.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection and Variation in Heart Failure Risk by Age, Sex, and Ethnicity: The HIV HEART Study.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the risk of heart failure (HF) linked to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, how risk varies by demographic characteristics, and whether it is explained by atherosclerotic disease or risk factor treatment. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of persons with HIV (PWHs) from January 1, 2000, through December 31, 2016, frequency-matched 1:10 to persons without HIV on year of entry, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and treating facility. We evaluated the risk of incident HF associated with HIV infection, overall and by left ventricular systolic function, and whether HF risk varied by demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Among 38,868 PWHs and 386,586 matched persons without HIV, mean ± SD age was 41.4±10.8 years, with 12.3% female, 21.1% Black, 20.5% Hispanic, and 3.9% Asian/Pacific Islander. During median follow-up of 3.8 years (interquartile range, 1.4-9.0 years), the rate (per 100 person-years) of incident HF was 0.23 in PWHs vs 0.15 in those without HIV (P<.001). The PWHs had a higher adjusted HF rate (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.57 to 1.91), which was only modestly attenuated after accounting for interim acute coronary syndrome events. Results were similar by systolic function category. The adjusted risk of HF in PWHs was more prominent for those 40 years and younger (aHR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.92 to 3.03), women (aHR, 2.48; 95% CI, 1.90 to 3.26), and Asian/Pacific Islanders (aHR, 2.46; 95% CI, 1.27 to 4.74). CONCLUSION: HIV infection increases the risk of HF, which varied by demographic characteristics and was not primarily mediated through atherosclerotic disease pathways or differential use of cardiopreventive medications.

Laboratory monitoring to reduce adverse drug-related events: a mixed methods study.

BACKGROUND: Therapy with angiotensinconverting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) requires laboratory monitoring to avoid hyperkalemia and acute kidney failure. OBJECTIVE: To assess the frequency of recommended annual serum potassium and creatinine monitoring and determine potential factors associated with care gaps among adults dispensed an ACEI or ARB. METHODS: This mixed-methods study integrated findings from a retrospective cohort study and individual patient interviews. Adults aged 21 years and over within Kaiser Permanente Southern California with at least 180 treatment days of an ACEI and/or ARB in 2015 were included. Patients invited for qualitative interviews included those who did and did not complete the recommended laboratory tests. We assessed the proportion of patients completing both recommended laboratory tests, factors associated with not receiving laboratory monitoring, and patients' insights into barriers and facilitators of recommended monitoring. RESULTS: Of 437,544 patients who received an ACEI or ARB, 9.0% did not receive both a serum potassium and creatinine laboratory test during treatment (defined as a care gap). Lower risk of a care gap was observed for patients with increasing age (rate ratio [RR] per 10-year increase = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.77-0.79); diabetes mellitus (RR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.60-0.64); hypertension (RR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.71-0.74); Charlson Comorbidity Index score of at least 2 (RR = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.60-0.64); those who changed medication classes (RR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.51-0.56); and patients with a cardiologist (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.73-0.90) or nephrologist (RR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.52-0.69) as their prescribing provider. Twenty-five patients completed the qualitative interviews. Patients often lacked knowledge about the need for laboratory monitoring, cited logistical barriers to accessing the laboratory, and deemed the reminders they received through an outpatient safety program as a facilitator to completing tests. CONCLUSIONS: Given the large patient population on ACEI and ARB medications, monitoring and support strategies such as electronic clinical surveillance could be important in addressing care gaps and potentially reducing adverse drug effects. DISCLOSURES: This project was supported by grant number R01HS024437 from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality. The funder had no role in the design of the study; collection, analyses, or interpretation of the data, or decision to submit this manuscript for publication. Harrison, Reynolds, Hahn, Munoz-Plaza, Yi, Fischer, Luong, Sim, Brettler, Handler, and Mittman are employees of the Southern California Permanente Medical Group. Danworth was employed by the Southern California Permanente Medical Group at the time of this study. Singh was partially supported by the Houston VA HSR&D Center for Innovations in Quality, Effectiveness and Safety (CIN13-413). Reynolds reports grants from Novartis, Amgen Inc., and Vital Strategies, Resolve to Save Lives, unrelated to this work. Yi reports grants from Novartis unrelated to this work. Kanter has nothing to disclose.

