The hidden simplicity of subduction megathrust earthquakes.

The largest observed earthquakes occur on subduction interfaces and frequently cause widespread damage and loss of life. Understanding the rupture behavior of megathrust events is crucial for earthquake rupture physics, as well as for earthquake early-warning systems. However, the large variability in behavior between individual events seemingly defies a description with a simple unifying model. Here we use three source time function (STF) data sets for subduction zone earthquakes, with moment magnitude Mw ≥ 7, and show that such large ruptures share a typical universal behavior. The median STF is scalable between events with different sizes, grows linearly, and is nearly triangular. The deviations from the median behavior are multiplicative and Gaussian-that is, they are proportionally larger for larger events. Our observations suggest that earthquake magnitudes cannot be predicted from the characteristics of rupture onsets.

Sedimentary records of sewage pollution using faecal markers in contrasting peri-urban shallow lakes.

Sewage contamination in shallow lake sediments is of concern because the pathogens, organic matter and nutrients contribute to the deterioration of the water-bodies' health and ecology. Sediment cores from three shallow lakes (Coneries, Church and Clifton Ponds) within Attenborough nature reserve located downstream of sewage treatment works were analysed for TOC, C/N, δ(13)C, δ(15)N, bacterial coliforms and faecal sterols. (210)Pb and (137)Cs activities were used to date the sediments. Elemental analysis suggests that the source of organic matter was algal and down profile changes in δ(13)C indicate a possible decrease in productivity with time which could be due to improvements in sewage treatment. δ(15)N for Coneries Pond are slightly higher than those observed in Church or Clifton and are consistent with a sewage-derived nitrate source which has been diluted by non-sewage sources of N. The similarity in δ(15)N values (+12 ‰ to +10 ‰) indicates that the three ponds were not entirely hydrologically isolated. Analysis by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS) reveals that Coneries Pond had sterol concentrations in the range 20 to 30 µg/g (dry wt.), whereas, those from Clifton and Church Ponds were lower. The highest concentrations of the human-sourced sewage marker 5ß-coprostanol were observed in the top 40 cm of Coneries Pond with values up to 2.2 µg/g. In contrast, Church and Clifton Pond sediments contain only trace amounts throughout. Down-profile comparison of 5ß-coprostanol/cholesterol, 5ß-coprostanol/(5ß-coprostanol+5α-cholestanol) and 5ß-epicoprostanol/coprostanol as well as 5α-cholestanol/cholesterol suggests that Coneries Pond has received appreciable amounts of faecal contamination. Examination of 5ß-stigmastanol (marker for herbivorous/ruminant animals) down core concentrations suggests a recent decrease in manure slurry input to Coneries Pond. The greater concentration of ß-sitosterol in sediments from Church and Clifton Ponds as compared to Coneries is attributed in part to their greater diversity and extent of aquatic plants and avian faeces.

Potential canopy influences on the isotopic composition of nitrogen and sulphur in atmospheric deposition.

Isotopic studies of nitrogen and sulphur inputs to plant/soil systems commonly rely on limited published data for the 15N/14N and 34S/32S ratios of nitrate, ammonium and sulphate in rainfall. For systems with well-developed plant canopies, however, inputs of these ions from dry deposition or particulates may be more important than rainfall. The manner in which isotopic fractionation between ions and gases may lead to dry deposition and particulates having 15N/14N or 34S/32S ratios different from those of rainfall is considered. Data for rainfall and throughfall in coniferous plantations are then discussed, and suggest that: (1) in line with expectations, nitrate washed from the canopy has 15N/14N ratios higher than those in rainfall; (2) the 15N/14N ratios of ammonium washed from the canopy are variable, with high ratios being found for canopies of higher pH in conditions of elevated ambient ammonia gas concentrations; and (3) in accord with expectations and previous work, 34S/32S ratios of sulphate washed from the canopy are not substantially different from those in rainfall. The study suggests that if atmospheric inputs are relevant to isotopic studies of the sources of nitrogen for canopied systems, then confident interpretation will require analysis of these inputs.

Response of high-rise and base-isolated buildings to a hypothetical mw 7.0 blind thrust earthquake.

High-rise flexible-frame buildings are commonly considered to be resistant to shaking from the largest earthquakes. In addition, base isolation has become increasingly popular for critical buildings that should still function after an earthquake. How will these two types of buildings perform if a large earthquake occurs beneath a metropolitan area? To answer this question, we simulated the near-source ground motions of a M(w) 7.0 thrust earthquake and then mathematically modeled the response of a 20-story steel-frame building and a 3-story base-isolated building. The synthesized ground motions were characterized by large displacement pulses (up to 2 meters) and large ground velocities. These ground motions caused large deformation and possible collapse of the frame building, and they required exceptional measures in the design of the base-isolated building if it was to remain functional.

Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone.

Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M(w)) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M(w) 8) or a giant earthquake (M(w) 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M(w) less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M(w) up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis.

The 15N/14N ratios of plants in South Africa and Namibia: relationship to climate and coastal/saline environments.

Data are presented for the 15N/14N ratios of 140 indigenous terrestrial plants from a wide variety of natural habitats in South Africa and Namibia. Over much of the area, from high-rainfall mountains to arid deserts, the δ 15N values of plants lie typically in the range -1 to +6‰; with no evident differences between C3 plants and C4 grasses. There is a slight correlation between δ 15N and aridity, but this is less marked than the correlation between the δ 15N values of animal bones and aridity. At coastal or saline sites, however, the mean δ 15N values for plants are higher than those at nearby inland or non-saline sites-e.g.: arid Namib coast (10‰ higher than inland Namib); wet Natal beach (5‰ higher than inland Natal); saline soils 500 km from coast (4‰ higher than non-saline soils). High values were also found at one site where there were no marked coastal or saline influences. These environmental effects on the isotopic composition of plants will extend upwards to the animals and humans they support. They therefore have important consequences for the use of nitrogen isotope data in the study of the dietary habits and trophic structures of modern and prehistoric communities.

A model for a seismic computerized alert network.

In large earthquakes, damaging ground motions may occur at large epicentral distances. Because of the relatively slow speed of seismic waves, it is possible to construct a system to provide short-term warning (as much as several tens of seconds) of imminent strong ground motions from major earthquakes. Automated safety responses could be triggered by users after receiving estimates of the arrival time and strength of shaking expected at an individual site. Although warning times are likely to be short for areas greatly damaged by relatively numerous earthquakes of moderate size, large areas that experience very strong shaking during great earthquakes would receive longer warning times.

Point mugu, california, earthquake of 21 february 1973 and its aftershocks.

Seismological investigations show that the Point Mugu earthquake involved north-south crustal shortening deep within the complex fault zone that marks the southern front of the Transverse Ranges province. This earthquake sequence results from the same stress system responsible for the deformation in this province in the Pliocene through Holocene and draws attention to the significant earthquake hazard that the southern frontal fault system poses to the Los Angeles metropolitan area.