Deviations in criminal filings of child abuse and neglect during COVID-19 from forecasted models: An analysis of the state of Oklahoma, USA.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to risk factors for child abuse and neglect and disrupted conventional abuse surveillance. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to assess how counts of criminal charges have been affected by COVID-19 social distancing measures and related policy changes. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: This study used publicly available court filings pertaining to child abuse and neglect from Jan 1, 2010 to June 30, 2020. METHODS: Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) algorithms were constructed with case data from January 2010 to January 2020 to forecast trends in criminal charges for February to June 2020. These forecasted values were then compared to actual charges filed for this time period. RESULTS: Criminal cases filed between February and June 2020, had an overall 25.7 percent lower average than forecasted. All individual months had progressively lower cases than forecasted with the exception of March. June had the largest deviation from forecasted with 60.1 percent fewer cases than predicted. CONCLUSIONS: Although risk factors for child abuse have increased due to COVID-19, these findings demonstrate a declining trend in child abuse charges. Rather than a decreasing incidence of child abuse and neglect, it is more likely that less cases are being reported. The results warrant immediate action and further investigation in order to address the dangers this pandemic poses for children in abusive situations.

Legal Outcomes of Suspected Maltreatment Cases Evaluated by a Child Abuse Pediatrician as Part of a Multidisciplinary Team Investigation.

Child abuse pediatricians often carry the stigma that their sole role is to diagnose maltreatment. In reality, child abuse pediatricians use their clinical experience and current evidence-based medicine to make the best medical diagnoses for the children they evaluate. To better understand the legal conclusion of suspected maltreatment cases with medical examinations, this study sought to: (i) evaluate the percentage of children seen for suspected maltreatment that led to a clinical diagnosis of maltreatment, (ii) determine the number and type of criminal charges associated, and (iii) analyze the legal outcomes of cases as they proceeded through the judicial system. This study retrospectively reviewed the legal outcomes of 1698 children medically evaluated in 2013-2014 as part of an investigation by a multidisciplinary team at a children's advocacy center in a mid-sized city in Oklahoma. Data were collected from electronic medical records, the district attorney's office, and a public court docket. Of the original cohort, 477 (28.09%) children yielded a medical diagnosis of at least one type of maltreatment. Further analysis yielded 115 unique court cases involving 138 defendants and 151 children. A total of 286 charges were filed resulting in 190 convictions. While maltreatment allegations yield a high number of children that must be evaluated, a comprehensive medical evaluation helps determine which cases do not have sufficient medical findings for a diagnosis of maltreatment. The findings in this study indicate that a majority of suspected maltreatment cases seen by child abuse pediatricians did not result in criminal court outcomes.