Fifteen research needs for understanding climate change impacts on ecosystems and society in the Norwegian High North.

There is an urgent need to understand and address the risks associated with a warming climate for ecosystems and societies in the Arctic and sub-Arctic regions. There are major gaps in our understanding of the complex effects of climate change-including extreme events, cascading impacts across ecosystems, and the underlying socioecological dynamics and feedbacks-all of which need collaborative efforts to be resolved. Here, we present results where climate scientists, ecologists, social scientists, and practitioners were asked to identify the most urgent research needs for understanding climate change impacts and to identify the actions for reducing future risks in catchment areas in the Norwegian High North, a region that encompasses both Arctic and sub-Arctic climates in northern Norway. From a list of 77 questions, our panel of 19 scientists and practitioners identified 15 research needs that should be urgently addressed. We particularly urge researchers to investigate cross-ecosystem impacts and the socioecological feedbacks that could amplify or reduce risks for society.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on human-nature relations in a remote nature-based tourism destination.

Tourism and nature-based recreation has changed dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic. Travel restrictions caused sharp declines in visitation numbers, particularly in remote areas, such as northern Norway. In addition, the pandemic may have altered human-nature relationships by changing visitor behaviour and preferences. We studied visitor numbers and behaviour in northern Norway, based on user-generated data, in the form of photographic material that was uploaded to the popular online platform Flickr. A total of 195.200 photographs, taken by 5.247 photographers were subjected to Google's "Cloud Vision" automatic content analysis algorithm. The resulting collection of labels that were assigned to each photograph was analysed in structural topic models, using photography date (relative to the start of the pandemic measures in Norway) and reported or estimated photographers' nationality as explanatory variables. Our results show that nature-based recreation relating to "mountains" and "winter" became more prevalent during the pandemic, amongst both domestic and international photographers. Shifts in preferences due to the pandemic outbreak strongly depended on nationality, with domestic visitors demonstrating a wide interest in topics while international visitors maintained their preference for nature-based experiences. Among those activities that suffered the most from decline in international tourism was northern lights and cruises as indicated by the topic models. On the other hand, images depicting mountains and flora and fauna increased their prevalence during the pandemic. Domestic visitors, on the other hand, spent more time in urban settings as a result of restrictions, which results in a higher prevalence of non-nature related images. Our results underscore the need to consider the dynamic nature of human-nature relationships. The contrast in flexibility to adapt to changing conditions and travel restrictions should be incorporated in collaborative efforts of municipalities and tour operators to develop sustainable local nature-based tourism products, particularly in remote areas.

causalizeR: a text mining algorithm to identify causal relationships in scientific literature.

Complex interactions among multiple abiotic and biotic drivers result in rapid changes in ecosystems worldwide. Predicting how specific interactions can cause ripple effects potentially resulting in abrupt shifts in ecosystems is of high relevance to policymakers, but difficult to quantify using data from singular cases. We present causalizeR (https://github.com/fjmurguzur/causalizeR), a text-processing algorithm that extracts causal relations from literature based on simple grammatical rules that can be used to synthesize evidence in unstructured texts in a structured manner. The algorithm extracts causal links using the relative position of nouns relative to the keyword of choice to extract the cause and effects of interest. The resulting database can be combined with network analysis tools to estimate the direct and indirect effects of multiple drivers at the network level, which is useful for synthesizing available knowledge and for hypothesis creation and testing. We illustrate the use of the algorithm by detecting causal relationships in scientific literature relating to the tundra ecosystem.

Blue justice: A survey for eliciting perceptions of environmental justice among coastal planners' and small-scale fishers in Northern-Norway.

Ocean-based economic development arising from an increasing interest in the 'blue economy' is placing ecosystems and small-scale fisheries under pressure. The dominant policy response for dealing with multiple uses is the allocation of coastal space through coastal zone planning (CZP). Recent studies have shown that the rush to develop the blue economy and regulate coastal activity can result in social injustices and the exclusion of less powerful and unrecognized groups (e.g., small-scale fishers, women, Indigenous peoples and youth). To achieve a primary goal of the 2030 sustainable development agenda to "leave no one behind", it is important to understand the implications of coastal planning and development for these groups. Here, we present a social survey protocol for examining perceptions of justice related to small-scale fisheries (SSF) in the context of the blue economy in coastal areas. Specifically, we designed the survey instrument and sampling protocol to assess whether decisions about the use of the coastal zone over the last five years have i) followed principles of good governance, ii) recognized fishers' knowledge, culture and rights and iii) been attentive to impacts of changed coastal zone use on fisheries. The survey will engage coastal planners (N = app. 120) and fishers (N = app. 4300) in all the coastal municipalities (N = 81) in Northern-Norway. The sampling protocol is designed to ensure representation of different sectors of society, including those defined by gender, age, ethnicity and occupation (e.g., small-scale fishers, large-scale fishers, coastal planners).

