Breast cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis by ethnic region, 2004-2018.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to examine the effects of age, diagnosis year (calendar period) and birth year (cohort) on the incidence trends of breast cancer among Golestan women, Northeast Iran, 2004-2018. METHODS: Incidence data were obtained by residential status (urban/rural) and ethnic region (Turkmens/non-Turkmens). We calculated age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100,000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) were calculated, and age-period-cohort (APC) models fitted to assess non-linear effects of period and cohort as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). RESULTS: The total number of female breast cancer cases in Golestan, 2004-2018, were 3853, with an overall ASR of 31.3. We found higher rates in urban population (40.5) and non-Turkmens region (38.5) compared to rural area (20.8) and Turkmens region (20.2), respectively. There were increasing trends in incidence rates overall (EAPC= 4.4; 95%CI: 2.2, 6.7), with greater changes in rural areas (EAPC=5.1), particularly among non-Turkmens (EAPC=5.8). The results of the APC analysis indicate the presence of significant non-linear cohort effects with increasing IRRs across successive birth cohorts (IRR=0.1 and IRR= 2.6 for the oldest and the youngest birth cohorts vs. the reference birth cohort, respectively). CONCLUSION: We found increasing trends in breast cancer incidence among Golestan women over the study period, with disparities in patterns and trends by residence area and ethnic region. The observed cohort effects suggest an increasing prevalence of key risk factors for breast cancer in this Iranian population. Further investigations are warranted to clarify the relationships between determinants such as reproductive factors and ethnicity in the region.

Esophageal and gastric cancer incidence trends in Golestan, Iran: An age-period-cohort analysis 2004 to 2018.

Golestan province in the northeast of Iran is part of the Asian esophageal cancer belt and is known as a high-risk area for esophageal (EC) and gastric cancers (GC). Data on incident cases of EC and GC during 2004 to 2018 were obtained from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). The age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated and presented per 100 000 person-years. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated. We also fitted age-period-cohort (APC) models to assess nonlinear period and cohort effects as incidence rate ratios (IRRs). Overall, 3004 new cases of EC (ASR = 15.7) and 3553 cases of GC (ASR = 18.3) were registered in the GPCR. We found significant decreasing trends in incidence rates of EC (EAPC = -5.0; 95% CI: -7.8 to -2.2) and less marked nonsignificant trends for GC (EAPC = -1.4; 95% CI: -4.0 to 1.4) during 2004 to 2018. There was a strong cohort effect for EC with a consistent decrease in the IRR across successive birth cohorts, starting with the oldest birth cohort (1924; IRR = 1.9 vs the reference birth cohort of 1947) through to the most recent cohort born in 1988 (IRR = 0.1). The marked declines in EC incidence rates in Golestan relate to generational changes in its underlying risk factors. Despite favorable trends, this population remains at high risk of both EC and GC. Further studies are warranted to measure the impact of the major risk factors on incidence with a view to designing effective preventative programs.

Development of an online cancer data collection and processing tool for population-based cancer registries in a low-resource setting: The CanDCap experience from Golestan, Iran.

BACKGROUND: Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR) with more than 15-years experiences developed an in-house online software called Cancer Data Collection and Processing (CanDCap) to improve its data collection operations from the conventional offline method to new online method. We aimed to report the methods and framework that GPCR applied to design and implementation of the CanDCap. METHODS: CanDCap was designed based on International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) protocols and standards and according to the GPCR workflow. CanDCap has two parts including a web-based online part for data collection and a windows-based part for data processing consisting of quality control and deduplication of repeated records. Questionnaire for User Interface Satisfaction (QUIS) was used in order to assess user interaction satisfaction. RESULTS: CanDCap was implemented in 2018 and could improve the quality of the GPCR data during its first three years of activity (2018-2020), during which about 9,000 records were registered. The coverage for optional items including national ID, father name, address and telephone number were improved from 23 %, 32 %, 83 % and 82 % in conventional offline method (2015-2017) to 83 %, 81 %, 87 %, and 90 % after using the CanDCap (2018-2020), respectively. The timeliness was also improved from 4 years to 2 years. Overall, user interaction satisfaction was acceptable (7.8 out of 9). CONCLUSION: CanDCap could resulted in improvement in data quality and timeliness of the GPCR as a cancer registry unit with limited resources. It has the potential to be considered as a model for population-based cancer registries in lower-resource settings.

Population-based cancer survival in the Golestan province in the northeastern part of Iran 2007-2012.

