Lives saved by public health restrictions over the Victorian COVID-19 Delta variant epidemic wave, Aug-Nov 2021.

BACKGROUND: Prior to mid-2021, Australia's approach to COVID-19 was to eliminate community transmission. However, between August-November 2021, the state of Victoria, Australia, experienced an outbreak of the Delta variant that continued to grow despite extensive lockdowns and public health measures in place. While these public health restrictions were ultimately unable to stop community transmission, they likely had a major impact reducing transmission and adverse health outcomes relative to voluntary risk-mitigation only (e.g., in response to rising cases and deaths, some people may avoid crowded settings, hospitality, retail, social occasions, or indoor settings). This study aims to estimate the impact of the August-November 2021 enforced public health restrictions in Victoria, compared to voluntary risk-mitigation only. METHODS: An agent-based model was calibrated to Victorian epidemiological, health and behavioural data from 1 August to 30 November 2021, as well as policies that were implemented over that period. Two counter-factual scenarios were run for the same period with (a) no restrictions in place; or (b) voluntary risk-mitigation only, based on behaviour measured over the December-January Omicron BA.1 epidemic wave when restrictions were not in place. RESULTS: Over August-November 2021, the baseline model scenario resulted in 97,000 (91,000-102,000) diagnoses, 9100 (8500-9700) hospital admissions, and 480 (430-530) deaths. Without any restrictions in place, there were 3,228,000 (3,200,000-3,253,000) diagnoses, 375,100 (370,200-380,900) hospital admissions, and 16,700 (16,000-17,500) deaths. With voluntary risk-mitigation equal to those observed during the Omicron BA.1 epidemic wave, there were 1,507,000 (1,469,000-1,549,000) diagnoses, 130,300 (124,500-136,000) hospital admissions, and 5500 (5000-6100) deaths. CONCLUSION: Public health restrictions implemented in Victoria over August-November 2021 are likely to have averted more than 120,000 hospitalizations and 5000 deaths relative to voluntary risk-mitigation only. During a COVID-19 epidemic wave voluntary behaviour change can reduce transmission substantially, but not to the same extent as enforced restrictions.

Does sexuality matter? A cross-sectional study of drug use, social injecting, and access to injection-specific care among men who inject drugs in Melbourne, Australia.

BACKGROUND: Gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM) are overrepresented in cohorts of people who inject drugs. GBMSM's substance use is usually explored in the context of its contribution to sexual risk. We examined drug use practices, connectedness to other people who inject drugs, peer-to-peer injecting, and access to care among men who inject drugs in Melbourne, Australia. We aim to describe similarities and differences in these parameters for GBMSM and other men. METHODS: Data were drawn from a prospective cohort study of people who inject drugs conducted in Melbourne, Australia, since 2009. This cross-sectional study used data collected between 2016 and 2021. Descriptive statistics were used to assess differences between GBMSM and other men. RESULTS: Of 525 men who injected drugs over the study period, 48 (9%) identified as gay or bisexual, or reported sex with other men in the past 12 months. GBMSM and other men reported similar socio-demographics, drug practices (age of injecting initiation, most injected drug, peer-to-peer injecting, receptive syringe sharing) and access to injecting-specific care (drug treatment, source of needle-syringes). A significantly greater percentage of GBMSM reported past 12-month hepatitis C testing (69% vs. 52%, p = 0.028) and preferring methamphetamine (31% vs. 16%, p = 0.022). A higher percentage of GBMSM reported knowing > 50 other people who inject drugs (46% vs. 37%), but this difference was not statistically significant. Both groups primarily obtained injecting equipment from needle-syringe programs; a minority had accessed injecting-specific primary care. CONCLUSION: Men who injected drugs in this cohort and those who identified as GBMSM reported similar drug and health-seeking practices. The higher prevalence of methamphetamine injecting among GBMSM may warrant different harm reduction support for this group. Health promotion should utilise opportunities to connect men who inject drugs in Melbourne to injecting-specific primary health care.

