A stacking ensemble machine learning model to predict alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency-associated liver disease clinical outcomes based on UK Biobank data.

Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency associated liver disease (AATD-LD) is a rare genetic disorder and not well-recognized. Predicting the clinical outcomes of AATD-LD and defining patients more likely to progress to advanced liver disease are crucial for better understanding AATD-LD progression and promoting timely medical intervention. We aimed to develop a tailored machine learning (ML) model to predict the disease progression of AATD-LD. This analysis was conducted through a stacking ensemble learning model by combining five different ML algorithms with 58 predictor variables using nested five-fold cross-validation with repetitions based on the UK Biobank data. Performance of the model was assessed through prediction accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), and area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC). The importance of predictor contributions was evaluated through a feature importance permutation method. The proposed stacking ensemble ML model showed clinically meaningful accuracy and appeared superior to any single ML algorithms in the ensemble, e.g., the AUROC for AATD-LD was 68.1%, 75.9%, 91.2%, and 67.7% for all-cause mortality, liver-related death, liver transplant, and all-cause mortality or liver transplant, respectively. This work supports the use of ML to address the unanswered clinical questions with clinically meaningful accuracy using real-world data.

Large-scale sequencing identifies multiple genes and rare variants associated with Crohn's disease susceptibility.

Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified hundreds of loci associated with Crohn's disease (CD). However, as with all complex diseases, robust identification of the genes dysregulated by noncoding variants typically driving GWAS discoveries has been challenging. Here, to complement GWASs and better define actionable biological targets, we analyzed sequence data from more than 30,000 patients with CD and 80,000 population controls. We directly implicate ten genes in general onset CD for the first time to our knowledge via association to coding variation, four of which lie within established CD GWAS loci. In nine instances, a single coding variant is significantly associated, and in the tenth, ATG4C, we see additionally a significantly increased burden of very rare coding variants in CD cases. In addition to reiterating the central role of innate and adaptive immune cells as well as autophagy in CD pathogenesis, these newly associated genes highlight the emerging role of mesenchymal cells in the development and maintenance of intestinal inflammation.

Clinical Features and Genetic Risk of Demyelination Following Anti-TNF Treatment.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNF exposure has been linked to demyelination events. We sought to describe the clinical features of demyelination events following anti-TNF treatment and to test whether affected patients were genetically predisposed to multiple sclerosis [MS]. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study to describe the clinical features of demyelination events following anti-TNF exposure. We compared genetic risk scores [GRS], calculated using carriage of 43 susceptibility loci for MS, in 48 cases with 1219 patients exposed to anti-TNF who did not develop demyelination. RESULTS: Overall, 39 [74%] cases were female. The median age [range] of patients at time of demyelination was 41.5 years [20.7-63.2]. The median duration of anti-TNF treatment was 21.3 months [0.5-99.4] and 19 [36%] patients were receiving concomitant immunomodulators. Most patients had central demyelination affecting the brain, spinal cord, or both. Complete recovery was reported in 12 [23%] patients after a median time of 6.8 months [0.1-28.7]. After 33.0 months of follow-up, partial recovery was observed in 29 [55%] patients, relapsing and remitting episodes in nine [17%], progressive symptoms in three [6%]: two [4%] patients were diagnosed with MS. There was no significant difference between MS GRS scores in cases (mean -3.5 × 10-4, standard deviation [SD] 0.0039) and controls [mean -1.1 × 10-3, SD 0.0042] [p = 0.23]. CONCLUSIONS: Patients who experienced demyelination events following anti-TNF exposure were more likely female, less frequently treated with an immunomodulator, and had a similar genetic risk to anti-TNF exposed controls who did not experience demyelination events. Large prospective studies with pre-treatment neuroimaging are required to identify genetic susceptibility loci.

