Epigenetic and proteomic signatures associate with clonal hematopoiesis expansion rate.

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP), whereby somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells confer a selective advantage and drive clonal expansion, not only correlates with age but also confers increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Here, we leverage genetically predicted traits to identify factors that determine CHIP clonal expansion rate. We used the passenger-approximated clonal expansion rate method to quantify the clonal expansion rate for 4,370 individuals in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) cohort and calculated polygenic risk scores for DNA methylation aging, inflammation-related measures and circulating protein levels. Clonal expansion rate was significantly associated with both genetically predicted and measured epigenetic clocks. No associations were identified with inflammation-related lab values or diseases and CHIP expansion rate overall. A proteome-wide search identified predicted circulating levels of myeloid zinc finger 1 and anti-Müllerian hormone as associated with an increased CHIP clonal expansion rate and tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1 and glycine N-methyltransferase as associated with decreased CHIP clonal expansion rate. Together, our findings identify epigenetic and proteomic patterns associated with the rate of hematopoietic clonal expansion.

Statin use and risks of breast cancer recurrence and mortality.

BACKGROUND: Preclinical evidence suggests improved breast cancer survival associated with statin use, but findings from observational studies are conflicting and remain inconclusive. The objective of this study was to assess the association between statin use after cancer diagnosis and cancer outcomes among breast cancer patients. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, 38,858 women aged ≥66 years who were diagnosed with localized and regional stage breast cancer from 2008 through 2017 were identified from the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Medicare database. Statin use was ascertained from Medicare Part D pharmacy claims data. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between post-diagnosis statin use and risks of breast cancer recurrence and breast cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 2.9 years for recurrence and 3.7 years for mortality, 1446 women experienced a recurrence, and 2215 died from breast cancer. The mean duration of post-diagnosis statin use was 2.2 years. Statin use post-diagnosis was not associated with recurrence risk (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.91-1.21), but was associated with a reduced risk of cancer-specific mortality (HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75-0.96). The reduction was more pronounced in women with hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative breast cancer (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.88). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that post-diagnosis statin use is associated with improved cancer-specific survival in women with breast cancer and should be confirmed in randomized trials of statin therapy in breast cancer patients.

Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure and Incident Stroke Type Variation by Race and Ethnicity.

Importance: Stroke risk varies by systolic blood pressure (SBP), race, and ethnicity. The association between cumulative mean SBP and incident stroke type is unclear, and whether this association differs by race and ethnicity remains unknown. Objective: To examine the association between cumulative mean SBP and first incident stroke among 3 major stroke types-ischemic stroke (IS), intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH)-and explore how these associations vary by race and ethnicity. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual participant data from 6 US longitudinal cohorts (January 1, 1971, to December 31, 2019) were pooled. The analysis was performed from January 1, 2022, to January 2, 2024. The median follow-up was 21.6 (IQR, 13.6-31.8) years. Exposure: Time-dependent cumulative mean SBP. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was time from baseline visit to first incident stroke. Secondary outcomes consisted of time to first incident IS, ICH, and SAH. Results: Among 40 016 participants, 38 167 who were 18 years or older at baseline with no history of stroke and at least 1 SBP measurement before the first incident stroke were included in the analysis. Of these, 54.0% were women; 25.0% were Black, 8.9% were Hispanic of any race, and 66.2% were White. The mean (SD) age at baseline was 53.4 (17.0) years and the mean (SD) SBP at baseline was 136.9 (20.4) mm Hg. A 10-mm Hg higher cumulative mean SBP was associated with a higher risk of overall stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.18-1.23]), IS (HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.17-1.22]), and ICH (HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.25-1.38]) but not SAH (HR, 1.13 [95% CI, 0.99-1.29]; P = .06). Compared with White participants, Black participants had a higher risk of IS (HR, 1.20 [95% CI, 1.09-1.33]) and ICH (HR, 1.67 [95% CI, 1.30-2.13]) and Hispanic participants of any race had a higher risk of SAH (HR, 3.81 [95% CI, 1.29-11.22]). There was no consistent evidence that race and ethnicity modified the association of cumulative mean SBP with first incident stroke and stroke type. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that cumulative mean SBP was associated with incident stroke type, but the associations did not differ by race and ethnicity. Culturally informed stroke prevention programs should address modifiable risk factors such as SBP along with social determinants of health and structural inequities in society.

