[Bed capacity management in times of the COVID-19 pandemic : A simulation-based prognosis of normal and intensive care beds using the descriptive data of the University Hospital Augsburg]. / Bettenkapazitätssteuerung in Zeiten der COVID-19-Pandemie : Eine simulationsbasierte Prognose der Normal- und Intensivstationsbetten anhand der deskriptiven Daten des Universitätsklinikums Augsburg.

BACKGROUND: Following the regional outbreak in China, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread all over the world, presenting the healthcare systems with huge challenges worldwide. In Germany the coronavirus diseases 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has resulted in a slowly growing demand for health care with a sudden occurrence of regional hotspots. This leads to an unpredictable situation for many hospitals, leaving the question of how many bed resources are needed to cope with the surge of COVID-19 patients. OBJECTIVE: In this study we created a simulation-based prognostic tool that provides the management of the University Hospital of Augsburg and the civil protection services with the necessary information to plan and guide the disaster response to the ongoing pandemic. Especially the number of beds needed on isolation wards and intensive care units (ICU) are the biggest concerns. The focus should lie not only on the confirmed cases as the patients with suspected COVID-19 are in need of the same resources. MATERIAL AND METHODS: For the input we used the latest information provided by governmental institutions about the spreading of the disease, with a special focus on the growth rate of the cumulative number of cases. Due to the dynamics of the current situation, these data can be highly variable. To minimize the influence of this variance, we designed distribution functions for the parameters growth rate, length of stay in hospital and the proportion of infected people who need to be hospitalized in our area of responsibility. Using this input, we started a Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 runs to predict the range of the number of hospital beds needed within the coming days and compared it with the available resources. RESULTS: Since 2 February 2020 a total of 306 patients were treated with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 at this university hospital. Of these 84 needed treatment on the ICU. With the help of several simulation-based forecasts, the required ICU and normal bed capacity at Augsburg University Hospital and the Augsburg ambulance service in the period from 28 March 2020 to 8 June 2020 could be predicted with a high degree of reliability. Simulations that were run before the impact of the restrictions in daily life showed that we would have run out of ICU bed capacity within approximately 1 month. CONCLUSION: Our simulation-based prognosis of the health care capacities needed helps the management of the hospital and the civil protection service to make reasonable decisions and adapt the disaster response to the realistic needs. At the same time the forecasts create the possibility to plan the strategic response days and weeks in advance. The tool presented in this study is, as far as we know, the only one accounting not only for confirmed COVID-19 cases but also for suspected COVID-19 patients. Additionally, the few input parameters used are easy to access and can be easily adapted to other healthcare systems.

Measurement of joint space width and erosion size.

Measurement of radiographic abnormalities in metric units has been reported by several investigators during the last 15 years. Measurement of joint space in large joints has been employed in a few trials to evaluate therapy in osteoarthritis. Measurement of joint space width in small joints has been reported by several investigators but has not yet found a place in clinical trials in rheumatoid arthritis or osteoarthritis. We review methods for measuring joint space width in finger, toe, and wrist joints; special attention is given to how the joint edges are found, the method used to measure distance between joint margins, size of an area of the sampled joint, and reproducibility of measurements. Methods for measurement of erosion size, which have had less attention, are briefly discussed.

Education in end-of-life care: bridging disciplinary and institutional boundaries.

This paper describes the development of an interdisciplinary, interinstitutional seminar in palliative care for South Dakota students in medicine, nursing, pharmacy, chaplaincy, and social work. Student outcomes from six seminars conducted during 2001-2004 are reported, and recommendations for future educational efforts are outlined.

Epididymo-orchitis following intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin therapy.

OBJECTIVE: To describe a case of epididymo-orchitis that developed four years after treatment with intravesical bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) and to review the incidence of this adverse effect. DATA SOURCES: Information about the patient was obtained from the medical chart. A MEDLINE search of English-language literature (from January 1976 to April 1999) was conducted. STUDY SELECTION: All case reports of BCG-related epididymo-orchitis were evaluated. Review articles describing complications of BCG therapy for bladder cancer and the prevention and treatment of these complications were reviewed. DATA EXTRACTION: Studies were evaluated for reports of BCG-related epididymo-orchitis and its treatment. DATA SYNTHESIS: Our case report is compared with others reported in the literature. The incidence of BCG-associated epididymoorchitis is rare. CONCLUSIONS: Epididymo-orchitis should be considered as a late complication of BCG therapy for bladder cancer. Proper patient selection may help decrease the risk of complications from BCG therapy.

A new teaching model to prolong breastfeeding among Latinos.

Latino women in Salt Lake City, Utah, have some of the lowest breastfeeding rates in the state. In an attempt to prolong breastfeeding duration in this population, the authors designed a new class to be taught by certified WIC (Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children) personnel to pregnant Spanish-speaking participants. The class was designed after a literature review and onsite ethnographic research. The term la cuarentena del bebé was introduced to signify the recommended 40 days when mothers should exclusively breastfeed, avoiding bottles, pacifiers, and supplementation. As part of the teaching model, class participants prepare an infant-feeding plan. Preliminary interviews show that WIC participants and staff view the new approach as an improvement. A randomized controlled trial is under way to evaluate the effectiveness of the class.

Treatment of postherpetic neuralgia.