Management of Adults with Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation with and without CKD.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is highly prevalent in CKD and is associated with worse cardiovascular and kidney outcomes. Limited data exist on use of AF pharmacotherapies and AF-related procedures by CKD status. We examined a large "real-world" contemporary population with incident AF to study the association of CKD with management of AF. METHODS: We identified patients with newly diagnosed AF between 2010 and 2017 from two large, integrated health care delivery systems. eGFR (≥60, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2) was calculated from a minimum of two ambulatory serum creatinine measures separated by ≥90 days. AF medications and procedures were identified from electronic health records. We performed multivariable Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards regression to test the association of CKD severity with receipt of targeted AF therapies. RESULTS: Among 115,564 patients with incident AF, 34% had baseline CKD. In multivariable models, compared with those with eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m2, patients with eGFR 30-44 (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.91; 95% CI, 0.99 to 0.93), 15-29 (aHR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.82), and <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (aHR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.58-0.70) had lower use of any AF therapy. Patients with eGFR 15-29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 had lower adjusted use of rate control agents (aHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.56 to 0.67), warfarin (aHR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.84 to 0.94), and DOACs (aHR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.27) compared with patients with eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. These associations were even stronger for eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2. There was also a graded association between CKD severity and receipt of AF-related procedures (vs eGFR >60 ml/min per 1.73 m2): eGFR 30-44 ml/min per 1.73 (aHR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.87), eGFR 15-29 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (aHR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.61 to 0.88), and eGFR <15 ml/min per 1.73 m2 (aHR, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: In adults with newly diagnosed AF, CKD severity was associated with lower receipt of rate control agents, anticoagulation, and AF procedures. Additional data on efficacy and safety of AF therapies in CKD populations are needed to inform management strategies.

Diagnostic Yield, Outcomes, and Resource Utilization With Different Ambulatory Electrocardiographic Monitoring Strategies.

Accurate diagnosis of arrhythmias is improved with longer monitoring duration but can risk delayed diagnosis. We compared diagnostic yield, outcomes, and resource utilization by arrhythmia monitoring strategy in 330 matched adults (mean age 64 years, 40% women, and 30% non-White) without previously documented atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (AF/AFL) who received ambulatory electrocardiographic monitoring by 14-day Zio XT (patch-based continuous monitor), 24-hour Holter, or 30-day event monitor (external loop recorder) between October 2011 and May 2014. Patients were matched by age, gender, site, likelihood of receiving Zio XT patch, and indication for monitoring, and subsequently followed for monitoring results, management changes, clinical outcomes, and resource utilization. AF/AFL ≥30 seconds was noted in 6% receiving Zio XT versus 0% by Holter (p = 0.04) and 3% by event monitor (p = 0.07). Nonsustained ventricular tachycardia was noted in 24% for Zio XT patch versus 8% (p <0.001) for Holter and 4% (p <0.001) for event monitor. No significant differences between monitoring strategies in outcomes or resource utilization were observed. Prolonged monitoring with 14-day Zio XT patch or 30-day event monitor was superior to 24-hour Holter in detecting new AF/AFL but not different from each other. Documented nonsustained ventricular tachycardia was more frequent with Zio XT than 24-hour Holter and 30-day event monitor without apparent increased risk of adverse outcomes or excess utilization. In conclusion, additional efforts are needed to further personalize electrocardiographic monitoring strategies that optimize clinical management and outcomes.

Risk of hospitalization and mortality associated with uncontrolled blood pressure in patients with hypertension and COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The role of uncontrolled blood pressure (BP) in COVID-19 severity among patients with hypertension is unclear. We evaluated the association between uncontrolled BP and the risk of hospitalization and/or mortality in patients with hypertension from a large US integrated healthcare system. METHODS: We identified patients with hypertension and a positive RT-PCR test result or a diagnosis of COVID-19 between March 1 - September 1, 2020 from Kaiser Permanente Southern California. BP categories was defined using the most recent outpatient BP measurement during 12 months prior to COVID-19 infection. The primary outcome of interest was all-cause hospitalization or mortality within 30 days from COVID-19 infection. RESULTS: Among 12,548 patients with hypertension and COVID-19 (mean age = 60 years, 47% male), 63% had uncontrolled BP (≥130/80 mm Hg) prior to COVID-19. Twenty-one percent were hospitalized or died within 30 days of COVID-19 infection. Uncontrolled BP was not associated with higher hospitalization or mortality (adjusted rate ratios for BP ≥ 160/100 mm Hg vs < 130/80 mm Hg = 1.00 [95% CI: 0.87, 1.14]; BP 140-159/90-99 mm Hg vs < 130/80 mm Hg = 1.02 [95% CI: 0.93, 1.11]). These findings were consistent across different age groups, treatment for antihypertensive medications, as well as atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. CONCLUSION: Among patients with hypertension, uncontrolled BP prior to COVID-19 infection did not appear to be an important risk factor for 30-day mortality or hospitalization.