Development and validation of the Michigan Chronic Disease Simulation Model (MICROSIM).

Strategies to prevent or delay Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (AD/ADRD) are urgently needed, and blood pressure (BP) management is a promising strategy. Yet the effects of different BP control strategies across the life course on AD/ADRD are unknown. Randomized trials may be infeasible due to prolonged follow-up and large sample sizes. Simulation analysis is a practical approach to estimating these effects using the best available existing data. However, existing simulation frameworks cannot estimate the effects of BP control on both dementia and cardiovascular disease. This manuscript describes the design principles, implementation details, and population-level validation of a novel population-health microsimulation framework, the MIchigan ChROnic Disease SIMulation (MICROSIM), for The Effect of Lower Blood Pressure over the Life Course on Late-life Cognition in Blacks, Hispanics, and Whites (BP-COG) study of the effect of BP levels over the life course on dementia and cardiovascular disease. MICROSIM is an agent-based Monte Carlo simulation designed using computer programming best practices. MICROSIM estimates annual vascular risk factor levels and transition probabilities in all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality in a nationally representative sample of US adults 18+ using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). MICROSIM models changes in risk factors over time, cognition and dementia using changes from a pooled dataset of individual participant data from 6 US prospective cardiovascular cohort studies. Cardiovascular risks were estimated using a widely used risk model and BP treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses of randomized trials. MICROSIM is an extensible, open-source framework designed to estimate the population-level impact of different BP management strategies and reproduces US population-level estimates of BP and other vascular risk factors levels, their change over time, and incident all-cause dementia, stroke, myocardial infarction, and mortality.

Validation of human telomere length multi-ancestry meta-analysis association signals identifies POP5 and KBTBD6 as human telomere length regulation genes.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have become well-powered to detect loci associated with telomere length. However, no prior work has validated genes nominated by GWAS to examine their role in telomere length regulation. We conducted a multi-ancestry meta-analysis of 211,369 individuals and identified five novel association signals. Enrichment analyses of chromatin state and cell-type heritability suggested that blood/immune cells are the most relevant cell type to examine telomere length association signals. We validated specific GWAS associations by overexpressing KBTBD6 or POP5 and demonstrated that both lengthened telomeres. CRISPR/Cas9 deletion of the predicted causal regions in K562 blood cells reduced expression of these genes, demonstrating that these loci are related to transcriptional regulation of KBTBD6 and POP5. Our results demonstrate the utility of telomere length GWAS in the identification of telomere length regulation mechanisms and validate KBTBD6 and POP5 as genes affecting telomere length regulation.

AI-enabled left atrial volumetry in coronary artery calcium scans (AI-CACTM) predicts atrial fibrillation as early as one year, improves CHARGE-AF, and outperforms NT-proBNP: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scans contain actionable information beyond CAC scores that is not currently reported. METHODS: We have applied artificial intelligence-enabled automated cardiac chambers volumetry to CAC scans (AI-CACTM) to 5535 asymptomatic individuals (52.2% women, ages 45-84) that were previously obtained for CAC scoring in the baseline examination (2000-2002) of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). AI-CAC took on average 21 â€‹s per CAC scan. We used the 5-year outcomes data for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and assessed discrimination using the time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) of AI-CAC LA volume with known predictors of AF, the CHARGE-AF Risk Score and NT-proBNP. The mean follow-up time to an AF event was 2.9 â€‹± â€‹1.4 years. RESULTS: At 1,2,3,4, and 5 years follow-up 36, 77, 123, 182, and 236 cases of AF were identified, respectively. The AUC for AI-CAC LA volume was significantly higher than CHARGE-AF for Years 1, 2, and 3 (0.83 vs. 0.74, 0.84 vs. 0.80, and 0.81 vs. 0.78, respectively, all p â€‹< â€‹0.05), but similar for Years 4 and 5, and significantly higher than NT-proBNP at Years 1-5 (all p â€‹< â€‹0.01), but not for combined CHARGE-AF and NT-proBNP at any year. AI-CAC LA significantly improved the continuous Net Reclassification Index for prediction of AF over years 1-5 when added to CHARGE-AF Risk Score (0.60, 0.28, 0.32, 0.19, 0.24), and NT-proBNP (0.68, 0.44, 0.42, 0.30, 0.37) (all p â€‹< â€‹0.01). CONCLUSION: AI-CAC LA volume enabled prediction of AF as early as one year and significantly improved on risk classification of CHARGE-AF Risk Score and NT-proBNP.

