Carboxyhaemoglobin concentration, smoking habit, and mortality in 25 years in the Renfrew/Paisley prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate how carboxyhaemoglobin concentration is related to smoking habit and to assess whether carboxyhaemoglobin concentration is related to mortality. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Residents of the towns of Renfrew and Paisley in Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: The whole Renfrew/Paisley study, conducted between 1972 and 1976, consisted of 7048 men and 8354 women aged 45-64 years. This study was based on 3372 men and 4192 women who were screened after the measurement of carboxyhaemoglobin concentration was introduced about halfway through the study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), lung cancer, and all causes in 25 years after screening. RESULTS: Carboxyhaemoglobin concentration was related to self reported smoking and for each smoking category was higher in participants who reported inhaling than in those who reported not inhaling. Carboxyhaemoglobin concentration was positively related to all causes of mortality analysed (relative rates associated with a 1 SD (2.93) increase in carboxyhaemoglobin for all causes, CHD, stroke, COPD, and lung cancer were 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.19 to 1.34), 1.19 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.26), 1.19 (95% CI 1.13 to 1.26), 1.64 (95% CI 1.47 to 1.84), and 1.69 (95% CI 1.60 to 1.79), respectively). Adjustment for self reported cigarette smoking attenuated the associations but they remained relatively strong. CONCLUSIONS: Self reported smoking data were validated by the objective measure of carboxyhaemoglobin concentration. Since carboxyhaemoglobin concentration remained associated with mortality after adjustment for smoking, carboxyhaemoglobin seems to capture more of the risk associated with smoking tobacco than does self reported tobacco consumption alone. Analysing mortality by self reported cigarette smoking underestimates the strength of association between smoking and mortality.

Social class differences in lung cancer mortality: risk factor explanations using two Scottish cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: The study investigated differences in lung cancer mortality risk between social classes. METHODS: Twenty years of mortality follow-up were analysed in 7052 men and 8354 women from the Renfrew/Paisley general population study and 4021 working men from the Collaborative study. RESULTS: More manual than non-manual men and women smoked, reported morning phlegm, had worse lung function and lived in more deprived areas. Lung cancer mortality rates were higher in manual than non-manual men and women. Significantly higher lung cancer mortality risks were seen for manual compared to non-manual workers when adjusting for age only and adjustment for smoking reduced these risks to 1.41 (95% CI : 1.12-1.77) for men in the Renfrew/Paisley study, 1.28 (95% CI : 0.94-1.75) for women in the Renfrew/Paisley study and 1.43 (95% CI : 1.02-2.01) for men in the Collaborative study. Adjustment for lung function, phlegm and deprivation category attenuated the risks which were of borderline significance for men in the Renfrew/Paisley study and non significant for women in the Renfrew/Paisley study and men in the Collaborative study. Adding extra socioeconomic variables, available in the Collaborative study only, reduced the difference between the manual and non-manual social classes completely. CONCLUSIONS: There is a difference in lung cancer risk between social classes, in addition to the effect of smoking. This can be explained by poor lung health, deprivation and poor socioeconomic conditions throughout life. As well as anti-smoking measures, reducing socioeconomic inequalities and targeting individuals with poor lung function for help with smoking cessation could help reduce future lung cancer incidence and mortality.

Alcohol consumption and mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, and stroke: results from a prospective cohort study of scottish men with 21 years of follow up.

OBJECTIVES: To relate alcohol consumption to mortality. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: 27 workplaces in the west of Scotland. PARTICIPANTS: 5766 men aged 35-64 when screened in 1970-3 who answered questions on their usual weekly alcohol consumption. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality from all causes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and alcohol related causes over 21 years of follow up related to units of alcohol consumed per week. RESULTS: Risk for all cause mortality was similar for non-drinkers and men drinking up to 14 units a week. Mortality risk then showed a graded association with alcohol consumption (relative rate compared with non-drinkers 1. 34 (95% confidence interval 1.14 to 1.58) for 15-21 units a week, 1. 49 (1.27 to 1.75) for 22-34 units, 1.74 (1.47 to 2.06) for 35 or more units). Adjustment for risk factors attenuated the increased relative risks, but they remained significantly above 1 for men drinking 22 or more units a week. There was no strong relation between alcohol consumption and mortality from coronary heart disease after adjustment. A strong positive relation was seen between alcohol consumption and risk of mortality from stroke, with men drinking 35 or more units having double the risk of non-drinkers, even after adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: The overall association between alcohol consumption and mortality is unfavourable for men drinking over 22 units a week, and there is no clear evidence of any protective effect for men drinking less than this.

