Life Cycle Assessment of Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower in the United States.

The United States has begun unprecedented efforts to decarbonize all sectors of the economy by 2050, requiring rapid deployment of variable renewable energy technologies and grid-scale energy storage. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) is an established technology capable of providing grid-scale energy storage and grid resilience. There is limited information about the life cycle of greenhouse gas emissions associated with state-of-the-industry PSH technologies. The objective of this study is to perform a full life cycle assessment of new closed-loop PSH in the United States and assess the global warming potential (GWP) attributed to 1 kWh of stored electricity delivered to the nearest grid substation connection point. For this study, we use publicly available data from PSH facilities that are in the preliminary permitting phase. The modeling boundary is from facility construction to decommissioning. Our results estimate that the GWP of closed-loop PSH in the United States ranges from 58 to 530 g CO2e kWh-1, with the stored electricity grid mix having the largest impact, followed by concrete used in facility construction. Additionally, PSH site characteristics can have a substantive impact on GWP, with brownfield sites resulting in a 20% lower GWP compared to greenfield sites. Our results suggest that closed-loop PSH offers climate benefits over other energy storage technologies.

Emission factors of industrial boilers burning biomass-derived fuels.

Boilers are combustion devices that provide process heat and are integral to many industrial facilities. Historically, outside of the pulp and paper industry, most boilers burned fossil fuels, although interest in decarbonization has been leading to an increased use of renewable fuels in boilers. These boilers, including those in the biorefineries, are often large sources of air pollutant emissions, and the characterization of these emissions is critical to obtaining air permits and ensuring protection of the surrounding air quality. Several industrial boilers and new biorefineries allow utilization of biomass-derived fuels (e.g. wastewater sludge, lignin, etc.) produced during their operation as a fuel for the boiler to meet process energy needs. However, there is limited empirical data on emission factors for the burning of unconventional fuels, such as solid-gas mixtures containing biomass residues. To fill this gap, we carry out a comprehensive data survey, collecting information on emission factors for boilers burning either a single or a mixture of solid and gaseous biomass-derived fuels. We review multiple hard-to-obtain and unconventional data sources, such as air permit applications, stack test data, and industry-sponsored data collection efforts, to compile emission factors for biomass-derived fuels. We then compare this data with wood residue emission factors from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's AP-42 emission factor database. Our results indicate that the emission factors for boilers burning unconventional fuels vary widely depending on the fuel composition, boiler type, and fuel characteristics. Overall, we find that median emission factors of selected biomass-derived fuels are typically lower than those of wood residue boilers in AP-42. The information collected herein could be useful to permitting agencies and industries utilizing boilers who may want to reduce the carbon impact of their facilities by combusting biomass-derived wastes for process energy needs, for more accurate emission estimation for permitting.Implications: Emission factors are often used for air permitting, specifically for emission estimation purposes. This study carries out a comprehensive data survey of emission factors burning unconventional biomass-derived fuels from underutilized sources such as air permits, stack test data, and industry-led efforts, and compare the results to EPA's wood residue emission factor database. The results from this study can be used can be used by multiple stakeholders such as air permitting agencies, industries burning biomass-derived fuels, and biorefineries, that utilize more advanced boiler technologies. The findings can help mitigate risks to industry owners and operators and helps to avoid delays in obtaining the required air permits that arise due to inappropriate emission estimates in permit applications.

Regional representation of wind stakeholders' end-of-life behaviors and their impact on wind blade circularity.

The growing number of end-of-life (EOL) wind blades could further strain US landfills or be a valuable composite materials source, depending on stakeholders' behaviors. Technical solutions based on circular economy (CE) principles have been proposed but are not guaranteed to solve the issue of EOL management. Transitioning to CE implies changing how business models, supply chains, and behaviors deal with products and waste. A spatially resolved agent-based modeling combined with a machine-learning metamodel shows that including behavioral factors is crucial to designing effective policies. Logistical barriers and transportation costs significantly affect the results: lowering blade shredding costs by a third before transportation makes EOL blades a source of valuable materials, decreasing the 2050 cumulative landfill rate below 50%. In another scenario, parameter settings simulating policy interventions aiming at boosting early adoption incites new social norms favorable to recycling, lowering the cumulative landfill rate below 10%.