Deep phenotyping of dementia in a multi-ethnic cardiovascular cohort: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Our understanding of the specific aspects of vascular contributions to dementia remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: We aim to identify the correlates of incident dementia in a multi-ethnic cardiovascular cohort. METHODS: A total of 6806 participants with follow-up data for incident dementia were included. Probable dementia diagnoses were identified using hospitalization discharge diagnoses according to the International Classification of Diseases Codes (ICD). We used Random Forest analyses to identify the correlates of incident dementia and cognitive function from among 198 variables collected at the baseline MESA exam entailing demographic risk factors, medical history, anthropometry, lab biomarkers, electrocardiograms, cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging, carotid ultrasonography, coronary artery calcium and liver fat content. Death and stroke were considered competing events. RESULTS: Over 14 years of follow-up, 326 dementia events were identified. Beyond age, the top correlates of dementia included coronary artery calcification, high sensitivity troponin, common carotid artery intima to media thickness, NT-proBNP, physical activity, pulse pressure, tumor necrosis factor-α, history of cancer, and liver to spleen attenuation ratio from computed tomography. Correlates of cognitive function included income and physical activity, body size, serum glucose, glomerular filtration rate, measures of carotid artery stiffness, alcohol use, and inflammation indexed as IL-2 and TNF soluble receptors and plasmin-antiplasmin complex. CONCLUSION: In a deeply phenotyped cardiovascular cohort we identified the key correlates of dementia beyond age as subclinical atherosclerosis and myocyte damage, vascular function, inflammation, physical activity, hepatic steatosis, and history of cancer.

Subclinical vascular composites predict clinical cardiovascular disease, stroke, and dementia: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) measures may reflect biological pathways that contribute to increased risk for coronary heart disease (CHD) events, stroke, and dementia beyond conventional risk scores. METHODS: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) followed 6814 participants (45-84 years of age) from baseline in 2000-2002 to 2018 over 6 clinical examinations and annual follow-up interviews. MESA baseline subclinical CVD procedures included: seated and supineblood pressure, coronary calcium scan, radial artery tonometry, and carotid ultrasound. Baseline subclinical CVD measures were transformed into z-scores before factor analysis to derive composite factor scores. Time to clinical event for all-cause CVD, CHD, stroke and ICD code-based dementia events were modeled using Cox proportional hazards models reported as area under the curve (AUC) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95%CI) at 10 and 15 years of follow-up. All models included all factor scores together, and adjustment for conventional risk scores for global CVD, stroke, and dementia. RESULTS: After factor selection, 24 subclinical measures aggregated into four distinct factors representing: blood pressure, atherosclerosis, arteriosclerosis, and cardiac factors. Each factor significantly predicted time to CVD events and dementia at 10 and 15 years independent of each other and conventional risk scores. Subclinical vascular composites of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis best predicted time to clinical events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia. These results were consistent across sex and racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical vascular composites of atherosclerosis and arteriosclerosis may be useful biomarkers to inform the vascular pathways contributing to events of CVD, CHD, stroke, and dementia.