OBJECTIVE: We studied 5-year relative survival (RS) for 14 leading cancer sites in the population-based cancer registry (PBCR) of Golestan province in the northeastern part of Iran. METHODOLOGY: We followed patients diagnosed in 2007-2012 through data linkage with different databases, including the national causes of death registry and vital statistics office. We also followed the remaining patients through active contact. We used relative survival (RS) analysis to estimate 5-year age-standardized net survival for each cancer site. Multiple Imputation (MI) method was performed to obtain vital status for loss to follow-up (LTFU) cases. RESULTS: We followed 6910 cancer patients from Golestan PBCR. However, 2162 patients were loss to follow-up. We found a higher RS in women (29.5%, 95% CI, 27.5, 31.7) than men (21.0%, 95% CI, 19.5, 22.5). The highest RS was observed for breast cancer in women (RS=49.8%, 95% CI, 42.2, 56.9) and colon cancer in men (RS=37.9%, 95% CI, 31.2, 44.6). Pancreatic cancer had the lowest RS both in men (RS= 8.7%, 95% CI, 4.1, 13.5) and women (RS= 7.9%, 95% CI, 5.0, 10.8) CONCLUSION: Although the 5-year cancer survival rates were relatively low in the Golestan province, there were distinct variations by cancer site. Further studies are required to evaluate the survival trends in Golestan province over time and compare them with the rates in the neighboring provinces and other countries in the region.

Analysis of Competing Risks of Causes of Death in Cancer Patients from Golestan, Iran over Twelve Years (2004-2016).

BACKGROUND: Cancer-related causes of death (cancer CoD) are the main etiologies of death in cancer patients. Recent increase in survival rates of cancer patients resulted in higher risk of dying from causes other than cancer, called competing causes of death (competing CoD). We aim to characterize competing CoD among cancer patients in Golestan province, Northern Iran. METHODS: Data on cancer incidence was obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) dataset. Data on causes of death was obtained from the Golestan death registry (GDR) dataset. Using a linkage method between the GPCR and GDR dataset, we prepared the study dataset including data on vital status and causes of death in our cancer patients. The proportions of cancer CoD and competing CoD were calculated. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was considered to assess the relationship between competing CoD and other variables. RESULTS: Overall, 4,184 cancer patients died in the study population, including 2,488 men (59.9%). Cause of death in 3,455 cases was cancer and 729 cases (17.4%) died due to competing CoD. Ischemic heart disease (40.7%) was the most common competing CoD in our population. Higher survival rate was the strongest variable related to the competing CoD (adjusted OR=1.91; 95%CI: 1.61-2.26). Residence area, age group and year of death were other indicators of competing CoD in our population. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest high rates of competing CoD in our cancer patients. Competing CoD should be mentioned in cancer control planning both in clinical practice as well as in public health policy making.
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Cancer in Iran 2008 to 2025: Recent incidence trends and short-term predictions of the future burden.

Policymakers require estimates of the future number of cancer patients in order to allocate finite resources to cancer prevention, treatment and palliative care. We examine recent cancer incidence trends in Iran and present predicted incidence rates and new cases for the entire country for the year 2025. We developed a method for approximating population-based incidence from the pathology-based data series available nationally for the years 2008 to 2013, and augmented this with data from the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the years 2014 to 2016. We fitted time-linear age-period models to the recent incidence trends to quantify the future cancer incidence burden to the year 2025, delineating the contribution of changes due to risk and those due to demographic change. The number of new cancer cases is predicted to increase in Iran from 112 000 recorded cases in 2016 to an estimated 160 000 in 2025, a 42.6% increase, of which 13.9% and 28.7% were attributed to changes in risk and population structure, respectively. In terms of specific cancers, the greatest increases in cases are predicted for thyroid (113.8%), prostate (66.7%), female breast (63.0%) and colorectal cancer (54.1%). Breast, colorectal and stomach cancers were the most common cancers in Iran in 2016 and are predicted to remain the leading cancers nationally in 2025. The increasing trends in incidence of most common cancers in Iran reinforce the need for the tailored design and implementation of effective national cancer control programs across the country.

