An epidemiological approach to the analysis of cribra orbitalia as an indicator of health status and mortality in medieval and post-medieval London under a model of parasitic infection.

OBJECTIVES: Many individuals living in medieval and post-medieval London suffered issues with sanitation, food insecurity, infectious disease, and widespread exposure to parasites from a multitude of sources, causing increased risk of death for many inhabitants. We examine this stressful environment and its relationship with various demographic and temporal dimensions, using cribra orbitalia (CO) as an indicator of stress, to model an increased risk of dying under the expectations of our proposed parasitic model of infection. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyze the relationship between CO and mortality across seven medieval and post-medieval cemeteries from London by the covariates of sex, status, and age-at-death. A survival analysis (Cox regression) and a binomial logit estimated hazard and odds ratios of dying with CO across age-at-death, sex, status, and time-period within single statistical models. In addition, we provide new Bayesian age-at-death estimates for post-medieval samples. RESULTS: The models show the rate of CO decreased over time and age-at-death, regardless of sex or status; post-medieval individuals were ~72% less likely to die with lesions than their medieval counterparts. Further, individuals with CO had ~1% decrease in risk of dying with CO per year of age. DISCUSSION: These results suggest increased mortality risk for those with lesions indicative of anemia (CO), and selective mortality of younger individuals during the medieval period. Despite sex-specific nutritional and occupational hazards, and status-based access to resources, the prevalence of CO was similar across sex and status, which suggests living with parasitic infection that caused anemia was an everyday reality for medieval and post-medieval Londoners.

New Approaches to Age Estimation Using Palatal Suture Fusion.

Palatal suture fusion has seen little testing and/or application due in part to an inadequately described relationship to formal age ranges. This study presents a modified scoring method that examines fusion on samples of modern documented adult males and compares two Bayesian approaches to age estimation. In the first analysis, American and Portuguese collections were used to derive univariate and multivariate transition analysis (TA) parameters, which combined with an informative prior, estimated age in a sample of modern Americans and Portuguese. For the second analysis, a Bayesian multiple linear regression (BMLR) used indicator statuses as the independent variables with age as the dependent variable. Highest posterior density regions (HPDRs) and highest posterior density intervals (HDI) were calculated for a holdout sample. Final age estimates for the methods were tested for accuracy using cumulative binomial tests at 75% and 90% coverages. The HPDRs from multivariate TA captured age better for younger individuals, but consistently underaged. The cumulative binomial tests on the BMLR results indicated the prediction intervals performed as expected, and we show they are narrower (more precise) and/or more accurate than the corresponding HPDR. The modified method presented here formally links palatal suture obliteration to age using two different approaches, one of which (BMLR) is new to the aging literature. The BMLR provided results free from bias and more reasonable age ranges while maintaining accuracy. We present a look-up table and a free, simple R file for users to download and run their own estimates with BMLR.

Correction: Iron deficiency anemia, population health and frailty in a modern Portuguese skeletal sample.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0213369.].

Iron deficiency anemia, population health and frailty in a modern Portuguese skeletal sample.

INTRODUCTION: Portugal underwent significant political, demographic and epidemiological transitions during the 20th century resulting in migration to urban areas with subsequent overcrowding and issues with water sanitation. This study investigates population health during these transitions and interprets results within a framework of recent history and present-day public health information. We investigate skeletal evidence for anemia (cribra orbitalia and porotic hyperostosis) as indicators of stress and frailty-i.e., whether the lesions contribute to susceptibility for disease or increased risk of death. METHODS: The presence and severity of skeletal lesions were compared against known sex and cause of death data to investigate potential heterogeneity in frailty and the relationship between lesions and risk of dying over time. Additionally, we tested for the presence of selective mortality in our data (i.e., whether or not the sample is biased for individuals with higher frailty). Our sample derives from a large, documented, modern Portuguese collection from Lisbon and is the first study of its kind using a documented collection. The collection represents primarily middle-class individuals. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Analyses indicated that porotic hyperostosis became more common and severe over time, while cribra orbitalia severity increased over time. Neither process was linked to cause of death. However, there was a significant relationship to sex; males exhibited a higher prevalence and severity of lesions and increased mortality. A Gompertz function showed decreased survivorship in early life but increased survivorship over age 60. Using comorbidities of anemia, we were unable to detect selective mortality-i.e., in our sample, lesions do not represent a sign of poor health or increased frailty and are not significantly linked with a decreased mean age-at-death. However, lesion prevalence and severity do reflect the socioeconomic processes in urban Lisbon during the 1800s and 1900s and the possibility of water-borne parasites as the contributing factor for iron deficiency anemia.

