Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates.

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer possible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), the Mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Ma), the Last Interglacial (129-116 ka), the Mid-Holocene (6 ka), preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE), and the 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected climate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS), and the Community Climate System Model, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene climates, and by 2150 CE, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. Under RCP4.5, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are uncommon in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5, characterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence, RCP4.5 is roughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates, while unmitigated emission trajectories, such as RCP8.5, are similar to reversing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and the rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of evolutionary adaptive capacity.

Icebergs in the Nordic Seas Throughout the Late Pliocene.

The Arctic cryosphere is changing and making a significant contribution to sea level rise. The Late Pliocene had similar CO2 levels to the present and a warming comparable to model predictions for the end of this century. However, the state of the Arctic cryosphere during the Pliocene remains poorly constrained. For the first time we combine outputs from a climate model with a thermodynamic iceberg model to simulate likely source regions for ice-rafted debris (IRD) found in the Nordic Seas from Marine Isotope Stage M2 to the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period and what this implies about the nature of the Arctic cryosphere at this time. We compare the fraction of melt given by the model scenarios with IRD data from four Ocean Drilling Program sites in the Nordic Seas. Sites 911A, 909C, and 907A show a persistent occurrence of IRD that model results suggest is consistent with permanent ice on Svalbard. Our results indicate that icebergs sourced from the east coast of Greenland do not reach the Nordic Seas sites during the warm Late Pliocene but instead travel south into the North Atlantic. In conclusion, we suggest a continuous occurrence of marine-terminating glaciers on Svalbard and on East Greenland (due to the elevation of the East Greenland Mountains during the Late Pliocene). The study has highlighted the usefulness of coupled climate model-iceberg trajectory modeling for understanding ice sheet behavior when proximal geological records for Pliocene ice presence or absence are absent or are inconclusive.

Non-Fickian diffusion and the accumulation of methane bubbles in deep-water sediments.

In the absence of fractures, methane bubbles in deep-water sediments can be immovably trapped within a porous matrix by surface tension. The dominant mechanism of transfer of gas mass therefore becomes the diffusion of gas molecules through porewater. The accurate description of this process requires non-Fickian diffusion to be accounted for, including both thermal diffusion and gravitational action. We evaluate the diffusive flux of aqueous methane considering non-Fickian diffusion and predict the existence of extensive bubble mass accumulation zones within deep-water sediments. The limitation on the hydrate deposit capacity is revealed; too weak deposits cannot reach the base of the hydrate stability zone and form any bubbly horizon.

The past is a guide to the future? Comparing Middle Pliocene vegetation with predicted biome distributions for the twenty-first century.

During the Middle Pliocene, the Earth experienced greater global warmth compared with today, coupled with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. To determine the extent to which the Middle Pliocene can be used as a 'test bed' for future warming, we compare data and model-based Middle Pliocene vegetation with simulated global biome distributions for the mid- and late twenty-first century. The best agreement is found when a Middle Pliocene biome reconstruction is compared with a future scenario using 560 ppmv atmospheric CO2. In accordance with palaeobotanical data, all model simulations indicate a generally warmer and wetter climate, resulting in a northward shift of the taiga-tundra boundary and a spread of tropical savannah and woodland in Africa and Australia at the expense of deserts. Our data-model comparison reveals differences in the distribution of polar vegetation, which indicate that the high latitudes during the Middle Pliocene were still warmer than its predicted modern analogue by several degrees. However, our future scenarios do not consider multipliers associated with 'long-term' climate sensitivity. Changes in global temperature, and thus biome distributions, at higher atmospheric CO2 levels will not have reached an equilibrium state (as is the case for the Middle Pliocene) by the end of this century.

Time and temperature dependence of influenza virus membrane fusion at neutral pH.

The time course and temperature requirements for fusion of influenza virus membranes with liposomes at pH 7.5 were found to be consistent with the requirements for cell entry. At 37 degrees C, fusion was most rapid during the first 5 min and then continued more slowly up to at least 1 h. The amount of fusion increased semilogarithmically with increasing temperature up to 50 degrees C.

Ficoll and dextran enhance adhesion of Sendai virus to liposomes containing receptor (ganglioside GD1a).

Previous work has shown that high-speed centrifugation (300,000 g) of Sendai virus and liposomes in 40% (w/v) sucrose layered under a discontinuous sucrose gradient removes Sendai virus bound to liposomes containing the ganglioside GD1a, a Sendai virus receptor. Centrifugation also removes virus bound to liposomes containing other negatively charged lipids. This work shows that centrifugation of virus through a discontinuous ficoll gradient does not remove virus bound to liposomes containing GD1a but does remove virus from liposomes containing various other negatively charged lipids including the ganglioside GM1, which is not a Sendai virus receptor. The amount of virus that adheres to liposomes increases with increasing content of GD1a in the liposomes. The adhesion of virus to receptor-containing liposomes during centrifugation through a ficoll gradient results from the presence of ficoll and increases with increasing ficoll concentration. Virus also adheres to receptor-containing liposomes during centrifugation in the presence of dextran. These data indicate that caution should be used in interpreting associations demonstrated by centrifugation through dextran and ficoll gradients. They also indicate that binding of virus by ganglioside receptors can be modulated by carbohydrate polymers, which are thought not to have any specific interaction with either viruses or gangliosides.

