Explainable hierarchical clustering for patient subtyping and risk prediction.

We present a pipeline in which machine learning techniques are used to automatically identify and evaluate subtypes of hospital patients admitted between 2017 and 2021 in a large UK teaching hospital. Patient clusters are determined using routinely collected hospital data, such as those used in the UK's National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2). An iterative, hierarchical clustering process was used to identify the minimum set of relevant features for cluster separation. With the use of state-of-the-art explainability techniques, the identified subtypes are interpreted and assigned clinical meaning, illustrating their robustness. In parallel, clinicians assessed intracluster similarities and intercluster differences of the identified patient subtypes within the context of their clinical knowledge. For each cluster, outcome prediction models were trained and their forecasting ability was illustrated against the NEWS2 of the unclustered patient cohort. These preliminary results suggest that subtype models can outperform the established NEWS2 method, providing improved prediction of patient deterioration. By considering both the computational outputs and clinician-based explanations in patient subtyping, we aim to highlight the mutual benefit of combining machine learning techniques with clinical expertise.

Disentangling the Link Between Image Statistics and Human Perception.

In the 1950s, Barlow and Attneave hypothesised a link between biological vision and information maximisation. Following Shannon, information was defined using the probability of natural images. A number of physiological and psychophysical phenomena have been derived ever since from principles like info-max, efficient coding, or optimal denoising. However, it remains unclear how this link is expressed in mathematical terms from image probability. First, classical derivations were subjected to strong assumptions on the probability models and on the behaviour of the sensors. Moreover, the direct evaluation of the hypothesis was limited by the inability of the classical image models to deliver accurate estimates of the probability. In this work we directly evaluate image probabilities using an advanced generative model for natural images, and we analyse how probability-related factors can be combined to predict human perception via sensitivity of state-of-the-art subjective image quality metrics. We use information theory and regression analysis to find a combination of just two probability-related factors that achieves 0.8 correlation with subjective metrics. This probability-based sensitivity is psychophysically validated by reproducing the basic trends of the Contrast Sensitivity Function, its suprathreshold variation, and trends of the Weber-law and masking.