Individual and combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on catchment runoff in Southeast Queensland, Australia.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and land-use change is of critical importance, particularly for urbanized catchments. In this study, a novel framework was used to examine and quantify these impacts on the runoff in six catchments in Southeast Queensland, Australia. For each catchment, temporal variations in impervious areas were derived from six satellite images using a sub-pixel classification technique and incorporated into the SIMHYD hydrological model. This model was satisfactorily calibrated and validated with daily runoff observations (0.63 ≤ Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient ≤ 0.94, percent bias ≤ ±18 %) and was used to produce baseline runoff for 1986-2005 in these six catchments. The projected population increase was used to predict future imperviousness based on the linear relationship between the two. The projected rainfall and evapotranspiration were derived from the ensemble means of the eight general circulation models. Catchment runoff was projected under two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5), three urbanization scenarios (low, medium, and high), and six combined scenarios for two future periods (2026-2045 and 2046-2065). Comparing with the baseline, it was found that (1) climate change alone would lead to a -3.8 % to -17.6 % reduction in runoff among the six catchments, for all scenarios and both future periods; (2) a 11.8 % to 78 % increase in runoff was projected under the three urbanization scenarios, and (3) a decrease in runoff due to climate change would moderate the increase in runoff caused by urbanization. For example, the combined effect would be a 54 % increase in runoff, with a -17.2 % decrease due to climate change and 78 % increase due to urbanization. Overall, runoff in the six catchments may be significantly affected by urban expansion. From this study, decision makers could gain a better understanding of the relative importance of the effects of climate and land-use change, which can be applied when developing future long-term water management plans at the catchment scale.

Impacts of atmospheric stilling and climate warming on cyanobacterial blooms: An individual-based modelling approach.

Harmful algal blooms of the freshwater cyanobacteria genus Microcystis are a global problem and are expected to intensify with climate change. In studies of climate change impacts on Microcystis blooms, atmospheric stilling has not been considered. Stilling is expected to occur in some regions of the world with climate warming, and it will affect lake stratification regimes. We tested if stilling could affect water column Microcystis distributions using a novel individual-based model (IBM). Using the IBM coupled to a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, we assessed responses of colonial Microcystis biomass to wind speed decrease and air temperature increase projected under a future climate. The IBM altered Microcystis colony size using relationships with turbulence from the literature, and included light, temperature, and nutrient effects on Microcystis growth using input data from a shallow urban lake. The model results show that dynamic variations in colony size are critical for accurate prediction of cyanobacterial bloom development and decay. Colony size (mean and variability) increased more than six-fold for a 20% decrease in wind speed compared with a 2 °C increase in air temperature. Our results suggest that atmospheric stilling needs to be included in projections of changes in the frequency, distribution and magnitude of blooms of buoyant, colony-forming cyanobacteria under climate change.

Individual-based modelling of cyanobacteria blooms: Physical and physiological processes.

Lakes and reservoirs throughout the world are increasingly adversely affected by cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs). The development and spatiotemporal distributions of blooms are governed by complex physical mixing and transport processes that interact with physiological processes affecting the growth and loss of bloom-forming species. Individual-based models (IBMs) can provide a valuable tool for exploring and integrating some of these processes. Here we contend that the advantages of IBMs have not been fully exploited. The main reasons for the lack of progress in mainstreaming IBMs in numerical modelling are their complexity and high computational demand. In this review, we identify gaps and challenges in the use of IBMs for modelling CyanoHABs and provide an overview of the processes that should be considered for simulating the spatial and temporal distributions of cyanobacteria. Notably, important processes affecting cyanobacteria distributions, in particular their vertical passive movement, have not been considered in many existing lake ecosystem models. We identify the following research gaps that should be addressed in future studies that use IBMs: 1) effects of vertical movement and physiological processes relevant to cyanobacteria growth and accumulations, 2) effects and feedbacks of CyanoHABs on their environment; 3) inter and intra-specific competition of cyanobacteria species for nutrients and light; 4) use of high resolved temporal-spatial data for calibration and verification targets for IBMs; and 5) climate change impacts on the frequency, intensity and duration of CyanoHABs. IBMs are well adapted to incorporate these processes and should be considered as the next generation of models for simulating CyanoHABs.

An Improved Modelling Approach for the Comprehensive Study of Direct Contact Membrane Distillation.