Fusion of influenza virus membranes with liposomes at pH 7.5.

Influenza virus X-31 (H3N2) membranes fuse with liposomes containing ganglioside GD1a at pH 7.5. Fusion was demonstrated by electron microscopy and also can be measured by counting the labeled virus proteins incorporated into liposomes after bound virus has been removed. Liposomes composed of lipids that have no net charge behave as reported by other investigators and do not fuse with influenza X-31 membranes at neutral pH, but they do fuse at low pH. Therefore, the liposomal composition is a factor in whether liposomes fuse with influenza virus membranes at neutral pH, probably by determining whether binding occurs. The liposomal composition necessary for fusion at neutral pH needs to be individualized for each influenza subtype. To establish that a virus requires low pH for membrane fusion, it is first necessary to establish that fusion does not occur at neutral pH under conditions where adequate binding occurs.

Effect of lipid composition upon fusion of liposomes with Sendai virus membranes.

How the lipid composition of liposomes determines their ability to fuse with Sendai virus membranes was tested. Liposomes were made of compositions designed to test postulated mechanisms of membrane fusion that require specific lipids. Fusion does not require the presence of lipids that can form micelles such as gangliosides or lipids that can undergo lamellar to hexagonal phase transitions such as phosphatidylethanolamine (PE), nor is a phosphatidylinositol (PI) to phosphatidic acid (PA) conversion required, since fusion occurs with liposomes containing phosphatidylcholine (PC) and any one of many different negatively charged lipids such as gangliosides, phosphatidylserine (PS), phosphatidylglycerol, dicetyl phosphate, PI, or PA. A negatively charged lipid is required since fusion does not occur with neutral liposomes containing PC and a neutral lipid such as globoside, sphingomyelin, or PE. Fusion of Sendai virus membranes with liposomes that contain PC and PS does not require Ca2+, so an anhydrous complex with Ca2+ or a Ca2+-induced lateral phase separation is not required although the possibility remains that viral binding causes a lateral phase separation. Sendai virus membranes can fuse with liposomes containing only PS, so a packing defect between domains of two different lipids is not required. The concentration of PS required for fusion to occur is approximately 10-fold higher than that required for ganglioside GD1a, which has been shown to act as a Sendai virus receptor. When cholesterol is added as a third lipid to liposomes containing PC and GD1a, the amount of fusion decreases if the GD1a concentration is low.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Sendai virus membrane fusion: time course and effect of temperature, pH, calcium, and receptor concentration.

The conditions that optimize Sendai virus membrane fusion with liposomes have been studied. No fusion occurs in the absence of ganglioside receptors. Maximum fusion occurs when the molar ratio of ganglioside GD1a to phospholipid is 0.02 or greater. The amount of fusion at 37 degrees C increases with time up to at least 6.5 h. The rate of fusion increases from the lowest temperature tested, 10 degrees C, to 40 degrees C. Above 43 degrees C the amount of fusion decreases because of thermal inactivation of the viral proteins. There is a broad pH maximum between pH 7.5 and pH 9.0. At both ends of the pH range the amount of fusion increases and exceeds that found in the physiologic pH range. Neither ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid nor Ca2+ changes the amount of membrane fusion. The optimal conditions for membrane fusion of Sendai virus membranes with liposomes are the same as the optimal conditions for fusion with host cells and with red blood cells. Since the liposomes contain no proteins, the optimal conditions for Sendai virus membrane fusion must be determined by the viral proteins and be mostly independent of the nature or presence of the host proteins.

Initiation of fusion and disassembly of Sendai virus membranes into liposomes.

Sendai virus penetration into liposomes consists of two steps which are fusion of the viral and liposomal membranes and viral disassembly. Penetration can occur in less than one minute. The virus first causes a liposome to envelop it and then fuses with the leading edge of the developing vacuole. Viral disassembly does not follow immediately but requires release of virus-receptor binding and probably also requires changes in the association between viral proteins.

'Phagocytosis' of sendai virus by model membranes.

Sendai viruses were attached to liposomes (vesicular model membranes) at 0 to 4 degrees C, and were then incubated at 37 degrees C. Liposomes made of phosphatidylcholine, cholesterol and gangliosides enveloped the viruses at 37 degrees C to give a picture that resembles the ingestion step of phagocytosis. Virus particles were enveloped only by liposomes that contained gangliosides which serve as Sendai virus receptors.