Eliciting cytotoxic T-lymphocyte responses from synthetic vectors containing one or two epitopes in a C57BL/6 mouse model using peptide-containing biodegradable microspheres and adjuvants.

We describe a vaccine delivery mechanism consisting of a synthetic, non-living vector of large d,l poly(lactic-co-glycolic) acid (PLGA) microspheres that carry specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) epitopes. We demonstrate in mice that it can be used to elicit substantial interferon gamma ELISPOT responses to more than one specific epitope in the same individual. Our data suggest that a superior adjuvant configuration for the formulation is to place a TLR-9 agonist CpG inside the microsphere and a TLR-4 agonist MPLA in the injectate solution. This finding contrasts with the observations of others. Our approach provides a means to elicit immune responses efficiently to select epitopes, which may be important for an effective vaccine against HIV.

Targeting of a CD8 T cell env epitope presented by HLA-B*5802 is associated with markers of HIV disease progression and lack of selection pressure.

In HIV-infected persons, certain HLA class I alleles are associated with effective control of viremia, while others are associated with rapid disease progression. Among the most divergent clinical outcomes are the relatively good prognosis in HLA-B*5801 expressing persons and poor prognosis with HLA-B*5802. These two alleles differ by only three amino acids in regions involved in HLA-peptide recognition. This study evaluated a cohort of over 1000 persons with chronic HIV clade C virus infection to determine whether clinical outcome differences associated with B*5801 (n = 93) and B*5802 ( n = 259) expression are associated with differences in HIV-1-specific CD8 (+) T cell responses. The overall breadth and magnitude of HIV-1-specific CD8(+) T cell responses were lower in persons expressing B*5802, and epitope presentation by B*5802 contributed significantly less to the overall response as compared to B*5801-restricted CD8 (+) T cells. Moreover, viral load in B*5802-positive persons was higher and CD4 cell counts lower when this allele contributed to the overall CD8 (+) T cell response, which was detected exclusively through a single epitope in Env. In addition, persons heterozygous for B*5802 compared to persons homozygous for other HLA-B alleles had significantly higher viral loads. Viral sequencing revealed strong selection pressure mediated through B*5801-restricted responses but not through B*5802. These data indicate that minor differences in HLA sequence can have a major impact on epitope recognition, and that selective targeting of Env through HLA-B*5802 is at least ineffectual if not actively adverse in the containment of viremia. These results provide experimental evidence that not all epitope-specific responses contribute to immune containment, a better understanding of which is essential to shed light on mechanisms involved in HIV disease progression.

Efficient approximations for learning phylogenetic HMM models from data.

MOTIVATION: We consider models useful for learning an evolutionary or phylogenetic tree from data consisting of DNA sequences corresponding to the leaves of the tree. In particular, we consider a general probabilistic model described in Siepel and Haussler that we call the phylogenetic-HMM model which generalizes the classical probabilistic models of Neyman and Felsenstein. Unfortunately, computing the likelihood of phylogenetic-HMM models is intractable. We consider several approximations for computing the likelihood of such models including an approximation introduced in Siepel and Haussler, loopy belief propagation and several variational methods. RESULTS: We demonstrate that, unlike the other approximations, variational methods are accurate and are guaranteed to lower bound the likelihood. In addition, we identify a particular variational approximation to be best-one in which the posterior distribution is variationally approximated using the classic Neyman-Felsenstein model. The application of our best approximation to data from the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator gene region across nine eutherian mammals reveals a CpG effect.

Probabilistic independence networks for hidden Markov probability models.

Graphical techniques for modeling the dependencies of random variables have been explored in a variety of different areas, including statistics, statistical physics, artificial intelligence, speech recognition, image processing, and genetics. Formalisms for manipulating these models have been developed relatively independently in these research communities. In this paper we explore hidden Markov models (HMMs) and related structures within the general framework of probabilistic independence networks (PINs). The paper presents a self-contained review of the basic principles of PINs. It is shown that the well-known forward-backward (F-B) and Viterbi algorithms for HMMs are special cases of more general inference algorithms for arbitrary PINs. Furthermore, the existence of inference and estimation algorithms for more general graphical models provides a set of analysis tools for HMM practitioners who wish to explore a richer class of HMM structures. Examples of relatively complex models to handle sensor fusion and coarticulation in speech recognition are introduced and treated within the graphical model framework to illustrate the advantages of the general approach.

Toward normative expert systems: Part II. Probability-based representations for efficient knowledge acquisition and inference.

