Habitat percolation transition undermines sustainability in social-ecological agricultural systems.

Steady increases in human population size and resource consumption are driving rampant agricultural expansion and intensification. Habitat loss caused by agriculture puts the integrity of ecosystems at risk and threatens the persistence of human societies that rely on ecosystem services. We develop a spatially explicit model describing the coupled dynamics of an agricultural landscape and human population size to assess the effect of different land-use management strategies, defined by agricultural clustering and intensification, on the sustainability of the social-ecological system. We show how agricultural expansion can cause natural habitats to undergo a percolation transition leading to abrupt habitat fragmentation that feedbacks on human's decision making, aggravating landscape degradation. We found that agricultural intensification to spare land from conversion is a successful strategy only in highly natural landscapes, and that clustering agricultural land is the most effective measure to preserve large connected natural fragments, prevent severe fragmentation and thus, enhance sustainability.

Unequal access to resources undermines global sustainability.

Within a global society there exist various land use patterns, inequality, and the movement of people and goods. The various practices and behaviours associated with our current society raise questions about the future sustainability of the human population and the natural environment. We derive a simplified model of the global socio-ecological system in an effort to explore the connections between human well-being and land resources, specifically looking at resource accessibility, conservation initiatives and human migration between two economically diverse regions. We find that the spatial aspect of a global system with two distinct regions allows for faster development of technology, higher peaks in population size, greater natural land degradation, and generally speaking lower population well-being in the long-term. The unequal access to resources and differences in technological progress, alter the outcome of land management (i.e., conservation) and social behaviours (i.e., migration). We conclude that any socio-ecological management practices should be conscientious of the diversity in land access, population size, population well-being and development within the global society, as the potential for unintended consequences is high.

Agricultural land use and the sustainability of social-ecological systems.

Agricultural land expansion and intensification, driven by human consumption of agricultural goods, are among the major threats to environmental degradation and biodiversity conservation. Land degradation can ultimately hamper agricultural production through a decrease in ecosystem services. Thus, designing viable land use policies is a key sustainability challenge. We develop a model describing the coupled dynamics of human demography and landscape composition, while imposing a trade-off between agricultural expansion and in-tensification. We model land use strategies spanning from low-intensity agriculture and high land conversion rates per person to high-intensity agriculture and low land conversion rates per person; and explore their consequences on the long-term dynamics of the coupled human-land system. We seek to characterise the strategies' viability in the long run; and understand the mechanisms that potentially lead to large-scale land degradation and population collapse due to resource scarcity. We show that the viability of land use strategies strongly depends on the land's intrinsic recovery rate. We also find that socio-ecological collapses occur when agricultural intensification is not accompanied by a sufficient decrease in land conversion. Based on these findings we stress the dangers of uninformed land use planning and the importance of precautionary behaviour for land use management and land use policy design.

Novel technique for prevention of rotation of the distal phalanx relative to the hoof wall in horses with acute laminitis.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the holding capacity of a 5.5-mm-diameter cortical bone screw when placed in the third phalanx (P3) of horses and assess whether screw placement through the dorsal hoof wall into P3 would be tolerated by clinically normal horses and would alleviate signs of pain and prevent P3 rotation in horses with oligofructose-induced laminitis. ANIMALS: 40 limbs from 10 equine cadavers and 19 clinically normal adult horses. PROCEDURES: In part 1 of a 3-part study, a 5.5-mm-diameter cortical bone screw was inserted by use of a lag-screw technique through the dorsal hoof wall midline into P3 of 40 cadaveric limbs and tested to failure to determine screw pullout force. In part 2, 6 horses had 5.5-mm-diameter cortical bone screws placed in both forefeet as described for part 1. Screws were removed 4 days after placement. Horses were monitored for lameness before and for 2 weeks after screw removal. In part 3, 13 horses were randomly assigned to serve as controls (n = 3) or undergo screw placement without (group 2; 6) or with (group 3; 4) a washer. Following the acquisition of baseline data, horses were sedated and administered oligofructose (10 g/kg) via a stomach tube. Twenty-four hours later, screws were placed as previously described in both forefeet of horses in groups 2 and 3. Horses were assessed every 4 hours, and radiographic images of the feet were obtained at 96 and 120 hours after oligofructose administration. Horses were euthanized, and the feet were harvested for histologic examination. RESULTS: The mean ± SD screw pullout force was 3,908.7 ± 1,473.4 N, and it was positively affected by the depth of screw insertion into P3. Horses of part 2 tolerated screw placement and removal well and did not become lame. All horses of part 3 developed signs of acute lameness, and the distance between P3 and the dorsal hoof wall increased slightly over time. The change in the ratio of the dorsal hoof wall width at the extensor process of P3 to that at the tip of P3 over time was the only variable significantly associated with treatment. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Placement of a 5.5-mm-diameter cortical bone screw through the dorsal hoof wall into P3 had sufficient holding power to counteract the pull of the deep digital flexor tendon in approximately 500-kg horses, and placement of such a screw was well tolerated by clinically normal horses but did not alleviate signs of pain in horses with oligofructose-induced laminitis. Further research is necessary before this technique can be recommended for horses with naturally occurring acute laminitis.