A critical review of the circular economy for lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaic modules - status, challenges, and opportunities.

To meet net-zero emissions and cost targets for power production, recent analysis indicates that photovoltaic (PV) capacity in the United States could exceed 1 TW by 2050 alongside comparable levels of energy storage capacity, mostly from batteries. For comparison, the total U.S. utility-scale power capacity from all energy sources in 2020 was 1.2 TW, of which solar satisfied approximately 3%. With such massive scales of deployment, questions have arisen regarding issues of material supply for manufacturing, end-of-life management of technologies, environmental impacts across the life cycle, and economic costs to both individual consumers and society at large. A set of solutions to address these issues center on the development of a circular economy - shifting from a take-make-waste linear economic model to one that retains the value of materials and products as long as possible, recovering materials at end of life to recirculate back into the economy. With limited global experience, scholars and practitioners have begun to investigate circular economy pathways, focusing on applying novel technologies and analytical methods to fast-growing sectors like renewable energy. This critical review aims to synthesize the growing literature to identify key insights, gaps, and opportunities for research and implementation of a circular economy for two of the leading technologies that enable the transition to a renewable energy economy: solar PV and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). We apply state-of-the-science systematic literature review procedures to critically analyze over 3,000 publications on the circular economy of solar PV and LIBs, categorizing those that pass a series of objective screens in ways that can illuminate the current state of the art, highlight existing impediments to a circular economy, and recommend future technological and analytical research. We conclude that while neither PV nor LIB industries have reached a circular economy, they are both on a path towards increased circularity. Based on our assessment of the state of current literature and scientific understanding, we recommend research move beyond its prior emphasis on recycling technology development to more comprehensively investigate other CE strategies, more holistically consider economic, environmental and policy aspects of CE strategies, increase leveraging of digital information systems that can support acceleration towards a CE, and to continue to study CE-related aspects of LIB and PV markets.

Characterization factors and other air quality impact metrics: Case study for PM2.5-emitting area sources from biofuel feedstock supply.

In this paper, we develop a framework and metrics for estimating the impact of emission sources on regulatory compliance and human health for applications in air quality planning and life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Our framework is based on a pollutant's characterization factor (CF) and three new metrics: Available Regulatory Capacity for Incremental Emissions (ARCIE), Source CF Ratio, and Activity Health Impact (AHI) Ratio. ARCIE can be used to assess whether a receptor location has capacity to accommodate additional source emissions while complying with regulatory limits. We present CF as a midpoint indicator of health impacts per unit mass of emitted pollutant. Source CF Ratio enables comparison of potential new-source locations based on human health impacts. The AHI Ratio estimates the health impacts of a pollutant in relation to the utilization of the source for each unit of product or service. These metrics can be applied to any pollutant, energy source sector (e.g., agriculture, electricity), source type (point, line, area), and spatial modeling domain (nation, state, city, region). We demonstrate these metrics through a case study of fine particulate (PM2.5) emissions from U.S. corn stover harvesting and local processing at various scales, representing steps in the biofuel production process. We model PM2.5 formation in the atmosphere using a novel reduced-complexity chemical transport model called the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). Through this case study, we present the first area-source PM2.5 CFs that address the recommendations of several LCIA studies to establish spatially explicit CFs specific to an energy source sector or type. Overall, the framework developed in this work provides multiple new ways to consider the potential impacts of air emissions through spatially differentiated metrics.

Closing the methane gap in US oil and natural gas production emissions inventories.