HLA-DQA1*05 Carriage Associated With Development of Anti-Drug Antibodies to Infliximab and Adalimumab in Patients With Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Anti-tumor necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapies are the most widely used biologic drugs for treating immune-mediated diseases, but repeated administration can induce the formation of anti-drug antibodies. The ability to identify patients at increased risk for development of anti-drug antibodies would facilitate selection of therapy and use of preventative strategies. METHODS: We performed a genome-wide association study to identify variants associated with time to development of anti-drug antibodies in a discovery cohort of 1240 biologic-naïve patients with Crohn's disease starting infliximab or adalimumab therapy. Immunogenicity was defined as an anti-drug antibody titer ≥10 AU/mL using a drug-tolerant enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Significant association signals were confirmed in a replication cohort of 178 patients with inflammatory bowel disease. RESULTS: The HLA-DQA1*05 allele, carried by approximately 40% of Europeans, significantly increased the rate of immunogenicity (hazard ratio [HR], 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.60-2.25; P = 5.88 × 10-13). The highest rates of immunogenicity, 92% at 1 year, were observed in patients treated with infliximab monotherapy who carried HLA-DQA1*05; conversely the lowest rates of immunogenicity, 10% at 1 year, were observed in patients treated with adalimumab combination therapy who did not carry HLA-DQA1*05. We confirmed this finding in the replication cohort (HR, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.35-2.98; P = 6.60 × 10-4). This association was consistent for patients treated with adalimumab (HR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.32-2.70) or infliximab (HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.57-2.33), and for patients treated with anti-TNF therapy alone (HR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.37-2.22) or in combination with an immunomodulator (HR, 2.01; 95% CI, 1.57-2.58). CONCLUSIONS: In an observational study, we found a genome-wide significant association between HLA-DQA1*05 and the development of antibodies against anti-TNF agents. A randomized controlled biomarker trial is required to determine whether pretreatment testing for HLA-DQA1*05 improves patient outcomes by helping physicians select anti-TNF and combination therapies. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03088449.

Predictors of anti-TNF treatment failure in anti-TNF-naive patients with active luminal Crohn's disease: a prospective, multicentre, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Anti-TNF drugs are effective treatments for the management of Crohn's disease but treatment failure is common. We aimed to identify clinical and pharmacokinetic factors that predict primary non-response at week 14 after starting treatment, non-remission at week 54, and adverse events leading to drug withdrawal. METHODS: The personalised anti-TNF therapy in Crohn's disease study (PANTS) is a prospective observational UK-wide study. We enrolled anti-TNF-naive patients (aged ≥6 years) with active luminal Crohn's disease at the time of first exposure to infliximab or adalimumab between March 7, 2013, and July 15, 2016. Patients were evaluated for 12 months or until drug withdrawal. Demographic data, smoking status, age at diagnosis, disease duration, location, and behaviour, previous medical and drug history, and previous Crohn's disease-related surgeries were recorded at baseline. At every visit, disease activity score, weight, therapy, and adverse events were recorded; drug and total anti-drug antibody concentrations were also measured. Treatment failure endpoints were primary non-response at week 14, non-remission at week 54, and adverse events leading to drug withdrawal. We used regression analyses to identify which factors were associated with treatment failure. FINDINGS: We enrolled 955 patients treated with infliximab (753 with originator; 202 with biosimilar) and 655 treated with adalimumab. Primary non-response occurred in 295 (23·8%, 95% CI 21·4-26·2) of 1241 patients who were assessable at week 14. Non-remission at week 54 occurred in 764 (63·1%, 60·3-65·8) of 1211 patients who were assessable, and adverse events curtailed treatment in 126 (7·8%, 6·6-9·2) of 1610 patients. In multivariable analysis, the only factor independently associated with primary non-response was low drug concentration at week 14 (infliximab: odds ratio 0·35 [95% CI 0·20-0·62], p=0·00038; adalimumab: 0·13 [0·06-0·28], p<0·0001); the optimal week 14 drug concentrations associated with remission at both week 14 and week 54 were 7 mg/L for infliximab and 12 mg/L for adalimumab. Continuing standard dosing regimens after primary non-response was rarely helpful; only 14 (12·4% [95% CI 6·9-19·9]) of 113 patients entered remission by week 54. Similarly, week 14 drug concentration was also independently associated with non-remission at week 54 (0·29 [0·16-0·52] for infliximab; 0·03 [0·01-0·12] for adalimumab; p<0·0001 for both). The proportion of patients who developed anti-drug antibodies (immunogenicity) was 62·8% (95% CI 59·0-66·3) for infliximab and 28·5% (24·0-32·7) for adalimumab. For both drugs, suboptimal week 14 drug concentrations predicted immunogenicity, and the development of anti-drug antibodies predicted subsequent low drug concentrations. Combination immunomodulator (thiopurine or methotrexate) therapy mitigated the risk of developing anti-drug antibodies (hazard ratio 0·39 [95% CI 0·32-0·46] for infliximab; 0·44 [0·31-0·64] for adalimumab; p<0·0001 for both). For infliximab, multivariable analysis of immunododulator use, and week 14 drug and anti-drug antibody concentrations showed an independent effect of immunomodulator use on week 54 non-remission (odds ratio 0·56 [95% CI 0·38-0·83], p=0·004). INTERPRETATION: Anti-TNF treatment failure is common and is predicted by low drug concentrations, mediated in part by immunogenicity. Clinical trials are required to investigate whether personalised induction regimens and treatment-to-target dose intensification improve outcomes. FUNDING: Guts UK, Crohn's and Colitis UK, Cure Crohn's Colitis, AbbVie, Merck Sharp and Dohme, Napp Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, and Celltrion.