How ecological feedbacks between human population and land cover influence sustainability.

It is estimated that the Earth's biocapacity is unable to meet current demands, which begs the question: is a sustainable future possible for both humans and the environment? The UN projects a human population of approximately 11 billion by the end of the 21st century; requiring additional agricultural land, greater demands for natural resources, and technological advancements. We model human population over the next century, emphasizing feedbacks between natural and agricultural resource availability and human demography. We argue that an intensive agriculture approach to feeding the growing population is ill-conceived, without considering biodiversity and ecosystem services (e.g., nutrient cycling, pollination, water purification, pest control). The productivity of agricultural land and human population dynamics are dependent on the area of natural land-generally, tipping at 5 billion ha of natural land (approximately 40% of the Earth's terrestrial area). Furthermore, our model shows that an imprudent proactive approach (i.e., focusing on agriculture and ignoring ecosystem services) limits the success of reactive measures (i.e., restoration) in the future, while the inability to react to changes and recover natural systems leads to human population decline.

Use of crown height of the maxillary first molar tooth to approximate the age of horses.

OBJECTIVE To identify whether age, sex, or breed is associated with crown height of the left and right maxillary first molar tooth (M1) measured on CT images, to develop a mathematical model to determine age of horses by use of M1 crown height, and to determine the correlation between M1 crown height measured on radiographic and CT images. SAMPLE CT (n = 735) and radiographic images (35) of the heads of horses. PROCEDURES Crown height of left and right M1 was digitally measured on axial CT views. Height was measured on a lateral radiographic image when available. Linear regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with crown height. Half the data set was subsequently used to generate a regression model to predict age on the basis of M1 crown height, and the other half was used to validate accuracy of the predictions. RESULTS M1 crown height decreased with increasing age, but the rate of decrease slowed with increasing age. Height also differed by sex and breed. The model most accurately reflected age of horses < 10 years old, although age was overestimated by a mean of 0.1 years. The correlation between radiographic and CT crown height of M1 was 0.91; the mean for radiographic measurements was 2.5 mm greater than for CT measurements. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE M1 crown height can be used to predict age of horses. Results for CT images correlated well with those for radiographic images. Studies are needed to develop a comparable model with results for radiographic images.

Do we have to choose between feeding the human population and conserving nature? Modelling the global dependence of people on ecosystem services.

The ability of the human population to continue growing depends strongly on the ecosystem services provided by nature. Nature, however, is becoming more and more degraded as the number of individuals increases, which could potentially threaten the future well-being of the human population. We use a dynamic model to conceptualise links between the global proportion of natural habitats and human demography, through four categories of ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural recreational and informational) to investigate the common future of nature and humanity in terms of size and well-being. Our model shows that there is generally a trade-off between the quality of life and human population size and identifies four short-term scenarios, corresponding to three long-term steady states of the model. First, human population could experience declines if nature becomes too degraded and regulating services diminish; second the majority of the population could be in a famine state, where the population continues to grow with minimal food provision. Between these scenarios, a desirable future scenario emerges from the model. It occurs if humans convert enough land to feed all the population, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we find a fourth scenario, which combines famine and a decline in the population because of an overexploitation of land leading to a decrease in food production. Human demography is embedded in natural dynamics; the two factors should be considered together if we are to identify a desirable future for both nature and humans.

Differential effects of offspring and maternal inbreeding on egg laying and offspring performance in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides.

