Gender differences in determinants of marital disruption.

"Because the family is a highly gendered institution, the authors anticipated that characteristics of husbands and wives would have differing influences on marital disruption. Longitudinal data from the [U.S.] National Survey of Families and Households were used to examine the influence of sociodemographic and attitudinal characteristics of each spouse on the likelihood of marital disruption. In general, wives' variables have a stronger influence than do husbands' variables, suggesting that wives play a greater role in maintenance of marital relationships and are more sensitive to problems in the relationship. The relative influence of each spouse's characteristics is more similar in egalitarian marriages, however. Findings confirm the gendered nature of marital relationships."

Education as policy: the impact of education on marriage, contraception, and fertility in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.

Using data from the World Fertility and Demographic and Health Surveys of Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia, we model the effects of education on three demographic outcomes: the timing of first sexual union, contraceptive use, and fertility. These effects are examined over time and across geographic areas using a multivariate framework. We find substantial improvements in female educational attainment over the last fifty years and a strong relationship between education and the demographic outcomes. Each successive increment in education is associated with declines in the marriage rate, increased contraceptive use, and lower fertility. Education accounts for some of the changes over time in the demographic outcomes, but the pattern varies by outcome, time period, and geographic area. In support of the social diffusion hypothesis, our results indicate that educational differences in reproductive behavior are reduced as the level of development increases and societies pass through their demographic transition.

PIP: This study examined the effects of educational attainment on the timing of first union, contraceptive use, and fertility in Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia over the past 50 years. Data were obtained from World Fertility Surveys and Demographic and Health Surveys for Colombia (1976, 1986, and 1990); Peru (1977-78, 1986, and 1991-92); and Bolivia (1989 and 1993-94). Individual level data were used to examine the effects using various multivariate techniques: Cox proportional hazards models for age at first union; logistic models with controls for socioeconomic status for contraceptive use; and log linear techniques for fertility. Findings indicate a strong relationship between each demographic outcome: marriage age, contraceptive use, and fertility. In all countries, education influenced women's individual decisions about family formation. The strongest impact occurs between primary and secondary schooling, especially for marriage age. Increased educational attainment accounted for most of the decline in marriage rates over time. Increased education contributed to an increase in contraceptive use mostly in Peru. In Bolivia and Colombia, contraceptive availability was probably more important in the expansion of contraceptive use over time. Educational attainment over time only accounted for fertility decline in Peru and Colombia, and the effects were smaller than in other studies. Changes within educational categories appear to have contributed more to fertility decline than the expansion of educational opportunities. As countries progress through their transitions, there is a corresponding increase in contraceptive use and a later decline in actual fertility.

The changing pattern of interracial marriage.

Recent studies have demonstrated an increased occurrence of interracial marriages in the United States, indicating important shifts in intergroup relations. The effectiveness of traditional theoretical approaches in explaining who marries whom, however, remains problematic. Recently, exchange explanations (which have typically assumed that the black partner in the union exchanges educational and economic accomplishments for the higher "status" of the white spouse) have been replaced by progressive theories emphasizing a trend away from ascriptive and toward achievement norms. We extend this approach by predicting an economic and educational gap between spouses in interracial marriages when compared with racially homogamous marriages. Using the 1980 and 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample, we find continuing evidence that racial barriers in mate selection are weakening. Further, people who intermarry, regardless of race or gender, tend to have higher educational and economic status than those in homogamous marriages. There is still limited support for the kinds of social exchanges between spouses that were implied in earlier sociological theories. We conclude that (1) socioeconomic differentials are not always consistent with the exchange perspective and (2) that recent trends are not systematically eroding these socioeconomic differentials in mate selection.

A cross-national analysis of family and household structure.

"Profound demographic change has taken place in the past few decades in many countries including decreases in fertility and household size, and increases in divorce and non-traditional living arrangements. This paper analyzes the cross-national variation in these trends by utilizing two data sets. Fertility, marriage/divorce and household structure are modeled as separate domains of family life and tested in a LISREL model. The correlations across these domains are examined along with indicators of socioeconomic development and cultural context. Findings indicate that the level of economic development has direct and negative associations with all three family domains. Culture has an independent effect on family demographics but it does not override the forces of development."

Race differences in changing family demographics in the 1980s.

