Cooling and Contraction of the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere From 2002 to 2021.

We examine the thermal structure of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) using observations from 2002 through 2021 from the SABER instrument on the NASA TIMED satellite. These observations show that the MLT has significantly cooled and contracted between the years 2002 and 2019 (the year of the most recent solar minimum) due to a combination of a decline in the intensity of the 11-year solar cycle and increasing carbon dioxide (CO2.) During this time the thickness of atmosphere between the 1  and 10-4 hPa pressure surfaces (approximately 48 and 105 km) has contracted by 1,333 m, of which 342 m is attributed to increasing CO2. All other pressure surfaces in the MLT have similarly contracted. We further postulate that the MLT in the two most recent solar minima (2008-2009 and 2019-2020) was very likely the coldest and thinnest since the beginning of the Industrial Age. The sensitivity of the MLT to a doubling of CO2 is shown to be -7.5 K based on observed trends in temperature and growth rates of CO2. Colder temperatures observed at 10-4 hPa in 2019 than in the prior solar minimum in 2009 may be due to a decrease of 5% in solar irradiance in the Schumann-Runge band spectral region (175-200 nm).

Evaluation of Polar Winter Mesopause Wind in WACCMX+DART.

This work evaluates zonal winds in both hemispheres near the polar winter mesopause in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension combined with data assimilation using the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) (WACCMX+DART). We compare 14 years (2006-2019) of WACCMX+DART zonal mean zonal winds near 90 km to zonal mean zonal winds derived from Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) geopotential height measurements during Arctic mid-winter. 10 years (2008-2017) of WACCMX+DART zonal mean zonal winds are compared to SABER in the Antarctic mid-winter. It is well known that WACCM, and WACCM-X, zonal winds at the polar winter mesopause exhibit a strong easterly (westward) bias. One explanation for this is that the models omit higher order gravity waves (GWs), and thus the eastward drag caused by these GWs. We show for the first time that the model winds near the polar winter mesopause are in closer agreement with SABER observations when the winds near the stratopause are weak or reversed. The model and observed mesosphere and lower thermosphere winds agree most during dynamically disturbed times often associated with minor or major sudden stratospheric warming events. Results show that the deceleration of the stratospheric and mesospheric polar night jet allows enough eastward GWs to propagate into the mesosphere, driving eastward zonal winds that are in agreement with the observations. Thus, in both hemispheres, the winter polar night jet speed and direction near the stratopause may be a useful proxy for model fidelity in the polar winter upper mesosphere.

Transport of Nitric Oxide Via Lagrangian Coherent Structures Into the Top of the Polar Vortex.

The energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect (IE) refers to the downward transport of reactive odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2) produced by EPP (EPP-NOx) from the polar winter mesosphere and lower thermosphere to the stratosphere where it can destroy ozone. Previous studies of the EPP IE examined NOx descent averaged over the polar region, but the work presented here considers longitudinal variations. We report that the January 2009 split Arctic vortex in the stratosphere left an imprint on the distribution of NO near the mesopause, and that the magnitude of EPP-NOx descent in the upper mesosphere depends strongly on the planetary wave (PW) phase. We focus on an 11-day case study in late January immediately following the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming during which regional-scale Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) formed atop the strengthening mesospheric vortex. The LCSs emerged over the north Atlantic in the vicinity of the trough of a 10-day westward traveling planetary wave. Over the next week, the LCSs acted to confine NO-rich air to polar latitudes, effectively prolonging its lifetime as it descended into the top of the polar vortex. Both a whole atmosphere data assimilation model and satellite observations show that the PW trough remained coincident in space and time with the NO-rich air as both migrated westward over the Canadian Arctic. Estimates of descent rates indicate five times stronger descent inside the PW trough compared to other longitudes. This case serves to set the stage for future climatological analysis of NO transport via LCSs.

Impact of September 2019 Antarctic Sudden Stratospheric Warming on Mid-Latitude Ionosphere and Thermosphere Over North America and Europe.

