A descriptive analysis of the COVID-19 impacts on U.S. pork, turkey, and egg markets.

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV2 (COVID-19) severely disrupted the U.S. food supply chain. In its initial aftermath, and as we contemplate a potential reignition, the food supply chain industries, researchers, and policy makers search for evidence, causes, and consequences. This article uses publicly available data on the pork and egg industries and a survey of the turkey industry as a first step to document the impact of COVID-19. Researchers can learn from the experiences in industries where disruptions evolve differently in the face of simultaneous supply- and demand-side shocks and that stem from differences in structures of the supply chains. This early evidence is used to motivate future research needs and highlight opportunities for industry investments in resiliency strategies.

Predicting county-scale maize yields with publicly available data.

Maize (corn) is the dominant grain grown in the world. Total maize production in 2018 equaled 1.12 billion tons. Maize is used primarily as an animal feed in the production of eggs, dairy, pork and chicken. The US produces 32% of the world's maize followed by China at 22% and Brazil at 9% ( https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html#/app/home ). Accurate national-scale corn yield prediction critically impacts mercantile markets through providing essential information about expected production prior to harvest. Publicly available high-quality corn yield prediction can help address emergent information asymmetry problems and in doing so improve price efficiency in futures markets. We build a deep learning model to predict corn yields, specifically focusing on county-level prediction across 10 states of the Corn-Belt in the United States, and pre-harvest prediction with monthly updates from August. The results show promising predictive power relative to existing survey-based methods and set the foundation for a publicly available county yield prediction effort that complements existing public forecasts.

Economic impact of university veterinary diagnostic laboratories: A case study.

Veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) play a significant role in the prevention and mitigation of endemic animal diseases and serve an important role in surveillance of, and the response to, outbreaks of transboundary and emerging animal diseases. They also allow for business continuity in livestock operations and help improve human health. Despite these critical societal roles, there is no academic literature on the economic impact of VDLs. We present a case study on the economic impact of the Iowa State University Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory (ISUVDL). We use economic contribution analysis coupled with a stakeholder survey to estimate the impact. Results suggest that the ISUVDL is responsible for $2,162.46 million in direct output, $2,832.45 million in total output, $1,158.19 million in total value added, and $31.79 million in state taxes in normal years. In an animal health emergency this increases to $8,446.21 million in direct output, $11,063.06 million in total output, $4,523.70 million in total value added, and $124.15 million in state taxes. The ISUVDL receives $4 million annually as a direct state government appropriation for operating purposes. The $31.79 million in state taxes in normal years and the $124.15 million in state taxes in an animal health emergency equates to a 795% and 3104% return on investment, respectively. Estimates of the economic impact of the ISUVDL provide information to scientists, administrators, and policymakers regarding the efficacy and return on investment of VDLs.

Impact of Denmark's ban on antimicrobials for growth promotion.

Denmark was among the first countries to ban the use of antimicrobials for growth promotion (AGPs) in animal production through an on-going series of actions and regulations since 1995. In 2010 the Yellow Card scheme was adopted to decrease total antimicrobial consumption in pig production through additional restrictions on pig farmers. The withdrawal of AGPs and other restrictions have reduced total antimicrobial use, but at the same time therapeutic drug use has increased and resistance in key zoonotic bacteria has not decreased. Improved use of vaccines and management practices can help reduce losses especially for weaner pigs, but come with additional costs to producers.

Use of U.S. croplands for biofuels increases greenhouse gases through emissions from land-use change.

Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of the feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels. By using a worldwide agricultural model to estimate emissions from land-use change, we found that corn-based ethanol, instead of producing a 20% savings, nearly doubles greenhouse emissions over 30 years and increases greenhouse gases for 167 years. Biofuels from switchgrass, if grown on U.S. corn lands, increase emissions by 50%. This result raises concerns about large biofuel mandates and highlights the value of using waste products.

Public health consequences of macrolide use in food animals: a deterministic risk assessment.

The potential impact on human health from antibiotic-resistant bacteria selected by use of antibiotics in food animals has resulted in many reports and recommended actions. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Veterinary Medicine has issued Guidance Document 152, which advises veterinary drug sponsors of one potential process for conducting a qualitative risk assessment of drug use in food animals. Using this guideline, we developed a deterministic model to assess the risk from two macrolide antibiotics, tylosin and tilmicosin. The scope of modeling included all label claim uses of both macrolides in poultry, swine, and beef cattle. The Guidance Document was followed to define the hazard, which is illness (i) caused by foodborne bacteria with a resistance determinant, (ii) attributed to a specified animal-derived meat commodity, and (iii) treated with a human use drug of the same class. Risk was defined as the probability of this hazard combined with the consequence of treatment failure due to resistant Campylobacter spp. or Enterococcus faecium. A binomial event model was applied to estimate the annual risk for the U.S. general population. Parameters were derived from industry drug use surveys, scientific literature, medical guidelines, and government documents. This unique farm-to-patient risk assessment demonstrated that use of tylosin and tilmicosin in food animals presents a very low risk of human treatment failure, with an approximate annual probability of less than 1 in 10 million Campylobacter-derived and approximately 1 in 3 billion E. faecium-derived risk.