Explaining Residential Clustering of Large Families.

Numerous studies have shown that fertility behavior is spatially clustered. In addition to pure contextual effects, two causal mechanisms could drive this pattern. First, neighbors may influence each other's fertility and second, family size may influence decisions about where to live. In this study we examine these two potential causal mechanisms empirically, using the sex composition of the two eldest children and twin births as instrumental variables (IVs) for having a third child. We estimate how having a third child affects three separate outcomes: the fertility of neighbors; the propensity to move houses; and the likelihood of living in a family-friendly neighborhood with many children. We draw residential and childbearing histories (2000-2018) from Norwegian administrative registers (N ~ 167,000 women). Individuals' neighborhoods are defined using time-varying geocoordinates for place of residence. We identify selective moves as one plausible causal driver of residential clustering of large families. This study contributes to the understanding of fertility and relocation, and to the literature on the social interaction effects of fertility, by testing the relevance of yet another network: that of neighbors.

Adolescents' primary care consultations before and after parental suicide: evidence from population-wide data.

Parental bereavement is associated with distress and poorer long-term outcomes among adolescents. Adolescents who lose a parent to suicide fare worse than their peers even before bereavement. Based on the current literature, we cannot distinguish such initial differences from the medium and long-term effect of parental suicide. We study the impact of parental suicide on adolescents' General Practitioner visits for mental health or psychosocial reasons. Within-individual models account for time-invariant differences between the bereaved and non-bereaved. We investigate if effects differ from the impact of parental death from other causes, and vary with sex and socioeconomic background. Full population data on Norwegian residents aged 10-19 in the period 2006-2015 are drawn from registers (N = 1 405 suicide bereaved, 12 982 bereaved by other causes, and 1 182 819 non-bereaved controls). Records include data on use of health services, parental mortality, and sociodemographic characteristics of parent and child. Mental health consultations increase gradually in the quarters leading up to the parental suicide, significantly more for girls than for boys. Two years prior to bereavement, 2.4% of the subsequently suicide bereaved have a mental health consultation in any given quarter. In the year of bereavement, this increases with 6% points. Health care workers should be aware that boys are less likely to turn to their GP for support before parental bereavement from suicide.

The effects of an abrupt increase in taxes on candy and soda in Norway: an observational study of retail sales.

BACKGROUND: Fiscal policies are used to promote a healthier diet; however, there is still a call for real-world evaluations of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages. We aimed to evaluate the effect of an abrupt increase, of respectively 80 and 40%, in the excising Norwegian taxes on candy and beverages on volume sales of candy and soda. We expected sales to fall. METHODS: We analyzed electronic point of sale data covering approximately 98% of volume sales of grocery stores in Norway. In two pre-registered models with weekly (log-)sales of taxed candy and soda from 3884 individual stores, we modeled the difference between the jump (discontinuity) in the trend around the time of the increase in taxes and the corresponding jump in the trend in a control season from the previous years (Model 1). In addition, we modeled the difference between the intervention and the control season in their changes in average sales (Model 2). RESULTS: Model 1 showed a 6.1% (one-sided 95% CI: not applicable (NA), 23.4, p-value = 0.26) increase and a - 3.9% (95% CI: NA, 4.9, p-value = 0.23) reduction in the differences in the jump in the trends, for candy and soda, respectively. The second model showed a relative decrease of - 4.9% (95% CI: NA, 1.0, p-value = 0.08) in the average sales of candy and an increase of 1.5% (95% CI: NA, 5.0, p-value = 0.24) in sales of soda. Supplementary analyses suggested that the results were sensitive to clustering on the time dimension. CONCLUSIONS: When using two different quasi-experimental designs to model changes in volume sales of taxed candy and soda, we were not able to detect reductions in sales that coincided with an increase in the taxes. Variation across time makes it difficult to detect potentially small changes in sales even when using an entire country's worth of sales data on the level of individual stores. We speculate that the tax increases were too modest to affect the prices to alter sales sufficiently.