Limited observational evidence indicates that ionospheric changes caused by Arctic sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) occur at middle latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere. However, it is not known if a similar interhemispheric linkage is produced by Antarctic SSWs. Here we examine thermospheric and ionospheric anomalies observed in September 2019 at middle latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. We report persistent (at least 30 days) and strong (up to 80%-100%) positive anomalies in the daytime total electron content (TEC) and increases in the thermospheric O/N2 ratio in the western region of North America. However, central and eastern regions of North America experience moderate suppression of TEC reaching 20%-40% of the baseline. Different positive and negative anomalies are observed over the European sector. We hypothesize that regional differences in the TEC response could be related to modulation of thermospheric winds during SSWs, changes in thermospheric composition, and differences in declination angle.

A New MEPED-Based Precipitating Electron Data Set.

The work presented here introduces a new data set for inclusion of energetic electron precipitation (EEP) in climate model simulations. Measurements made by the medium energy proton and electron detector (MEPED) instruments onboard both the Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites and the European Space Agency Meteorological Operational satellites are used to create global maps of precipitating electron fluxes. Unlike most previous data sets, the electron fluxes are computed using both the 0° and 90° MEPED detectors. Conversion of observed, broadband electron count rates to differential spectral fluxes uses a linear combination of analytical functions instead of a single function. Two dimensional maps of electron spectral flux are created using Delaunay triangulation to account for the relatively sparse nature of the MEPED sampling. This improves on previous studies that use a 1D interpolation over magnetic local time or L-shell zonal averaging of the MEPED data. A Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulation of the southern hemisphere 2003 winter using the new precipitating electron data set is shown to agree more closely with observations of odd nitrogen than WACCM simulations using other MEPED-based electron data sets. Simulated EEP-induced odd nitrogen increases led to ozone losses of more than 15% in the polar stratosphere near 10 hPa in September of 2003.

Lower Thermospheric Material Transport via Lagrangian Coherent Structures.

We show that inter-model variation due to under-constraint by observations impacts the ability to predict material transport in the lower thermosphere. Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs), indicating regions of maximal separation (or convergence) in a time-varying flow, are derived in the lower thermosphere from models for several space shuttle water vapor plume events. We find that inter-model differences in thermospheric transport manifest in LCSs in a way that is more stringent than mean wind analyses. LCSs defined using horizontal flow fields from the Specified Dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with thermosphere-ionosphere eXtension (SD-WACCMX) at 109 km altitude are compared to Global Ultraviolet Imager (GUVI) observations of the space shuttle main engine plume. In one case, SD-WACCMX predicts an LCS ridge to produce spreading not found in the observations. LCSs and tracer transport from SD-WACCMX and from data assimilative WACCMX (WACCMX + DART) are compared to each other and to GUVI observations. Differences in the modeled LCSs and tracer positions appear between SD-WACCMX and WACCMX + DART despite the similarity of mean winds. WACCMX + DART produces better tracer transport results for a July 2006 event, but it is unclear which model performs better in terms of LCS ridges. For a February 2010 event, when mean winds differ by up to 50 m/s between the models, differences in LCSs and tracer trajectories are even more severe. Low-pass filtering the winds up to zonal wavenumber 6 reduces but does not eliminate inter-model LCS differences. Inter-model alignment of LCSs improves at a lower 60 km altitude.

On the consistency of HNO3 and NO2 in the Aleutian High region from the Nimbus 7 LIMS Version 6 data set.

This study uses photochemical calculations along kinematic trajectories in conjunction with Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) observations to examine the changes in HNO3 and NO2 near 30 hPa in the region of the Aleutian High (AH) during the minor warming event of January 1979. An earlier analysis of Version 5 (V5) LIMS data indicated increases in HNO3 without a corresponding decrease in NO2 in that region and a quasi-wave 2 signature in the zonal distribution of HNO3, unlike the wave 1 signal in ozone and other tracers. Version 6 (V6) LIMS also shows an increase of HNO3 in that region, but NO2 is smaller than from V5. The focus here is to convey that V6 HNO3 and NO2 are of good quality, as shown by a re-examination of their mutual changes in the AH region. Photochemical model calculations initialized with LIMS V6 data show increases of about 2 ppbv in HNO3 over 10 days along trajectories terminating in the AH region on 28 January. Those increases are mainly a result of the nighttime heterogeneous conversion of N2O5 on background stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosols. Changes in the composition of the air parcels depend on the extent of exposure to sunlight and, hence, on the dynamically controlled history of the trajectories. Trajectories that begin in low latitudes and traverse to across the North Pole in a short time lead to the low HNO3 in the region separating the anticyclone from the polar vortex, both of which contain higher HNO3. These findings help to explain the observed seasonal evolution and areal extent of both species. V6 HNO3 and NO2 are suitable, within their errors, for the validation of stratospheric chemistry-climate models.