Auricular Surface Aging: Comparing Two Methods that Assess Morphological Change in the Ilium with Bayesian Analyses.

Modern standards in forensic anthropology require rigorous testing and evaluation of methods used for aging skeletal remains. Age estimation has been criticized for bias, inaccuracy, and population specificity; issues which are minimized by the application of Bayesian methodology. Using Bayesian statistics, we compare the Lovejoy et al. (Am J Phys Anthropol, 68, 1985, 15) (original) and Buckberry and Chamberlain (Am J Phys Anthropol, 119, 2002, 231) (revised) auricular surface aging methods. Transition analysis parameters derived from American males (n = 372), in combination with a Thai male (N = 37) informative prior, statistically model age in Portuguese males (n = 221). Cumulative binomial tests assess the accuracy of the generated age ranges. Overall, the application of transition analysis and Bayesian statistics significantly improved age estimation with both methods (also outperforming Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis aging). Moreover, the accuracy of the original method was low without statistical modeling, whereas the revised method can be applied accurately without further statistical analysis. Additionally, reference tables for aging Portuguese males are provided.

Modeling senescence changes of the pubic symphysis in historic Italian populations: a comparison of the Rostock and forensic approaches to aging using transition analysis.

Age-related anatomical changes to the surface of the pubic symphysis are well-documented in the literature. However, aligning these morphological changes with chronological age has proven problematic, often resulting in biased age estimates. Statistical modeling provides an avenue for forensic anthropologists and bioarchaeologists to increase the accuracy of traditional aging methods. Locating appropriate samples to use as a basis for modeling age estimations can be challenging due to differing sample age distributions and potentially varying patterns of senescence. We compared two approaches, Rostock and Forensic, coupled with a Bayesian methodology, to address these issues. Transition analysis was run specific to each method (which differ by sample selection). A Gompertz model was derived from an informative prior that yielded the mortality and senescence parameters for constructing highest posterior density ranges, i.e., coverages, which are analogous to age ranges. These age ranges were generated from both approaches and are presented as reference tables useful for historic male and female Italian samples. The age ranges produced from each approach were tested on an historic Italian sample, using cumulative binomial tests. These two approaches performed similarly, with the Forensic approach showing a slight advantage. However, the Forensic approach is unable to identify varying senescence patterns between populations, thus preference for one approach over the other will depend on research design. Finally, we demonstrate that while populations exhibit similar morphological changes with advancing age, there are no significant sex differences in these samples, and the timing of these changes varies from population to population.

Age-at-death estimation in an Italian historical sample: a test of the Suchey-Brooks and transition analysis methods.

A growing body of research is demonstrating increased accuracy in aging from a relatively new method, transition analysis. Although transition analysis was developed for paleodemographic research, a majority of subsequent studies have been in the forensic arena, with very little work in bioarchaeological contexts. Using the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis phases, scored on a target sample of historic Italians from the island of Sardinia, we compare accuracy of aging between transition analysis combined with a Bayesian approach and the standard Suchey-Brooks age ranges. Because of the difficulty in identifying a reasonable informative prior for bioarchaeological samples, we also compared results of both an informative prior and a uniform prior for age estimation. Published ages-of-transition for the Terry Collection and Balkan genocide victims were used in conjunction with parameters generated from Gompertz hazard models derived from the priors. The ages-of-transition and hazard parameters were utilized to calculate the highest posterior density regions, otherwise known as "coverages" or age ranges, for each Suchey-Brooks phase. Each prior, along with the parameters, were input into cumulative binomial tests. The results indicate that the Bayesian approach outperformed the Suchey-Brooks technique alone. The Terry Collection surpassed the Balkans as a reasonable sample from which to derive transition analysis parameters. This discrepancy between populations is due to different within phase age-at-death distributions that reflect differences in aging between the populations. These results indicate bioarchaeologists should strive to apply a Bayesian analysis when aging historic and archaeological populations by employing an informative prior.

Auricular surface aging: a blind test of the revised method on historic Italians from Sardinia.

