Prediction of Individual Disease Progression Including Parameter Uncertainty in Rare Neurodegenerative Diseases: The Example of Autosomal-Recessive Spastic Ataxia Charlevoix Saguenay (ARSACS).

The aim of this study was to develop a model to predict individual subject disease trajectories including parameter uncertainty and accounting for missing data in rare neurological diseases, showcased by the ultra-rare disease Autosomal-Recessive Spastic Ataxia Charlevoix Saguenay (ARSACS). We modelled the change in SARA (Scale for Assessment and Rating of Ataxia) score versus Time Since Onset of symptoms using non-linear mixed effect models for a population of 173 patients with ARSACS included in the prospective real-world multicenter Autosomal Recessive Cerebellar Ataxia (ARCA) registry. We used the Multivariate Imputation Chained Equation (MICE) algorithm to impute missing covariates, and a covariate selection procedure with a pooled p-value to account for the multiply imputed data sets. We then investigated the impact of covariates and population parameter uncertainty on the prediction of the individual trajectories up to 5 years after their last visit. A four-parameter logistic function was selected. Men were estimated to have a 25% lower SARA score at disease onset and a moderately higher maximum SARA score, and time to progression (T50) was estimated to be 35% lower in patients with age of onset over 15 years. The population disease progression rate started slowly at 0.1 points per year peaking to a maximum of 0.8 points per year (at 36.8 years since onset of symptoms). The prediction intervals for SARA scores 5 years after the last visit were large (median 7.4 points, Q1-Q3: 6.4-8.5); their size was mostly driven by individual parameter uncertainty and individual disease progression rate at that time.

Comparison of Peritendinous Hyaluronan Injections Versus Extracorporeal Shock Wave Therapy in the Treatment of Painful Achilles' Tendinopathy: A Randomized Clinical Efficacy and Safety Study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the safety and efficacy of hyaluronan (HA) injections with standard extracorporeal shock wave therapy (ESWT) in the treatment of painful midportion Achilles' tendinopathy. DESIGN: Multinational, prospective, randomized controlled, blinded-observer trial. SETTING: Ambulatory care. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (N=62) with Achilles' midportion tendinopathy for ≥6 weeks and a pain score of at least 40mm (Huskisson visual analog scale [VAS], 100mm) were randomized, and 59 were analyzed in the intention-to-treat data set. There were no withdrawals because of adverse effects. INTERVENTIONS: Two peritendinous HA injections versus 3 ESWT applications at weekly intervals. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary efficacy criterion was changed from the Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Achilles' questionnaire (VISA-A) score to the percent change in pain (VAS) at 3 months posttreatment, compared with baseline values. Main secondary parameters were VISA-A, Clinical Global Impression (CGI), and clinical parameters. RESULTS: HA treatment provided a clinically relevant improvement in Achilles' midportion tendinopathy. A large superiority of the HA group, compared with ESWT application, was observed for percent change in pain (VAS), and this superiority was proven to be statistically significant (Mann-Whitney statistic [MW]=.7507 with P=.0030 lower than required α=.025 significance level 1-sided; Mann-Whitney U test) at 3 months posttreatment. Similar findings for HA were also observed at 4 weeks (MW=.6425, P=.0304) and 6 months (MW=.7172, P=.0018). Advantage of HA treatment was confirmed by VISA-A questionnaire, CGI, and clinical parameters. Ten adverse events, 4 in the HA group and 6 in the ESWT group, were reported, but none were classified as serious. CONCLUSIONS: Two peritendinous HA injections showed greater treatment success in Achilles' midportion tendinopathy compared with standard ESWT.