Association of Genetic Variants in NUDT15 With Thiopurine-Induced Myelosuppression in Patients With Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Importance: Use of thiopurines may be limited by myelosuppression. TPMT pharmacogenetic testing identifies only 25% of at-risk patients of European ancestry. Among patients of East Asian ancestry, NUDT15 variants are associated with thiopurine-induced myelosuppression (TIM). Objective: To identify genetic variants associated with TIM among patients of European ancestry with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Design, Setting, and Participants: Case-control study of 491 patients affected by TIM and 679 thiopurine-tolerant unaffected patients who were recruited from 89 international sites between March 2012 and November 2015. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and exome-wide association studies (EWAS) were conducted in patients of European ancestry. The replication cohort comprised 73 patients affected by TIM and 840 thiopurine-tolerant unaffected patients. Exposures: Genetic variants associated with TIM. Main Outcomes and Measures: Thiopurine-induced myelosuppression, defined as a decline in absolute white blood cell count to 2.5 × 109/L or less or a decline in absolute neutrophil cell count to 1.0 × 109/L or less leading to a dose reduction or drug withdrawal. Results: Among 1077 patients (398 affected and 679 unaffected; median age at IBD diagnosis, 31.0 years [interquartile range, 21.2 to 44.1 years]; 540 [50%] women; 602 [56%] diagnosed as having Crohn disease), 919 (311 affected and 608 unaffected) were included in the GWAS analysis and 961 (328 affected and 633 unaffected) in the EWAS analysis. The GWAS analysis confirmed association of TPMT (chromosome 6, rs11969064) with TIM (30.5% [95/311] affected vs 16.4% [100/608] unaffected patients; odds ratio [OR], 2.3 [95% CI, 1.7 to 3.1], P = 5.2 × 10-9). The EWAS analysis demonstrated an association with an in-frame deletion in NUDT15 (chromosome 13, rs746071566) and TIM (5.8% [19/328] affected vs 0.2% [1/633] unaffected patients; OR, 38.2 [95% CI, 5.1 to 286.1], P = 1.3 × 10-8), which was replicated in a different cohort (2.7% [2/73] affected vs 0.2% [2/840] unaffected patients; OR, 11.8 [95% CI, 1.6 to 85.0], P = .03). Carriage of any of 3 coding NUDT15 variants was associated with an increased risk (OR, 27.3 [95% CI, 9.3 to 116.7], P = 1.1 × 10-7) of TIM, independent of TPMT genotype and thiopurine dose. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients of European ancestry with IBD, variants in NUDT15 were associated with increased risk of TIM. These findings suggest that NUDT15 genotyping may be considered prior to initiation of thiopurine therapy; however, further study including additional validation in independent cohorts is required.

