Trends and drivers of anthropogenic NOx emissions in China since 2020.

Nitrogen oxides (NOx), significant contributors to air pollution and climate change, form aerosols and ozone in the atmosphere. Accurate, timely, and transparent information on NOx emissions is essential for decision-making to mitigate both haze and ozone pollution. However, a comprehensive understanding of the trends and drivers behind anthropogenic NOx emissions from China-the world's largest emitter-has been lacking since 2020 due to delays in emissions reporting. Here we show a consistent decline in China's NOx emissions from 2020 to 2022, despite increased fossil fuel consumption, utilizing satellite observations as constraints for NOx emission estimates through atmospheric inversion. This reduction is corroborated by data from two independent spaceborne instruments: the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Notably, a reduction in transport emissions, largely due to the COVID-19 lockdowns, slightly decreased China's NOx emissions in 2020. In subsequent years, 2021 and 2022, reductions in NOx emissions were driven by the industry and transport sectors, influenced by stringent air pollution controls. The satellite-based inversion system developed in this study represents a significant advancement in the real-time monitoring of regional air pollution emissions from space.

Cost-effectiveness uncertainty may bias the decision of coal power transitions in China.

A transition away from coal power always maintains a high level of complexity as there are several overlapping considerations such as technical feasibility, economic costs, and environmental and health impacts. Here, we explore the cost-effectiveness uncertainty brought by policy implementation disturbances of different coal power phaseout and new-built strategies (i.e., the disruption of phaseout priority) in China based on a developed unit-level uncertainty assessment framework. We reveal the opportunity and risk of coal transition decisions by employing preference analysis. We find that, the uncertainty of a policy implementation might lead to potential delays in yielding the initial positive annual net benefits. For example, a delay of six years might occur when implementing the prior phaseout practice. A certain level of risk remains in the implementation of the phaseout policy, as not all strategies can guarantee the cumulative positive net benefits from 2018-2060. Since the unit-level heterogeneities shape diverse orientation of the phaseout, the decision-making preferences would remarkably alter the selection of a coal power transition strategy. More strikingly, the cost-effectiveness uncertainty might lead to missed opportunities in identifying an optimal strategy. Our results highlight the importance of minimizing the policy implementation disturbance, which helps mitigate the risk of negative benefits and strengthen the practicality of phaseout decisions.

VOC and IVOC emission features and inventory of motorcycles in China.

How did the motorcycle emissions evolve during the economic development in China? To address data gaps, this study firstly measured the volatile organic compound (VOC) and intermediate-volatility organic compound (IVOC) emissions from motorcycles. The results confirmed that the emission control of motorcycles, especially small-displacement motorcycles, significantly lagged behind other gasoline-powered vehicles. For the China IV motorcycles, the average VOC and IVOC emission factors (EFs) were 2.74 and 7.78 times higher than the China V-VI light-duty gasoline vehicles, respectively. The notable high IVOC emissions were attributed to a dual influence from gasoline and lubricating oil. Furthermore, based on the complete EF dataset and economy-related activity data, a county-level emission inventory was developed in China. Motorcycle VOC and IVOC emissions changed from 2536.48 Gg and 197.19 Gg in 2006 to 594.21 Gg and 12.66 Gg in 2020, respectively. The absence of motorcycle IVOC emissions in the existed vehicular inventories led to an underestimation of up to 20%. Across the 15 years, the motorcycle VOC and IVOC emission hotspots were concentrated in the undeveloped regions, with the rural emissions reaching 5.81-10.14 times those of the urban emissions. This study provides the first-hand and close-to-realistic data to support motorcycle emission management and accurate air quality simulations.

Response of Harbin aerosol to latest clean air actions in China.