We address practical issues concerning the construction and use of decision-theoretic or normative expert systems for diagnosis. In particular, we examine Pathfinder, a normative expert system that assists surgical pathologists with the diagnosis of lymph-node diseases, and discuss the representation of dependencies among pieces of evidence within this system. We describe the belief network, a graphical representation of probabilistic dependencies. We see how Pathfinder uses a belief network to construct differential diagnosis efficiently, even when there are dependencies among pieces of evidence. In addition, we introduce an extension of the belief-network representation called a similarity network, a tool for constructing large and complex belief networks. The representation allows a user to construct independent belief networks for subsets of a given domain. A valid belief network for the entire domain can then be constructed from the individual belief networks. We also introduce the partition, a graphical representation that facilitates the assessment of probabilities associated with a belief network. We show that the similarity-network and partition representations made practical the construction of Pathfinder.

Toward normative expert systems: Part I. The Pathfinder project.

Pathfinder is an expert system that assists surgical pathologists with the diagnosis of lymph-node diseases. The program is one of a growing number of normative expert systems that use probability and decision theory to acquire, represent, manipulate, and explain uncertain medical knowledge. In this article, we describe Pathfinder and our research in uncertain-reasoning paradigms that was stimulated by the development of the program. We discuss limitations with early decision-theoretic methods for reasoning under uncertainty and our initial attempts to use non-decision-theoretic methods. Then, we describe experimental and theoretical results that directed us to return to reasoning methods based in probability and decision theory.

An evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of Pathfinder.

We present an evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy of Pathfinder, an expert system that assists pathologists with the diagnosis of lymph node diseases. We evaluate two versions of the system using both informal and decision-theoretic metrics of performance. In one version of Pathfinder, we assume incorrectly that all observations are conditionally independent. In the other version, we use a belief network to represent accurately the probabilistic dependencies among the observations. In both versions, we make the assumption--reasonable for this domain--that diseases are mutually exclusive and exhaustive. The results of the study show that (1) it is cost effective to represent probabilistic dependencies among observations in the lymph node domain, and (2) the diagnostic accuracy of the more complex version of Pathfinder is at least as good as that of the Pathfinder expert. In addition, the study illustrates how informal and decision-theoretic metrics for performance complement one another.

Probabilistic diagnosis using a reformulation of the INTERNIST-1/QMR knowledge base. I. The probabilistic model and inference algorithms.

In Part I of this two-part series, we report the design of a probabilistic reformulation of the Quick Medical Reference (QMR) diagnostic decision-support tool. We describe a two-level multiply connected belief-network representation of the QMR knowledge base of internal medicine. In the belief-network representation of the QMR knowledge base, we use probabilities derived from the QMR disease profiles, from QMR imports of findings, and from National Center for Health Statistics hospital-discharge statistics. We use a stochastic simulation algorithm for inference on the belief network. This algorithm computes estimates of the posterior marginal probabilities of diseases given a set of findings. In Part II of the series, we compare the performance of QMR to that of our probabilistic system on cases abstracted from continuing medical education materials from Scientific American Medicine. In addition, we analyze empirically several components of the probabilistic model and simulation algorithm.

Probabilistic diagnosis using a reformulation of the INTERNIST-1/QMR knowledge base. II. Evaluation of diagnostic performance.

We have developed a probabilistic reformulation of the Quick Medical Reference (QMR) system. In Part I of this two-part series, we described a two-level, multiply connected belief-network representation of the QMR knowledge base and a simulation algorithm to perform probabilistic inference on the reformulated knowledge base. In Part II of this series, we report on an evaluation of the probabilistic QMR, in which we compare the performance of QMR to that of our probabilistic system on cases abstracted from continuing medical education materials from Scientific American Medicine. In addition, we analyze empirically several components of the probabilistic model and simulation algorithm.

Integrated expert systems and videodisc in surgical pathology: an overview.

We present an overview of our 6-year experience in the design of expert systems for anatomic pathology. Our practical goal is to help practicing pathologists with learning, teaching, and the task of diagnosis by providing them with dynamic expert knowledge by means of a personal computer. This project could only be undertaken by first addressing a scientific goal: to characterize the problem-solving strategies that expert pathologists use in making a diagnosis and to state them in the logical terms of computer science. Our approach has been to build systems first for experimentation and then for use. The result of our work is an integrated computer-based approach that handles expert knowledge as formal relationships and morphologic images and that uses a number of logical strategies to provide multiple perspectives on diagnostic tasks. Configured as a pathologist's workstation, this approach can be expected to enhance the performance of trained general pathologists and pathologists in training. Lymph node pathology has been used as the prototype domain for this research, but care has been taken to seek a generalized authoring and inference structure that can be applied to other areas of pathology by changing the contents but not the structure itself. Excursions into various surgical pathology specialties suggest that the ways the system is constructed and exercised is fundamentally robust. Such computer-based expert systems can be expected to generate a new standard in the practice of pathology--based on the "gold standard" of classical morphology, but including the coordinated use of new methods from immunology and molecular biology in a multidisciplinary approach to diagnosis when these techniques are relevant. The benefits from this technology can be expected to be widespread with the evolution, refinement, and diffusion of these systems.