PIP: Many social forces influence Black and White family demographics, with patterns of family formation varying greatly between the races. The authors explore the degree to which a common set of independent variables can account for differences in the timing of family formation and dissolution for Black and White families. Racial differences are specifically considered in the timing of initiation of sexual activity, first marriage, first birth, and divorce. Independent variables considered are adolescent living arrangements with either one or two parents, mother's educational level, religion, region of the country, area of residency, birth cohort, and year of the survey. Data are drawn from the third and fourth cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth, a national probability sample of women aged 14-45 years including 5778 Blacks and 9004 Whites. Estimates of how Blacks would differ if they had mean values on covariates equal to White observed means suggest that these independent variables inadequately explain differences between Black and White family formation and dissolution. The authors therefore conclude that Blacks and Whites may be responding to different structural and cultural constraints which are not easily captured by basic demographic variables.^ieng

Adolescent life events and their association with the onset of sexual intercourse.

PIP: This research involved the analysis of US individual and family changes during adolescence and their association with first intercourse. Events include divorce, remarriage, school drop out, labor force entry, initial use of drugs, and initial dating behavior. Control variables are race, gender, and socioeconomic status of the family. Data (all variables with the exception of marital status variables) were obtained from the third wave (1987) of the National Survey of Children, which has tracked a sample of children since 1976. Event history analysis of time-varying and fixed covariates revealed that the lowest odds of sexual intercourse were among adolescents aged 12 years whose parents were married; the greatest likelihood was found among adolescents with a widowed parent. The odds for adolescents with divorced or separated parents was 0.83. Adolescents with parents who never married had a 1.11 greater likelihood of first intercourse at the age of 12 years. The impact of age was found to be highly significant and interactive with other events. The odds of first intercourse increased with increasing age. The odds plateau through age 20 years and double at ages 21 and 22 years. Blacks were 1.2 times more likely to have sex than Whites. Age, race, and gender complicate the consequences of dating and dropping out of school. The log odds of having first intercourse decreased by 0.086 for every year of maternal education. Males were 1.4 times more likely to have sex than females. Models which included adolescent event variables showed decreased coefficients for some control variables such as age and increased significance for race. Divorce appeared to have a significant effect only if it occurred after the age of 12 years. Divorce as disruption of the household appears to determine the effect rather than a single parent household. School dropouts were 1.5 times more likely to have sex in the year they dropped out and to decline over time. Initiating sex also increased the odds of dropping out. The effect for Blacks and males is felt in the year following dropping out, while for Whites and females the effect occurs in the same year. Causal ordering for job entry was found difficult to specify. Use of marijuana was related to a 2.2 greater likelihood of sex in the same and subsequent years. Age at first date is highly predictive of first intercourse.^ieng

Voluntary childlessness among American men and women in the late 1980's.

Most studies of childlessness in the United States have relied on unrepresentative, opportunistic samples collected in a variety of ways. Thus, the relationship of various correlates to childlessness is not well known. Some studies have focused on demographic variables, but have not examined attitudinal factors associated with childlessness--something the opportunistic samples have been able to do. In this paper we examine both attitudinal and demographic factors associated with childlessness in the United States. The data used in this paper are from the National Survey of Families and Households collected in 1987 and 1988. The data set includes both demographic data, perceived advantages and disadvantages of having children, and attitudinal data about related social issues. Overall, the rate of voluntary childlessness was not high. Only 3.5 per cent of the men and 2.8 per cent of the women reported that they were childless and did not expect to have children. Only one category of people (unmarried men and women over the age of 35) had rates that exceeded ten per cent. A combined variable of age and marital status was the best predictor of childlessness. A scale of reasons or justifications for having children was the next best predictor. In addition, attendance at religious services, number of hours the respondents desired to work and education (for women only) were related to childlessness. Those who scored highly on measures of support for traditional families and support of extended families also tended to have lower rates of childlessness. Occupational status, religious denomination, and race, on the other hand, were not significantly related to childlessness. Measures of gender equality, religious fundamentalism, and support for mothers working were also not related to childlessness.

PIP: To better understand voluntary childlessness in America, attitudinal, motivational, and demographic factors associated with the phenomenon are examined. The study was based upon 1987 and 1988 survey data of 13,017 respondents age 19 and older to the National Survey of Families and Households. Overall, 3.5% men and 2.8% women claimed voluntary childlessness with no expectation of having children in the future. Only unmarried men and women over age 35 expressed rates over 10%. The combined variable of age and marital status was the best predictor of childlessness followed by a scale of reasons or justifications for having children. Religious service attendance, number of hours respondents desired to work, and education were related to childlessness. Lower rates of childlessness were found among respondents with high measures of support for traditional and extended families. Occupational status, religious denomination, and race were not significantly related to childlessness, and measures of gender equality, religious fundamentalism, and support for mothers working were unrelated to childlessness. In sum, the desire to and practice of bearing children remains the American norm. Moreover, the frequency of childlessness is not increasing dramatically.