Associations between 3D-based Left Atrial Volumetric and Blood Flow Parameters in a Single-Site Cohort of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Purpose To investigate associations between left atrial volume (LAV) and function with impaired three-dimensional hemodynamics from four-dimensional flow MRI. Materials and Methods A subcohort of participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis from Northwestern University underwent prospective 1.5-T cardiac MRI including whole-heart four-dimensional flow and short-axis cine imaging between 2019 and 2020. Four-dimensional flow MRI analysis included manual three-dimensional segmentations of the LA and LA appendage (LAA), which were used to quantify LA and LAA peak velocity and blood stasis (% voxels < 0.1 m/sec). Short-axis cine data were used to delineate LA contours on all cardiac time points, and the resulting three-dimensional-based LAVs were extracted for calculation of LA emptying fractions (LAEFtotal, LAEFactive, LAEFpassive). Stepwise multivariable linear models were calculated for each flow parameter (LA stasis, LA peak velocity, LAA stasis, LAA peak velocity) to determine associations with LAV and LAEF. Results This study included 158 participants (mean age, 73 years ± 7 [SD]; 83 [52.5%] female and 75 [47.4%] male participants). In multivariable models, a 1-unit increase of LAEFtotal was associated with decreased LA stasis (ß coefficient, -0.47%; P < .001), while increased LAEFactive was associated with increased LA peak velocity (ß coefficient, 0.21 cm/sec; P < .001). Furthermore, increased minimum LAV indexed was most associated with impaired LAA flow (higher LAA stasis [ß coefficient, 0.65%; P < .001] and lower LAA peak velocity [ß coefficient, -0.35 cm/sec; P < .001]). Conclusion Higher minimum LAV and reduced LA function were associated with impaired flow characteristics in the LA and LAA. LAV assessment might therefore be a surrogate measure for LA and LAA flow abnormalities. Keywords: Atherosclerosis, Left Atrial Volume, Left Atrial Blood Flow, 4D Flow MRI Supplemental material is available for this article. © RSNA, 2024.

MRI Investigation of the Association of Left Atrial and Left Atrial Appendage Hemodynamics with Silent Brain Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Left atrial (LA) myopathy is thought to be associated with silent brain infarctions (SBI) through changes in blood flow hemodynamics leading to thrombogenesis. 4D-flow MRI enables in-vivo hemodynamic quantification in the left atrium (LA) and LA appendage (LAA). PURPOSE: To determine whether LA and LAA hemodynamic and volumetric parameters are associated with SBI. STUDY TYPE: Prospective observational study. POPULATION: A single-site cohort of 125 Participants of the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA), mean age: 72.3 ± 7.2 years, 56 men. FIELD STRENGTH/SEQUENCE: 1.5T. Cardiac MRI: Cine balanced steady state free precession (bSSFP) and 4D-flow sequences. Brain MRI: T1- and T2-weighted SE and FLAIR. ASSESSMENT: Presence of SBI was determined from brain MRI by neuroradiologists according to routine diagnostic criteria in all participants without a history of stroke based on the MESA database. Minimum and maximum LA volumes and ejection fraction were calculated from bSSFP data. Blood stasis (% of voxels <10 cm/sec) and peak velocity (cm/sec) in the LA and LAA were assessed by a radiologist using an established 4D-flow workflow. STATISTICAL TESTS: Student's t test, Mann-Whitney U test, one-way ANOVA, chi-square test. Multivariable stepwise logistic regression with automatic forward and backward selection. Significance level P < 0.05. RESULTS: 26 (20.8%) had at least one SBI. After Bonferroni correction, participants with SBI were significantly older and had significantly lower peak velocities in the LAA. In multivariable analyses, age (per 10-years) (odds ratio (OR) = 1.99 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.30-3.04)) and LAA peak velocity (per cm/sec) (OR = 0.87 (95% CI: 0.81-0.93)) were significantly associated with SBI. CONCLUSION: Older age and lower LAA peak velocity were associated with SBI in multivariable analyses whereas volumetric-based measures from cardiac MRI or cardiovascular risk factors were not. Cardiac 4D-flow MRI showed potential to serve as a novel imaging marker for SBI. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 3 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Trajectory of Cognitive Function After Incident Heart Failure.

Background: The size/magnitude of cognitive changes after incident heart failure (HF) are unclear. We assessed whether incident HF is associated with changes in cognitive function after accounting for pre-HF cognitive trajectories and known determinants of cognition. Methods: This pooled cohort study included adults without HF, stroke, or dementia from six US population-based cohort studies from 1971-2019: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Offspring Study, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Northern Manhattan Study. Linear mixed-effects models estimated changes in cognition at the time of HF (change in the intercept) and the rate of cognitive change over the years after HF (change in the slope), controlling for pre-HF cognitive trajectories and participant factors. Change in global cognition was the primary outcome. Change in executive function and memory were secondary outcomes. Cognitive outcomes were standardized to a t-score metric (mean [SD], 50 [10]); a 1-point difference represented a 0.1-SD difference in cognition. Results: The study included 29,614 adults (mean [SD] age was 61.1 [10.5] years, 55% female, 70.3% White, 22.2% Black 7.5% Hispanic). During a median follow-up of 6.6 (Q1-Q3: 5-19.8) years, 1,407 (4.7%) adults developed incident HF. Incident HF was associated with an acute decrease in global cognition (-1.08 points; 95% CI -1.36, -0.80) and executive function (-0.65 points; 95% CI -0.96, -0.34) but not memory (-0.51 points; 95% CI -1.37, 0.35) at the time of the event. Greater acute decreases in global cognition after HF were seen in those with older age, female sex and White race. Individuals with incident HF, compared to HF-free individuals, demonstrated faster declines in global cognition (-0.15 points per year; 95% CI, -0.21, -0.09) and executive function (-0.16 points per year; 95% CI -0.23, -0.09) but not memory ( -0.11 points per year; 95% CI -0.26, 0.04) compared with pre-HF slopes. Conclusions: In this pooled cohort study, incident HF was associated with an acute decrease in global cognition and executive function at the time of the event and faster declines in global cognition and executive function over the following years.

