GPs' perspectives on diagnostic tests for children: a qualitative interview study.

BACKGROUND: Most healthcare contacts for children in the UK occur in general practice. Diagnostic tests can be beneficial in narrowing differential diagnoses; however, there is substantial variation in the use of tests for children in general practice. Unwarranted variation in testing can lead to variation in quality of care and may exacerbate health inequities. To our knowledge, no previous study has tried to understand why variation in testing exists for children in general practice. AIM: To explore GPs' perspectives on using diagnostic tests for children in primary care and the underlying drivers of variation. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative study in which semi-structured interviews were conducted with GPs and trainee GPs in England. METHOD: Interviews were conducted with 18 GPs and two trainee GPs between April and June 2023. The interviews were transcribed and analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. RESULTS: GPs reflected that their approach to testing in children differed from their approach to testing in adults: their threshold to test was higher, and their threshold to refer to specialists was lower. GPs' perceptions of test utility varied, including objective testing for asthma. Perceived drivers of variation in testing were intrinsic (clinician-specific) factors relating to their risk tolerance and experience; and extrinsic factors, including disease prevalence, parental concern and expectations of health care, workforce changes leading to fragmentation in care, time constraints, and differences in guidelines. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study identify actionable issues for clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to address gaps in education, evidence, and guidance, reduce unwarranted differences in test use, and improve the quality of health care delivered to children in general practice.

The quality of paediatric asthma guidelines: evidence underpinning diagnostic test recommendations from a meta-epidemiological study.

BACKGROUND: Asthma is one of the most frequent reasons children visit a general practitioner (GP). The diagnosis of childhood asthma is challenging, and a variety of diagnostic tests for asthma exist. GPs may refer to clinical practice guidelines when deciding which tests, if any, are appropriate, but the quality of these guidelines is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To determine (i) the methodological quality and reporting of paediatric guidelines for the diagnosis of childhood asthma in primary care, and (ii) the strength of evidence supporting diagnostic test recommendations. DESIGN: Meta-epidemiological study of English-language guidelines from the United Kingdom and other high-income countries with comparable primary care systems including diagnostic testing recommendations for childhood asthma in primary care. The AGREE-II tool was used to assess the quality and reporting of the guidelines. The quality of the evidence was assessed using GRADE. RESULTS: Eleven guidelines met the eligibility criteria. The methodology and reporting quality varied across the AGREE II domains (median score 4.5 out of 7, range 2-6). The quality of evidence supporting diagnostic recommendations was generally of very low quality. All guidelines recommended the use of spirometry and reversibility testing for children aged ≥5 years, however, the recommended spirometry thresholds for diagnosis differed across guidelines. There were disagreements in testing recommendations for 3 of the 7 included tests. CONCLUSIONS: The variable quality of guidelines, lack of good quality evidence, and inconsistent recommendations for diagnostic tests may contribute to poor clinician adherence to guidelines and variation in testing for diagnosing childhood asthma.

Why COVID-19 modelling of progression and prevention fails to translate to the real-world.

Mathematical models were used widely to inform policy during the COVID pandemic. However, there is a poor understanding of their limitations and how they influence decision-making. We used systematic review search methods to find early modelling studies that determined the reproduction number and analysed its use and application to interventions and policy in the UK. Up to March 2020, we found 42 reproduction number estimates (39 based on Chinese data: R0 range 2.1-6.47). Several biases affect the quality of modelling studies that are infrequently discussed, and many factors contribute to significant differences in the results of individual studies that go beyond chance. The sources of effect estimates incorporated into mathematical models are unclear. There is often a lack of a relationship between transmission estimates and the timing of imposed restrictions, which is further affected by the lag in reporting. Modelling studies lack basic evidence-based methods that aid their quality assessment, reporting and critical appraisal. If used judiciously, models may be helpful, especially if they openly present the uncertainties and use sensitivity analyses extensively, which need to consider and explicitly discuss the limitations of the evidence. However, until the methodological and ethical issues are resolved, predictive models should be used cautiously.