Cities in Northeast China, e.g., Harbin, were brought to the forefront of air pollution control by a national-level policy promulgated in 2021, i.e., the Circular on Further Promoting the Pollution Prevention and Control Battle (the FP3CB Circular) which aimed at eliminating heavy or severe air pollution events. In this study, we explored the response of Harbin aerosol to the FP3CB Circular, based on observational results from two campaigns conducted during 2020-2021 and 2021-2022. A clear decreasing trend was identified for the impact of domestic biomass burning between the two winters, presumably driven by the clean heating actions. The 2021-2022 winter was also characterized by reduced formation of secondary organic aerosol but enhanced production of nitrate, which could be attributed to the less humid conditions but higher temperatures, respectively, compared to the 2020-2021 winter. The overall effect of these changes was a decrease in the contribution of organic species to wintertime aerosol in Harbin. In addition, the number of heavy or severe pollution days rebounded in the 2021-2022 winter compared to 2020-2021 (5 vs. 3), indicating that the emissions of primary particles and gaseous precursors must be further reduced to achieve the ambitious goals of the FP3CB Circular.

Methane and nitrous oxide emissions from municipal wastewater treatment plants in China: A plant-level and technology-specific study.

Wastewater treatment is an important source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Yet large uncertainties remain in the quantification of GHG emissions from municipal wastewater treatment plants (MWWTPs) in China. A high-resolution and technology-specific emission inventory is still lacking to support mitigation strategies of MWWTPs. Here we develop a plant-level and technology-based MWWTP emission inventory for China covering 8703 plants and 19 treatment technology categories by compiling and harmonizing the most up-to-date facility-level databases. China's methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from MWWTPs in 2020 are estimated to be 150.6 Gg and 22.0 Gg, respectively, with the uncertainty range of -30% to 37% and -30% to 26% at 95% confidence interval. We find an emission inequality across cities, with the richest cities emitting two times more CH4 and N2O per capita from municipal wastewater treatment than the poorest cities. The emitted CH4 and N2O are dominated by Anaerobic/Anoxic/Oxic-, Sequencing Batch Reactor-, Oxidation Ditch-, and Anoxic/Oxic-based MWWTPs of less than 20 years old. Considering the relatively young age structure of China's MWWTPs, the committed emissions highlight the importance of reducing on-site GHG emissions by optimization of operating conditions and innovation management. The emission differences among our estimates, previous studies, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change guidelines are largely attributed to the uncertainties in emission factors, implying the urgent need for more plant-integrated measurements to improve the accuracy of emission accounting.

Advancing shipping NOx pollution estimation through a satellite-based approach.

Estimating shipping nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions and their associated ambient NO2 impacts is a complex and time-consuming task. In this study, a satellite-based ship pollution estimation model (SAT-SHIP) is developed to estimate regional shipping NOx emissions and their contribution to ambient NO2 concentrations in China. Unlike the traditional bottom-up approach, SAT-SHIP employs satellite observations with varying wind patterns to improve the top-down emission inversion methods for individual sectors amidst irregular emission plume signals. Through SAT-SHIP, shipping NOx emissions for 17 ports in China are estimated. The results show that SAT-SHIP performed comparably with the bottom-up approach, with an R2 value of 0.8. Additionally, SAT-SHIP reveals that the shipping sector in port areas contributes ∼21 and 11% to NO2 concentrations in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta areas of China, respectively, which is consistent with the results from chemical transportation model simulations. This approach has practical implications for policymakers seeking to identify pollution sources and develop effective strategies to mitigate air pollution.

Ultra-high-resolution mapping of ambient fine particulate matter to estimate human exposure in Beijing.

With the decreasing regional-transported levels, the health risk assessment derived from fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has become insufficient to reflect the contribution of local source heterogeneity to the exposure differences. Here, we combined the both ultra-high-resolution PM2.5 concentration with population distribution to provide the personal daily PM2.5 internal dose considering the indoor/outdoor exposure difference. A 30-m PM2.5 assimilating method was developed fusing multiple auxiliary predictors, achieving higher accuracy (R2 = 0.78-0.82) than the chemical transport model outputs without any post-simulation data-oriented enhancement (R2 = 0.31-0.64). Weekly difference was identified from hourly mobile signaling data in 30-m resolution population distribution. The population-weighted ambient PM2.5 concentrations range among districts but fail to reflect exposure differences. Derived from the indoor/outdoor ratio, the average indoor PM2.5 concentration was 26.5 µg/m3. The internal dose based on the assimilated indoor/outdoor PM2.5 concentration shows high exposure diversity among sub-groups, and the attributed mortality increased by 24.0% than the coarser unassimilated model.