AI-enabled Left Atrial Volumetry in Cardiac CT Scans Improves CHARGE-AF and Outperforms NT-ProBNP for Prediction of Atrial Fibrillation in Asymptomatic Individuals: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Background: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) scans contain actionable information beyond CAC scores that is not currently reported. Methods: We have applied artificial intelligence-enabled automated cardiac chambers volumetry to CAC scans (AI-CAC), taking on average 21 seconds per CAC scan, to 5535 asymptomatic individuals (52.2% women, ages 45-84) that were previously obtained for CAC scoring in the baseline examination (2000-2002) of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We used the 5-year outcomes data for incident atrial fibrillation (AF) and compared the time-dependent AUC of AI-CAC LA volume with known predictors of AF, the CHARGE-AF Risk Score and NT-proBNP (BNP). The mean follow-up time to an AF event was 2.9±1.4 years. Results: At 1,2,3,4, and 5 years follow-up 36, 77, 123, 182, and 236 cases of AF were identified, respectively. The AUC for AI-CAC LA volume was significantly higher than CHARGE-AF or BNP at year 1 (0.836, 0.742, 0.742), year 2 (0.842, 0.807,0.772), and year 3 (0.811, 0.785, 0.745) (p<0.02), but similar for year 4 (0.785, 0.769, 0.725) and year 5 (0.781, 0.767, 0.734) respectively (p>0.05). AI-CAC LA volume significantly improved the continuous Net Reclassification Index for prediction of AF over years 1-5 when added to CAC score (0.74, 0.49, 0.53, 0.39, 0.44), CHARGE-AF Risk Score (0.60, 0.28, 0.32, 0.19, 0.24), and BNP (0.68, 0.44, 0.42, 0.30, 0.37) respectively (p<0.01). Conclusion: AI-CAC LA volume enabled prediction of AF as early as one year and significantly improved on risk classification of CHARGE-AF Risk Score and BNP.

Genetic and Clinical Correlates of AI-Based Brain Aging Patterns in Cognitively Unimpaired Individuals.

