Viral burden in genital secretions determines male-to-female sexual transmission of HIV-1: a probabilistic empiric model.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a model to predict transmission of HIV-1 from men to women. DESIGN: HIV-1 in seminal plasma, and endocervical CCR5 receptors were correlated with epidemiological studies of HIV-1 transmission to develop a probabilistic model. SETTINGS: Semen samples were collected from patient subjects in Seattle Washington, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and St. Gallen, Switzerland. Endocervical biopsy specimens were obtained from women in Chicago, Illinois. PARTICIPANTS: Eighty-six men (not receiving antiretroviral therapy) in whom CD4 cell count and semen volume were available, and 24 women in whom the number of endocervical CCR5 receptors were determined. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Prediction of transmission of HIV-1 from men to women per episode of vaginal intercourse based on the absolute burden of HIV (volume x HIV RNA copies/ml seminal plasma). RESULTS: The model suggests efficient heterosexual transmission of HIV-1 when semen viral burden is high. When semen contains 100 000 copies of non-syncytium-inducing (NSI) HIV RNA the probability of HIV-1 transmission is 1 per 100 episodes of intercourse; conversely, with 1000 copies NSI HIV RNA in semen, transmission probability is 3 per 10 000 episodes of intercourse. CONCLUSIONS: This model links biological and epidemiological data related to heterosexual HIV-1 transmission. The model can be used to estimate transmission of HIV from men with high semen viral burden from inflammation, or reduced burden after antiretroviral therapy. The results offer a biological explanation for the magnitude of the HIV epidemic in places where earlier studies have shown men have high semen viral burden, such as in sub-Saharan Africa. The model can be used to develop and test HIV-1 prevention strategies.

Linear equality constraints in the general linear mixed model.

Scientists may wish to analyze correlated outcome data with constraints among the responses. For example, piecewise linear regression in a longitudinal data analysis can require use of a general linear mixed model combined with linear parameter constraints. Although well developed for standard univariate models, there are no general results that allow a data analyst to specify a mixed model equation in conjunction with a set of constraints on the parameters. We resolve the difficulty by precisely describing conditions that allow specifying linear parameter constraints that insure the validity of estimates and tests in a general linear mixed model. The recommended approach requires only straightforward and noniterative calculations to implement. We illustrate the convenience and advantages of the methods with a comparison of cognitive developmental patterns in a study of individuals from infancy to early adulthood for children from low-income families.

Safety of hydroxyurea in children with sickle cell anemia: results of the HUG-KIDS study, a phase I/II trial. Pediatric Hydroxyurea Group.

Previous studies have determined the short-term toxicity profile, laboratory changes, and clinical efficacy associated with hydroxyurea (HU) therapy in adults with sickle cell anemia. The safety and efficacy of this agent in pediatric patients with sickle cell anemia has not been determined. Children with sickle cell anemia, age 5 to 15 years, were eligible for this multicenter Phase I/II trial. HU was started at 15 mg/kg/d and escalated to 30 mg/kg/d unless the patient experienced laboratory toxicity. Patients were monitored by 2-week visits to assess compliance, toxicity, clinical adverse events, growth parameters, and laboratory efficacy associated with HU treatment. Eighty-four children were enrolled between December 1994 and March 1996. Sixty-eight children reached maximum tolerated dose (MTD) and 52 were treated at MTD for 1 year. Significant hematologic changes included increases in hemoglobin concentration, mean corpuscular volume, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, and fetal hemoglobin parameters, and decreases in white blood cell, neutrophil, platelet, and reticulocyte counts. Laboratory toxicities typically were mild, transient, and were reversible upon temporary discontinuation of HU. No life-threatening clinical adverse events occurred and no child experienced growth failure. This Phase I/II trial shows that HU therapy is safe for children with sickle cell anemia when treatment was directed by a pediatric hematologist. HU in children induces similar laboratory changes as in adults. Phase III trials to determine if HU can prevent chronic organ damage in children with sickle cell anemia are warranted.

A discriminant analysis extension to mixed models.

Discriminant analysis is commonly used to classify an observation into one of two (or more) populations on the basis of correlated measurements. Classical discriminant analysis approaches require complete data for all observations. Our extension enables the use of all available longitudinal data, regardless of completeness. Traditionally a linear discriminant function assumes a common unstructured covariance matrix for both populations, which may be taken from a multivariate model. Here, we can model the correlated measurements and use a structured covariance in the discriminant function. We illustrate cases in which the estimated covariance structure is either compound symmetric, heterogeneous compound symmetric or heterogeneous autoregressive. Thus a structured covariance is incorporated into the discrimination process in contrast to standard discriminant analysis methodology. Simulations are performed to obtain a true measure of the effect of structure on the error rate. In addition, the usual multivariate expected value structure is altered. The impact on the discrimination process is contrasted when using the multivariate and random-effects covariance structures and expected values. The random-effects covariance structure leads to an improvement in the error rate in small samples. To illustrate the procedure we consider repeated measurements data from a clinical trial comparing two active treatments; the goal is to determine if the treatment could be unblinded based on repeated anxiety score measurements.