Antagonism between ambient ozone increase and urbanization-oriented population migration on Chinese cardiopulmonary mortality.

Ever-increasing ambient ozone (O3) pollution in China has been exacerbating cardiopulmonary premature deaths. However, the urban-rural exposure inequity has seldom been explored. Here, we assess population-scale O3 exposure and mortality burdens between 1990 and 2019 based on integrated pollution tracking and epidemiological evidence. We find Chinese population have been suffering from climbing O3 exposure by 4.3 ± 2.8 ppb per decade as a result of rapid urbanization and growing prosperity of socioeconomic activities. Rural residents are broadly exposed to 9.8 ± 4.1 ppb higher ambient O3 than the adjacent urban citizens, and thus urbanization-oriented migration compromises the exposure-associated mortality on total population. Cardiopulmonary excess premature deaths attributable to long-term O3 exposure, 373,500 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 240,600-510,900) in 2019, is underestimated in previous studies due to ignorance of cardiovascular causes. Future O3 pollution policy should focus more on rural population who are facing an aggravating threat of mortality risks to ameliorate environmental health injustice.

[Synergistic Benefits of Pollution and Carbon Reduction from Air Pollution Control in Hebei Province from 2013 to 2020].

Recently, China has been facing the dual challenges of air pollution control and carbon emission reduction. Pollution and carbon reduction have become a breakthrough point for green socio-economic transformation. Air pollutant and CO2 emission inventories provide a tool for monitoring pollution and carbon reduction; however, there have been some problems in previous studies, including incomplete species coverage, different source classifications, and narrow time scales. Based on the unified emission source classification system and estimation method, an emission inventory was developed for Hebei Province from 2013 to 2020, and the emission trends, structure change, driving force, synergistic benefits, and spatial distribution were analyzed. Hebei Province achieved a balance during the study period in socio-economic development and anthropogenic emission control. SO2 emissions decreased rapidly during the "Ten Atmospheric Measures" period. VOCs and NH3 emissions reduction were more significant during the "Blue Sky Defense War" period. The decrease rates of NOx and PM2.5 emissions were relatively stable, and CO2 emissions increased slightly. The coal-fired treatment effectively reduced the air pollutant and CO2 emissions and strengthening the emission standards for key industries reduced SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions; however, the VOCs emission control requires improvement. Power and residential sources achieved co-reduction of air pollutants and CO2 and reducing residential coal optimized the energy structure, thereby leading to greater synergistic benefits in the residential source. The key pollution and carbon reduction areas in Hebei Province were Shijiazhuang, Tangshan, Handan, Baoding, and Langfang. The methods and conclusions in this study can provide technical and decision-making references for regional pollution and carbon reduction efforts.

Long-term spatiotemporal variations in surface NO2 for Beijing reconstructed from surface data and satellite retrievals.

Remote sensing data from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) play important roles in estimating surface nitrogen dioxide (NO2), but few studies have compared their differences for application in surface NO2 reconstruction. This study aims to explore the effectiveness of incorporating the tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) from OMI and TROPOMI (hereafter referred to as OMI and TROPOMI, respectively, for conciseness) for deriving surface NO2 and to apply the resulting data to revisit the spatiotemporal variations in surface NO2 for Beijing over the 2005-2020 period during which there were significant reductions in nitrogen oxide emissions. In the OMI versus TROPOMI performance comparison, the cross-validation R2 values were 0.73 and 0.72, respectively, at 1 km resolution and 0.69 for both at 100 m resolution. The comparisons between satellite data sources indicate that even though TROPOMI has a finer resolution it does not improve upon OMI for deriving surface NO2 at 1 km resolution, especially for analyzing long-term trends. In light of the comparison results, we used a hybrid approach based on machine learning to derive the spatiotemporal distribution of surface NO2 during 2005-2020 based on OMI. We had novel, independent passive sampling data collected weekly from July to September of 2008 for hindcasting validation and found a spatiotemporal R2 of 0.46 (RMSE = 7.0 ppb). Regarding the long-term trend of surface NO2, the level in 2008 was obviously lower than that in 2007 and 2009, as expected, which was attributed to pollution restrictions during the Olympic Games. The NO2 level started to steadily decline from 2015 and fell below 2008's level after 2017. Based on OMI, a long-term and fine-resolution surface NO2 dataset was developed for Beijing to support future environmental management questions and epidemiological research.

