[Trade-off and Synergy of Ecosystem Services in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Its Driving Factors].

Ecosystem services (ESs) and their changes are complex processes driven by multiple factors. Understanding the trade-off and synergy between ESs and their driving factors is essential for achieving effective management of ESs and human well-being. Taking the Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research area, this study analyzed the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of four ESs including water yield, soil conservation, carbon sequestration, and food supply from 2000 to 2020. Correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression were used to identify and quantify the trade-off and synergy between ESs. On this basis, the partial least squares structural equation model was used to explore the impact of natural and human activities on ESs, and then the driving mechanism of ESs relationship change was analyzed via GeoDetector. The results showed that:① During the 20 years, the average annual carbon sequestration increased from 946.14 t·km-2 to 1 202.73 t·km-2, and the average food supply increased from 32.73×104 Yuan·km-2 to 127.22×104 Yuan·km-2. Water yield and soil conservation increased to a lesser degree. ② On the whole, carbon sequestration and soil conservation and food supply and water yield showed synergy, and other ESs were trade-offs. The relationship between ESs varied in different regions. ③ Terrain and climate were important driving factors for ESs and the trade-off and synergy of multiple ESs. Among them, structural equation model results showed that climate had a positive impact on water yield (S=0.73), and terrain had a negative impact on food supply (S=-0.57). GeoDetector results revealed that the main driving factors affecting the spatial relationship between carbon sequestration and water yield were elevation (q=0.38) and precipitation (q=0.19). The results of this study can provide a scientific reference for the sustainable management of ESs in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the realization of the coordinated development of ecological environment protection and social economy in the region.