A Hierarchical Framework for Assessing Transmission Causality of Respiratory Viruses.

Systematic reviews of 591 primary studies of the modes of transmission for SARS-CoV-2 show significant methodological shortcomings and heterogeneity in the design, conduct, testing, and reporting of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. While this is partly understandable at the outset of a pandemic, evidence rules of proof for assessing the transmission of this virus are needed for present and future pandemics of viral respiratory pathogens. We review the history of causality assessment related to microbial etiologies with a focus on respiratory viruses and suggest a hierarchy of evidence to integrate clinical, epidemiologic, molecular, and laboratory perspectives on transmission. The hierarchy, if applied to future studies, should narrow the uncertainty over the twin concepts of causality and transmission of human respiratory viruses. We attempt to address the translational gap between the current research evidence and the assessment of causality in the transmission of respiratory viruses with a focus on SARS-CoV-2. Experimentation, consistency, and independent replication of research alongside our proposed framework provide a chain of evidence that can reduce the uncertainty over the transmission of respiratory viruses and increase the level of confidence in specific modes of transmission, informing the measures that should be undertaken to prevent transmission.

Enhancing opportunistic recruitment and retention in primary care trials: lessons learned from a qualitative study embedded in the Cranberry for Urinary Tract Infection (CUTI) feasibility trial.

BACKGROUND: Opportunistic recruitment in primary care is challenging due to the inherent unpredictability of incident conditions, and workload and time pressures. Many clinical trials do not recruit to target, leading to equivocal answers to research questions. Learning from the experiences of patients and recruiters to trials of incident conditions has the potential to improve recruitment and retention to future trials, thereby enhancing the quality and impact of research findings. The aim of this research was to learn from the trial experiences of UTI patients and recruiters to the Cranberry for UTI (CUTI) trial, to help plan an adequately powered trial of similar design. METHODS: One-to-one semi-structured interviews were embedded within the CUTI feasibility trial, an open-label, randomised feasibility trial of cranberry extract for symptoms of acute, uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infection (UTI) in primary care. Interviews were conducted with a sample of: CUTI trial participants; non-CUTI trial UTI patients; and, recruiters to the CUTI trial. Verbatim transcripts were analysed thematically. RESULTS: Twenty-six patients with UTI and eight recruiters (nurses and GPs) to the CUTI trial were interviewed. Three themes were developed around: reasons for participating in research; barriers to opportunistic recruitment; and, UTI patients' experiences of trial procedures. Recruiters found that targeted electronic prompts directed at healthcare practitioners based in clinics where patients with incident conditions were likely to present (e.g. minor illness clinic) were more effective than generic prompts (e.g. desk prompts) at filtering patients from their usual clinical pathway to research clinics. Using a script to explain the delayed antibiotic trial group to patients was found to be helpful, and may have served to boost recruitment. For UTI patients, using an electronic diary to rate their symptoms was considered an acceptable medium, and often preferable to using a paper diary or mobile phone application. CONCLUSIONS: The use of targeted prompts directed at clinicians, a script to explain trial groups that may be deemed less desirable, and an appropriate diary format for patient-reported outcomes, may help to improve trial recruitment and retention.

