Heterogeneous patterns of heterozygosity loss in isolated populations of the threatened eastern barred bandicoot (Perameles gunnii).

Identifying and analysing isolated populations is critical for conservation. Isolation can make populations vulnerable to local extinction due to increased genetic drift and inbreeding, both of which should leave imprints of decreased genome-wide heterozygosity. While decreases in heterozygosity among populations are frequently investigated, fewer studies have analysed how heterozygosity varies among individuals, including whether heterozygosity varies geographically along lines of discrete population structure or with continuous patterns analogous to isolation by distance. Here we explore geographical patterns of differentiation and individual heterozygosity in the threatened eastern barred bandicoot (Perameles gunnii) in Tasmania, Australia, using genomic data from 85 samples collected between 2008 and 2011. Our analyses identified two isolated demes undergoing significant genetic drift, and several areas of fine-scale differentiation across Tasmania. We observed discrete genetic structures across geographical barriers and continuous patterns of isolation by distance, with little evidence of recent or historical migration. Using a recently developed analytical pipeline for estimating autosomal heterozygosity, we found individual heterozygosities varied within demes by up to a factor of two, and demes with low-heterozygosity individuals also still contained those with high heterozygosity. Spatial interpolation of heterozygosity scores clarified these patterns and identified the isolated Tasman Peninsula as a location where low-heterozygosity individuals were more common than elsewhere. Our results provide novel insights into the relationship between isolation-driven genetic structure and local heterozygosity patterns. These may help improve translocation efforts, by identifying populations in need of assistance, and by providing an individualised metric for identifying source animals for translocation.

A weighted partial likelihood approach for zero-truncated models.

Zero-truncated data arises in various disciplines where counts are observed but the zero count category cannot be observed during sampling. Maximum likelihood estimation can be used to model these data; however, due to its nonstandard form it cannot be easily implemented using well-known software packages, and additional programming is often required. Motivated by the Rao-Blackwell theorem, we develop a weighted partial likelihood approach to estimate model parameters for zero-truncated binomial and Poisson data. The resulting estimating function is equivalent to a weighted score function for standard count data models, and allows for applying readily available software. We evaluate the efficiency for this new approach and show that it performs almost as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The weighted partial likelihood approach is then extended to regression modelling and variable selection. We examine the performance of the proposed methods through simulation and present two case studies using real data.

Biodiversity responds to increasing climatic extremes in a biome-specific manner.

An unprecedented rate of global environmental change is predicted for the next century. The response to this change by ecosystems around the world is highly uncertain. To address this uncertainty, it is critical to understand the potential drivers and mechanisms of change in order to develop more reliable predictions. Australia's Long Term Ecological Research Network (LTERN) has brought together some of the longest running (10-60years) continuous environmental monitoring programs in the southern hemisphere. Here, we compare climatic variables recorded at five LTERN plot network sites during their period of operation and place them into the context of long-term climatic trends. Then, using our unique Australian long-term datasets (total 117 survey years across four biomes), we synthesize results from a series of case studies to test two hypotheses: 1) extreme weather events for each plot network have increased over the last decade, and; 2) trends in biodiversity will be associated with recent climate change, either directly or indirectly through climate-mediated disturbance (wildfire) responses. We examined the biodiversity responses to environmental change for evidence of non-linear behavior. In line with hypothesis 1), an increase in extreme climate events occurred within the last decade for each plot network. For hypothesis 2), climate, wildfire, or both were correlated with biodiversity responses at each plot network, but there was no evidence of non-linear change. However, the influence of climate or fire was context-specific. Biodiversity responded to recent climate change either directly or indirectly as a consequence of changes in fire regimes or climate-mediated fire responses. A national long-term monitoring framework allowed us to find contrasting species abundance or community responses to climate and disturbance across four of the major biomes of Australia, highlighting the need to establish and resource long-term monitoring programs across representative ecosystem types, which are likely to show context-specific responses.

Genetic rescue increases fitness and aids rapid recovery of an endangered marsupial population.

Genetic rescue has now been attempted in several threatened species, but the contribution of genetics per se to any increase in population health can be hard to identify. Rescue is expected to be particularly useful when individuals are introduced into small isolated populations with low levels of genetic variation. Here we consider such a situation by documenting genetic rescue in the mountain pygmy possum, Burramys parvus. Rapid population recovery occurred in the target population after the introduction of a small number of males from a large genetically diverged population. Initial hybrid fitness was more than two-fold higher than non-hybrids; hybrid animals had a larger body size, and female hybrids produced more pouch young and lived longer. Genetic rescue likely contributed to the largest population size ever being recorded at this site. These data point to genetic rescue as being a potentially useful option for the recovery of small threatened populations.

Optimal allocation of conservation resources to species that may be extinct.

Statements of extinction will always be uncertain because of imperfect detection of species in the wild. Two errors can be made when declaring a species extinct. Extinction can be declared prematurely, with a resulting loss of protection and management intervention. Alternatively, limited conservation resources can be wasted attempting to protect a species that no longer exists. Rather than setting an arbitrary level of certainty at which to declare extinction, we argue that the decision must trade off the expected costs of both errors. Optimal decisions depend on the cost of continued intervention, the probability the species is extant, and the estimated value of management (the benefit of management times the value of the species). We illustrated our approach with three examples: the Dodo (Raphus cucullatus), the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (U.S. subspecies Campephilus principalis principalis), and the mountain pygmy-possum (Burramys parvus). The dodo was extremely unlikely to be extant, so managing and monitoring for it today would not be cost-effective unless the value of management was extremely high. The probability the Ivory-billed woodpecker is extant depended on whether recent controversial sightings were accepted. Without the recent controversial sightings, it was optimal to declare extinction of the species in 1965 at the latest. Accepting the recent controversial sightings, it was optimal to continue monitoring and managing until 2032 at the latest. The mountain pygmy-possum is currently extant, with a rapidly declining sighting rate. It was optimal to conduct as many as 66 surveys without sighting before declaring the species extinct. The probability of persistence remained high even after many surveys without sighting because it was difficult to determine whether the species was extinct or undetected. If the value of management is high enough, continued intervention can be cost-effective even if the species is likely to be extinct.