OBJECTIVE: To review treatment options for postherpetic neuralgia (PHN). DATA SOURCES: Clinical literature selected by the authors accessed via MEDLINE. Search terms included postherpetic neuralgia, capsaicin, antidepressants, anticonvulsants, and lidocaine. STUDY SELECTION: Controlled trials relevant to PHN. DATA SYNTHESIS: Traditional analgesics offer little benefit for the treatment of PHN. The best results for pain relief have come from capsaicin and tricyclic antidepressants. Anticonvulsants have also been used, although the number of studies evaluating this is limited. More invasive therapies, such as transcutaneous electrical nerve stimulation and nerve blocks, can be considered if other therapies fail. CONCLUSION: Early diagnosis and treatment of herpes zoster may offer patients the best chance of preventing the development of PHN. However, if PHN does develop, the patient should seek treatment early for the best chance of pain relief.

Factors that influence the decision to receive treatment for proliferative diabetic retinopathy.

Educational messages aimed at health professionals have stressed the importance of regular eye examinations for people with diabetes and the value of early treatment. To investigate whether the messages need to be expanded or tailored in a specific way, we asked people with diabetes (N = 37) to describe their reactions to the diagnosis of proliferative diabetic retinopathy and the factors that influenced their decision to seek treatment. The findings reaffirm the importance of the physician's recommendation in pursuing treatment. Furthermore, a constructive response (eg, "knew it had to be taken care of") to the diagnosis was associated with prior knowledge of the consequences of proliferative diabetic retinopathy. Minimal racial and gender differences were observed. White women reported being influenced by the experiences of others, and African Americans reported being influenced by the diabetes educator. These findings emphasize the importance of providing patient education not only following a diagnosis but also in anticipation of probable complications.

Peer counselor program increases breastfeeding rates in Utah Native American WIC population.

Lack of breastfeeding promotion and support hinder successful breastfeeding. In this study, a breastfeeding peer counselor program improved both the initiation rate and duration of breastfeeding up to three months postpartum among Native American WIC participants. Trained peer counselors contacted subjects prenatally, and at one, two, and four to six weeks postpartum. Breastfeeding rates for the experimental group were compared to historical controls. Women in the peer counselor group who had complete data for three months (n = 41) had a higher rate of breastfeeding than the control group (n = 67) at initiation (84 percent vs. 70 percent; p = 0.05) and at three months postpartum (49 percent vs. 36 percent; p = 0.08).

Intraoperative end-tidal carbon dioxide values and derived calculations correlated with outcome: prognosis and capnography.

OBJECTIVE: To determine how much information concerning resuscitation and outcome is provided by the end-tidal CO2 and derived variables obtained during surgery. DESIGN: Retrospective chart review. SETTING: Emergency hospital operating room. PATIENTS: One hundred critically ill or injured patients requiring major surgery and having a mortality rate of 41%. INTERVENTIONS: Standard intraoperative monitoring, including continuous capnography, plus arterial blood gas analyses every 1 to 1.5 hrs during surgery. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: There was only a fair correlation between the PaCO2 and end-tidal CO2 (r2 = .14). The mortality rates in these patients were highest in those patients who had the lowest end-tidal CO2 values, the highest arterial to end-tidal CO2 differences, and the highest estimated alveolar deadspace fraction. A persistent end-tidal CO2 of < or = 28 torr (< or = 3.8 kPa) was associated with a mortality rate of 55% (vs. 17% in those patients with a higher end-tidal CO2). The mortality rate was also increased in patients with a persistent arterial to end-tidal CO2 difference of > or = 8 torr (> or = 1.1 kPa) (58% vs. 23%). CONCLUSIONS: End-tidal CO2 and derived values should be monitored closely in critically ill or injured patients. Efforts should be made--by increasing cardiac output and core temperature and by adjusting ventilation as needed--to maintain the end-tidal CO2 at > or = 29 torr (> or = 3.9 kPa) and the arterial to end-tidal CO2 difference at < or = 7 torr (< or = 1.0 kPa).

End-diastolic volume versus pulmonary artery wedge pressure in evaluating cardiac preload in trauma patients.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the relative accuracy of right ventricular end-diastolic volume index (RVEDVI) and pulmonary artery wedge pressure (PAWP) for determining cardiac preload. METHODS: A modified pulmonary artery catheter was used to determine RVEDVI, PAWP, and CI 238 times in 32 trauma patients. RESULTS: The initial mean values included cardiac index (CI) = 3.4 +/- 1.3 L/min/m2, PAWP = 14.8 +/- 6.6 mm Hg, and RVEDVI = 99 +/- 40 mL/m2. Cardiac index correlated better with RVEDVI (r = 0.6440; p < 0.001) than with PAWP (r = 0.1068) or CVP (r = 0.1604). In 84 studies in 19 patients, the PAWP was high (19+ mm Hg) in spite of an RVEDVI that was low (< 90 mL/m2) in 22 (26%) or mid-range (90-140 mL/m2) in 49 (58%) of these. In addition, in 12 studies a high RVEDVI (> 140 mL/m2) existed with a relatively low PAWP (< 12 mm Hg). Thus, in 83 (35%) of the studies, PAWP provided information different from the RVEDVI. Of 65 instances in which preload was increased, CI "responded" (> or = 20%) in 26 (40%). The incidence of a response was not affected by the PAWP; however, responses with a RVEDVI of < 90, 90-140, or > 140 mL/m2 were 64%, 27%, and 0 (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The RVEDVI more accurately predicted preload recruitable increases in CI than did the PAWP.

Evidence from paleosols for the geological antiquity of rain forest.

Kaolinitic claystones in Paleozoic paleokarst underlying the Middle Pennsylvanian Fort Scott Limestone near Drake, Missouri, contain abundant fossil root traces. These include a surficial root mat as well as stout, woody, deeply penetrating root traces: a rooting pattern similar to that under rain forest. Also similar to soils of rain forest is the deeply weathered clay of the paleosol, in which minimal amounts of nutrient bases remain. Forest communities adapted to oligotrophic clayey substrates in humid climates existed at least 305 million years ago.