Constructing a 'target population': A critical analysis of public health discourse on substance use among gay and bisexual men, 2000-2020.

BACKGROUND: Gay and bisexual men (GBM) have higher substance use prevalences than general population samples - often attributed to stigmatisation of sexual minority identities. We examined how influential public health research on substance use among GBM interprets this behaviour and what GBM-specific identities emerge through the discourses employed. METHODS: We searched Web of Science for publications on substance use among GBM, selecting 60 of the most cited papers published during 2000-2020. We studied the language used to describe and interpret drug-using behaviour using critical discourse analysis, focusing on interpretive repertoires and subject positions. RESULTS: Three distinct discursive tendencies were identified. First, in constructing a target population, GBM who use illicit drugs are positioned as deficient, socially irresponsible, and maladapted to dealing with stigmatisation and HIV risks. Second, in shifting the focus beyond the individual, the gay community is conceptualised as offering a safe space for socialisation. Nonetheless, gay community spaces are problematised as promoting substance use among vulnerable GBM through aggravating loneliness and normalising drug use as a form of maladaptive (avoidance) coping. Third, counterdiscursive movements add nuance, context, and comparisons that relativise rather than generalise substance use and focus on pleasure and self-determination. Such discourses centre the need for interventions that disrupt homophobic socio-structures instead of individualising approaches to limit non-conformity. CONCLUSION: 'Expert' assessments of substance use among GBM perpetuate pathologising understandings of this behaviour and promote abject subject positions, contributing to perpetuations of intergroup stigma and social exclusion based on drug and sexual practices. Our findings highlight the need for deliberate and critical engagement with prior research and a conscious effort to disrupt dominant discourses on GBM's substance use.

Prevalence of baseline HCV NS5A resistance associated substitutions in genotype 1a, 1b and 3 infection in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Direct-acting antivirals (DAA) have revolutionised hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment, and most regimens include an NS5A inhibitor. Certain amino-acid substitutions confer resistance to NS5A inhibitors, termed resistance-associated substitutions (RAS). If present at baseline, they can reduce virological response rates. Population-based sequencing (PBS) is generally used for baseline sequencing, however next generation sequencing (NGS) reduces the threshold for detection of sequences encoding RAS from 20% to 5%. We determined the prevalence of NS5A RAS at baseline amongst Australian chronically infected with genotype (GT)1a, GT1b and GT3 HCV, using both PBS and NGS. METHODS: Samples from DAA-naïve individuals were received at the Victorian Infectious Disease Reference Laboratory between June 2016 and December 2018. All samples were analysed for NS5A RAS using PBS. A subset of GT1 HCV samples were processed using NGS technology (Vela Diagnostics, Singapore) to determine the improvement in sensitivity. RESULTS: In total, 672 samples were analysed using PBS. The baseline prevalence of NS5A RAS was 7.6% for GT1a (n = 25/329), 15.7% for GT1b (n = 8/51) and 15.1% for GT3 (n = 44/292). NGS only marginally increased sensitivity for NS5A RAS at baseline in GT1a (16% vs 17%) and GT1b (29% vs 36%). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of NS5A RAS in GT1a HCV in Australia was low compared with international data, and was similar to other reported international prevalence for GT1b and GT3 infection. NGS at baseline only marginally increased sensitivity for the detection of NS5A RAS in patients with GT1 HCV and cannot be recommended for routine use at baseline in clinical practice.

"I'm obviously not dying so it's not something I need to sort out today": Considering hepatitis C treatment in the era of direct acting antivirals.