Considerable contribution of secondary aerosol to wintertime haze pollution in new target of the latest clean air actions in China.

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Northeast China was targeted by national-level clean air policy for the first time in 2022, with the release of Action Plan to eliminate heavy air pollution events. In this study, we investigated sources of PM2.5 during three successive winters in Harbin, a megacity in Northeast China, based on observational results from several recent campaigns in 2018-2021. During the 2020-2021 campaign, daytime and nighttime samples were collected in specific months in addition to 24-h integrated measurements, and the two sets of samples were combined in different ways to run a positive matrix factorization model. The source apportionment results suggested that the resolved secondary organic carbon (SOCPMF) had an uncertainty of ∼12%. Secondary aerosols were found to show the following features for the typical winters without agricultural fires. First, SOCPMF could be properly constrained by results from another widely-used approach for SOC estimation, the elemental carbon-tracer method. Second, secondary PM2.5 calculated using SOCPMF and secondary inorganic ions were generally in line with the independent estimations based on air quality data. Third, secondary components accounted for more than 50% of PM2.5 on average and contributed even more significantly during severe haze episodes, which were the focus of the latest Action Plan. This study also found that the wintertime PM2.5 decreased more slowly during 2017-2021 compared to 2013-2017, by ∼1 and 10 µg/m3 per year, respectively, for the metropolitan area where Harbin is located at. Our results highlighted the importance of secondary aerosols for further improving air quality in Northeast China, and for avoiding heavy pollution as required by the latest Action Plan.

Satellite reveals a steep decline in China's CO2 emissions in early 2022.

Response actions to the coronavirus disease 2019 perturbed economies and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The Omicron variant that emerged in 2022 caused more substantial infections than in 2020 and 2021 but it has not yet been ascertained whether Omicron interrupted the temporary post-2021 rebound of CO2 emissions. Here, using satellite nitrogen dioxide observations combined with atmospheric inversion, we show a larger decline in China's CO2 emissions between January and April 2022 than in those months during the first wave of 2020. China's CO2 emissions are estimated to have decreased by 15% (equivalent to -244.3 million metric tons of CO2) during the 2022 lockdown, greater than the 9% reduction during the 2020 lockdown. Omicron affected most of the populated and industrial provinces in 2022, hindering China's CO2 emissions rebound starting from 2021. China's emission variations agreed with downstream CO2 concentration changes, indicating a potential to monitor CO2 emissions by integrating satellite and ground measurements.

Drivers of Increasing Ozone during the Two Phases of Clean Air Actions in China 2013-2020.

In response to the severe air pollution issue, the Chinese government implemented two phases (Phase I, 2013-2017; Phase II, 2018-2020) of clean air actions since 2013, resulting in a significant decline in fine particles (PM2.5) during 2013-2020, while the warm-season (April-September) mean maximum daily 8 h average ozone (MDA8 O3) increased by 2.6 µg m-3 yr-1 in China during the same period. Here, we derived the drivers behind the rising O3 concentrations during the two phases of clean air actions by using a bottom-up emission inventory, a regional chemical transport model, and a multiple linear regression model. We found that both meteorological variations (3.6 µg m-3) and anthropogenic emissions (6.7 µg m-3) contributed to the growth of MDA8 O3 from 2013 to 2020, with the changes in anthropogenic emissions playing a more important role. The anthropogenic contributions to the O3 rise during 2017-2020 (1.2 µg m-3) were much lower than that in 2013-2017 (5.2 µg m-3). The lack of volatile organic compound (VOC) control and the decline in nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions were responsible for the O3 increase in 2013-2017 due to VOC-limited regimes in most urban areas, while the synergistic control of VOC and NOx in Phase II initially worked to mitigate O3 pollution during 2018-2020, although its effectiveness was offset by the penalty of PM2.5 decline. Future mitigation efforts should pay more attention to the simultaneous control of VOC and NOx to improve O3 air quality.

