ABSTRACT
BackgroundDecisions about the continued need for control measures and the effect of introducing COVID-19 vaccinations rely on accurate and population-based data on SARS-CoV-2 positivity and risk factors for testing positive. MethodsIn this interrupted time series of population-based nationwide cross-sectional studies, data from nasopharyngeal testing and questionnaires were used to estimate the SARS-CoV-2 RNA prevalence and factors associated with test positivity over the 1st year of the COVID-19 epidemic. The study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN10182320. ResultsBetween April 23, 2020 and February 2, 2021, results were available from 34,915 individuals and 27,870 samples from 11 consecutive studies. The percentage of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 decreased from 0.27% (95% CI 0.10% - 0.59%) in April to 0.04% (95% CI 0.00% - 0.22%) by the end of May and remained very low (0.01%, 95% CI 0.00% - 0.17%) until the end of August, followed by an increase since November (0.37%, 95% CI 0.18% - 0.68%) that escalated to 2.69% (95% CI 2.08% - 2.69%) in January 2021. In addition to substantial change in time, an increasing number of household members (for one additional OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.02-1.29), reporting current symptoms of COVID-19 (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.59-3.09), and completing questionnaire in the Russian language (OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.15-2.99) were associated with increased odds for SARS-CoV-2 RNA positivity. ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 population prevalence needs to be carefully monitored as vaccine programmes are rolled out in order to inform containment decisions. Strengths and limitations of this studyO_LIOur study relies upon nation-wide and population-based data on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, and presents changes in prevalence over the whole 1st year of the Covid-19 epidemic. C_LIO_LIOur analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infection risk factors is not limited to notification or health care-based case data. C_LIO_LISelection bias may have been introduced as a result of low response rate. The direction of bias is unclear, but most likely operates rather uniformly over the period of observation, though this presents less of a threat to the SARS-CoV-2 prevalence trend analysis. C_LIO_LIOur data could be used to adequately project the future course of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and the effect of control measures. C_LI
ABSTRACT
Information is the most potent protective weapon we have to combat a pandemic, at both the individual and global level. For individuals, information can help us make personal decisions and provide a sense of security. For the global community, information can inform policy decisions and offer critical insights into the epidemic of COVID-19 disease. Fully leveraging the power of information, however, requires large amounts of data and access to it. To achieve this, we are making steps to form an international consortium, Coronavirus Census Collective (CCC, coronaviruscensuscollective.org), that will serve as a hub for integrating information from multiple data sources that can be utilized to understand, monitor, predict, and combat global pandemics. These sources may include self-reported health status through surveys (including mobile apps), results of diagnostic laboratory tests, and other static and real-time geospatial data. This collective effort to track and share information will be invaluable in predicting hotspots of disease outbreak, identifying which factors control the rate of spreading, informing immediate policy decisions, evaluating the effectiveness of measures taken by health organizations on pandemic control, and providing critical insight on the etiology of COVID-19. It will also help individuals stay informed on this rapidly evolving situation and contribute to other global efforts to slow the spread of disease. In the past few weeks, several initiatives across the globe have surfaced to use daily self-reported symptoms as a means to track disease spread, predict outbreak locations, guide population measures and help in the allocation of healthcare resources. The aim of this paper is to put out a call to standardize these efforts and spark a collaborative effort to maximize the global gain while protecting participant privacy.