Importance: Brain aging elicits complex neuroanatomical changes influenced by multiple age-related pathologies. Understanding the heterogeneity of structural brain changes in aging may provide insights into preclinical stages of neurodegenerative diseases. Objective: To derive subgroups with common patterns of variation in participants without diagnosed cognitive impairment (WODCI) in a data-driven manner and relate them to genetics, biomedical measures, and cognitive decline trajectories. Design, Setting, and Participants: Data acquisition for this cohort study was performed from 1999 to 2020. Data consolidation and harmonization were conducted from July 2017 to July 2021. Age-specific subgroups of structural brain measures were modeled in 4 decade-long intervals spanning ages 45 to 85 years using a deep learning, semisupervised clustering method leveraging generative adversarial networks. Data were analyzed from July 2021 to February 2023 and were drawn from the Imaging-Based Coordinate System for Aging and Neurodegenerative Diseases (iSTAGING) international consortium. Individuals WODCI at baseline spanning ages 45 to 85 years were included, with greater than 50 000 data time points. Exposures: Individuals WODCI at baseline scan. Main Outcomes and Measures: Three subgroups, consistent across decades, were identified within the WODCI population. Associations with genetics, cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs), amyloid ß (Aß), and future cognitive decline were assessed. Results: In a sample of 27 402 individuals (mean [SD] age, 63.0 [8.3] years; 15 146 female [55%]) WODCI, 3 subgroups were identified in contrast with the reference group: a typical aging subgroup, A1, with a specific pattern of modest atrophy and white matter hyperintensity (WMH) load, and 2 accelerated aging subgroups, A2 and A3, with characteristics that were more distinct at age 65 years and older. A2 was associated with hypertension, WMH, and vascular disease-related genetic variants and was enriched for Aß positivity (ages ≥65 years) and apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 carriers. A3 showed severe, widespread atrophy, moderate presence of CVRFs, and greater cognitive decline. Genetic variants associated with A1 were protective for WMH (rs7209235: mean [SD] B = -0.07 [0.01]; P value = 2.31 × 10-9) and Alzheimer disease (rs72932727: mean [SD] B = 0.1 [0.02]; P value = 6.49 × 10-9), whereas the converse was observed for A2 (rs7209235: mean [SD] B = 0.1 [0.01]; P value = 1.73 × 10-15 and rs72932727: mean [SD] B = -0.09 [0.02]; P value = 4.05 × 10-7, respectively); variants in A3 were associated with regional atrophy (rs167684: mean [SD] B = 0.08 [0.01]; P value = 7.22 × 10-12) and white matter integrity measures (rs1636250: mean [SD] B = 0.06 [0.01]; P value = 4.90 × 10-7). Conclusions and Relevance: The 3 subgroups showed distinct associations with CVRFs, genetics, and subsequent cognitive decline. These subgroups likely reflect multiple underlying neuropathologic processes and affect susceptibility to Alzheimer disease, paving pathways toward patient stratification at early asymptomatic stages and promoting precision medicine in clinical trials and health care.

Proteomic Signature of HIV-Associated Subclinical Left Atrial Remodeling and Incident Heart Failure.

Background: People living with HIV (PLWH) are at higher risk of heart failure (HF) and preceding subclinical cardiac abnormalities, including left atrial dilation, compared to people without HIV (PWOH). Hypothesized mechanisms include premature aging linked to chronic immune activation. We leveraged plasma proteomics to identify potential novel contributors to HIV-associated differences in indexed left atrial volume (LAVi) among PLWH and PWOH and externally validated identified proteomic signatures with incident HF among a cohort of older PWOH. Methods: We performed proteomics (Olink Explore 3072) on plasma obtained concurrently with cardiac magnetic resonance imaging among PLWH and PWOH in the United States. Proteins were analyzed individually and as agnostically defined clusters. Cross-sectional associations with HIV and LAVi were estimated using multivariable regression with robust variance. Among an independent general population cohort, we estimated associations between identified signatures and LAVi using linear regression and incident HF using Cox regression. Results: Among 352 participants (age 55±6 years; 25% female), 61% were PLWH (88% on ART; 73% with undetectable HIV RNA) and mean LAVi was 29±9 mL/m 2 . Of 2594 analyzed proteins, 439 were associated with HIV serostatus, independent of demographics, hepatitis C virus infection, renal function, and substance use (FDR<0.05). We identified 73 of these proteins as candidate contributors to the independent association between positive HIV serostatus and higher LAVi, enriched in tumor necrosis factor (TNF) signaling and immune checkpoint proteins regulating T cell, B cell, and NK cell activation. We identified one protein cluster associated with LAVi and HIV regardless of HIV viral suppression status, which comprised 42 proteins enriched in TNF signaling, ephrin signaling, and extracellular matrix (ECM) organization. This protein cluster and 30 of 73 individual proteins were associated with incident HF among 2273 older PWOH (age 68±9 years; 52% female; 8.5±1.4 years of follow-up). Conclusion: Proteomic signatures that may contribute to HIV-associated LA remodeling were enriched in immune checkpoint proteins, cytokine signaling, and ECM organization. These signatures were also associated with incident HF among older PWOH, suggesting specific markers of chronic immune activation, systemic inflammation, and fibrosis may identify shared pathways in HIV and aging that contribute to risk of HF.