Understanding and managing the interactions of impacts from nature-based recreation and climate change.

Disturbance to ecosystems in parks and protected areas from nature-based tourism and recreation is increasing in scale and severity, as are the impacts of climate change-but there is limited research examining the degree to which these anthropogenic disturbances interact. In this perspective paper, we draw on the available literature to expose complex recreation and climate interactions that may alter ecosystems of high conservation value such that important species and processes no longer persist. Our emphasis is on ecosystems in high demand for tourism and recreation that also are increasingly experiencing stress from climate change. We discuss the importance of developing predictive models of direct and indirect effects, including threshold and legacy effects at different levels of biological organization. We present a conceptual model of these interactions to initiate a dialog among researchers and managers so that new research approaches and managerial frameworks are advanced to address this emerging issue.

Quantifying tourism booms and the increasing footprint in the Arctic with social media data.

Arctic tourism has rapidly increased in the past two decades. We used social media data to examine localized tourism booms and quantify the spatial expansion of the Arctic tourism footprint. We extracted geotagged locations from over 800,000 photos on Flickr and mapped these across space and time. We critically examine the use of social media as a data source in data-poor regions, and find that while social media data is not suitable as an early warning system of tourism growth in less visited parts of the world, it can be used to map changes at large spatial scales. Our results show that the footprint of summer tourism quadrupled and winter tourism increased by over 600% between 2006 and 2016, although large areas of the Arctic remain untouched by tourism. This rapid increase in the tourism footprint raises concerns about the impacts and sustainability of tourism on Arctic ecosystems and communities. This boom is set to continue, as new parts of the Arctic are being opened to tourism by melting sea ice, new airports and continued promotion of the Arctic as a 'last chance to see' destination. Arctic societies face complex decisions about whether this ongoing growth is socially and environmentally sustainable.

Stakeholders' perceptions of protected area management following a nationwide community-based conservation reform.

People's perceptions can point to reasons for conservation support or lack thereof. In this study, we surveyed the perceptions of conservation among local stakeholders who participated in protected area (PA) management following a reform towards community-based conservation in Norway. We analyzed the link between perceptions of threats to conservation values, prioritized management actions and trust in PA governance, and assessed how these perceptions aligned with the stakeholders' preferred overarching conservation approach and their support for PAs. Conservation perceptions differed mostly between property owners and representatives of nature conservation (such as NGOs). Property owners perceived modern farming, grazing and hay making, and securing the interests of rights holders as a priority. They had a lower support for PAs and favored a conservation approach focusing on "people and nature". Representatives from nature conservation prioritized management actions to increase biodiversity and reduce land development, had higher trust in environmental authorities and identified motorized vehicle use as a threat to conservation values. They had a high support for PAs and favored a conservation approach that mitigates threats from human activity (i.e. "nature despite people"). The nationwide reform aimed at increasing support for PAs, but 31% of the members of the stakeholder advisory councils were willing to downgrade or degazette PAs for the benefit of economic development, which is much more than general population surveys. However, the level of trust in local governance was less polarized among the members of stakeholder advisory councils compared with the former state governance, which suggests that that the community-based conservation reform has the potential to improve collaboration and conflict mitigation.

Local land use associated with socio-economic development in six arctic regions.

The socioeconomic causes of land use change are complex. They are highly context dependent, but most often studied through case studies. Here, we use a quasi-experimental paired block design to investigate whether better access to wage income leads to more visible land use around 28 settlements in six regions of the circumpolar Arctic. We mapped visible land use on high-resolution satellite images taken both close to the settlements, and in a more remote area of extensive land use, and payed special attention to tracks of off-road vehicles (ORV). Despite considerable differences among regions, there was an overall positive relationship between better access to wage income and land use. Reindeer herding was also associated with more visible use, in particular ORV tracks. These results suggest that access to wage income in the mixed subsistence-cash communities of the Arctic could lead to more local use related to harvesting and reindeer herding.

Arctic greening from warming promotes declines in caribou populations.