Trends in the Incidence of Stomach Cancer in Golestan Province, a High-risk Area in Northern Iran, 2004-2016.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to present the temporal and geographical trends in the incidence of stomach cancer in the Golestan province, a high-risk area in Northern Iran. METHODS: This study was conducted on stomach cancer cases registered in the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR) during 2004-2016. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100000 person-years were calculated. The Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the average annual percent changes (AAPC). We also calculated the contribution of population aging, population size and risk to the overall changes in incidence rates. RESULTS: Overall, 2964 stomach cancer patients were registered. The ASR of stomach cancer was significantly higher in men (26.9) than women (12.2) (P<0.01). There was a significant decreasing trend in incidence of stomach cancer in men (AAPC=-1.80, 95% CI: -3.30 to-0.28; P=0.02). We found a higher ASR of stomach cancer in the rural (21.4) than urban (18.1) (P=0.04) population, as well as a significant decreasing trend in its rates (AAPC=-2.14, 95% CI: -3.10to-1.17; P<0.01). The number of new cases of stomach cancer increased by 22.33% (from 215 in 2004 to 263 in 2016), of which 18.1%, 25.1% and -20.9% were due to population size, population aging and risk, respectively. Our findings suggest a higher rate for stomach cancer in eastern areas. CONCLUSION: We found high incidence rates as well as temporal and geographical diversities in ASR of stomach cancer in Golestan, Iran. Our results showed an increase in the number of new cases, mainly due to population size and aging. Further studies are warranted to determine the risk factors of this cancer in this high-risk population.

Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004-2025.

BACKGROUND: We examine recent trends in the major cancers occurring in the Golestan province, a high-risk region for upper gastrointestinal cancers in Northern Iran, and provide short-term cancer predictions of the future cancer burden. METHODS: New cancer cases diagnosed in Golestan 2004-2016 were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) database, and age-standardized rates by cancer site, year and sex calculated per 100,000 person-years. Using IARC's DepPred package we fitted time-linear age-period models to the available GPCR data to predict the cancer incidence burden in the year 2025. We calculated the contribution of demographic changes versus changes in risk to the overall changes in incidence from 2016 to 2025. RESULTS: The number of new cancer cases (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) in 2025 is predicted to increase by 61.3% from 2678 cases in 2016 to 4319 cases. While a 17.6% reduction in the number of esophageal cancer cases is predicted by 2025, the number of new cases for each of the remaining major cancers is predicted to increase over the next decade, including cancers of the stomach (a 36.1% increase from 2016 to 2025), colorectum (56.2%), lung (67.8%), female breast (93.2%), prostate (101.8%) and leukemia (96.1%). The changes in the population structure and risk contributed 37.8% and 23.5% respectively, to the overall increase in incidence. CONCLUSION: Other than for the major upper gastrointestinal cancer types, the incidence rates of common cancers observed in the province are on the rise, reinforcing the need for continuous surveillance, as well as the design and implementation of effective cancer control programs.

Descriptive Epidemiology of Lymphoma in Northern Iran: Results from the Golestan Registry 2004-2013.

BACKGROUND: There is currently little known about the epidemiology of lymphomas in Iran. The aim of this paper is to describe the geographic and time variations in incidence rates of lymphomas in the Golestan province between 2004 and 2013. METHODS: The Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR) routinely registers primary cancer patients from all sources (e.g. pathology centers, hospitals, etc.) throughout the Golestan province. We obtained data on newly-diagnosed lymphomas in Golestan during 2004-2013 from the GPCR dataset. Crude rates and age standardized incidence (ASR) rates (per 100000) of lymphomas were estimated, joinpoint regression was used to quantify incidence trends and average annual percent changes (AAPCs) were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 898 new cases of lymphoma were registered in the GPCR during 2004-2013. The ASR of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) was 1.5 and 1.1 in males and females, respectively, while corresponding non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) rates were greater, at 6.5 and 3.4 in males and females, respectively. Our results indicated a significant difference in the trends of HL between males (AAPC = -3.2) and females (AAPC = 3.6, P value = 0.001). The incidence rates of lymphoma were considerably higher in the urban population (ASR = 7.3) compared to those residing in rural areas (ASR = 5.3, P value = 0.054). We also found higher incidence rates for both HL and NHL in the western parts of the Golestan province. CONCLUSION: The incidence rates of lymphoma in the Golestan province are relatively high and vary geographically, with a higher incidence observed in the western area. Such differences may reflect unknown lifestyle and environmental determinants linked to ethnic susceptibility differing between the two areas.

Increasing trends of lung cancer in Golestan province, Northern Iran (2004-2016).