Synergetic roadmap of carbon neutrality and clean air for China.

It is well recognized that carbon dioxide and air pollutants share similar emission sources so that synergetic policies on climate change mitigation and air pollution control can lead to remarkable co-benefits on greenhouse gas reduction, air quality improvement, and improved health. In the context of carbon peak, carbon neutrality, and clean air policies, this perspective tracks and analyzes the process of the synergetic governance of air pollution and climate change in China by developing and monitoring 18 indicators. The 18 indicators cover the following five aspects: air pollution and associated weather-climate conditions, progress in structural transition, sources, inks, and mitigation pathway of atmospheric composition, health impacts and benefits of coordinated control, and synergetic governance system and practices. By tracking the progress in each indicator, this perspective presents the major accomplishment of coordinated control, identifies the emerging challenges toward the synergetic governance, and provides policy recommendations for designing a synergetic roadmap of Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air for China.

Agricultural fire impacts on brown carbon during different seasons in Northeast China.

Brown carbon (BrC) represents not only a major component of haze pollution but also a non-negligible contributor to positive radiative forcing, making it a key species for coordinating air quality and climate policies. In China, field observations on BrC remain limited given the highly variable emission sources and meteorological conditions across different regions. Here we focused on the optical properties of BrC in a distinct but rarely studied megacity in Northeast China, which is within a major agricultural region and experiences extremely cold winter. Agricultural fires were evident in April of 2021 and the fall of 2020, although open burning was strictly prohibited. Such emissions enhanced BrC's mass absorption efficiency at 365 nm (MAE365), more efficiently by the fall fires which were inferred to have relatively high combustion efficiencies (CE). After taking CE into consideration, the relationships between MAE365 and the levoglucosan to organic carbon ratio (a measure of the significance of agricultural fire influence) roughly converged for the fire episodes in different seasons, including those identified in February and March of 2019 by a previous campaign. Agricultural fires also influenced the determination of absorption Ångström exponent (AAE), by resulting in non-linearity for BrC's absorption spectra shown on ln-ln scale. Based on three indicators developed by this study, the non-linearity was inferred to be caused by similar chromophores although the fires were characterized by various CE levels in different seasons. In addition, for the samples without significant influence of open burning, coal combustion emissions were identified as the dominant influencing factor for MAE365, whereas none solid link was found between the solution-based AAE and aerosol source.

Air pollution health burden embodied in China's supply chains.

Product trade plays an increasing role in relocating production and the associated air pollution impact among sectors and regions. While a comprehensive depiction of atmospheric pollution redistribution through trade chains is missing, which may hinder targeted clean air cooperation among sectors and regions. Here, we combined five state-of-the-art models from physics, economy, and epidemiology to track the anthropogenic fine particle matters (PM2.5) related premature mortality along the supply chains within China in 2017. Our results highlight the key sectors that affect PM2.5-related mortality from both production and consumption perspectives. The consumption-based effects from food, light industry, equipment, construction, and services sectors, caused 2-22 times higher deaths than those from a production perspective and totally contributed 63% of the national total. From a cross-boundary perspective, 25.7% of China's PM2.5-related deaths were caused by interprovincial trade, with the largest transfer occurring from the central and northern regions to well-developed east coast provinces. Capital investment dominated the cross-boundary effect (56% of the total) by involving substantial equipment and construction products, which greatly rely on product exports from regions with specific resources. This supply chain-based analysis provides a comprehensive quantification and may inform more effective joint-control efforts among associated regions and sectors from a health risk perspective.

Updating emission inventories for vehicular organic gases: Indications from cold-start and temperature effects on advanced technology cars.