Pre-existing ischaemic heart disease and ischaemic heart disease mortality in women compared with men.

BACKGROUND: In all 8353 women and 7058 men aged 45-64 took part in the Renfrew/Paisley survey in 1972-1976. They formed a prospective cohort study of a general population in the West of Scotland; an area with high ischaemic heart disease (IHD) mortality rates. The objective of this study was to investigate three indicators of pre-existing IHD and determine how they predicted subsequent IHD mortality in females compared with males. METHODS: Pre-existing IHD was ascertained by the Rose Angina questionnaire, a question on severe chest pain indicating evidence of previous IHD and an electrocardiogram at a screening examination. Mortality information for a 15-year follow-up period was available. RESULTS: Pre-existing IHD was higher at older ages and was less common in women than men. The risks of IHD mortality were doubled for those with a single cardiovascular indicator compared to those without, and were increased to fourfold for those with two or more indicators. Indicators of pre-existing IHD had high specificity and low sensitivity for subsequent IHD mortality in both women and men, and the positive predictive values for women in the oldest age group were similar to those for men in the youngest age group. CONCLUSIONS: Each indicator of pre-existing IHD was a useful predictor of subsequent IHD mortality in both women and men, even though IHD mortality rates were lower in women. The indicators obtained by questionnaire could be implemented in the primary health care setting to identify quickly those at risk who would benefit from further investigation and intervention.

Association of cardiovascular disease risk factors with socioeconomic position during childhood and during adulthood.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate strength of associations between risk factors for cardiovascular disease and socioeconomic position during childhood and adulthood. DESIGN: Cross sectional analysis of status of cardiovascular risk factors and past and present social circumstances. SUBJECTS: 5645 male participants in the west of Scotland collaborative study, a workplace screening study. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Strength of association between each risk factor for cardiovascular disease (diastolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol concentration, level of recreational physical exercise, cigarette smoking, body mass index, and FEV1 score (forced expiratory volume in one second as percentage of expected value) and social class during childhood (based on father's main occupation) and adulthood (based on own occupation at time of screening). RESULTS: All the measured risk factors were significantly associated with both father's and own social class (P < 0.05), apart from exercise and smoking (not significantly associated with father's social class) and body mass index (not significantly associated with own social class). For all risk factors except body mass index, the regression coefficient of own social class was larger than the regression coefficient of father's social class. The difference between the coefficients was significant for serum cholesterol concentration, cigarette smoking, body mass index, and FEV1 score (all P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Subjects' status for behavioural risk factors (exercise and smoking) was associated primarily with current socioeconomic circumstances, while status for physiological risk factors (serum cholesterol, blood pressure, body mass index, and FEV1) was associated to varying extents with both past and present socioeconomic circumstances.

Impaired lung function and mortality risk in men and women: findings from the Renfrew and Paisley prospective population study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relation between forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and subsequent mortality. DESIGN: Prospective general population study. SETTING: Renfrew and Paisley, Scotland. SUBJECTS: 7058 men and 8353 women aged 45-64 years at baseline screening in 1972-6. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Mortality from all causes, ischaemic heart disease, cancer, hung and other cancers, stroke, respiratory disease, and other causes of death after 15 years of follow up. RESULTS: 2545 men and 1894 women died during the follow up period. Significant trends of increasing risk with diminishing FEV1 are apparent for both sexes for all the causes of death examined after adjustment for age, cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, cholesterol concentration, body mass index, and social class. The relative hazard ratios for all cause mortality for subjects in the lowest fifth of the FEV1 distribution were 1.92 (95% confidence interval 1.68 to 2.20) for men and 1.89 (1.63 to 2.20) for women. Corresponding relative hazard ratios were 1.56 (1.26 to 1.92) and 1.88 (1.44 to 2.47) for ischaemic heart disease, 2.53 (1.69 to 3.79) and 4.37 (1.84 to 10.42) for lung cancer, and 1.66 (1.07 to 2.59) and 1.65 (1.09 to 2.49) for stroke. Reduced FEV1 was also associated with an increased risk for each cause of death examined except cancer for lifelong nonsmokers. CONCLUSIONS: Impaired lung function is a major clinical indicator of mortality risk in men and women for a wide range of diseases. The use of FEV1 as part of any health assessment of middle aged patients should be considered. Smokers with reduced FEV1 should form a priority group for targeted advice to stop smoking.

