A prediction of the renal and cardiovascular efficacy of aliskiren in ALTITUDE using short-term changes in multiple risk markers.

INTRODUCTION: We recently developed and validated in existing trials a novel algorithm (PRE score) to predict long-term drug efficacy based on short-term (month-6) drug-induced changes in multiple risk markers. To show the value of the PRE score for ongoing and planned clinical trials, we here report the predicted long-term cardio-renal efficacy of aliskiren in type 2 diabetes, which was investigated in the ALTITUDE trial, but unknown at the time this study was conducted. METHODS: We established the relation between multiple risk markers and cardio-renal endpoints (as defined in ALTITUDE) using a background database from past clinical trials. The short-term effect of aliskiren on multiple risk markers was taken from the AVOID trial. A PRE score was developed by multivariate Cox analysis in the background population and was then applied to the baseline and month-6 measurements of the aliskiren treatment arm of the AVOID trial to predict cardio-renal risk. The net risk difference at these time-points, after correction for placebo effects, was taken to indicate the estimated long-term cardio-renal risk change. RESULTS: Based on the PRE score, we predicted that aliskiren treatment in ALTITUDE would confer a relative risk change of -7.9% (95% CI -2.5 to -13.4) for the cardio-renal endpoint, a risk change of -5.1% (-1.2 to -9.0) for the CV endpoint and a non-significant risk change of -19.9% (-42.1 to +2.1) for the renal endpoint. CONCLUSIONS: PRE score estimations suggested that aliskiren has only a marginal additive protective effect on cardio-renal endpoints. These predictions were validated by the results of the ALTITUDE trial, confirming the potential of the PRE score to prospectively predict drug efficacy on cardio-renal outcomes.

Increased serum potassium affects renal outcomes: a post hoc analysis of the Reduction of Endpoints in NIDDM with the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) trial.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To assess the effect of an angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) on serum potassium and the effect of a serum potassium change on renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and nephropathy. METHODS: We performed a post hoc analysis in patients with type 2 diabetes participating in the Reduction of Endpoints in NIDDM with the Angiotensin II Antagonist Losartan (RENAAL) study. Renal outcomes were defined as a composite of doubling of serum creatinine or end-stage renal disease. RESULTS: At month 6, 259 (38.4%) and 73 (10.8%) patients in the losartan group and 151 (22.8%) and 34 (5.1%) patients in the placebo group had serum potassium ≥5.0 mmol/l and ≥5.5 mmol/l, (p < 0.001), respectively. Losartan was an independent predictor for serum potassium ≥5.0 mmol/l at month 6 (OR 2.8; 95% CI 2.0-3.9). Serum potassium at month 6 ≥ 5.0 mmol/l was in turn associated with increased risk for renal events (HR 1.22; 95% CI 1.00-1.50), independent of other risk factors. Adjustment of the overall treatment effects for serum potassium augmented losartan's renoprotective effect from 21% (6-34%) to 35% (20-48%), suggesting that the renoprotective effects of losartan are offset by its effect on serum potassium. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this study, we found that treatment with the ARB losartan is associated with a high risk of increased serum potassium levels, which is in turn associated with an increased risk of renal outcomes in patients with diabetes and nephropathy. Whether additional management of high serum potassium would further increase the renal protective properties of losartan is an important clinical question.