Recommendations of high-quality clinical practice guidelines related to the process of starting dialysis: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The optimal time for initiation of dialysis and which modality to choose as the starting therapy is currently unclear. This systematic review aimed to assess the recommendations across high-quality clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) related to the start of dialysis. METHODS: We systematically searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, LILACS, and databases of organisations that develop CPGs between September 2008 to August 2021 for CPGs that addressed recommendations on the timing of initiation of dialysis, selection of dialysis modality, and interventions to support the decision-making process to select a dialysis modality. We used the Appraisal of Guidelines for Research and Evaluation instrument to assess the methodological quality of the CPGs and included only high-quality CPGs. This study is registered in PROSPERO, number CRD42018110325. RESULTS: We included 12 high-quality CPGs. Six CPGs addressed recommendations related to the timing of initiating dialysis, and all agreed on starting dialysis in the presence of symptoms or signs. Six CPGs addressed recommendations related to the selection of modality but varied greatly in their content. Nine CPGs addressed recommendations related to interventions to support the decision-making process. Eight CPGs agreed on recommended educational programs that include information about dialysis options. One CPG considered using patient decision aids a strong recommendation. LIMITATIONS: We could have missed potentially relevant guidelines since we limited our search to CPGs published from 2008, and we set up a cut-off point of 60% in domains of the rigour of development and editorial independence. CONCLUSION: High-quality CPGs related to the process of starting dialysis were consistent in initiating dialysis in the presence of symptoms or signs and offering patients education at the point of decision-making. There was variability in how CPGs addressed the issue of dialysis modality selection. CPGs should improve strategies on putting recommendations into practice and the quality of evidence to aid decision-making for patients. REGISTRATION: The protocol of this systematic review has been registered in the international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO) under the registration number: CRD CRD42018110325. https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/CRD42018110325.

Non-antibiotic treatment of acute urinary tract infection in primary care: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The views of women with acute, uncomplicated urinary tract infection (auUTI) on the acceptability of non-antibiotic treatment options are poorly understood. AIM: To establish women's thoughts on and experience of non-antibiotic treatment for auUTIs. DESIGN AND SETTING: Qualitative interview study with primary care patients in Oxfordshire, UK, embedded within the Cranberry for Urinary Tract Infection (CUTI) feasibility trial. METHOD: One-to-one, semi-structured interviews were conducted between August 2019 and January 2020 with some CUTI trial participants and some patients who were not part of the CUTI trial who had experienced at least one urinary tract infection (UTI) in the preceding 12 months in Oxfordshire, UK. Interviews were analysed using thematic analysis. RESULTS: In total, 26 interviews were conducted and analysed. Women expected to receive an immediate antibiotic for their UTI but were aware of the potential harms of this approach. They were keen to find a non-antibiotic, 'natural' alternative that could effectively manage their symptoms. In certain situations (early illness, milder illness, and with no important upcoming engagements), women indicated they would be prepared to postpone antibiotic treatment by up to 3 days, especially if offered an interim non-antibiotic option with perceived therapeutic potential. CONCLUSION: Many women with auUTIs are open to trying non-antibiotic treatments first in certain situations. There is scope for more dialogue between primary care clinicians and patients with auUTI around delaying antibiotic treatment and using non-antibiotic options initially, which could reduce antibiotic consumption for this common infection.

Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) from pre and asymptomatic infected individuals: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: The role of SARS-Cov-2-infected persons who develop symptoms after testing (presymptomatics) or not at all (asymptomatics) in the pandemic spread is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To determine infectiousness and probable contribution of asymptomatic persons (at the time of testing) to pandemic SARS-CoV-2 spread. DATA SOURCES: LitCovid, medRxiv, Google Scholar, and WHO Covid-19 databases (to 31 March 2021) and references in included studies. STUDY ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies with a proven or hypothesized transmission chain based either on serial PCR cycle threshold readings and/or viral culture and/or gene sequencing, with adequate follow-up. PARTICIPANTS: People exposed to SARS-CoV-2 within 2-14 days to index asymptomatic (at time of observation) infected individuals. INTERVENTIONS: Reliability of symptom and signs was assessed within contemporary knowledge; transmission likelihood was assessed using adapted causality criteria. METHODS: Systematic review. We contacted all included studies' corresponding authors requesting further details. RESULTS: We included 18 studies from a diverse setting with substantial methodological variation (this field lacks standardized methodology). At initial testing, prevalence of asymptomatic cases was 12.5-100%. Of these, 6-100% were later determined to be presymptomatic, this proportion varying according to setting, methods of case ascertainment and population. Nursing/care home facilities reported high rates of presymptomatic: 50-100% (n = 3 studies). Fourteen studies were classified as high risk of, and four studies as at moderate risk of symptom ascertainment bias. High-risk studies may be less likely to distinguish between presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases. Six asymptomatic studies and four presymptomatic studies reported culturing infectious virus; data were too sparse to determine infectiousness duration. Three studies provided evidence of possible and three of probable/likely asymptomatic transmission; five studies provided possible and two probable/likely presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 transmission. CONCLUSION: High-quality studies provide probable evidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission from presymptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, with highly variable estimated transmission rates.