BACKGROUND: People who inject drugs are the group at greatest risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The advent of new direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment provides opportunities for increased uptake of therapy. METHODS: We conducted in-depth interviews with thirty HCV positive participants from the SuperMIX cohort study. Interviews were transcribed, coded, and analysed for emerging themes and similarities between participants. General descriptions and critical interpretation of themes were generated and selective quotes extracted verbatim to best illustrate the critical themes. RESULTS: Participants described their experiences of living with HCV, their knowledge of HCV treatment accessibility, and information on the types of support ain themes: Understanding the need for treatment; Knowledge and framing of treatment access; and Support during treatment. CONCLUSION: The new, highly effective DAAs for the treatment of HCV are heralded as the potential beginning of HCV elimination, especially in settings where scale up is high. Our data from active PWID show that the availability of DAA medications in and of themselves is likely not to be enough to ensure that PWID will come forward for HCV treatment in sufficient numbers to drive elimination.

Community-based provision of direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C: study protocol and challenges of a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: To achieve the World Health Organization hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination targets, it is essential to increase access to treatment. Direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment can be provided in primary healthcare services (PHCS), improving accessibility, and, potentially, retention in care. Here, we describe our protocol for assessing the effectiveness of providing DAAs in PHCS, and the impact on the HCV care cascade. In addition, we reflect on the challenges of conducting a model of care study during a period of unprecedented change in HCV care and treatment. METHODS: Consenting patients with HCV infection attending 13 PHCS in Australia or New Zealand are randomized to receive DAA treatment at the local tertiary institution (standard care arm), or their PHCS (intervention arm). The primary endpoint is the proportion commenced on DAAs and cured. Treatment providers at the PHCS include: hepatology nurses, primary care practitioners, or, in two sites, a specialist physician. All PHCS offer opioid substitution therapy. DISCUSSION: The Prime Study is the first real-world, randomized, model of care study exploring the impact of community provision of DAA therapy on HCV-treatment uptake and cure. Although the study has faced challenges unique to this period of time characterized by changing treatment and service delivery, the data gained will be of critical importance in shaping health service policy that enables the elimination of HCV. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov , ID: NCT02555475 . Registered on 15 September 2015.

Aiming for elimination: Outcomes of a consultation pathway supporting regional general practitioners to prescribe direct-acting antiviral therapy for hepatitis C.

To increase access to treatment, the Australian government enabled general practitioners (GPs) to prescribe direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV)-in consultation with a specialist if inexperienced in HCV management. This study describes the establishment and outcomes of a remote consultation pathway supporting GPs to treat HCV. Key stakeholders from primary and tertiary healthcare services in the Barwon South Western region developed and implemented an HCV remote consultation pathway. Pharmaceutical Benefits Schedule prescription data were used to evaluate GP DAA prescription 12 months pre-and post- pathway implementation. A retrospective review of patients referred for remote consultation for 12 months post- pathway inception was undertaken to determine the care cascade. HCV treatment initiation by GPs increased after implementation of the remote consultation pathway. In the 12-month study period, 74 GPs referred 169 people for remote consultation; 114 (67%) were approved for GP DAA treatment; 48 (28%) were referred for specialist assessment. In total, 119 (71%) patients commenced DAA; 69 were eligible for SVR12 assessment. Post-treatment HCV RNA data were available for 52 (75%) people; 37 achieved SVR12; 15 achieved SVR ranging from week 5 to 11 post-treatment. No treatment failure was detected. Collaborative development and implementation of a remote consultation pathway has engaged regional GPs in managing HCV. Follow-up post-treatment could be improved; however, no treatment failure has been documented. To eliminate HCV as a public health threat, it is vital that specialists support GPs to prescribe DAA.

Treatment as Prevention for Hepatitis C (TraP Hep C) - a nationwide elimination programme in Iceland using direct-acting antiviral agents.

