Preliminary results from a meta-analysis of drinking behavior in multiple longitudinal studies.

This paper introduces the scope and rationale of The Collaborative Alcohol-Related Longitudinal Project and describes the individual longitudinal studies which contribute to this large collaborative project, representing studies from 15 countries. It also serves as an introduction to four reports of the preliminary findings from the project. The project is distinguished by (1) its interdisciplinary research approach which has assembled a multidisciplinary group of scholars to direct and interpret analyses, (2) its use of primary data from multiple longitudinal studies, (3) the parallel analyses of primary data from multiple studies, using comparable measures across studies recorded to a standard format and common analytic model, and (4) its use of meta-analysis to combine results across studies. Its research objectives include determining the cross-study consistency of findings of (1) the incidence and chronicity of drinking patterns and problems, (2) exogeneous factors which initiate and alter drinking careers, (3) socio-behavioral factors measured in childhood and adolescence which predict adult drinking problems, (4) inter-generational biological and social factors which predict adult drinking problems, and (5) aggregate-level factors which account for study differences. The method of sampling of studies from the world's alcohol-related general population longitudinal research is described.

A meta-analysis of life course variation in drinking.

Meta-analysis combines results from multiple longitudinal studies to describe life course variation by age and sex for quantity of drinking per typical occasion (20 studies) and frequency of drinking during one month (27 studies). There is cross-study heterogeneity for the Time 1 means of the drinking variables blocking for age and sex. Age distributions for the Time 1 means are similar by gender within nations; in the aggregate, males exceed females in the magnitude of drinking. Dramatic shifts in the standardized mean difference (M2-M1) occur among the young; greater homogeneity and moderate change (declines) occur later in life. Implicated in improving cross-study homogeneity for M2-M1 among the young are interval between measurements, nation, Time 1 per capita consumption (PCC), difference in PCC and the Time 1 mean. Lower unstandardized regression coefficients are found for quantity among youth, but are not consistently homogeneous within nations; the association for frequency becomes increasingly stable with increasing age. Nation and interval are implicated in improving homogeneity. Decline in quantity occurs among the old. M2-M1 produces homogeneously higher regressions for groups of the young who increase quantity v. those who do not. Linkage of the group-level and individual-level findings is discussed.

A meta-analysis of change in marital and employment status as predictors of alcohol consumption on a typical occasion.

Meta-analysis is used to combine results of primary data from 12 longitudinal studies to examine the consistency of results with respect to the role of changes on the individual level in marital status and employment status on changes in consumption of alcohol per typical occasion. The analyses control for the effects of Time 1 consumption per occasion and education. Not getting married and becoming unmarried are associated with increased consumption at follow-up and both variables are positively related to increased consumption among older men, but only becoming unmarried was related to increased consumption among older women. Becoming married is homogeneously and negatively associated with consumption at follow-up for younger and older persons of both sexes. Chronic unemployment is negatively related to consumption at follow-up among older males and younger females. Becoming unemployed between measurements is homogeneously and negatively related to consumption among older males and females, but positively related among younger males. Becoming employed is homogeneously and positively related to later consumption among all groups except young females.

A meta-analysis of depressive symptomatology and alcohol consumption over time.

Meta-analysis (eight general population longitudinal studies) describes the relationships (regressions) between quantity per occasion and depressive symptomatology over time. Quantity and depression are the strongest and most consistent predictors of final levels of themselves in all data sets. Age significantly and consistently predicts quantity for both sexes combined (the general pattern is replicated among males only). Depression significantly predicts quantity and quantity significantly predicts depression for females. Controlling for interval between measurements produces stronger prediction (more consistent over shorter intervals) for males. Depression only predicts quantity over longer intervals and quantity only predicts depression over shorter intervals for females. Explicit control for age found stronger relationships between initial and final measurement quantity, and depression for males. Quantity and depression significantly predict quantity and depression among young females. The relationship between quantity and depression among females illustrates the importance of controlling for age and sex. Methodological considerations are discussed.

An integrated approach to meta-analysis in alcohol studies.

The research design and methods utilized by the Collaborative Alcohol-Related Longitudinal Project are described. The project design addresses the critical need to develop procedures to assess the replicability of research results in alcohol studies. Key features of the research plan include: re-analysis of original data from multiple longitudinal studies of drinking behavior in the general population; centralization of all data analyses, developed and implemented by an interdisciplinary core staff; development of the research plan and interpretation of results in co-operation with original investigators of studies included in the project; and use of modeling procedures from meta-analysis to quantify the relative contribution of factors influencing the distribution of effect estimates across studies, including both methodological differences and aggregate level variables. The final section describes statistical methods for meta-analysis used by the project, including procedures for the calculation and combination of estimates of effect magnitude, categorical and continuous modeling procedures for use with effect sizes, and random effects models.

Cross-cultural and cross-temporal explanations of drinking behavior: contributions from epidemiology, life-span developmental psychology and the sociology of aging.

A review is presented of the contributions to understanding historical and cultural variation in drinking practices from three disciplines--epidemiology, life-span developmental psychology and the sociology of aging. It is concluded that while these disciplines have made major methodological contributions to understanding these variations, theory is lacking. Reasons for the paucity of theory and the lack of hypotheses are advanced, as are frameworks in which to test competitive hypotheses across temporal and cultural boundaries.

As time goes by: change and stability in personality over fifty years.

Dimensions of personality, based on Q-sorted descriptions at seven points in time over a 50-year period and derived from a three-way component analysis, are described for a core sample of 118 subjects and two additional childhood samples of 99 and 108 subjects that partially overlap with the core sample. Stability and change in personality are described between adjacent periods and across a substantial segment of the life span from early childhood to late adulthood. These descriptions do not seem consistent with various explanations that personality develops either by stages or by steady gradual accumulation, or that it results from early effects. Instead, some aspects of personality shifted in level and correlational stability at particular intervals in time and according to sex of participants; other aspects were comparatively stable, irrespective of time interval and sex of participants. We suggest that the development of personality and achievement-based variables is not alike. Instead, personality development appears to be considerably more innovative and responsive-that is, more adaptive.