The creation of linear contiguous lesions in the atria with an expandable loop catheter.

OBJECTIVES: This article describes a catheter system designed to create linear atrial lesions and identifies electrophysiologic markers that are associated with the creation of linear lesions. BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (Afib) is the most common arrhythmia in humans and causes a significant morbidity. The success of surgical interventions has provided the impetus for the development of a catheter-based approach for the ablation of Afib. METHODS: We tested a catheter system with 24 4-mm ring electrodes that can create loops in the atria. The electrodes can be used to record electrical activity and deliver radiofrequency power for ablation. In 33 dogs, 82 linear lesions were generated using three power titration protocols: fixed levels, manual titration guided by local electrogram activity and temperature control. Bipolar activity was recorded from the 24 electrodes before, during and after lesion generation. Data were gathered regarding lesion contiguity, transmurality and dimensions; the changes in local electrical activity amplitude; the incidence rate of rapid impedance rises and desiccation or char formation; and rhythm outcomes. RESULTS: Catheter deployment usually requires <60 s. Linear lesions (12 to 16 cm in length and 6 +/- 2 mm wide) can be generated in 24 to 48 min without moving the catheter. Effective lesion formation can be predicted by a decrease of greater than 50% in the amplitude of bipolar recordings. Splitting or fragmentation of the electrogram and increasing pacing threshold (3.1 +/- 3.3 mV to 7.1 +/- 3.8 mV, p < 0.01) are indicative of effective lesion formation. Impedance rises and char formation occurred at 91 +/- 12 degrees C. Linear lesion creation does not result in the initiation of Afib. However, atrial flutter was recorded after the completion of the final lesion in 3/12 hearts. When using temperature control, no char was noted in the left atrium, whereas 8% of the right atrium burns had char. CONCLUSIONS: This adjustable loop catheter forces the atrial tissue to conform around the catheter and is capable of producing linear, contiguous lesions up to 16 cm long with minimal effort and radiation exposure. Pacing thresholds and electrogram amplitude and character are markers of effective lesion formation. Although Afib could not be induced after lesion set completion, sustained atrial flutter could be induced in 25% of the hearts.

MSQ: Migraine-Specific Quality-of-Life Questionnaire. Further investigation of the factor structure.

MSQ, the 16-item Migraine-Specific Quality-of-Life Questionnaire (Version 1.0), was developed by Glaxo Wellcome Inc. to assess the effect of migraine and its treatment on patients' health-related quality of life (HR-QOL). The MSQ was hypothesised to measure 3 meaningful dimensions: (i) Role Function-Restrictive; (ii) Role Function-Preventive; and (iii) Emotional Function. The objective of this research was to further investigate the number of dimensions as well as the items contained in each dimension through principal components factor analysis of clinical trial data. Secondary objectives were to determine whether the factor structure changed in post-treatment visits compared with screening visits, to make recommendations for coding the MSQ when the patient did not have a migraine in the previous 4 weeks, and to modify the MSQ if so indicated by this research. Results supported the existence of 3 distinct factors which agreed strongly with the hypothesised dimensions. The analysis of post-treatment data suggested that the underlying factor structure of the MSQ varies as a result of treatment. Based on evaluations of the 'did not have a migraine' response, it was concluded that it be dropped from the MSQ. All these changes have been incorporated into MSQ (Version 2.0) which is being evaluated in studies to determine if its psychometric properties are different than the properties of the previous version.

An evaluation of Safe Dates, an adolescent dating violence prevention program.

OBJECTIVES: This study assessed the effects of the Safe Dates program on the primary and secondary prevention of adolescent dating violence. METHODS: Fourteen schools were randomly allocated to treatment conditions. Eighty percent (n=1886) of the eighth and ninth graders in a rural county completed baseline questionnaires, and 1700 (90%) completed follow-up questionnaires. RESULTS: Treatment and control groups were comparable at baseline. In the full sample at follow-up, less psychological abuse, sexual violence, and violence perpetrated against the current dating partner were reported in treatment than in control schools. In a subsample of adolescents reporting no dating violence at baseline (a primary prevention subsample), there was less initiation of psychological abuse in treatment than in control schools. In a subsample of adolescents reporting dating violence at baseline (a secondary prevention subsample), there was less psychological abuse and sexual violence perpetration reported at follow-up in treatment than in control schools. Most program effects were explained by changes in dating violence norms, gender stereotyping, and awareness of services. CONCLUSIONS: The Safe Dates program shows promise for preventing dating violence among adolescents.