We investigate the effect of offspring and maternal inbreeding on maternal and offspring traits associated with early offspring fitness in the burying beetle Nicrophorus vespilloides. We conducted two experiments. In the first experiment, we manipulated maternal inbreeding only (keeping offspring outbred) by generating mothers that were outbred, moderately inbred or highly inbred. Meanwhile, in the second experiment, we manipulated offspring inbreeding only (keeping females outbred) by generating offspring that were outbred, moderately inbred or highly inbred. In both experiments, we monitored subsequent effects on breeding success (number of larvae), maternal traits (clutch size, delay until laying, laying skew, laying spread and egg size) and offspring traits (hatching success, larval survival, duration of larval development and average larval mass). Maternal inbreeding reduced breeding success, and this effect was mediated through lower hatching success and greater larval mortality. Furthermore, inbred mothers produced clutches where egg laying was less skewed towards the early part of laying than outbred females. This reduction in the skew in egg laying is beneficial for larval survival, suggesting that inbred females adjusted their laying patterns facultatively, thereby partially compensating for the detrimental effects of maternal inbreeding on offspring. Finally, we found evidence of a nonlinear effect of offspring inbreeding coefficient on number of larvae dispersing. Offspring inbreeding affected larval survival and larval development time but also unexpectedly affected maternal traits (clutch size and delay until laying), suggesting that females adjust clutch size and the delay until laying in response to being related to their mate.

Alternative stable states and the sustainability of forests, grasslands, and agriculture.

Endangered forest-grassland mosaics interspersed with expanding agriculture and silviculture occur across many parts of the world, including the southern Brazilian highlands. This natural mosaic ecosystem is thought to reflect alternative stable states driven by threshold responses of recruitment to fire and moisture regimes. The role of adaptive human behavior in such systems remains understudied, despite its pervasiveness and the fact that such ecosystems can exhibit complex dynamics. We develop a nonlinear mathematical model of coupled human-environment dynamics in mosaic systems and social processes regarding conservation and economic land valuation. Our objective is to better understand how the coupled dynamics respond to changes in ecological and social conditions. The model is parameterized with southern Brazilian data on mosaic ecology, land-use profits, and questionnaire results concerning landowner preferences and conservation values. We find that the mosaic presently resides at a crucial juncture where relatively small changes in social conditions can generate a wide variety of possible outcomes, including complete loss of mosaics; large-amplitude, long-term oscillations between land states that preclude ecosystem stability; and conservation of the mosaic even to the exclusion of agriculture/silviculture. In general, increasing the time horizon used for conservation decision making is more likely to maintain mosaic stability. In contrast, increasing the inherent conservation value of either forests or grasslands is more likely to induce large oscillations-especially for forests-due to feedback from rarity-based conservation decisions. Given the potential for complex dynamics, empirically grounded nonlinear dynamical models should play a larger role in policy formulation for human-environment mosaic ecosystems.

Landowner perceptions of the value of natural forest and natural grassland in a mosaic ecosystem in southern Brazil.

The forest-grassland mosaics of southern Brazil have been subject to many land use and policy changes over the decades. Like many grasslands around the world, the Campos grasslands are declining with few conservation efforts underway. In contrast, forests receive much attention and many incentives. It is hypothesized that perception of land cover has the potential to shape ecosystems. Here we conduct a questionnaire to further our understanding of decision-making practices that alter landscapes (Campos grassland, Araucaria forest, agriculture and plantation) and direct land policies in the region. Our analysis reveals that plantations are significantly less desirable than the other landscape types. However, plantation land use has increased by 87 % over the past few decades, as a result of industry and government incentives. The proportions of other landscape types have remained consistent over the past two decades. Restoration of native vegetation is not a priority of landowners and restoration would require a financial incentive.

Carrot or stick? Modelling how landowner behavioural responses can cause incentive-based forest governance to backfire.

Mitigating the negative impacts of declining worldwide forest cover remains a significant socio-ecological challenge, due to the dominant role of human decision-making. Here we use a Markov chain model of land-use dynamics to examine the impact of governance on forest cover in a region. Each land parcel can be either forested or barren (deforested), and landowners decide whether to deforest their parcel according to perceived value (utility). We focus on three governance strategies: yearly incentive for conservation, one-time penalty for deforestation and one-time incentive for reforestation. The incentive and penalty are incorporated into the expected utility of forested land, which decreases the net gain of deforestation. By analyzing the equilibrium and stability of the landscape dynamics, we observe four possible outcomes: a stationary-forested landscape, a stationary-deforested landscape, an unstable landscape fluctuating near the equilibrium, and a cyclic-forested landscape induced by synchronized deforestation. We find that the two incentive-based strategies often result in highly fluctuating forest cover over decadal time scales or longer, and in a few cases, reforestation incentives actually decrease the average forest cover. In contrast, a penalty for deforestation results in the stable persistence of forest cover (generally >30%). The idea that larger conservation incentives will always yield higher and more stable forest cover is not supported in our findings. The decision to deforest is influenced by more than a simple, "rational" cost-benefit analysis: social learning and myopic, stochastic decision-making also have important effects. We conclude that design of incentive programs may need to account for potential counter-productive long-term effects due to behavioural feedbacks.