Linking diet switching to reproductive performance across populations of two critically endangered mammalian herbivores.

Optimal foraging theory predicts that animals maximise energy intake by consuming the most valuable foods available. When resources are limited, they may include lower-quality fallback foods in their diets. As seasonal herbivore diet switching is understudied, we evaluate its extent and effects across three Kenyan reserves each for Critically Endangered eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli) and Grevy's zebra (Equus grevyi), and its associations with habitat quality, microbiome variation, and reproductive performance. Black rhino diet breadth increases with vegetation productivity (NDVI), whereas zebra diet breadth peaks at intermediate NDVI. Black rhino diets associated with higher vegetation productivity have less acacia (Fabaceae: Vachellia and Senegalia spp.) and more grass suggesting that acacia are fallback foods, upending conventional assumptions. Larger dietary shifts are associated with longer calving intervals. Grevy's zebra diets in high rainfall areas are consistently grass-dominated, whereas in arid areas they primarily consume legumes during low vegetation productivity periods. Whilst microbiome composition between individuals is affected by the environment, and diet composition in black rhino, seasonal dietary shifts do not drive commensurate microbiome shifts. Documenting diet shifts across ecological gradients can increase the effectiveness of conservation by informing habitat suitability models and improving understanding of responses to resource limitation.

Female reproductive skew exacerbates the extinction risk from poaching in the eastern black rhino.

Variation in individual demographic rates can have large consequences for populations. Female reproductive skew is an example of structured demographic heterogeneity where females have intrinsic qualities that make them more or less likely to breed. The consequences of reproductive skew for population dynamics are poorly understood in non-cooperatively breeding mammals, especially when coupled with other drivers such as poaching. We address this knowledge gap with population viability analyses using an age-specific, female-only, individual-based, stochastic population model built with long-term data for three Kenyan populations of the Critically Endangered eastern black rhino (Diceros bicornis michaeli). There was substantial reproductive skew, with a high proportion of females not breeding or doing so at very low rates. This had a large impact on the projected population growth rate for the smaller population on Ol Jogi. Moreover, including female reproductive skew exacerbates the effects of poaching, increasing the probability of extinction by approximately 70% under a simulated poaching pressure of 5% offtake per year. Tackling the effects of reproductive skew depends on whether it is mediated by habitat or social factors, with potential strategies including habitat and biological management respectively. Investigating and tackling reproductive skew in other species requires long-term, individual-level data collection.