SARS-CoV-2 and the role of fomite transmission: a systematic review.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 RNA has been detected in fomites which suggests the virus could be transmitted via inanimate objects. However, there is uncertainty about the mechanistic pathway for such transmissions. Our objective was to identify, appraise and summarise the evidence from primary studies and systematic reviews assessing the role of fomites in transmission.  Methods: This review is part of an Open Evidence Review on Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We conduct ongoing searches using WHO Covid-19 Database, LitCovid, medRxiv, and Google Scholar; assess study quality based on five criteria and report important findings on an ongoing basis. Results: We found 64 studies: 63 primary studies and one systematic review (n=35). The settings for primary studies were predominantly in hospitals (69.8%) including general wards, ICU and SARS-CoV-2 isolation wards. There were variations in the study designs including timing of sample collection, hygiene procedures, ventilation settings and cycle threshold. The overall quality of reporting was low to moderate. The frequency of positive SARS-CoV-2 tests across 51 studies (using RT-PCR) ranged from 0.5% to 75%. Cycle threshold values ranged from 20.8 to 44.1. Viral concentrations were reported in 17 studies; however, discrepancies in the methods for estimation prevented comparison. Eleven studies (17.5%) attempted viral culture, but none found a cytopathic effect. Results of the systematic review showed that healthcare settings were most frequently tested (25/35, 71.4%), but laboratories reported the highest frequency of contaminated surfaces (20.5%, 17/83).  Conclusions: The majority of studies report identification of SARS-CoV-2 RNA on inanimate surfaces; however, there is a lack of evidence demonstrating the recovery of viable virus. Lack of positive viral cultures suggests that the risk of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through fomites is low. Heterogeneity in study designs and methodology prevents comparisons of findings across studies. Standardized guidelines for conducting and reporting research on fomite transmission is warranted.

SARS-CoV-2 and the role of orofecal transmission: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Modes of transmission of SARS-CoV-2 are of key public health importance. SARS-CoV-2 has been detected in the feces of some COVID-19 patients, suggesting the possibility that the virus could, in addition to droplet and fomite transmission, be transmitted via the orofecal route. METHODS: This review is part of an Open Evidence Review on Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19. We conduct ongoing searches using WHO COVID-19 Database, LitCovid, medRxiv, and Google Scholar; assess study quality based on five criteria and report important findings. Where necessary, authors are contacted for further details on the content of their articles. RESULTS: We include searches up until 20 December 2020. We included 110 relevant studies: 76 primary observational studies or reports, and 35 reviews (one cohort study also included a review) examining the potential role of orofecal transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Of the observational studies, 37 were done in China. A total of 48 studies (n=9,081 patients) reported single cases, case series or cohort data on individuals with COVID-19 diagnosis or their contacts and 46 (96%) detected binary RT-PCR with 535 out of 1358 samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 (average 39.4%). The results suggest a long duration of fecal shedding, often recorded after respiratory samples tested negative, and symptoms of gastrointestinal disease were reported in several studies. Twenty-nine studies reported finding SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater, river water or toilet areas. Six studies attempted viral culture from COVID-19 patients' fecal samples: culture was successful in 3 of 6 studies, and one study demonstrated invasion of the virus into intestinal epithelial cells. CONCLUSIONS: Varied observational and mechanistic evidence suggests SARS-CoV-2 can infect and be shed from the gastrointestinal tract, including some data demonstrating viral culture in fecal samples. To fully assess these risks, quantitative data on infectious virus in these settings and infectious dose are needed.