Methane (CH4) emissions from oil and natural gas (O&NG) systems are an important contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In the United States, recent synthesis studies of field measurements of CH4 emissions at different spatial scales are ~1.5-2× greater compared to official greenhouse gas inventory (GHGI) estimates, with the production-segment as the dominant contributor to this divergence. Based on an updated synthesis of measurements from component-level field studies, we develop a new inventory-based model for CH4 emissions, for the production-segment only, that agrees within error with recent syntheses of site-level field studies and allows for isolation of equipment-level contributions. We find that unintentional emissions from liquid storage tanks and other equipment leaks are the largest contributors to divergence with the GHGI. If our proposed method were adopted in the United States and other jurisdictions, inventory estimates could better guide CH4 mitigation policy priorities.

Temporal variability largely explains top-down/bottom-up difference in methane emission estimates from a natural gas production region.

This study spatially and temporally aligns top-down and bottom-up methane emission estimates for a natural gas production basin, using multiscale emission measurements and detailed activity data reporting. We show that episodic venting from manual liquid unloadings, which occur at a small fraction of natural gas well pads, drives a factor-of-two temporal variation in the basin-scale emission rate of a US dry shale gas play. The midafternoon peak emission rate aligns with the sampling time of all regional aircraft emission studies, which target well-mixed boundary layer conditions present in the afternoon. A mechanistic understanding of emission estimates derived from various methods is critical for unbiased emission verification and effective greenhouse gas emission mitigation. Our results demonstrate that direct comparison of emission estimates from methods covering widely different timescales can be misleading.

Potential Air Pollutant Emissions and Permitting Classifications for Two Biorefinery Process Designs in the United States.

Advanced biofuel production facilities (biorefineries), such as those envisioned by the United States (U.S.) Renewable Fuel Standard and U.S. Department of Energy's research and development programs, often lack historical air pollutant emissions data, which can pose challenges for obtaining air emission permits that are required for construction and operation. To help fill this knowledge gap, we perform a thorough regulatory analysis and use engineering process designs to assess the applicability of federal air regulations and quantify air pollutant emissions for two feasibility-level biorefinery designs. We find that without additional emission-control technologies both biorefineries would likely be required to obtain major source permits under the Clean Air Act's New Source Review program. The permitting classification (so-called "major" or "minor") has implications for the time and effort required for permitting and therefore affects the cost of capital and the fuel selling price. Consequently, we explore additional technically feasible emission-control technologies and process modifications that have the potential to reduce emissions to achieve a minor source permitting classification. Our analysis of air pollutant emissions and controls can assist biorefinery developers with the air permitting process and inform regulatory agencies about potential permitting pathways for novel biorefinery designs.

Methane Leaks from Natural Gas Systems Follow Extreme Distributions.

Future energy systems may rely on natural gas as a low-cost fuel to support variable renewable power. However, leaking natural gas causes climate damage because methane (CH4) has a high global warming potential. In this study, we use extreme-value theory to explore the distribution of natural gas leak sizes. By analyzing ∼15 000 measurements from 18 prior studies, we show that all available natural gas leakage data sets are statistically heavy-tailed, and that gas leaks are more extremely distributed than other natural and social phenomena. A unifying result is that the largest 5% of leaks typically contribute over 50% of the total leakage volume. While prior studies used log-normal model distributions, we show that log-normal functions poorly represent tail behavior. Our results suggest that published uncertainty ranges of CH4 emissions are too narrow, and that larger sample sizes are required in future studies to achieve targeted confidence intervals. Additionally, we find that cross-study aggregation of data sets to increase sample size is not recommended due to apparent deviation between sampled populations. Understanding the nature of leak distributions can improve emission estimates, better illustrate their uncertainty, allow prioritization of source categories, and improve sampling design. Also, these data can be used for more effective design of leak detection technologies.

Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.

Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.

Harmonization of initial estimates of shale gas life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for electric power generation.