INTRODUCTION: We aimed to present the time trends and geographical distribution of lung cancer in Golestan province, a high-risk area for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) in Northern Iran (2004-2016). METHODS: Data on incident primary lung cancers were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry. The data were analyzed by CanReg-5 software to calculate the age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs). We used Joinpoint software for time trend analysis. Average annual percent changes were calculated. The contribution of population aging, population growth and risk to the overall changes in incidence of lung cancer were determined using partitioning analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 1829 cases of lung cancer were registered by the GPCR during 2004-2016, of which 1274 (69.7%, ASR in 2016 = 21.3) were men and 555 (30.3%, ASR in 2016 = 11.4) were women. The results of Joinpoint regression suggested a significant increasing trend in incidence of lung cancer in Golestan province during 2004 and 2016 (AAPC = 3.74; p-value = 0.01) with more prominent increasing in rural population (AAPC = 4.93; p-value<0.01). The number of new cases of lung cancer increased by 131.6% (from 98 in 2004 to 227 in 2016), of which 34.1%, 22.3% and 75.3% were due to population size, population aging and risk, respectively. Hot points of lung cancer were found in western parts of the Golestan. CONCLUSION: With high incidence rates and increasing trends of lung cancer, further studies are warranted to clarify the role of TB and other risk factors on its burden in this population.

Incidence of Malignant Brain and Central Nervous System Tumors in Golestan, Iran, 2004-2013.

BACKGROUND: Brain and other central nervous system (CNS) tumors represent almost 3% of all new cancer cases worldwide and comprise a heterogeneous group of tumors with varying epidemiologic and clinical characteristics. The aim of this study is to present the distribution and trends in brain and other CNS cancer incidence in Golestan, Iran during a 10-year period. METHODS: Data on primary brain and other CNS cancers diagnosed between 2004 and 2013 were obtained from the Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR) dataset. We computed age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) per 100000 personyears. In order to assess changes in incidence over time, we calculated the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to detect significant trends. RESULTS: Over the 10-year period (2004-2013), the incidence of brain and other CNS cancer was observed to increase for all ages (EAPC: 1.13, 95% CI: -6.06, 8.87). After 2008, the trends appear to have stabilized. Incidence rates were higher in males than females (ratio: 1.2) and glioblastoma was the most common tumor subtype (15.1% of all malignant tumors). CONCLUSION: Trends and patterns in the burden of brain and other CNS cancer require careful monitoring alongside future research to increase our understanding of potential risk factors.

Marked increase in breast cancer incidence in young women: A 10-year study from Northern Iran, 2004-2013.

INTRODUCTION: Breast cancer is the most frequent cancer among women worldwide. Breast cancer incidence in young women is a health issue of concern, especially in middle-income countries such as Iran. The aim of this study is to report the breast cancer incidence variations in Golestan province, Iran, over a 10-year period (2004-2013). METHODS: We analyzed data from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR), which is a high-quality cancer registry collecting data on primary cancers based on standard protocols throughout the Golestan province. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Time trends in ASRs and age-specific rates were evaluated using Joinpoint regressions. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with correspondence 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 2106 new breast cancer cases were diagnosed during the study period. Most cases occurred in women living in urban areas: 1449 cases (68%) versus 657 cases (31%) in rural areas. Statistically significant increasing trends were observed over the 10-year study period amongst women of all ages (AAPC = 4.4; 95%CI: 1.2-7.8) as well as amongst women in the age groups 20-29 years (AAPC = 10.0; 95%CI: 1.7-19.0) and 30-39 years (AAPC = 5.1; 95%CI: 1.4-9.0). CONCLUSION: The incidence of breast cancer increased between 2004 and 2013 in Golestan province amongst all age groups, and in particular amongst women aged 20-39 years. Breast cancer should be considered a high priority for health policy making in our community.

Cancer incidence in Iran in 2014: Results of the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to report, for the first time, the results of the Iranian National Population-based Cancer Registry (INPCR) for the year 2014. METHODS: Total population of Iran in 2014 was 76,639,000. The INPCR covered 30 out of 31 provinces (98% of total population). It registered only cases diagnosed with malignant new primary tumors. The main sources for data collection included pathology center, hospitals as well as death registries. Quality assessment and analysis of data were performed by CanReg-5 software. Age standardized incidence rates (ASR) (per 100,000) were reported at national and subnational levels. RESULTS: Overall, 112,131 new cancer cases were registered in INPCR in 2014, of which 60,469 (53.9%) were male. The diagnosis of cancer was made by microscopic confirmation in 76,568 cases (68.28%). The ASRs of all cancers were 177.44 and 141.18 in male and female, respectively. Cancers of the stomach (ASR = 21.24), prostate (18.41) and colorectum (16.57) were the most common cancers in men and the top three cancers in women were malignancies of breast (34.53), colorectum (11.86) and stomach (9.44). The ASR of cervix uteri cancer in women was 1.78. Our findings suggested high incidence of cancers of the esophagus, stomach and lung in North/ North West of Iran. CONCLUSION: Our results showed that Iran is a medium-risk area for incidence of cancers. We found differences in the most common cancers in Iran comparing to those reported for the World. Our results also suggested geographical diversities in incidence rates of cancers in different subdivisions of Iran.