SARS-CoV-2 and the role of close contact in transmission: a systematic review.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 transmission has been reported to be associated with close contact with infected individuals. However, the mechanistic pathway for transmission in close contact settings is unclear. Our objective was to identify, appraise and summarise the evidence from studies assessing the role of close contact in SARS-CoV-2 transmission.  Methods: This review is part of an Open Evidence Review on Transmission Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We conduct ongoing searches using WHO Covid-19 Database, LitCovid, medRxiv, PubMed and Google Scholar; assess study quality based on the QUADAS-2 criteria and report important findings on an ongoing basis. Results: We included 278 studies: 258 primary studies and 20 systematic reviews. The settings for primary studies were predominantly in home/quarantine facilities (39.5%) and acute care hospitals (12%). The overall reporting quality of the studies was low-to-moderate. There was significant heterogeneity in design and methodology. The frequency of attack rates (PCR testing) varied between 2.1-75%; attack rates were highest in prison and wedding venues, and in households. The frequency of secondary attack rates was 0.3-100% with rates highest in home/quarantine settings. Three studies showed no transmission if the index case was a recurrent infection. Viral culture was performed in four studies of which three found replication-competent virus; culture results were negative where index cases had recurrent infections. Eighteen studies performed genomic sequencing with phylogenetic analysis - the completeness of genomic similarity ranged from 77-100%. Findings from systematic reviews showed that children were significantly less likely to transmit SARS-CoV-2 and household contact was associated with a significantly increased risk of infection. Conclusions: The evidence from published studies demonstrates that SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted in close contact settings. The risk of transmission is greater in household contacts. There was a wide variation in methodology. Standardized guidelines for reporting transmission in close contact settings should be developed.

Cranberry Extract for Symptoms of Acute, Uncomplicated Urinary Tract Infection: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Effective alternatives to antibiotics for alleviating symptoms of acute infections may be appealing to patients and enhance antimicrobial stewardship. Cranberry-based products are already in wide use for symptoms of acute urinary tract infection (UTI). The aim of this review was to identify and critically appraise the supporting evidence. METHODS: The protocol was registered on PROSPERO. Searches were conducted of Medline, Embase, Amed, Cinahl, The Cochrane library, Clinicaltrials.gov and WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform. We included randomised clinical trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies evaluating the effect of cranberry extract in the management of acute, uncomplicated UTI on symptoms, antibiotic use, microbiological assessment, biochemical assessment and adverse events. Study risk of bias assessments were made using Cochrane criteria. RESULTS: We included three RCTs (n = 688) judged to be at moderate risk of bias. One RCT (n = 309) found that advice to consume cranberry juice had no statistically significant effect on UTI frequency symptoms (mean difference (MD) -0.01 (95% CI: -0.37 to 0.34), p = 0.94)), on UTI symptoms of feeling unwell (MD 0.02 (95% CI: -0.36 to 0.39), p = 0.93)) or on antibiotic use (odds ratio 1.27 (95% CI: 0.47 to 3.43), p = 0.64), when compared with promoting drinking water. One RCT (n = 319) found no symptomatic benefit from combining cranberry juice with immediate antibiotics for an acute UTI, compared with placebo juice combined with immediate antibiotics. In one RCT (n = 60), consumption of cranberry extract capsules was associated with a within-group improvement in urinary symptoms and Escherichia coli load at day 10 compared with baseline (p < 0.01), which was not found in untreated controls (p = 0.72). Two RCTs were under-powered to detect differences between groups for outcomes of interest. There were no serious adverse effects associated with cranberry consumption. CONCLUSION: The current evidence base for or against the use of cranberry extract in the management of acute, uncomplicated UTIs is inadequate; rigorous trials are needed.