How would the organic gas emission inventories of future urban vehicles change with new features of advanced technology cars? Here, volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and intermediate volatile organic compounds (IVOCs) from a fleet of Chinese light-duty gasoline vehicles (LDGVs) were characterized by chassis dynamometer experiments to grasp the key factors affecting future inventory accuracy. Subsequently, the VOC and IVOC emissions of LDGVs in Beijing, China, from 2020 to 2035, were calculated and the spatial-temporal variations were recognized under a scenario of fleet renewal. With the tightening of emission standards (ESs), cold start contributed a larger fraction of the total unified cycle VOC emissions due to the imbalanced emission reductions between operating conditions. It took 757.47 ± 337.75 km of hot running to equal one cold-start VOC emission for the latest certified vehicles. Therefore, the future tailpipe VOC emissions would be highly dependent on discrete cold start events rather than traffic flows. By contrast, the equivalent distance was shorter and more stable for IVOCs, with an average of 8.69 ± 4.59 km across the ESs, suggesting insufficient controls. Furthermore, there were log-linear relationships between temperatures and cold-start emissions, and the gasoline direct-injection vehicles performed better adaptability under low temperatures. In the updated emission inventories, the VOC emissions were more effectively reduced than the IVOC emissions. The start emissions of VOCs were estimated to be increasingly dominant, especially in wintertime. By winter 2035, the contribution of VOC start emissions could reach 98.98 % in Beijing, while the fraction of IVOC start emissions would decrease to 59.23 %. Spatially allocation showed that the high emission regions of tailpipe organic gases from LDGVs have transferred from road networks to regions of intense human activities. Our results provide new insights into tailpipe organic gas emissions of gasoline vehicles, and can support future emission inventories and refined assessment of air quality and human health risk.

Record-high CO2 emissions from boreal fires in 2021.

Extreme wildfires are becoming more common and increasingly affecting Earth's climate. Wildfires in boreal forests have attracted much less attention than those in tropical forests, although boreal forests are one of the most extensive biomes on Earth and are experiencing the fastest warming. We used a satellite-based atmospheric inversion system to monitor fire emissions in boreal forests. Wildfires are rapidly expanding into boreal forests with emerging warmer and drier fire seasons. Boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% of global fire carbon dioxide emissions, contributed 23% (0.48 billion metric tons of carbon) in 2021, by far the highest fraction since 2000. 2021 was an abnormal year because North American and Eurasian boreal forests synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit. Increasing numbers of extreme boreal fires and stronger climate-fire feedbacks challenge climate mitigation efforts.

Trade-driven changes in China's air pollutant emissions during 2012-2017.

Trade plays an important role in driving regional production and the associated pollutant emissions. Revealing the patterns and underlying driving forces of trade may be critical for informing future mitigation actions among regions and sectors. In this study, we focused on the "Clean Air Action" period from 2012 to 2017 and revealed the changes and driving forces in trade-related air pollutant emissions (including sulfur dioxide (SO2), particulate matter with a diameter equal to or less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compound (VOC), and carbon dioxide (CO2)) among regions and sectors in China. Our results showed that emissions embodied in domestic trade decreased considerably in absolute volume nationwide (23-61 %, except for VOC and CO2), but the relative contribution ratios from consumption in central and southwestern China increased (from 13 to 23 % to 15-25 % for various species), and those for eastern China decreased (from 39 to 45 % to 33-41 % for various species). From the sector perspective, trade-driven emissions from the power sector decreased in relative contribution ratios, while those from other sectors (including chemical, metal, nonmetal and services) were outstanding for specific regions, and became new targeted sectors when seeking mitigation through domestic supply chains. For changes in trade-related emissions, reduction in emission factor dominated the decreasing trends for almost all regions (27-64 % for the national total, except for VOC and CO2), and optimization in trade and/or energy structures also played marked reduction roles in specific regions, far offsetting the increasing effect of increasing trade volume (26-32 %, except for VOC and CO2). Our study provides a comprehensive picture of how trade-associated pollutant emissions changed during the "Clean Air Action" period, which may facilitate the formulation of more effective trade-associated policies to mitigate future emissions.