Modeling development of sleep-wake behaviors: I. Using the mixed general linear model.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of the mixed general linear model (MixMod) for modeling development of sleep-wake behaviors in preterm infants. The mixed general linear model allows the concurrent identification of both group and individual developmental patterns in longitudinal data sets with inconsistently timed data, irregularly timed data, and randomly missing values. This statistical technique is well suited to data from preterm infants because these infants enter and leave longitudinal studies at varying times depending on their health status. One sleep organizational variable--the regularity of respiration in quiet sleep--obtained from a study of 37 preterm infants was used as an example. Seven infant characteristics were used as covariates. The various steps involved in conducting a mixed model analysis of this variable are illustrated. The strengths and limitations of this technique are discussed.

Model selection techniques for the covariance matrix for incomplete longitudinal data.

In longitudinal studies with incomplete data, where the number of time points can become numerous, it is often advantageous to model the covariance matrix. We describe several covariance models (for example, mixed models, compound symmetry, AR(1)-type models, and combination models) that offer parsimonious alternatives to unstructured sigma. We evaluate each covariance model with longitudinal data concerning cholesterol as the repeated outcome measure. We discuss strategies for deciding the 'best' model and show a graphical technique for judging goodness-of-fit of covariance models.

EM mixed model analysis of data from informatively censored normal distributions.

Maximum likelihood techniques using the EM algorithm are applied to correlated normally distributed survival data from a placebo-controlled, double-blind, dose-ranging crossover study to assess the short-term efficacy of an antianginal drug in patients with chronic stable angina. Censoring was informative and nonterminal and was not due to death or withdrawal from the study. Unlike previous approaches these techniques are mathematically and computationally tractable, do not require computations of high-dimensional integrals, and do not require the inversion of large matrices.

Effects of dietary electrolyte balance on subluxation of the femoral head in growing dogs.

Effects of increased dietary chloride and reduced sodium and potassium ion concentrations on coxofemoral joint conformation, as assessed by radiography, were examined in growing dogs. Dietary electrolyte balance was quantified by dietary anion gap (DAG), defined as Na+ + K+ - Cl- in milli-equivalents per 100 g of food. Diets had anion gap ranging from 8 to 41 mEq/100 g of food. One hundred sixty-seven pups from 27 litters representing 5 breeds were studied during the period of rapid growth. The extent of subluxation of the femoral head was measured on radiographs, using the method of Norberg. On average, less subluxation of the femoral head (P < 0.05) was observed when diets with lower DAG were fed. Differences in DAG balance did not result in different rates of weight gain; therefore, the reduction in coxofemoral joint subluxation attributable to low DAG was unrelated to weight gain. Norberg angles measured at 30 weeks of age were highly correlated with coxofemoral joint status at 2 years of age, as measured by the Swedish diagnostic system and the scoring system of the Orthopedic Foundation for Animals (lrl > or = 0.70, P < 0.0002, n = 24). This diet-related improvement in coxofemoral joint subluxation would be expected, on average, to delay or mitigate the characteristic clinical and radiographic signs of hip dysplasia in growing dogs.

Intentionally incomplete longitudinal designs: I. Methodology and comparison of some full span designs.

Longitudinal designs are important in medical research and in many other disciplines. Complete longitudinal studies, in which each subject is evaluated at each measurement occasion, are often very expensive and motivate a search for more efficient designs. Recently developed statistical methods foster the use of intentionally incomplete longitudinal designs that have the potential to be more efficient than complete designs. Mixed models provide appropriate data analysis tools. Fixed effect hypotheses can be tested via a recently developed test statistic, FH. An accurate approximation of the statistic's small sample non-central distribution makes power computations feasible. After reviewing some longitudinal design terminology and mixed model notation, this paper summarizes the computation of FH and approximate power from its non-central distribution. These methods are applied to obtain a large number of intentionally incomplete full-span designs that are more powerful and/or less costly alternatives to a complete design. The source of the greater efficiency of incomplete designs and potential fragility of incomplete designs to randomly missing data are discussed.

Nitrogen dioxide exposure and urinary excretion of hydroxyproline and desmosine.

The relationship between average and peak personal exposure to nitrogen dioxide and urinary excretion of hydroxyproline and desmosine was investigated in a population of preschool children and their mothers. Weekly average personal nitrogen dioxide exposures for subjects who resided in homes with one or more potential nitrogen dioxide source (e.g., a kerosene space heater, gas stove, or tobacco smoke) ranged between 16.3 and 50.6 ppb (30.6 and 95.1 micrograms/m3) for children and between 16.9 and 44.1 ppb (12.8 and 82.9 micrograms/m3) for mothers. In these individuals, the hydroxyproline-to-creatinine and desmosine-to-creatinine ratios were unrelated to personal nitrogen dioxide exposure--even though continuous monitoring documented home nitrogen dioxide concentration peaks of 100-475 ppb lasting up to 100 h in duration. Significantly higher hydroxyproline-to-creatinine and desmosine-to-creatinine ratios were observed in children, compared with mothers (p < .001 and .003, respectively).