Age determination from human skeletal remains is an important biological parameter in both forensic and bioarchaeological contexts. This study presents the results of a blind test of the revised auricular surface age estimation method proposed by Buckberry and Chamberlain (Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 119 (2002) 321-329) on a large sample (n=404) of known sex and age from the Sassari collection, housed at the Museum of Anthropology, University of Bologna, Italy. Ilia were scored for five features: transverse organization, surface texture, microporosity, macroporosity, and apical changes, which combined for a composite score. The results indicated that all features and the composite score were positively correlated with known age. Composite scores were significantly different between the sexes, suggesting that males and females should be treated separately. Bias and inaccuracy varied across age intervals. Age tended to be overestimated in individuals under age 59 and underestimated for those over age 60 years. However, the revised method showed improvement over the original auricular surface method (Lovejoy et al., Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 68 (1985) 15-28), especially for aging older individuals. Considerable variation exists in the age ranges derived from composite scores and few significant differences were found between age stages, suggesting that fewer stages with wider age ranges may be necessary. The independent, quantitative scoring of the surface features makes the revised method substantially easier to apply and the method shows significant improvement for aging older individuals.

Brief communication: Skeletal biology past and present: Are we moving in the right direction?

In 1982, Spencer's edited volume A History of American Physical Anthropology: 1930-1980 allowed numerous authors to document the state of our science, including a critical examination of skeletal biology. Some authors argued that the first 50 years of skeletal biology were characterized by the descriptive-historical approach with little regard for processual problems and that technological and statistical analyses were not rooted in theory. In an effort to determine whether Spencer's landmark volume impacted the field of skeletal biology, a content analysis was carried out for the American Journal of Physical Anthropology from 1980 to 2004. The percentage of skeletal biology articles is similar to that of previous decades. Analytical articles averaged only 32% and are defined by three criteria: statistical analysis, hypothesis testing, and broader explanatory context. However, when these criteria were scored individually, nearly 80% of papers attempted a broader theoretical explanation, 44% tested hypotheses, and 67% used advanced statistics, suggesting that the skeletal biology papers in the journal have an analytical emphasis. Considerable fluctuation exists between subfields; trends toward a more analytical approach are witnessed in the subfields of age/sex/stature/demography, skeletal maturation, anatomy, and nonhuman primate studies, which also increased in frequency, while paleontology and pathology were largely descriptive. Comparisons to the International Journal of Osteoarchaeology indicate that there are statistically significant differences between the two journals in terms of analytical criteria. These data indicate a positive shift in theoretical thinking, i.e., an attempt by most to explain processes rather than present a simple description of events.

Age estimation from the human os coxa: a test on a documented Italian collection*.

Current standards for age at death estimation from the pelvis are based on Americans of European and African ancestry. Our limited understanding of population variability hampers our efforts to apply these techniques to the various skeletal populations around the world, especially in global forensic contexts. However, documented skeletal samples are rare, limiting our ability to test our techniques. This study tested the Suchey-Brooks pubic symphysis aging method and the auricular surface method originally developed by Lovejoy et al. on a large sample (n = 404) of known sex and age from the Sassari Collection, housed at the Museum of Anthropology at the University of Bologna, Italy. The results indicate that for both methods, bias and inaccuracy increased with age and actual age tended to be underestimated over the age of 40. The auricular surface method performed slightly better, exhibiting slightly lower levels of bias and inaccuracy, especially for males.

Ontogeny and diachronic changes in sexual dimorphism in the craniofacial skeleton of rhesus macaques from Cayo Santiago, Puerto Rico.

Insight into the ontogeny of sexual dimorphism is important to our understanding of life history, ecology, and evolution in primates. This study applied a three-dimensional method, Euclidean Distance Matrix Analysis, to investigate sexual dimorphism and its diachronic changes in rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta) skulls. Twenty-one landmarks in four functional areas of the craniofacial skeleton were digitized from macaques of known age and sex from the Cayo Santiago collections. Then, a series of mean form matrices, form difference matrices, and growth matrices were computed to demonstrate growth curves, rates and duration of growth, and sexual dimorphism within the neurocranium, basicranium, palate, and face. The inclusion of fully adult animals revealed a full profile of sexual dimorphism. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time diachronic change in adult sexual dimorphism caused by extended growth in adult females. A quicker growth rate in males from ages 2 to 8 was offset by a longer duration of growth in adult females that resulted in diminished dimorphism between the ages of 8 and 15. Four functional areas showed different sex-specific growth patterns, and the rate and duration of growth in the anterior facial skeleton contributed most to the changing profiles of sexual dimorphism. The late maturation in size of the female facial skeleton corresponds to later and less complete fusion of facial sutures. The prolongation of growth in females is hypothesized to be an evolutionary response to high levels of intrasexual competition, as is found in other primate species such as common chimpanzees with similar colony structure and reproductive behavior. Further investigation is required to determine (1) if this phenomenon observed in craniofacial skeletons is linked to sexual dimorphism in body size, and (2) whether this diachronic change in sexual dimorphism is species specific. The changing profile of sexual dimorphism in adult rhesus macaques suggests caution in studying sexual dimorphism in fossil primate and human forms.