The Association of Upper Airway Anatomy with Brain Structure: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

Sleep apnea, affecting an estimated 1 in 4 American adults, has been reported to be associated with both brain structural abnormality and impaired cognitive function. Obstructive sleep apnea is known to be affected by upper airway anatomy. To better understand the contribution of upper airway anatomy to pathways linking sleep apnea with impaired cognitive function, we investigated the association of upper airway anatomy with structural brain abnormalities. Based in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, a longitudinal cohort study of community-dwelling adults, a comprehensive sleep study and an MRI of the upper airway and brain were performed on 578 participants. Machine learning models were used to select from 74 upper airway measures those measures most associated with selected regional brain volumes and white matter hyperintensity volume. Linear regression assessed associations between the selected upper airway measures, sleep measures, and brain structure. Maxillary divergence was positively associated with hippocampus volume, and mandible length was negatively associated with total white and gray matter volume. Both coefficients were small (coefficients per standard deviation 0.063 mL, p = 0.04, and - 7.0 mL, p < 0.001 respectively), and not affected by adjustment for sleep study measures. Self-reported snoring >2 times per week was associated with larger hippocampus volume (coefficient 0.164 mL, p = 0.007), and higher percentage of time in the N3 sleep stage was associated with larger total white and gray matter volume (4.8 mL, p = 0.004). Despite associations of two upper airway anatomy measures with brain volume, the evidence did not suggest that these upper airway and brain structure associations were acting primarily through the pathway of sleep disturbance.

Atherothrombotic and thrombolytic biomarkers in incident stroke and atrial fibrillation-related stroke: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Although several biomarkers have been studied in thromboembolic stroke, measuring the balance between thrombus formation and thrombolysis and data on its role in predicting stroke and atrial fibrillation (AF)-related stroke is limited. We sought to assess atherothrombotic biomarkers grouped into composite factors that reflect thrombotic and thrombolytic potential, and the balance between these factors as it relates to incident stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA) and stroke/TIA in AF. METHODS: A Thrombotic Factor, derived from fibrinogen, plasmin-antiplasmin complex, factor VIII, D-dimer, and lipoprotein(a); and a Thrombolytic Factor, derived from plasminogen and oxidized phospholipids on plasminogen, were evaluated at baseline in 5,764 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants. We evaluated the association between these two factors representative of thrombotic and thrombolytic potential and incident stroke/TIA (n = 402), and AF-related stroke/TIA (n = 82) over a median of 13.9 and 3.7 years, respectively. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for medication use, cardiovascular risk factors and CHA2DS2-VASc score were utilized. Harrell's C-index was estimated to evaluate model performance. RESULTS: In models including both factors, Thrombotic Factor was positively while Thrombolytic Factor was inversely associated with incident stroke/TIA and AF-related stroke/TIA. Incorporating these factors along with the CHA2DS2-VASc in adjusted models resulted in a small improvement in risk prediction of incident stroke/TIA and AF-related stroke/TIA compared to models without the factors (C-index from 0.697 to 0.704, and from 0.657 to 0.675, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Composite biomarker factors, representative of the balance between thrombotic and thrombolytic propensity, provided an improvement in predicting stroke/TIA beyond CHA2DS2-VASc score.

Venous Thromboembolism Among People With HIV: Design, Implementation, and Findings of a Centralized Adjudication System in Clinical Care Sites Across the United States.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) are at increased risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We conducted this study to characterize VTE including provoking factors among PWH in the current treatment era. METHODS: We included PWH with VTE between 2010 and 2020 at 6 sites in the CFAR Network of Integrated Clinical Systems cohort. We ascertained for possible VTE using diagnosis, VTE-related imaging, and VTE-related procedure codes, followed by centralized adjudication of primary data by expert physician reviewers. We evaluated sensitivity and positive predictive value of VTE ascertainment approaches. VTEs were classified by type and anatomic location. Reviewers identified provoking factors such as hospitalizations, infections, and other potential predisposing factors such as smoking. RESULTS: We identified 557 PWH with adjudicated VTE: 239 (43%) had pulmonary embolism with or without deep venous thrombosis, and 318 (57%) had deep venous thrombosis alone. Ascertainment with clinical diagnoses alone missed 6% of VTEs identified with multiple ascertainment approaches. DVTs not associated with intravenous lines were most often in the proximal lower extremities. Among PWH with VTE, common provoking factors included recent hospitalization (n = 134, 42%), infection (n = 133, 42%), and immobilization/bed rest (n = 78, 25%). Only 57 (10%) PWH had no provoking factor identified. Smoking (46%), HIV viremia (27%), and injection drug use (22%) were also common. CONCLUSIONS: We conducted a robust adjudication process that demonstrated the benefits of multiple ascertainment approaches followed by adjudication. Provoked VTEs were more common than unprovoked events. Nontraditional and modifiable potential predisposing factors such as viremia and smoking were common.