Trends in renal disease morbidity and mortality in the United States, 1979 to 1990.

Four indices of morbidity and mortality due to seven groups of renal diseases are evaluated in the United States for the period 1979 through 1990. These indices include mortality, hospitalization, doctor's office visits, and prevalence. Age-adjusted and age-specific rates are calculated. Estimates are provided for racial-, ethnic-, and gender-specific subpopulations. The burden of some diseases had decreased, especially renal infections. Most indices of the burden of diabetes with renal involvement and hypertensive renal disease have increased, especially among segments of the population that are growing. For many groups of disorders examined, men have experienced an increasing burden of disease over the 12 years evaluated. These data support current trends in renal failure and serve to generate hypotheses regarding renal disease patterns. The magnitude of the burden of renal disease and the trends toward increasing rates indicate that renal disease is a large and growing clinical and public health problem. Major improvements are needed in the range and accuracy of diagnosis and of reporting renal-related conditions, and additional resources need to be brought to the problem of renal-related morbidity. This is a US government work. There are no restrictions on its use.

Cardiorespiratory disease in men and women in urban Scotland: baseline characteristics of the Renfrew/Paisley (midspan) study population.

UNLABELLED: STUDY OBJECTIVE. To describe the distribution of risk factors, risk behaviors, symptoms and the prevalence of cardiorespiratory disease in men and women in an urban area with high levels of socioeconomic deprivation. A cross-sectional survey of 15,411 men and women aged 45-64, comprising an 80% response rate from the general population in Paisley and Renfrew, Scotland. MAIN RESULTS: The main characteristics of the male Renfrew/Paisley population, compared to previous British studies, were shorter stature, higher blood pressure, a higher proportion of smokers who continue to smoke, lower FEV1 and higher levels of reported angina, breathlessness on effort and chronic bronchitis. In comparison with men, the main characteristics of the female Renfrew/Paisley population were shorter stature, higher plasma cholesterol, lower FEV1, fewer current and ex-smokers, and a higher prevalence of breathlessness on effort. There were only small differences between men and women in the prevalence of angina, ECG evidence of myocardial ischaemia and chronic bronchitis. CONCLUSIONS: Middle-aged men and women in an urban area with high levels of socio-economic deprivation have different cardio-respiratory risk and disease profiles compared to previous population in the UK, based on occupational groups and random national samples.

Risk factors for cardiorespiratory and all cause mortality in men and women in urban Scotland: 15 year follow up.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe the relationship between risk factors, risk behaviours, symptoms and mortality from cardiorespiratory diseases in an urban area with high levels of socioeconomic deprivation. A cohort study of 15,411 men and women aged 45-64, comprising 80% of the general population of Paisley and Renfrew, Scotland. OUTCOMES: Mortality after 15 years from coronary heart disease(ICD 410-4), stroke(ICD 430-8), respiratory disease(ICD 460-519) and all causes. MAIN RESULTS: Mortality rates from all causes were 19% in men aged 45-49, 31% in men aged 50-54, 42% in men aged 55-59 and 57% in men aged 60-64. The rates are considerably higher than those reported in previous UK prospective studies. For women the rates were 12%, 18%, 25% and 38% respectively. In general men and women showed similar relationships between risk factor levels and mortality rates. People in manual occupations had higher mortality rates. Raised levels of systolic and diastolic blood pressure were associated with increased coronary, stroke and all cause mortality rates. Plasma cholesterol had no such association with all cause mortality rates. High and low levels of body mass index were associated with higher mortality rates than intermediate levels. A relationship between short stature and increased mortality rates was observed in men and women. FEV1 expressed as a percentage of the expected value showed the strongest relationship with mortality rates, particularly for respiratory disease, but also for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke and all causes. CONCLUSIONS: A similar pattern of relationship between risk factor levels and mortality rates exists in men and women in Renfrew and Paisley. Respiratory impairment as measured by FEV1% predicted appears to be the most likely explanation of the observed high all cause mortality rates in this population.

Obesity as a risk factor for osteoarthritis of the hand and wrist: a prospective study.

The Tecumseh Community Health Study provides an opportunity to investigate the role of obesity in the etiology of osteoarthritis. This longitudinal study, conducted in Tecumseh, Michigan, began in 1962 with baseline examinations of clinical, biochemical, and radiologic characteristics. A 1985 reexamination of the cohort characterized osteoarthritis status in 1,276 participants, 588 males and 688 females, who were aged 50-74 years at this follow-up. Baseline obesity, as measured by an index of relative weight, was found to be significantly associated with the 23-year incidence of osteoarthritis of the hands among subjects disease free at baseline. Greater baseline relative weight was also associated with greater subsequent severity of osteoarthritis of the hands. The difference between baseline and follow-up weight values was not significantly associated with the incidence of osteoarthritis of the hands. Furthermore, there was no evidence that development of osteoarthritis subsequently led to increased incidence of obesity.