Completeness and Accuracy of Death Registry Data in Golestan, Iran.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to evaluate completeness and accuracy of the Golestan Death Registry (GDR) to identify cancer-related causes of death (CCoD). METHODS: The GDR data (2004-2015) were compared with cancer data collected from clinical/pathological sources (the considered gold standard) by the Golestan Population-Based Cancer Registry (GPCR). Using a linkage method, matched cases, including subjects with CCoD and those with ill-defined cause of death (ICoD) (garbage codes), were identified and entered into the final analysis as study subjects. The completeness (percentage of study subjects with CCoD) and accuracy (number of subjects with correct CoD from the total number of study subjects) of the GDR were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 3,766 matched cases were enrolled. Overall, the completeness and accuracy of the GDR for identifying CCoD were 92.7% and 53.2%, respectively. There were variations by cancer site and age group, with completeness and accuracy highest for brain cancer (96.3%) and leukaemia (79.8%) while the lowest accuracy was observed for colorectal cancer (29.9%). The completeness and accuracy of GDR was higher in patients aged under 60 years (95.7% and 53.6%, respectively). We also found higher completeness (93.7%) and accuracy (55.8%) in residents of rural areas. CONCLUSION: Linkage of death registry data with cancer registry data can be a significant resource for evaluating quality of the death registry data. Our findings suggested that completeness of the GDR for identifying CCoD is reasonable, but accuracy is relatively low. Access to clinical and pathological data from other sources and enhanced training of death certifiers can improve the present situation.

Temporal and geographical variations in colorectal cancer incidence in Northern Iran 2004-2013.

INTRODUCTION: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common cancers in the Golestan province, Northern Iran. The purpose of this study is to describe colorectal cancer incidence patterns and trends in the province 2004-2013. METHODS: Data on CRC cases were obtained from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR). The GPCR is a high-quality cancer registry that collects data on primary cancers according to internationally accepted standard protocols. Age-standardized Incidence rates (ASR) were calculated and the 10-year trend quantified using the average annual percentage change (AAPC) from Joinpoint regressions. RESULTS: The overall ASR of CRC were higher in men (14.8 per 100,000 person-years) and the urban populations (35.4), relative to women (11.5) and the rural populations (17.1), respectively. The overall incidence rate was observed to significantly increase 2004-2013 in men (AAPC = 7.3; 95%CI: 2.9-11.8) and women (AAPC = 6.6; 95%CI: 2.7-10.6). The analysis also showed that urban areas (AAPC = 8.1; 95%CI: 2.4-14.1) had a relatively more rapid increase in rates compared to rural areas (AAPC = 6.9; 95%CI: 2.2-11.7). CONCLUSIONS: CRC incidence rates in Golestan have been rising during the most recent decade, with a higher incidence and more rapid increases among men and the urban populations. The underlying risk factors should be assessed in the context of developing CRC prevention interventions in Golestan.

Epidemiology of Head and Neck Cancers in Northern Iran: A 10-Year Trend Study From Golestan Province.

BACKGROUND: Golestan province, in Northern Iran, is a high-risk area for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). SCC is also the most common histological type of cancers of the head and neck region including cancers of oral cavity, oropharynx, hypopharynx and larynx. We aimed to present the incidence rate of head and neck SCC (HNSCC) in Golestan province during 2004 and 2013. METHODS: Data on HNSCC were obtained from Golestan population-based cancer registry (GPCR). Quality control and data analysis were performed using CanReg software. Age standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were calculated using the world standard population. The ASRs were presented per 100000 person-years for different genders, residence places and years. RESULTS: During the 10-year period from 2004-2013, 434 cases of HNSCC were registered. 327 (75.3%) of these cases were male, 51.2% (222 cases) lived in urban areas and 351 (80.9%) of the total HNSCCs occurred in the larynx. Overall, the ASR of HNSCCs in Golestan province was 4.8. The ASR of HNSCCs was more than two-fold higher in male (6.6) than female (3.0). Our results showed an increasing trend in ASR of larynx cancer during the study period both in male and female. CONCLUSION: We found relatively high rates of larynx cancer in Golestan province. Our results also showed higher rates of HNSCC in males and urban population. Considering common risk factors between HNSCCs and esophageal cancer, further studies are needed to clarify different aspects of HNSCCs (including epidemiology and risk factors) in this high-risk population.