Association of fractal dimension and other retinal vascular network parameters with cognitive performance and neuroimaging biomarkers: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

INTRODUCTION: Retinal vascular network changes may reflect the integrity of the cerebral microcirculation, and may be associated with cognitive impairment. METHODS: Associations of retinal vascular measures with cognitive function and MRI biomarkers were examined amongst Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) participants in North Carolina who had gradable retinal photographs at Exams 2 (2002 to 2004, n = 313) and 5 (2010 to 2012, n = 306), and detailed cognitive testing and MRI at Exam 6 (2016 to 2018). RESULTS: After adjustment for covariates and multiple comparisons, greater arteriolar fractal dimension (FD) at Exam 2 was associated with less isotropic free water of gray matter regions (ß = -0.0005, SE = 0.0024, p = 0.01) at Exam 6, while greater arteriolar FD at Exam 5 was associated with greater gray matter cortical volume (in mm3 , ß = 5458, SE = 20.17, p = 0.04) at Exam 6. CONCLUSION: Greater arteriolar FD, reflecting greater complexity of the branching pattern of the retinal arteries, is associated with MRI biomarkers indicative of less neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration.

Prevalence of Subclinical Atrial Fibrillation in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is common in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and is associated with poorer clinical outcomes. The prevalence of subclinical AF in patients with HFpEF remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether subclinical AF was more prevalent in individuals with HFpEF than in individuals without histories of heart failure (HF). METHODS: Patients with HFpEF with no prior diagnoses of AF were screened for subclinical AF, and the prevalence of subclinical AF was compared with that among control subjects without HF drawn from MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) who underwent the same electrocardiographic monitoring. Multivariable logistic regression was used to adjust for demographic and clinical comorbidities. RESULTS: Ninety patients with HFpEF and 1,230 MESA participants were included. Patients with HFpEF were younger (median age 69 years [Q1-Q3: 63-76 years] vs 72 years [Q1-Q3: 66-80 years]; P = 0.02), more obese (median body mass index 36 kg/m2 [Q1-Q3: 30-45 kg/m2] vs 27 kg/m2 [Q1-Q3: 24-30 kg/m2]; P < 0.001), and more likely to have diabetes (34% vs 21%; P = 0.01). The prevalence of subclinical AF was 8.9% in patients with HFpEF and 4.1% in non-HF participants. After multivariable adjustment for age, sex, race, body mass index, diabetes, smoking, and total analyzable time on electrocardiographic monitor, there was a significantly higher odds of subclinical AF in patients with HFpEF compared with MESA (OR: 3.01; 95% CI: 1.13-7.99; P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with HFpEF had a higher prevalence of subclinical AF than participants without HF from a community-based study. Screening for atrial arrhythmias may be appropriate among patients with HFpEF for timely initiation of thromboembolic prophylaxis and may identify individuals at greater risk for clinical decompensation.

Heart rate fragmentation and brain MRI markers of small vessel disease in MESA.

INTRODUCTION: Heart rate (HR) fragmentation indices quantify breakdown of HR regulation and are associated with atrial fibrillation and cognitive impairment. Their association with brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) markers of small vessel disease is unexplored. METHODS: In 606 stroke-free participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (mean age 67), HR fragmentation indices including percentage of inflection points (PIP) were derived from sleep study recordings. We examined PIP in relation to white matter hyperintensity (WMH) volume, total white matter fractional anisotropy (FA), and microbleeds from 3-Tesla brain MRI completed 7 years later. RESULTS: In adjusted analyses, higher PIP was associated with greater WMH volume (14% per standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2, 27%, P = 0.02) and lower WM FA (-0.09 SD per SD, 95% CI: -0.16, -0.01, P = 0.03). DISCUSSION: HR fragmentation was associated with small vessel disease. HR fragmentation can be measured automatically from ambulatory electrocardiogram devices and may be useful as a biomarker of vascular brain injury.