Marital stability throughout the child-rearing years.

Although there is evidence that the number and ages of children influence marital stability, studies have not systematically tracked the risk of marital disruption throughout the child-rearing years. This study uses marital and fertility histories from the June 1985 Current Population Survey to examine this issue. Continuous-time regression models with ages and numbers of children as time-varying covariates are estimated. Net of controls for age at marriage, year of marriage, education, and marital duration, stability increases with family size up to the third child but starts to decline as family size reaches five or more children. Aging of children is disruptive until the youngest child reaches adulthood, after which marriages become much more stable. Arrival and aging of children is an important dynamic with strong implications for marital stability.

Demographic determinants of delayed divorce.

This study identifies factors that predict delayed divorce in the US. The findings show that factors which influence marital stability in general also correlate with delayed divorce in the same direction. Wife's age at marriage, age of the youngest child, wife's religion, region of residence, and metropolitan residence have substantial effects of delayed divorce, but the effects of race, parental divorce, premarital pregnancy, and socioeconomic status are small.

Initiation of sexual activity among female adolescents.

PIP: According to the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth, 46% women aged 15-19 had experienced premarital intercourse. Projections based on this study show that by their 20th birthdays, 70% of all women in the US will have experienced premarital intercourse. This article examines the effects of various factors on the likelihood that teenagers will become sexually active. Data for this study were taken from the National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle III. Fieldwork was done in 1982 and included interviews of 7969 women aged 15-44. Data include background characteristics, measures of fertility and contraception, measures of fecundity and birth expectations, use of family planning services, and the respondent's marital history. The study concludes that family stability (intact families), Hispanic ethnicity, high parental education, religious affiliation, regular church attendance, and reproductive education decrease the occurrence of 1st intercourse. Other factors characterize an environment that is unstable and unstructured and has a liberalizing influence upon 1st intercourse. Teens from broken homes, blacks, and the lower social classes are more likely to initiate intercourse. Geographic factors have a very small influence upon the initiation of sexual activity among teens. Similar patterns of influence appear regarding contraceptive use. The same factors that encourage stability, such as high father's education, Catholic or Jewish religious affiliation, religious attendance, and reproductive instruction shift the odds in favor of contracepted rather than noncontracepted sex. Family instability and low social class increase the risk that 1st intercourse will not be contracepted. Providing too much sex education, such as instruction on birth control, may actually contribute to the leniency of the environment, although the authors find no evidence that school-based birth control instruction increases the chances that contraceptives will be used. Environments that are too restrictive increase the chance that 1st intercourse will be noncontracepted. In sum, adolescents need an environment balanced between the liberal and conservative extremes to reduce the rate of 1st intercourse and to increase the use of contraception at intercourse.^ieng

Monitoring the metropolitanization process.

Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950-1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950-1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.

Families, jobs and mobility: a comparison of migration streams in Thailand and Colombia.

PIP: An analysis of migration in developing countries is presented. The analysis concentrates on change at the individual level and the extent to which factors such as age, education, and length of residence can account for changes experienced by migrants in various migrant streams. The data concern Colombia and Thailand. The differences among migration streams between similar urban places, to large towns, and away from larger towns are considered.^ieng

Migration and the transformation of employment and household structures.

Data collected in Colombia and Thailand in 1977 are used to "compare the employment and household characteristics of migrants before and after the move in order to assess the degree of change which accompanies migration. Moreover, these comparisons [are] made for migration streams between places at different levels in the urban hierarchy with the intention of determining within which streams the greatest transformations occur."

Components of change in the residential concentration of the elderly population: 1950-1975.

Changes in the absolute and relative size of the elderly population within metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas are decomposed into the underlying demographic components for three time periods: 1950 to 1960, 1960 to 1970, 1970 to 1975. Specifically, we examine the components of net migration and natural increase of those aged 0 to 64 and those 64 or older. Using published migration estimates for the U.S., this study demonstrates that elderly migration has represented an increasingly important component of the absolute growth of the elderly population within nonmetropolitan areas and a corresponding decline in large SMSAs. Although "aging-in-place" was a dominant component of change in he elderly percentage irrespective of residence, we show that the demographic components of the young also exercise an important and often overlooked effect on the aging process. Most prominent was the slowing of relative aging in remote nonmetropolitan areas, due largely to the post-1970 changeover from net outmigration to net inmigration of those less than 65 years of age.