Migration plans of the rural populations of the Third World countries: a probit analysis of micro-level data from Asia, Africa, and Latin America.

PIP: This study 1) examines the extent to which a given set of microlevel factors has predictive value in different socioeconomic settings and 2) demonstrates the utility of a probit estimation technique in examining plans of rural populations to migrate. Data were collected in 1977-1979 in Thailand, Egypt, and Colombia, 3 countries which differ in culture, extent of urbanization, and proportion of labor force engaged in nonextractive industries. The researchers used identical questionnaires and obtained interviews in 4 rural villages with the "migration shed" of each country's capital city. There were 1088 rural-resident men and women interviewed in Thailand, 1088 in Colombia, and 1376 in Egypt. The researchers gathered information about year-to-year changes in residence, marital status, fertility, housing, employment status, occupation, and industry. While in all 3 countries return moves are relatively frequent, especially among males, the proportions of migrants who have moved 3 or more times do not rise above 10%. The model used portrays the formation of migration intentions of the individual as the outcome of a decision process involving the subjective weighing of perceived differentials in well-being associated with current residence and 1 or more potential destinations, taking into account the direct relocation costs and ability to finance a move. The researchers used dichotomous probit and ordinal probit techniques and 4 variations on the dependant variable to generate some of the results. The only expectancy variable significant in all countries is age. Education is also positively and significantly associated with intentions to move for both sexes in Colombia and Egypt. Marital status is a deterrent to migration plans for males in Colombia and both sexes in Egypt. Previous migration experience fails to show any significant relationship to propensity to move. Conclusions drawn from the data include: 1) the effects of age and economic status appear to increase, both in strength and significance, for males in countries as the likelihood of a move increases; and 2) the effect of the kin and friend contract variable in Colombia appears to be related to its usefulness in explaining th initial consideration of a move rather than the plans that carry a probability or certainty of implementation. The careful measurement of strength of migration intentions and the application of ordinal probit estimation methods to the analysis of prospective migration may contribute to the refinement of our understanding of the process of migration decision making across a range of geographical, cultural, and developmental contexts.^ieng

Migration and the transformation of employment and household structures.

Data collected in Colombia and Thailand in 1977 are used to "compare the employment and household characteristics of migrants before and after the move in order to assess the degree of change which accompanies migration. Moreover, these comparisons [are] made for migration streams between places at different levels in the urban hierarchy with the intention of determining within which streams the greatest transformations occur."

The study of urbanization.

Seven years' work of the Committee on Urbanization of the Social Science Research Council has produced The Study of Urbanization. Although the book is an excellent series of documentations of trends in specific fields, it lacks any attempt to unify the contributions to a concise definition of urbanization.Most contributors view urbanization as a process of aggregation, but this is no more than a rough indicator of the fundamental processes at work, and each discipline explores only the matter confined to its assigned segment of the process. Thus, for example, the city is viewed as a sub-division of localized space; as a complex of markets for land, labor, housing, and goods and services; or as a set of market-social units. From what is offered in this volume, then, one is led to think that sociology cannot find a comprehensive approach to fashioning a general model of urbanization.While three papers come close to defining urbanization as substance and process and are an orderly account of at least the salient features of urbanization through early, transitional, and late phases, urbanization as a process in different areas and cultures is a subject which is treated casually. While the very concept of urbanization implies the recurrence of common features, a set of criteria for avoiding preoccupation with the exotic and inconsequential in different cultures is still needed. We need to study the significance of the fact that peoples of various parts of the world have entered urbanization at different points in industrial, institutional, and administrative technology. Here, organization, the most commonly agreed upon variable in this book, is not a sufficient explanation.In sum, the subject is too broad for close agreement, but the failure of the book to achieve its objective is counterbalanced by the individual quality of the contributions.

Family growth and family planning: Responses to a family-planning action program in a rural district of Thailand.

A resurvey of a rural district in Thailand, of about 70,000 population, was conducted after a family-planning program had been in operation for eight months in order to ascertain indications of effectiveness of the program. Both the "before" and "after" surveys employed a 25 percent simple random, though non-overlapping, sample of married women 20-44 years of age whose husbands were living. The only difference in design and execution was the inclusion in the resurvey of questions about the action program. Barring one or two exceptions, the characteristics of the two population samples were so similar that differences in knowledge, attitudes, and practices could be regarded as effects of the program.The action program not only made itself widely known in the district, it also evoked a highly favorable appraisal, to such an extent that nine of every ten women thought the program should be extended over the entire kingdom. Motivation to engage in family planning increased perceptibly. A substantial proportion (23 percent) of the women who formerly disapproved of the practice changed their attitudes to approval, mainly because they had become convinced of the harmlessness and the utility of fertility control. Less than 3 percent of the former approvers had become negative.The proportion of women who claimed some kind of knowledge about contraceptive methods more than doubled during the eight months of the program's operation. More impressive, however, was the change in actual use of methods, which rose from 1 to 21 percent of the eligible women (women who were not pregnant, subfecund, or sterilized). Another 16 percent, in the resurvey, planned to begin use of contraceptives in the near future, in most instances after a current pregnancy. The frequency of acceptance of family planning practice exceeded the expected frequency among women who were approaching or had attained the "ideal" number of children (4.0 children). High-parity women 40 or more years of age seldom accepted clinical assistance.