24-h ambulatory blood pressure versus clinic blood pressure as predictors of cardiovascular risk: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the usefulness of ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) in predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Our objective was to compare the prognostic value of ABP versus clinic blood pressure (BP) in CVD. METHODS: We conducted electronic searches on Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane library up to July 2018. We included prospective longitudinal studies that compared 24-h ABP with clinic BP measurement in adults. Our main outcomes were all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and/or CVD events. We assessed study quality based on four domains and pooled data using a random effects model of STATA for meta-analyses. RESULTS: We included 13 studies comprising 81 736 participants. The overall quality of the studies was moderate. Both systolic and diastolic 24-h ABP as well as systolic clinic BP significantly predicted all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and CVD events. Systolic 24-h ABP was significantly better than systolic clinic BP at predicting future risk of CVD events: combined hazard ratio for 24-h ABP = 1.27 (95% confidence interval 1.21-1.34) per 10 mmHg increase in SBP compared with 1.13 (1.06-1.21) for clinic BP (interaction test P = 0.02). After adjusting for clinic BP, both systolic and diastolic 24-h ABP measurements were significantly better than their corresponding clinic measurements at predicting all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, and CVD events (P = 0.001 and P = 0.000, respectively). CONCLUSION: Systolic 24-h ABP is a better predictor of future CVD events than systolic clinic BP. Future studies should incorporate the use of individual patient data to assess the prognostic value of 24-h ABP.

Corticosteroids as standalone or add-on treatment for sore throat.

BACKGROUND: Sore throat is a common condition associated with a high rate of antibiotic prescriptions, despite limited evidence for the effectiveness of antibiotics. Corticosteroids may improve symptoms of sore throat by reducing inflammation of the upper respiratory tract. This review is an update to our review published in 2012. OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical benefit and safety of corticosteroids in reducing the symptoms of sore throat in adults and children. SEARCH METHODS: We searched CENTRAL (Issue 4, 2019), MEDLINE (1966 to 14 May 2019), Embase (1974 to 14 May 2019), the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE, 2002 to 2015), and the NHS Economic Evaluation Database (inception to 2015). We also searched the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (WHO ICTRP) and ClinicalTrials.gov. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared steroids to either placebo or standard care in adults and children (aged over three years) with sore throat. We excluded studies of hospitalised participants, those with infectious mononucleosis (glandular fever), sore throat following tonsillectomy or intubation, or peritonsillar abscess. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane. MAIN RESULTS: We included one new RCT in this update, for a total of nine trials involving 1319 participants (369 children and 950 adults). In eight trials, participants in both corticosteroid and placebo groups received antibiotics; one trial offered delayed prescription of antibiotics based on clinical assessment. Only two trials reported funding sources (government and a university foundation). In addition to any effect of antibiotics and analgesia, corticosteroids increased the likelihood of complete resolution of pain at 24 hours by 2.40 times (risk ratio (RR) 2.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29 to 4.47; P = 0.006; I² = 67%; high-certainty evidence) and at 48 hours by 1.5 times (RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.76; P < 0.001; I² = 0%; high-certainty evidence). Five people need to be treated to prevent one person continuing to experience pain at 24 hours. Corticosteroids also reduced the mean time to onset of pain relief and the mean time to complete resolution of pain by 6 and 11.6 hours, respectively, although significant heterogeneity was present (moderate-certainty evidence). At 24 hours, pain (assessed by visual analogue scales) was reduced by an additional 10.6% by corticosteroids (moderate-certainty evidence). No differences were reported in recurrence/relapse rates, days missed from work or school, or adverse events for participants taking corticosteroids compared to placebo. However, the reporting of adverse events was poor, and only two trials included children or reported days missed from work or school. The included studies were assessed as moderate quality evidence, but the small number of included studies has the potential to increase the uncertainty, particularly in terms of applying these results to children. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Oral or intramuscular corticosteroids, in addition to antibiotics, moderately increased the likelihood of both resolution and improvement of pain in participants with sore throat. Given the limited benefit, further research into the harms and benefits of short courses of steroids is needed to permit informed decision-making.