Observations of Reduced Turbulence and Wave Activity in the Arctic Middle Atmosphere Following the January 2015 Sudden Stratospheric Warming.

Measurements of turbulence and waves were made as part of the Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere Turbulence Experiment (MTeX) on the night of 25-26 January 2015 at Poker Flat Research Range, Chatanika, Alaska (65°N, 147°W). Rocket-borne ionization gauge measurements revealed turbulence in the 70- to 88-km altitude region with energy dissipation rates between 0.1 and 24 mW/kg with an average value of 2.6 mW/kg. The eddy diffusion coefficient varied between 0.3 and 134 m2/s with an average value of 10 m2/s. Turbulence was detected around mesospheric inversion layers (MILs) in both the topside and bottomside of the MILs. These low levels of turbulence were measured after a minor sudden stratospheric warming when the circulation continued to be disturbed by planetary waves and winds remained weak in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Ground-based lidar measurements characterized the ensemble of inertia-gravity waves and monochromatic gravity waves. The ensemble of inertia-gravity waves had a specific potential energy of 0.8 J/kg over the 40- to 50-km altitude region, one of the lowest values recorded at Chatanika. The turbulence measurements coincided with the overturning of a 2.5-hr monochromatic gravity wave in a depth of 3 km at 85 km. The energy dissipation rates were estimated to be 3 mW/kg for the ensemble of waves and 18 mW/kg for the monochromatic wave. The MTeX observations reveal low levels of turbulence associated with low levels of gravity wave activity. In the light of other Arctic observations and model studies, these observations suggest that there may be reduced turbulence during disturbed winters.

Lidar Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves From 2011 to 2015 at McMurdo (77.84°S, 166.69°E), Antarctica: 2. Potential Energy Densities, Lognormal Distributions, and Seasonal Variations.

Five years of Fe Boltzmann lidar's Rayleigh temperature data from 2011 to 2015 at McMurdo are used to characterize gravity wave potential energy mass density (E pm), potential energy volume density (E pv), vertical wave number spectra, and static stability N 2 in the stratosphere 30-50 km. E pm (E pv) profiles increase (decrease) with altitude, and the scale heights of E pv indicate stronger wave dissipation in winter than in summer. Altitude mean E ¯ pm and E ¯ pv obey lognormal distributions and possess narrowly clustered small values in summer but widely spread large values in winter. E ¯ pm and E ¯ pv vary significantly from observation to observation but exhibit repeated seasonal patterns with summer minima and winter maxima. The winter maxima in 2012 and 2015 are higher than in other years, indicating interannual variations. Altitude mean N 2 ¯ varies by ~30-40% from the midwinter maxima to minima around October and exhibits a nearly bimodal distribution. Monthly mean vertical wave number power spectral density for vertical wavelengths of 5-20 km increases from summer to winter. Using Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 data, we find that large values of E ¯ pm during wintertime occur when McMurdo is well inside the polar vortex. Monthly mean E ¯ pm are anticorrelated with wind rotation angles but positively correlated with wind speeds at 3 and 30 km. Corresponding correlation coefficients are -0.62, +0.87, and +0.80, respectively. Results indicate that the summer-winter asymmetry of E ¯ pm is mainly caused by critical level filtering that dissipates most gravity waves in summer. E ¯ pm variations in winter are mainly due to variations of gravity wave generation in the troposphere and stratosphere and Doppler shifting by the mean stratospheric winds.