Direct Contact Membrane Distillation (DCMD) is a promising and feasible technology for water desalination. Most of the models used to simulate DCMD are one-dimensional and/or use a linear function of vapour pressure which relies on experimentally determined parameters. In this study, the model of DCMD using Nusselt correlations was improved by coupling the continuity, momentum, and energy equations to better capture the downstream alteration of flow field properties. A logarithmic function of vapour pressure, which is independent from experiments, was used. This allowed us to analyse DCMD with different membrane properties. The results of our developed model were in good agreement with the DCMD experimental results, with less than 7% deviation. System performance metrics, including water flux, temperature, and concentration polarisation coefficient and thermal efficiency, were analysed by varying inlet feed and permeate temperature, inlet velocity, inlet feed concentration, channel length. In addition, twenty-two commercial membranes were analysed to obtain a real vision on the influence of membrane characteristics on system performance metrics. The results showed that the feed temperature had the most significant effect on water flux and thermal efficiency. The increased feed temperature enhanced the water flux and thermal efficiency; however, it caused more concentration and temperature polarisation. On the other hand, the increased inlet velocity was found to provide increased water flux and reduced temperature and concertation polarisation as well. It was also found that the membrane properties, especially thickness and porosity, can affect the DCMD performance significantly. A two-fold increase of feed temperature increased the water flux and thermal efficiency, 10-fold and 27%, respectively; however, it caused an increase in temperature and concertation polarisation, at 48% and 34%, respectively. By increasing Reynolds number from 80 to 1600, the water flux, CPC, and TPC enhanced by 2.3-fold, 2%, and 21%, respectively. The increased feed concentration from 0 to 250 [g/L] caused a 26% reduction in water flux. To capture the downstream alteration of flow properties, it was shown that the ratio of inlet value to outlet value of system performance metrics decreased significantly throughout the module. Therefore, improvement over the conventional model is undeniable, as the new model can assist in achieving optimal operation conditions.

Hydrodynamic modelling of a flood-prone tidal river using the 1D model MIKE HYDRO River: calibration and sensitivity analysis.

Hydrodynamic modelling is a powerful tool to gain understanding of river conditions. However, as widely known, models vary in terms of how they respond to changes and uncertainty in their input parameters. A hydrodynamic river model (MIKE HYDRO River) was developed and calibrated for a flood-prone tidal river located in South East Queensland, Australia. The model was calibrated using Manning's roughness coefficient for the normal dry and flood periods. The model performance was assessed by comparing observed and simulated water level, and estimating performance indices. Results indicated a satisfactory agreement between the observed and simulated results. The hydrodynamic modelling results revealed that the calibrated Manning's roughness coefficient ranged between 0.011 and 0.013. The impacts of tidal variation at the river mouth and the river discharge from upstream are the major driving force for the hydrodynamic process. To investigate the impacts of the boundary conditions, a new sensitivity analysis approach, based on adding stochastic terms (random noise) to the time series of boundary conditions, was conducted. The main purpose of such new sensitivity analysis was to impose changes in magnitude and time of boundary conditions randomly, which is more similar to the real and natural water level variations compared to impose constant changes of water level. In this new approach, the possible number of variations in simulated results was separately evaluated for both downstream and upstream boundaries under 5%, 10%, and 15% perturbation. The sensitivity analysis results revealed that in the river under study, the middle parts of the river were shown to be more sensitive to downstream boundary condition as maximum water level variations can reach 8%, 12%, and 15% under 5%, 10%, and 15% changes in the downstream boundary, respectively. The outcomes of the present paper will benefit future modelling efforts through provision of a robust tool to enable prediction of water levels at ungauged points of the river under various scenarios of flooding and climate change for the purpose of city planning and decision-making.

Review of climate change impacts on predicted river streamflow in tropical rivers.

Tropical regions are characterized by hydrological extreme events, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. Therefore, quantifying the extent to which climate change may damage a hydrological system becomes crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the findings from previous research on projected impacts of climate change on hydrological systems located in regions bounded by the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. It intends to provide an in-depth understanding of the climatic conditions, applied approaches, climate change impacts on future streamflow, and measures to reduce prediction uncertainty in the tropics. The review revealed that there is a significant variation in the magnitude of climate change impacts on streamflow in the tropics. The reason for the inconsistent trend prediction is that projections are heavily dependent on the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, climate model structural differences, and uncertainty of downscaling methods and hydrological models. Therefore, to minimize the uncertainty and maximize confidence in streamflow projections, it is essential to apply multi-member model ensembles and to clarify the adaptation strategy (coping, adjusting, or transforming).