Incidence of and mortality from cancer in hypertensive patients.

OBJECTIVES: To assess incidence of and mortality from cancer in hypertensive patients taking atenolol, comparing the findings with two control populations and with hypertensive patients taking other drugs. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of patients first seen in the Glasgow Blood Pressure Clinic between 1972 and 1990. Patients' records were linked with the registrar general's data for information on mortality and with the West of Scotland Cancer Registry for information on incident and fatal cancers. Cancers were compared in patients and controls and in patients taking atenolol, beta blockers other than atenolol, and hypotensive drugs other than beta blockers. SUBJECTS: 6528 male and female patients providing 54,355 years of follow up. SETTING: Hypertension clinic in Glasgow. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Observed numbers of cancers in clinic patients were compared with expected numbers derived from cancer rates in two control populations adjusted for age, sex, and time period of data collection. RESULTS: Cancer mortality was not significantly different in clinic patients as a whole and controls. Incident and fatal cancers were not significantly increased in male or female patients taking atenolol. Cancer incidence did not rise in the clinic after a large increase in prescriptions for atenolol after 1976. CONCLUSION: This analysis does not suggest a link between atenolol and cancer.

Current methods of estimating severity for occupational injuries and illnesses: data from the 1986 Michigan Comprehensive Compensable Injury and Illness Database.

National and state estimates of the severity of occupational injuries and illnesses (severity = lost work time = missed work days+restricted work days) have come from the annual Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (Survey) produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, we show that the Survey practice of collecting injury information soon after the accident year reduces substantially the accuracy of missed work day estimates, which constitute 85.3% of the Survey lost work time estimate. To develop an independent estimate of missed work days, the research team created the Michigan Comprehensive Compensable Occupational Injury Database (Michigan Database) by linking state files with injury characteristics to files with workers' compensation information for injuries occurring in 1986. The measure of missed work time (days, weeks, or years) is the cumulative duration of compensation from the "date disability commenced," noted on the first payment form, through follow-up to March 1, 1990. Cumulative missed work time has been calculated or estimated for 72,057 injured workers, more than 97% of the 73,609 Michigan workers with compensable occupational injuries in 1986 identified through the close of the study. Our "best" estimate of missed work days, to follow-up, attributable to both fatal and nonfatal compensable occupational injuries and illnesses is 7,518,784, a figure four times that reported for Michigan by the Survey. When insurance industry data on disbursements are also considered, the estimate of missed work days increases to 8,919,079, a figure 4.75 times that reported by the Survey. When insurance data on reserves for future payments are also considered, the estimate of missed work days increases to 16,103,398, a figure 8.58-fold greater than that obtained for Michigan in the Survey. The Michigan data suggest that the national Survey may have failed to identify almost 373 million of 421 million missed work days in the private sector that have resulted, or will result, from 1986 occupational injuries. The present federal/state system for estimating occupational injury severity by measuring lost work days seriously underestimates the magnitude of the problem. The current policy of obtaining incidence and severity data from the same Survey should be reconsidered. We recommend that national estimates of injury severity be obtained from representative states by using state compensation data and that such estimates be used to evaluate current prevention and rehabilitation strategies. The redesigned occupational safety and health Survey (ROSH Survey) should be revised to permit linkage to compensation data.

Relation between coronary risk and coronary mortality in women of the Renfrew and Paisley survey: comparison with men.

Most epidemiological and intervention studies in patients with coronary artery disease have focused on men, the assumption being that such data can be extrapolated to women. However, there is little evidence to support this belief. We have completed a fifteen-year follow-up of 15,399 adults, including 8262 women, who lived in Renfrew and Paisley and were aged 45-64 years when screened between 1972 and 1976. We identified 490 deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) in women and 878 in men. Women were more likely to have high cholesterol, to be obese, and to come from lower social classes than men, but they smoked less and had similar blood pressures. The relative risk--top to bottom quintile (95% Cl)--of cholesterol for coronary death after adjustment for all other risk markers was slightly greater in women (1.77 [1.45,2.16]) than in men (1.56 [1.32, 1.85]), but absolute and attributable risk were lower. Thus, women in the top quintile for cholesterol had lower coronary mortality (6.1 deaths per thousand patient years) than men in the bottom quintile (6.8 deaths per thousand patient years). Moreover, it was estimated that there would have been only 103 (21%) fewer CHD deaths in women, yet 211 (24%) fewer in men, if mortality had been the same for women and men in the lowest quintiles of cholesterol. Trends showing similar relative risks in these women, but lower absolute and attributable risks than in men, were present for smoking, diastolic blood pressure, and social class. There was no relation between obesity and coronary death after adjustment for other risks. Our results suggest that some other factors protect women against CHD. The potential for women to reduce their risk of CHD by changes in lifestyle may be less than for men.