Recent technological advances in the recovery of unconventional natural gas, particularly shale gas, have served to dramatically increase domestic production and reserve estimates for the United States and internationally. This trend has led to lowered prices and increased scrutiny on production practices. Questions have been raised as to how greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the life cycle of shale gas production and use compares with that of conventionally produced natural gas or other fuel sources such as coal. Recent literature has come to different conclusions on this point, largely due to differing assumptions, comparison baselines, and system boundaries. Through a meta-analytical procedure we call harmonization, we develop robust, analytically consistent, and updated comparisons of estimates of life cycle GHG emissions for electricity produced from shale gas, conventionally produced natural gas, and coal. On a per-unit electrical output basis, harmonization reveals that median estimates of GHG emissions from shale gas-generated electricity are similar to those for conventional natural gas, with both approximately half that of the central tendency of coal. Sensitivity analysis on the harmonized estimates indicates that assumptions regarding liquids unloading and estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of wells have the greatest influence on life cycle GHG emissions, whereby shale gas life cycle GHG emissions could approach the range of best-performing coal-fired generation under certain scenarios. Despite clarification of published estimates through harmonization, these initial assessments should be confirmed through methane emissions measurements at components and in the atmosphere and through better characterization of EUR and practices.

Thin-film photovoltaic power generation offers decreasing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing environmental co-benefits in the long term.

Thin-film photovoltaic (PV) technologies have improved significantly recently, and similar improvements are projected into the future, warranting reevaluation of the environmental implications of PV to update and inform policy decisions. By conducting a hybrid life cycle assessment using the most recent manufacturing data and technology roadmaps, we compare present and projected environmental, human health, and natural resource implications of electricity generated from two common thin-film PV technologies-copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) and cadmium telluride (CdTe)-in the United States (U.S.) to those of the current U.S. electricity mix. We evaluate how the impacts of thin films can be reduced by likely cost-reducing technological changes: (1) module efficiency increases, (2) module dematerialization, (3) changes in upstream energy and materials production, and (4) end-of-life recycling of balance of system (BOS). Results show comparable environmental and resource impacts for CdTe and CIGS. Compared to the U.S. electricity mix in 2010, both perform at least 90% better in 7 of 12 and at least 50% better in 3 of 12 impact categories, with comparable land use, and increased metal depletion unless BOS recycling is ensured. Technological changes, particularly efficiency increases, contribute to 35-80% reductions in all impacts by 2030.

Life cycle assessment of a power tower concentrating solar plant and the impacts of key design alternatives.

A hybrid life cycle assessment (LCA) is used to evaluate four sustainability metrics over the life cycle of a power tower concentrating solar power (CSP) facility: greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water consumption, cumulative energy demand (CED), and energy payback time (EPBT). The reference design is for a dry-cooled, 106 MW(net) power tower facility located near Tucson, AZ that uses a mixture of mined nitrate salts as the heat transfer fluid and storage medium, a two-tank thermal energy storage system designed for six hours of full load-equivalent storage, and receives auxiliary power from the local electric grid. A thermocline-based storage system, synthetically derived salts, and natural gas auxiliary power are evaluated as design alternatives. Over its life cycle, the reference plant is estimated to have GHG emissions of 37 g CO2eq/kWh, consume 1.4 L/kWh of water and 0.49 MJ/kWh of energy, and have an EPBT of 15 months. Using synthetic salts is estimated to increase GHG emissions by 12%, CED by 7%, and water consumption by 4% compared to mined salts. Natural gas auxiliary power results in greater than 10% decreases in GHG emissions, water consumption, and CED. The thermocline design is most advantageous when coupled with the use of synthetic salts.

Life cycle assessment of a parabolic trough concentrating solar power plant and the impacts of key design alternatives.