The migratory tundra caribou herds in North America follow decadal population cycles, and browsing from abundant caribou could be expected to counteract the current climate-driven expansion of shrubs in the circumpolar tundra biome. We demonstrate that the sea ice cover in the Arctic Ocean has provided a strong signal for climate-induced changes on the adjacent caribou summer ranges, outperforming other climate indices in explaining the caribou-plant dynamics. We found no evidence of a negative effect of caribou abundance on vegetation biomass. On the contrary, we found a strong bottom-up effect in which a warmer climate related to diminishing sea ice has increased the plant biomass on the summer pastures, along with a paradoxical decline in caribou populations. This result suggests that this climate-induced greening has been accompanied by a deterioration of pasture quality. The shrub expansion in Arctic North America involves plant species with strong antibrowsing defenses. Our results might therefore be an early signal of a climate-driven shift in the caribou-plant interaction from a system with low plant biomass modulated by cyclic caribou populations to a system dominated by nonedible shrubs and diminishing herds of migratory caribou.

Community-based management: under what conditions do Sámi pastoralists manage pastures sustainably?

Community-based management (CBM) has been implemented in socio-ecological systems (SES) worldwide. CBM has also been the prevailing policy in Sámi pastoral SES in Norway, but the outcomes tend to vary extensively among resource groups ("siidas"). We asked why do some siidas self-organize to manage common pool resources sustainably and others do not? To answer this question we used a mixed methods approach. First, in the statistical analyses we analyzed the relationship between sustainability indicators and structural variables. We found that small winter pastures that are shared by few siidas were managed more sustainably than larger pastures. Seasonal siida stability, i.e., a low turnover of pastoralists working together throughout the year, and equality among herders, also contributed to more sustainable outcomes. Second, interviews were conducted in the five largest pastures to explain the relationships between the structural variables and sustainability. The pastoralists expressed a high level of agreement with respect to sustainable policies, but reported a low level of trust and cooperation among the siidas. The pastoralists requested siida tenures or clear rules and sanctioning mechanisms by an impartial authority rather than flexible organization or more autonomy for the siidas. The lack of nestedness in self-organization for managing pastures on larger scales, combined with the past economic policies, could explain why CBM is less sustainable on the largest winter pastures. We conclude that the scale mis-match between self-organization and the formal governance is a key condition for sustainability.

Incentives and regulations to reconcile conservation and development: thirty years of governance of the Sami pastoral ecosystem in Finnmark, Norway.

Incentive-based mechanisms are regarded as efficient instruments to reconcile conservation and development. This win-win objective has been difficult to accomplish; cross-compliance has, therefore, been suggested as a mechanism to ensure sustainability. Cross-compliance, which requires producers to conform to production regulations and environmental standards to qualify for direct payments, has been a popular instrument in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform. Since 1990, cross-compliance has been the main characteristic of policy design in Sami reindeer husbandry in Finnmark, Norway. All direct transfers to the Sami pastoralists have been connected to harvesting demands to decrease the number of reindeer and to conserve pastures. The content of these incentive-based mechanisms are decided through negotiated agreements with the Sami Reindeer Herders' Association of Norway (NRL), and the regulation of reindeer numbers and access to pastures are delegated to co-management boards. Despite the participation of the Sami pastoralists in shaping these policies, win-win objectives have not been achieved. Although the cross-compliance program could have been improved by payment for graded results, the lack of regulations by the administration or co-management boards is more likely to be the cause of failure to reach sustainability. Despite the long-term failures of the cross-compliance program, policies have been slow to change. We might attribute this delay to the NRL's strong position in the negotiated agreements. In general, we argue that the success of the cross-compliance program depends on a well-functioning governance system that can implement regulations and sanctions if incentives do not work as intended.

Scale-dependent response diversity of seabirds to prey in the North Sea.

Functional response diversity is defined as the diversity of responses to environmental change among species that contribute to the same ecosystem function. Because different ecological processes dominate on different spatial and temporal scales, response diversity is likely to be scale dependent. Using three extensive data sets on seabirds, pelagic fish, and zooplankton, we investigate the strength and diversity in the response of seabirds to prey in the North Sea over three scales of ecological organization. Two-stage analyses were used to partition the variance in the abundance of predators and prey among the different scales of investigation: variation from year to year, variation among habitats, and variation on the local patch scale. On the year-to-year scale, we found a strong and synchronous response of seabirds to the abundance of prey, resulting in low response diversity. Conversely, as different seabird species were found in habitats dominated by different prey species, we found a high diversity in the response of seabirds to prey on the habitat scale. Finally, on the local patch scale, seabirds were organized in multispecies patches. These patches were weakly associated with patches of prey, resulting in a weak response strength and a low response diversity. We suggest that ecological similarities among seabird species resulted in low response diversity on the year-to-year scale. On the habitat scale, we suggest that high response diversity was due to interspecific competition and niche segregation among seabird species. On the local patch scale, we suggest that facilitation with respect to the detection and accessibility of prey patches resulted in overlapping distribution of seabirds but weak associations with prey. The observed scale dependencies in response strength and diversity have implications for how the seabird community will respond to different environmental disturbances.