A nationwide programme for the treatment of all patients infected with hepatitis C virus (HCV) was launched in Iceland in January 2016. By providing universal access to direct-acting antiviral agents to the entire patient population, the two key aims of the project were to (i) offer a cure to patients and thus reduce the long-term sequelae of chronic hepatitis C, and (ii) to reduce domestic incidence of HCV in the population by 80% prior to the WHO goal of HCV elimination by the year 2030. An important part of the programme is that vast majority of cases will be treated within 36 months from the launch of the project, during 2016-2018. Emphasis is placed on early case finding and treatment of patients at high risk for transmitting HCV, that is people who inject drugs (PWID), as well as patients with advanced liver disease. In addition to treatment scale-up, the project also entails intensification of harm reduction efforts, improved access to diagnostic tests, as well as educational campaigns to curtail spread, facilitate early detection and improve linkage to care. With these efforts, Iceland is anticipated to achieve the WHO hepatitis C elimination goals well before 2030. This article describes the background and organization of this project. Clinical trial number: NCT02647879.

Injecting drug use in low and middle-income countries: Opportunities to improve care and prevent harm.

Inadequate response to injecting drug use (IDU) is a significant problem the world over. Low levels of funding, political inaction, poor levels of health service coverage, high prevalence and incidence of IDU-related blood-borne viruses (BBVs) and ongoing stigmatization/marginalization affect people who inject drugs (PWID) regardless of the income status of the country they reside in. These barriers and system failings are, however, exacerbated in low and middle-income countries (LMICs), meaning that the potential consequences of inaction are more pressing. In this narrative review, we describe the levels of IDU and IDU-specific BBV prevalence in LMICs; levels of harm reduction implementation; the consequences of late or insufficient response, the shortcomings of data collection and dissemination; and the barriers to effective LMIC harm reduction implementation. We also exemplify cases where IDU-related harms and BBV epidemics have been successfully curtailed in LMICs, showing that effective response, despite the barriers, is possible. In conclusion, we suggest four key priorities on the basis of the review: confirming the presence or absence of IDU in LMICs, improving the collection and dissemination of national IDU-specific data, increasing the level of harm reduction programme implementation in LMICs, and increasing both national and international advocacy for PWID and attendant public health interventions.

Anorectal swabs as a marker of male-to-male sexual exposure in STI surveillance systems.

Identification of priority populations such as men who have sex with men (MSM) is important in surveillance systems to monitor trends of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We explored using routinely collected non-behavioural data as a means to establish MSM status in surveillance by assessing anorectal swab as a marker of male-to-male sexual exposure. We used chlamydia testing data from a sexual health clinic, 2007-2012. Men reporting any male sexual partner(s) in the previous 12 months were considered MSM. The dataset was split into development and validation samples to develop a univariate predictive model and assess the model fit. The dataset included 30 358 individual men and 48 554 episodes of STI testing; 45% were among reported MSM and an anorectal swab was performed in 40% of testing episodes. Anorectal swabbing had good diagnostic performance as a marker for MSM status (sensitivity = 87%, specificity = 99%, positive predictive value = 98·6%, negative predictive value = 90·3%). The model showed good fit against the internal validation sample (area under the curve = 0·93). Anorectal swabs are a valid marker of MSM behaviour in surveillance data from sexual health clinics, and they are likely to be particularly useful for monitoring STI trends among MSM with higher risk behaviour.

HCV reinfection incidence among individuals treated for recent infection.

One challenge to HCV elimination through therapeutic intervention is reinfection. The aim of this analysis was to calculate the incidence of HCV reinfection among both HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals treated for recent HCV infection (estimated infection duration <18 months). Individuals with recent HCV infection who achieved an end-of-treatment response in four open-label studies between 2004 and 2015 in Australia and New Zealand were assessed for HCV reinfection, confirmed by sequencing of the Core-E2 and/or NS5B regions. Reinfection incidence was calculated using person-time of observation. Exact Poisson regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with HCV reinfection. The cohort at risk for reinfection (n=120; 83% male; median age 36 years) was composed of HIV-positive men-who-have-sex-with-men (53%) and people who inject drugs (current 49%, ever 69%). Total follow-up time at risk was 135 person-years (median 1.08 years, range 0.17, 2.53). Ten cases of HCV reinfection were identified, for an incidence of 7.4 per 100 py (95% CI 4.0, 13.8). Reinfection incidence was significantly higher among participants who reported injection drug use at end of or post-treatment, irrespective of HIV status (15.5 per 100 py, 95% CI 7.8, 31.1). In adjusted analysis, factors associated with reinfection were older age (aIRR 5.3, 95% CI 1.15, 51.5, P=.042) and injection drug use at end of or post-treatment (aIRR 7.9, 95% CI 1.6, 77.2, P=.008). High reinfection incidence following treatment for recent HCV infection in individuals with ongoing risk behaviour emphasizes the need for post-treatment surveillance, harm reduction strategies and education in at-risk populations.