Factors associated with the prescribing of high-dose opioids in primary care: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The risks of harms from opioids increase substantially at high doses, and high-dose prescribing has increased in primary care. However, little is known about what leads to high-dose prescribing, and studies exploring this have not been synthesized. We, therefore, systematically synthesized factors associated with the prescribing of high-dose opioids in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of observational studies in high-income countries that used patient-level primary care data and explored any factor(s) in people for whom opioids were prescribed, stratified by oral morphine equivalents (OME). We defined high doses as ≥ 90 OME mg/day. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science, reference lists, forward citations, and conference proceedings from database inception to 5 April 2019. Two investigators independently screened studies, extracted data, and appraised the quality of included studies using the Quality Assessment Tool for Observational Cohort and Cross-Sectional Studies. We pooled data on factors using random effects meta-analyses and reported relative risks (RR) or mean differences with 95% confidence intervals (CI) where appropriate. We also performed a number needed to harm (NNTH) calculation on factors when applicable. RESULTS: We included six studies with a total of 4,248,119 participants taking opioids, of whom 3.64% (n = 154,749) were taking high doses. The majority of included studies (n = 4) were conducted in the USA, one in Australia and one in the UK. The largest study (n = 4,046,275) was from the USA. Included studies were graded as having fair to good quality evidence. The co-prescription of benzodiazepines (RR 3.27, 95% CI 1.32 to 8.13, I2 = 99.9%), depression (RR 1.38, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.51, I2 = 0%), emergency department visits (RR 1.53, 95% CI 1.46 to 1.61, I2 = 0%, NNTH 15, 95% CI 12 to 20), unemployment (RR 1.44, 95% CI 1.27 to 1.63, I2 = 0%), and male gender (RR 1.21, 95% CI 1.14 to 1.28, I2 = 78.6%) were significantly associated with the prescribing of high-dose opioids in primary care. CONCLUSIONS: High doses of opioids are associated with greater risks of harms. Associated factors such as the co-prescription of benzodiazepines and depression identify priority areas that should be considered when selecting, identifying, and managing people taking high-dose opioids in primary care. Coordinated strategies and services that promote the safe prescribing of opioids are needed. STUDY REGISTRATION: PROSPERO, CRD42018088057.

Naltrexone-bupropion (Mysimba) in management of obesity: A systematic review and meta-analysis of unpublished clinical study reports.

AIMS: To compare the benefits and harms of naltrexone-bupropion using evidence from clinical study reports. METHODS: We searched Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency websites, PubMed, and Clinicaltrials.gov (May 2016) to identify pivotal trials; we then sent a freedom of information request to the European Medicines Agency (July 2016). We included pivotal, phase III placebo-controlled trials. We assessed the risks of bias using the Cochrane criteria, and the quality of the evidence using GRADE. We used a random-effects model for meta-analyses. RESULTS: Over a 27-month period (July 2016 to August 2018), we received 31 batches of clinical study report documents containing over 65 000 pages of data from 4 pivotal trials (n = 4536). Significantly more participants who took naltrexone-bupropion achieved ≥5% reduction in body weight: risk ratio (RR) = 2.1 (95% confidence interval 1.35-3.28), P = .001, GRADE = low, number needed to treat (NNT) to benefit = 5 (3-17); this represents a 2.53 kg (1.85-3.21) reduction in baseline body weight compared with placebo. Naltrexone-bupropion had significantly beneficial effects on other cardiovascular risk factors; however, the true effect sizes for these are uncertain because of incomplete outcome data. Naltrexone-bupropion significantly increased the risk of adverse events: RR = 1.11 (1.05-1.18, P = .0004, GRADE = low, NNT to harm = 12 7-27); serious adverse events: RR = 1.70 (1.38-2.1, P < .00001, GRADE = moderate, NNT to harm = 21 13-38); and discontinuation because of adverse events: RR = 1.92 (1.65-2.24, P < .00001, GRADE = moderate, NNT to discontinue treatment = 9 8-13). CONCLUSIONS: Naltrexone-bupropion significantly reduces body weight by a small amount but significantly increases the risk of adverse events. A rigorous process of postmarketing surveillance is required.