Geographic variation in the incidence of treated end-stage renal disease.

To facilitate identification of geographic clusters of areas with high or low incidence of treated end-stage renal disease, the 1983 to 1988 incidence by county was studied among whites and nonwhites less than 60 yr of age in the United States. End-stage renal disease incidence counts for 1983 to 1988 were obtained from the United States Renal Data System data base and linked to the 1985 county population obtained from U.S. Census data. Maps were smoothed by the method adopted by the National Cancer Institute that smooths only according to variability of the local rates, ignoring geographic information on clustering of events. In addition to identifying specific counties with exceptionally high or low incidence, geographic patterns were observed with many similarities across whites and nonwhites: notably high rates of disease in areas of the Southwest, the Southeast and in counties with Native American reservations and low rates in the West and Northwest. On the basis of these findings, several hypotheses are presented to explain the observed variation in treated end-stage renal disease incidence rates.

The juvenile-onset, adolescent-onset and adult-onset obese.

As shown in more than 8000 proband-parent pairs derived from a total-community sample and followed in longitudinal fashion, the 5-year incidence of obesity (new cases per 5-year period) approximates 8 percent for the juvenile-onset, adolescent-onset and adult-onset obese alike. Parents of juvenile-onset (ages 5-9), adolescent-onset (10-19) and adult-onset obese (20-39) tend to be of above-average fatness level, +0.25Z scores, overall, regardless of the age at onset of obesity in their progeny. Except for the parents of the juvenile-onset obese, educational level of the parents tends to be below average for the sample as a whole. These new data acquired in longitudinal context and explored in retrospective-prospective fashion do not substantiate the notion that different onset ages of obesity indicate separate etiologies and different family constellations.

Progression of osteoarthritis of the hand and metacarpal bone loss. A twenty-year followup of incident cases.

We examined the prospective relationship between metacarpal bone mass and osteoarthritis (OA) of the hand, using incidence data from the historical cohort in the Tecumseh Community Health Study (Tecumseh, MI). Women were examined for radiographic evidence of OA and for bone mass twice, 20-23 years apart (1962-1965 and 1985; 683 subjects with an age range of 55-74 in 1985). Two measures of OA were evaluated: the highest score assigned to any of the 32 wrist/hand joints, and the sum of scores for all wrist/hand joints. After adjustment for age, women who were classified as having OA (by either measure of OA) in 1985 were more likely to have more cortical area at baseline, which indicates greater bone mass. Women who developed OA in the 23-year period were more likely to experience a significantly greater widening of the medullary cavity over time, an indicator of increased bone resorption. Women with increasing levels of OA involvement also had an increased likelihood of greater cortical area loss. We conclude that women who later developed OA were more likely to have higher baseline bone mass than women who did not develop OA, but these women also had a greater likelihood of bone loss over time.

A comparison of survival among dialytic therapies of choice: in-center hemodialysis versus continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis at home.

Analyses were performed on a series of 2,754 dialysis patients between the ages of 20 and 60 years whose end-stage renal disease (ESRD) therapy started in Michigan from 1980 through 1987 with the selection of either center hemodialysis (CH) or continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD). The dialytic treatment at 6 months after first ESRD therapy was selected as the dialytic "treatment of choice" for each patient. Analyses of subsequent survival showed lower death rates for black patients than for white patients with hypertension (P less than 0.01) and diabetes (P less than 0.01). Death rates increased with patient age more dramatically among glomerulonephritis patients than among the other diagnostic groups (P less than 0.05). Females had significantly lower death rates than did males among diabetic patients (P less than 0.01). While no significant difference was found in average death rates between CH and CAPD (NS), there was a significant difference (P less than 0.05) in the trend in death rates. Death rates among CH patients increased significantly (P less than 0.001) during the study period, whereas death rates among CAPD patients have improved slightly (NS).