A protein-truncating R179X variant in RNF186 confers protection against ulcerative colitis.

Protein-truncating variants protective against human disease provide in vivo validation of therapeutic targets. Here we used targeted sequencing to conduct a search for protein-truncating variants conferring protection against inflammatory bowel disease exploiting knowledge of common variants associated with the same disease. Through replication genotyping and imputation we found that a predicted protein-truncating variant (rs36095412, p.R179X, genotyped in 11,148 ulcerative colitis patients and 295,446 controls, MAF=up to 0.78%) in RNF186, a single-exon ring finger E3 ligase with strong colonic expression, protects against ulcerative colitis (overall P=6.89 × 10(-7), odds ratio=0.30). We further demonstrate that the truncated protein exhibits reduced expression and altered subcellular localization, suggesting the protective mechanism may reside in the loss of an interaction or function via mislocalization and/or loss of an essential transmembrane domain.

Clinical Features and HLA Association of 5-Aminosalicylate (5-ASA)-induced Nephrotoxicity in Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Nephrotoxicity is a rare idiosyncratic reaction to 5-aminosalicylate (5-ASA) therapies. The aims of this study were to describe the clinical features of this complication and identify clinically useful genetic markers so that these drugs can be avoided or so that monitoring can be intensified in high-risk patients. METHODS: Inflammatory bowel disease patients were recruited from 89 sites around the world. Inclusion criteria included normal renal function prior to commencing 5-ASA, ≥50% rise in creatinine any time after starting 5-ASA, and physician opinion implicating 5-ASA strong enough to justify drug withdrawal. An adjudication panel identified definite and probable cases from structured case report forms. A genome-wide association study was then undertaken with these cases and 4109 disease controls. RESULTS: After adjudication, 151 cases of 5-ASA-induced nephrotoxicity were identified. Sixty-eight percent of cases were males, with nephrotoxicity occurring at a median age of 39.4 years (range 6-79 years). The median time for development of renal injury after commencing 5-ASA was 3.0 years (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.3-3.7). Only 30% of cases recovered completely after drug withdrawal, with 15 patients requiring permanent renal replacement therapy. A genome-wide association study identified a suggestive association in the HLA region (p = 1×10(-7)) with 5-ASA-induced nephrotoxicity. A sub-group analysis of patients who had a renal biopsy demonstrating interstitial nephritis (n = 55) significantly strengthened this association (p = 4×10(-9), odds ratio 3.1). CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest and most detailed study of 5-ASA-induced nephrotoxicity to date. It highlights the morbidity associated with this condition and identifies for the first time a significant genetic predisposition to drug-induced renal injury.

The immunogenicity of biosimilar infliximab: can we extrapolate the data across indications?

Biopharmaceuticals or 'biologics' have revolutionized the treatment of many diseases. However, some patients generate an immune response to such drugs, potentially limiting clinical efficacy and safety. Infliximab (Remicade(®)) is a monoclonal antibody used to treat several immune-mediated inflammatory disorders. A biosimilar of infliximab, CT-P13 (Remsima(®), Inflectra(®)), has recently been approved in Europe for all indications in which infliximab is approved. Approval of CT-P13 was based in part on extrapolation of clinical trial data from two indications (rheumatoid arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis) to all other indications, including inflammatory bowel disease. This review discusses the validity of extrapolating immunogenicity data across indications - a process adopted by the EMA as part of their biosimilar approval process - with a focus on CT-P13.

HLA-DQA1-HLA-DRB1 variants confer susceptibility to pancreatitis induced by thiopurine immunosuppressants.

Pancreatitis occurs in approximately 4% of patients treated with the thiopurines azathioprine or mercaptopurine. Its development is unpredictable and almost always leads to drug withdrawal. We identified patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) who had developed pancreatitis within 3 months of starting these drugs from 168 sites around the world. After detailed case adjudication, we performed a genome-wide association study on 172 cases and 2,035 controls with IBD. We identified strong evidence of association within the class II HLA region, with the most significant association identified at rs2647087 (odds ratio 2.59, 95% confidence interval 2.07-3.26, P = 2 × 10(-16)). We replicated these findings in an independent set of 78 cases and 472 controls with IBD matched for drug exposure. Fine mapping of the HLA region identified association with the HLA-DQA1*02:01-HLA-DRB1*07:01 haplotype. Patients heterozygous at rs2647087 have a 9% risk of developing pancreatitis after administration of a thiopurine, whereas homozygotes have a 17% risk.