Effects of limited food consumption on the incidence of hip dysplasia in growing dogs.

Forty-eight 8-week-old Labrador Retrievers were allotted to 2 groups of 24 dogs each; 1 group was fed ad libitum and the other group was given 25% less of the same feed until the dogs were 2 years old. Radiography of the hip joints was done when the dogs were 30, 42, 54, 78, and 104 weeks old. Subluxation was measured by the Norberg angle on radiographs made with the dog in the standard (extended limb) position. Independent of age at which the radiography was done, there was less subluxation of the femoral heads in the limit-fed dogs. Using the Swedish method of hip joint evaluation on the same radiographs, it was found that fewer dogs on limited food intake had signs of hip dysplasia. Radiographs done when dogs were 2 years old, for all the methods used (Norberg angle in standard and frog-limb position, the Orthopedic Foundation for Animals [OFA] score, and the Swedish score), revealed less hip dysplasia (less joint subluxation and less degenerative joint disease) in the limit-fed dogs. Using the OFA method, 7 of the 24 limit-fed dogs and 16 of the 24 ad libitum-fed dogs were diagnosed as having hip dysplasia. Similarly, using the Swedish method, 5 of the 24 limit-fed dogs and 18 of the 24 ad libitum-fed dogs were diagnosed as having hip dysplasia. The food-intake-related differences were significant both for the OFA score and for the Swedish score.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A pilot study of aerosolized amiloride for the treatment of lung disease in cystic fibrosis.

Excessive active absorption of sodium is a unique abnormality of the airway epithelium in patients with cystic fibrosis. This defect is associated with thickened mucus and poor clearance of airway secretions and may contribute to the pulmonary disease in these patients. To study whether the inhibition of excessive absorption of sodium might affect the course of lung disease in cystic fibrosis, we performed a double-blind, crossover trial comparing aerosolized amiloride (5 mmol per liter; 3.5 ml four times daily), a sodium-channel blocker, with vehicle alone. Fourteen of the 18 adult patients initially enrolled in the study completed the one-year trial (25 weeks for each treatment). The mean (+/- SEM) loss of forced vital capacity (FVC) was reduced from 3.39 +/- 1.13 ml per day during treatment with vehicle alone to 1.44 +/- 0.67 ml per day during treatment with amiloride (P less than 0.04). A measured index of sputum viscosity and elasticity was abnormal during treatment with vehicle alone and improved during treatment with amiloride. Calculated indexes of mucociliary and cough clearance also improved during amiloride treatment. No systemic, respiratory, or subjective toxic effects of amiloride were noted. We conclude from this preliminary study that aerosolized amiloride can be safely administered to adults with cystic fibrosis. The slowing of the loss of FVC and the improvement in sputum viscosity and elasticity suggest a beneficial clinical effect. Aerosolized amiloride deserves further evaluation in the treatment of lung disease in patients with cystic fibrosis.

The conflict between relational databases and the hierarchical structure of clinical trials data.

Relational database software has become popular for the management of certain types of commercial data. Its use is being given serious consideration in the management of data from clinical trials. Relational systems have a number of advantages over hierarchical or network systems for some types of data. However, as illustrated by an example, the data from clinical trials typically have an inherent hierarchical structure. The incorporation of hierarchically structured data into a relational database raises difficult problems of data integrity versus the complexity of the database structure. These problems, together with the long execution times of many relational operations, indicate that relational systems are not necessarily well suited for clinical trials data management.

Home air nicotine levels and urinary cotinine excretion in preschool children.

We examined the extent of correlation between home air nicotine levels and urine cotinine/creatinine ratios (CCR) in 27 children who attended a research day care program where they were not exposed to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) during the daytime hours. Average concentrations of nicotine in home air were determined by active air sampling during the evening and night hours on 2 consecutive days. Urine samples for cotinine and creatinine determinations were collected before, during, and after the two sampling periods. In addition, four sequential weekly urine samples for CCR were obtained from study children to determine the extent to which single determinations of CCR were representative for individual children. Fifteen children resided in homes with smokers, and 12 did not. Urine CCR consistently distinguished most exposed and unexposed children. However, three exposed children had urine CCRs that clustered routinely around the criterion CCR (30 ng/mg cotinine-creatinine) that best distinguished exposed and unexposed children. In children exposed to ETS in the home, there was a significant correlation between average home air nicotine levels and the average logarithm of urine CCR the two mornings after the home air monitoring periods (r = 0.68; p = 0.006). In study children, urine CCRs were remarkably stable over the 1-month observation period. Rank correlation coefficients for sequential weekly determinations of CCR were consistently greater than r = 0.88; p less than 0.0001.