Ontogeny of craniofacial sexual dimorphism in the orangutan (Pongo pygmaeus). I: face and palate.

The orangutan is widely recognized as a highly dimorphic species. An ontogenetic approach to the study of sexual dimorphism can assist researchers in understanding both where and when these differences develop. In this study, 357 orangutans from Borneo were divided into five developmental stages representing infancy to mature adulthood. Three-dimensional (3D) coordinate data from 16 landmarks representing the face and palate were analyzed by means of a Euclidean distance matrix analysis (EDMA), a quantitative method for the comparison of forms. Three separate analyses (an age-specific static comparison of forms, a sex-specific analysis of growth trajectories, and an intersex comparison of patterns of relative growth) were carried out with the intent to describe the rate, timing, magnitude, and pattern of growth in the orangutan face and palate. The results indicate that generally males and females share a similar, but not identical, pattern of growth or local form change, but differ in growth rate, timing, and magnitude of difference. Dimorphism in the face and palate can be localized in infancy and traced throughout all age intervals. Orangutan females grow slightly faster than males from infancy to adolescence, at which time male growth exceeds female growth. Female growth ceases with the advent of adulthood, while male growth continues (i.e., both the number and magnitude of the dimorphic dimensions increase). Males and females are similar in facial dimensions and growth related to the orbits, upper face, and palate width. They maintain these similarities throughout development. However, they differ in facial and nasal height, palate length, snout projection, depth of the nasopharynx, and hafting of the face onto the skull. The face broadens and the zygomatic bone flares dramatically in adult males, corresponding to the development of cheek pads. While growth patterns are similar between the two sexes, they differ in the lateral orbit, snout projection, and hafting of the face onto the cranium. Adult dimorphism is the result of growth patterns experienced throughout life, and it is not equally expressed across the cranium. An understanding of patterns of dimorphism, along with the magnitude of difference, may be helpful for interpreting dimorphism in the fossil record.

Growth and sexual dimorphism in orangutan crania: a three-dimensional approach.

New insights may be gleaned by taking an ontogenetic approach to investigations of adult dimorphism. Previous work in this area relied on traditional, caliper-based, morphometric methods, and produced conflicting results. This study uses a three-dimensional (3-D) approach for both local and global form comparisons of sex-specific growth and growth patterns. 3-D coordinate data were collected for 20 landmarks on 94 orangutan crania divided into five developmental stages. Data were analyzed using Euclidean distance matrix analysis (EDMA). Results indicate that differences in growth patterns between male and female orangutans exist in the youngest age intervals. Dimorphic patterns are strongest in the face and basicranium at the youngest age intervals, and in the face and neurocranium during adult stages. Females grow substantially more in the cranial base and face during the youngest age groups, while males grow more than females in all anatomical regions later in development. Growth in the palate was similar between sexes. Sexual dimorphism may be produced through the continued growth of one sex relative to the other, representing differences in timing, or growth duration. Dimophism may also result from different growth rates between sexes, where one sex develops faster than the other sex in the same time interval. Orangutan males and females differ in both the rate and duration of their craniofacial development. The data analysis technique used here, EDMA, was integral in identifying dynamic growth processes rather than just the static end results of each developmental stage.

A geometric approach to cranial sexual dimorphism in the orang-utan.

Adult craniofacial morphology is quantified and compared using Euclidean distance matrix analysis (EDMA), a three-dimensional morphometric method for the comparison of forms, which localizes form differences between comparative groups. Results indicate that the number and magnitude of differences between male and female crania are striking. The face, basicranium and neurocranium exhibit the most dimorphism, while the palate shows the least. Significant differences also exist between young adult and fully adult individuals, especially males, supporting the delayed onset of sexual maturity and secondary sex characteristics in males. As one of the many new morphometric techniques available, EDMA was useful for identifying local form difference and provides insights into the understanding of sexual dimorphism in this species beyond that obtained from traditional statistical methods based on linear caliper measurements.