Dense genotyping identifies and localizes multiple common and rare variant association signals in celiac disease.

Using variants from the 1000 Genomes Project pilot European CEU dataset and data from additional resequencing studies, we densely genotyped 183 non-HLA risk loci previously associated with immune-mediated diseases in 12,041 individuals with celiac disease (cases) and 12,228 controls. We identified 13 new celiac disease risk loci reaching genome-wide significance, bringing the number of known loci (including the HLA locus) to 40. We found multiple independent association signals at over one-third of these loci, a finding that is attributable to a combination of common, low-frequency and rare genetic variants. Compared to previously available data such as those from HapMap3, our dense genotyping in a large sample collection provided a higher resolution of the pattern of linkage disequilibrium and suggested localization of many signals to finer scale regions. In particular, 29 of the 54 fine-mapped signals seemed to be localized to single genes and, in some instances, to gene regulatory elements. Altogether, we define the complex genetic architecture of the risk regions of and refine the risk signals for celiac disease, providing the next step toward uncovering the causal mechanisms of the disease.

Comparative methylomics reveals gene-body H3K36me3 in Drosophila predicts DNA methylation and CpG landscapes in other invertebrates.

In invertebrates that harbor functional DNA methylation enzymatic machinery, gene-bodies are the primary targets for CpG methylation. However, virtually all other aspects of invertebrate DNA methylation have remained a mystery until now. Here, using a comparative methylomics approach, we demonstrate that Nematostella vectensis, Ciona intestinalis, Apis mellifera, and Bombyx mori show two distinct populations of genes differentiated by gene-body CpG density. Genome-scale DNA methylation profiles for A. mellifera spermatozoa reveal CpG-poor genes are methylated in the germline, as predicted by the depletion of CpGs. We find an evolutionarily conserved distinction between CpG-poor and GpC-rich genes: The former are associated with basic biological processes, the latter with more specialized functions. This distinction is strikingly similar to that recently observed between euchromatin-associated genes in Drosophila that contain intragenic histone 3 lysine 36 trimethylation (H3K36me3) and those that do not, even though Drosophila does not display CpG density bimodality or methylation. We confirm that a significant number of CpG-poor genes in N. vectensis, C. intestinalis, A. mellifera, and B. mori are orthologs of H3K36me3-rich genes in Drosophila. We propose that over evolutionary time, gene-body H3K36me3 has influenced gene-body DNA methylation levels and, consequently, the gene-body CpG density bimodality characteristic of invertebrates that harbor CpG methylation.

Multiple common variants for celiac disease influencing immune gene expression.

We performed a second-generation genome-wide association study of 4,533 individuals with celiac disease (cases) and 10,750 control subjects. We genotyped 113 selected SNPs with P(GWAS) < 10(-4) and 18 SNPs from 14 known loci in a further 4,918 cases and 5,684 controls. Variants from 13 new regions reached genome-wide significance (P(combined) < 5 x 10(-8)); most contain genes with immune functions (BACH2, CCR4, CD80, CIITA-SOCS1-CLEC16A, ICOSLG and ZMIZ1), with ETS1, RUNX3, THEMIS and TNFRSF14 having key roles in thymic T-cell selection. There was evidence to suggest associations for a further 13 regions. In an expression quantitative trait meta-analysis of 1,469 whole blood samples, 20 of 38 (52.6%) tested loci had celiac risk variants correlated (P < 0.0028, FDR 5%) with cis gene expression.

Genome-wide analysis of allelic expression imbalance in human primary cells by high-throughput transcriptome resequencing.