Analysis of resistance-associated substitutions in acute hepatitis C virus infection by deep sequencing across six genotypes and three continents.

Several direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) have been approved for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections, opening the door to highly effective interferon-free treatment regimens. Resistance-associated substitutions (RASs) have been reported both in treatment-naïve patients and following treatment with protease (NS3), phosphoprotein (NS5A) and polymerase (NS5B) inhibitors. The prevalence of naturally occurring RASs in untreated HCV-infected individuals has mostly been analysed in those infected with genotype 1 (GT1), in the late phase of infection, and only within limited regions of the genome. Furthermore, the geographic distribution of RASs remains poorly characterized. In this study, we used next-generation sequencing to analyse full-length HCV genomes for the prevalence of RASs in acute HCV infections identified in nine international prospective cohorts. RASs were analysed in 179 participants infected with all six major HCV genotypes (GT1-GT6), and the geographic distribution of RASs was assessed in 107 GT1a and GT3a samples. While RASs were detected at varied frequencies across the three genomic regions, and between genotypes, RASs relevant to multiple DAAs in the leading IFN-free regimens were rarely detected in combination. Low-frequency RASs (<10% of the viral population) were also shown to have a GT-specific distribution. The main RASs with geographic associations were NS3 Q80K in GT1a samples and NS5B N142T in GT3a. These data provide the backdrop for prospective surveillance of RASs during DAA treatment scale-up.

Phylogenetic analysis of full-length, early infection, hepatitis C virus genomes among people with intravenous drug use: the InC3 Study.

Cross-continental phylogenetic analysis is important to understand subtle molecular differences of currently circulating hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes. Existence of such differences can be crucial in pursuing a universal hepatitis C vaccine. We characterized molecular epidemiology of early HCV infections identified across nine cohorts [North America (n=4), Australia (n=4) and Europe (n=1)] in the International Collaborative of Incident HIV and Hepatitis C in Injecting Cohorts (InC3 ). One hundred and ninety-two full-length HCV genomes were amplified from plasma of incident infections and subjected to next generation sequencing to establish the largest cross-continental, full-length acute HCV genomic data set available to date. Genomes from the most common subtypes (1a: n=94, 2b: n=15 and 3a: n=68) were used in phylogenetic analysis. Using full genome trees, 78 sequences (44%) were found to lie within 29 phylogenetic clusters/pairs defined on the basis of molecular similarity of consensus sequences. Of these, 26 each had exclusively Australian or North American sequences indicating a strong geographical bias for molecular similarity. On further analysis of behavioural and demographic associations, binary logistic regression analysis showed that older age and non-Caucasian ethnicity were significantly associated with clustering. HCV probably evolves in micro-epidemics within geographically isolated communities.

A longitudinal cohort study of HIV 'treatment as prevention' in gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men: the Treatment with Antiretrovirals and their Impact on Positive And Negative men (TAIPAN) study protocol.