Climate change and water scarcity are important issues for today's power sector. To inform capacity expansion decisions, hybrid life cycle assessment is used to evaluate a reference design of a parabolic trough concentrating solar power (CSP) facility located in Daggett, CA, along four sustainability metrics: life cycle (LC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, water consumption, cumulative energy demand (CED), and energy payback time (EPBT). This wet-cooled, 103 MW plant utilizes mined nitrates salts in its two-tank, thermal energy storage (TES) system. Design alternatives of dry-cooling, a thermocline TES, and synthetically derived nitrate salt are evaluated. During its LC, the reference CSP plant is estimated to emit 26 g of CO(2eq) per kWh, consume 4.7 L/kWh of water, and demand 0.40 MJ(eq)/kWh of energy, resulting in an EPBT of approximately 1 year. The dry-cooled alternative is estimated to reduce LC water consumption by 77% but increase LC GHG emissions and CED by 8%. Synthetic nitrate salts may increase LC GHG emissions by 52% compared to mined. Switching from two-tank to thermocline TES configuration reduces LC GHG emissions, most significantly for plants using synthetically derived nitrate salts. CSP can significantly reduce GHG emissions compared to fossil-fueled generation; however, dry-cooling may be required in many locations to minimize water consumption.

Life cycle environmental impacts of selected U.S. ethanol production and use pathways in 2022.

Projected life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and net energy value (NEV) of high-ethanol blend fuel (E85) used to propel a passenger car in the United States are evaluated using attributional life cycle assessment. Input data represent national-average conditions projected to 2022 for ethanol produced from corn grain, corn stover, wheat straw, switchgrass, and forest residues. Three conversion technologies are assessed: advanced dry mill (corn grain), biochemical (switchgrass, corn stover, wheat straw), and thermochemical (forest residues). A reference case is compared against results from Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis. For this case, one kilometer traveled on E85 from the feedstock-to-ethanol pathways evaluated has 43%-57% lower GHG emissions than a car operated on conventional U.S. gasoline (base year 2005). Differences in NEV cluster by conversion technology rather than by feedstock. The reference case estimates of GHG and NEV skew to the tails of the estimated frequency distributions. Though not as optimistic as the reference case, the projected median GHG and NEV for all feedstock-to-E85 pathways evaluated offer significant improvement over conventional U.S. gasoline. Sensitivity analysis suggests that inputs to the feedstock production phase are the most influential parameters for GHG and NEV. Results from this study can be used to help focus research and development efforts.

Environmental and sustainability factors associated with next-generation biofuels in the U.S.: what do we really know?

In this paper, we assess what is known or anticipated about environmental and sustainability factors associated with next-generation biofuels relative to the primary conventional biofuels (i.e., corn grain-based ethanol and soybean-based diesel) in the United States during feedstock production and conversion processes. Factors considered include greenhouse (GHG) emissions, air pollutant emissions, soil health and quality, water use and water quality, wastewater and solid waste streams, and biodiversity and land-use changes. Based on our review of the available literature, we find that the production of next-generation feedstocks in the U.S. (e.g., municipal solid waste, forest residues, dedicated energy crops, microalgae) are expected to fare better than corn-grain or soybean production on most of these factors, although the magnitude of these differences may vary significantly among feedstocks. Ethanol produced using a biochemical or thermochemical conversion platform is expected to result in fewer GHG and air pollutant emissions, but to have similar or potentially greater water demands and solid waste streams than conventional ethanol biorefineries in the U.S. However, these conversion-related differences are likely to be small, particularly relative to those associated with feedstock production. Modeling performed for illustrative purposes and to allow for standardized quantitative comparisons across feedstocks and conversion technologies generally confirms the findings from the literature. Despite current expectations, significant uncertainty remains regarding how well next-generation biofuels will fare on different environmental and sustainability factors when produced on a commercial scale in the U.S. Additional research is needed in several broad areas including quantifying impacts, designing standardized metrics and approaches, and developing decision-support tools to identify and quantify environmental trade-offs and ensure sustainable biofuels production.