Many disease-associated variants identified by genome-wide association (GWA) studies are expected to regulate gene expression. Allele-specific expression (ASE) quantifies transcription from both haplotypes using individuals heterozygous at tested SNPs. We performed deep human transcriptome-wide resequencing (RNA-seq) for ASE analysis and expression quantitative trait locus discovery. We resequenced double poly(A)-selected RNA from primary CD4(+) T cells (n = 4 individuals, both activated and untreated conditions) and developed tools for paired-end RNA-seq alignment and ASE analysis. We generated an average of 20 million uniquely mapping 45 base reads per sample. We obtained sufficient read depth to test 1371 unique transcripts for ASE. Multiple biases inflate the false discovery rate which we estimate to be approximately 50% for random SNPs. However, after controlling for these biases and considering the subset of SNPs that pass HapMap QC, 4.6% of heterozygous SNP-sample pairs show evidence of imbalance (P < 0.001). We validated four findings by both bacterial cloning and Sanger sequencing assays. We also found convincing evidence for allelic imbalance at multiple reporter exonic SNPs in CD6 for two samples heterozygous at the multiple sclerosis-associated variant rs17824933, linking GWA findings with variation in gene expression. Finally, we show in CD4(+) T cells from a further individual that high-throughput sequencing of genomic DNA and RNA-seq following enrichment for targeted gene sequences by sequence capture methods offers an unbiased means to increase the read depth for transcripts of interest, and therefore a method to investigate the regulatory role of many disease-associated genetic variants.

Genetics and pathogenesis of coeliac disease.

Coeliac disease is a common complex disease caused by a dietary intolerance to wheat gluten. Susceptibility is determined by both environmental and genetic factors. Coeliac disease results from complex interactions between the innate immune system, an adaptive T and B cell response and the mucosal barrier where inflammation is ultimately manifested. Genetic variants within the HLA region are well established, while variants outside of the HLA region have recently been identified. These variants are beginning to enhance our understanding of the immunology of the condition. This review focuses on the immunological pathogenesis of coeliac disease with special reference to the influence of genetic susceptibility on disease development.

The genetics of chronic inflammatory diseases.

Chronic inflammatory diseases have been at the forefront of the new genome-wide association study era. Conditions such as coeliac disease, type 1 diabetes, Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis have all benefited with multiple loci identified and replicated for each condition. As cohort sample numbers increase and researchers collaborate and share cohorts, common susceptibility loci are beginning to emerge between several diseases. Crohn's disease and coeliac disease both demonstrate considerable overlap in their common genetic susceptibility with other related conditions. These shared loci offer an insight into the biology of the conditions but still present researchers with the problem of attempting to identify the true causal variants.

Complex nature of SNP genotype effects on gene expression in primary human leucocytes.

BACKGROUND: Genome wide association studies have been hugely successful in identifying disease risk variants, yet most variants do not lead to coding changes and how variants influence biological function is usually unknown. METHODS: We correlated gene expression and genetic variation in untouched primary leucocytes (n = 110) from individuals with celiac disease - a common condition with multiple risk variants identified. We compared our observations with an EBV-transformed HapMap B cell line dataset (n = 90), and performed a meta-analysis to increase power to detect non-tissue specific effects. RESULTS: In celiac peripheral blood, 2,315 SNP variants influenced gene expression at 765 different transcripts (< 250 kb from SNP, at FDR = 0.05, cis expression quantitative trait loci, eQTLs). 135 of the detected SNP-probe effects (reflecting 51 unique probes) were also detected in a HapMap B cell line published dataset, all with effects in the same allelic direction. Overall gene expression differences within the two datasets predominantly explain the limited overlap in observed cis-eQTLs. Celiac associated risk variants from two regions, containing genes IL18RAP and CCR3, showed significant cis genotype-expression correlations in the peripheral blood but not in the B cell line datasets. We identified 14 genes where a SNP affected the expression of different probes within the same gene, but in opposite allelic directions. By incorporating genetic variation in co-expression analyses, functional relationships between genes can be more significantly detected. CONCLUSION: In conclusion, the complex nature of genotypic effects in human populations makes the use of a relevant tissue, large datasets, and analysis of different exons essential to enable the identification of the function for many genetic risk variants in common diseases.