BACKGROUND: Australia has increased coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART) over the past decade, reaching 73% uptake in 2014. While ART reduces AIDS-related deaths, accumulating evidence suggests that it could also bolster prevention efforts by reducing the risk of HIV transmission ('treatment as prevention'). While promising, evidence of community-level impact of treatment as prevention on reducing HIV incidence among gay and bisexual men is limited. We describe a study protocol that aims to determine if scale up of testing and treatment for HIV leads to a reduction in community viraemia and, in turn, if this reduction is temporally associated with a reduction in HIV incidence among gay and bisexual men in Australia's two most populous states. METHODS: Over the period 2009 to 2017, we will establish two cohorts making use of clinical and laboratory data electronically extracted retrospectively and prospectively from 73 health services and laboratories in the states of New South Wales and Victoria. The 'positive cohort' will consist of approximately 13,000 gay and bisexual men (>90% of all people living with HIV). The 'negative cohort' will consist of at least 40,000 HIV-negative gay and bisexual men (approximately half of the total population). Within the negative cohort we will use standard repeat-testing methods to calculate annual HIV incidence. Community prevalence of viraemia will be defined as the proportion of men with a viral load ≥200RNA copies/mm3, which will combine viral load data from the positive cohort and viraemia estimates among those with an undiagnosed HIV infection. Using regression analyses and adjusting for behavioural and demographic factors associated with infection, we will assess the temporal association between the community prevalence of viraemia and the incidence of HIV infection. Further analyses will make use of these cohorts to assess incidence and predictors of treatment initiation, repeat HIV testing, and viral suppression. DISCUSSION: This study will provide important information on whether 'treatment as prevention' is associated with a reduction in HIV incidence at a community level among gay and bisexual men.

Resumption of injecting drug use following release from prison in Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Ex-prisoners with a history of injecting drug use (IDU) experience disproportionate drug-related harm. Rapid resumption of substance use following prison release is common and evidenced in high rates of overdose mortality. However, few studies have documented the rate of IDU resumption following prison release or identified risk factors for relapse. METHODS: Structured interviews were conducted with 533 adults with a history of IDU in Queensland, Australia prior to release from prison and approximately 1, 3 and 6 months post-release. Incidence of self-reported IDU resumption was calculated overall and for each follow-up interval. Risk factors associated with time to resumption of IDU were estimated using discrete-time survival analysis. RESULTS: IDU resumption was reported by 41% of participants during a median of 98days of follow-up (IQR=94-121), an overall crude incidence of 1.06 per person-year. The highest rate was observed in the first month (23%; crude incidence 2.24 per person-year). In adjusted discrete-time survival analyses, being unemployed at the previous interview (AHR=1.59; 95%CI:1.10-2.30), shorter incarceration (≤90days vs. >365days; AHR=2.20; 95%CI:1.33-3.65), and IDU during the index incarceration (AHR=2.80; 95%CI:1.92-4.09) were significantly associated with time to IDU resumption; parole was protective (AHR=0.66; 95%CI:0.47-0.92). CONCLUSIONS: Evidence-based efforts to prevent IDU in prison and IDU resumption after release are important for both prisoner and public health. Enhancing opportunities for employment and capitalising on the short-term benefits of parole for ex-prisoners may delay resumption of IDU after release from prison. These strategies should complement rather than replace harm reduction efforts for this high-risk population.

HIV and Sexual Risk Among Men Who Have Sex With Men and Women in Asia: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

We performed a systematic review to estimate the proportion of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Asia who are bisexual and compare prevalence of HIV and sexual risk between men who have sex with men and women (MSMW) and men who have sex with men only (MSMO). Forty-eight articles based on 55 unique samples were identified from nine countries in Asia. Bisexual behaviour was common among MSM (pooled prevalence 32.8 %). Prevalence of HIV (pooled OR 0.90; 95 % CI 0.77-1.05), recent syphilis infection (pooled OR 0.99; 95 % CI 0.93-1.06) and unprotected anal intercourse (pooled OR 0.80; 95 % CI 0.57-1.11) were similar between MSMW and MSMO, but heterogeneity was high. MSMW had lower odds of reporting a prior HIV test than MSMO (OR 0.82; 95 % CI 0.70-0.95; p = 0.01, I(2) = 0 %). Targeted interventions are needed to increase uptake of HIV testing among MSMW. Increased reporting of disaggregated data in surveillance and research will help improve understanding of risk in MSMW and inform targeted interventions.