Hepatitis C risk score as a tool to identify individuals with HCV infection: a demonstration and cross-sectional epidemiological study in Egypt.

OBJECTIVES: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection poses a global health challenge. By the end of 2021, the WHO estimated that less than a quarter of global HCV infections had been diagnosed. There is a need for a public health tool that can facilitate the identification of people with HCV infection and link them to testing and treatment, and that can be customised for each country. METHODS: We derived and validated a risk score to identify people with HCV in Egypt and demonstrated its utility. Using data from the 2008 and 2014 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys, two risk scores were constructed through multivariable logistic regression analysis. A range of diagnostic metrics was then calculated to evaluate the performance of these scores. RESULTS: The 2008 and 2014 risk scores exhibited similar dependencies on sex, age and type of place of residence. Both risk scores demonstrated high and similar areas under the curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.76 to 0.78) and 0.78 (95% CI: 0.77 to 0.80), respectively. For the 2008 risk score, sensitivity was 73.7% (95% CI: 71.5% to 75.9%), specificity was 68.5% (95% CI: 67.5% to 69.4%), positive predictive value (PPV) was 27.8% (95% CI: 26.4% to 29.2%) and negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1% (95% CI: 93.5% to 94.6%). For the 2014 risk score, sensitivity was 64.0% (95% CI: 61.5% to 66.6%), specificity was 78.2% (95% CI: 77.5% to 78.9%), PPV was 22.2% (95% CI: 20.9% to 23.5%) and NPV was 95.7% (95% CI: 95.4% to 96.1%). Each score was validated by applying it to a different survey database than the one used to derive it. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of HCV risk scores is an effective strategy to identify carriers of HCV infection and to link them to testing and treatment at low cost to national programmes.

A pediatric HIV outbreak in Pakistan.

Background: Following reports of an outbreak of HIV infection among children in Larkana District, Pakistan, an international team investigated the extent and cause of the outbreak between April and June 2019. Aims: To investigate the incidence of HIV among children in Larkana District, Pakistan and describe the distribution of cases by time, place and person. Methods: Self-referred persons were tested for HIV using the national testing protocol. Local epidemiology of HIV was reviewed to generate hypotheses. An infection prevention and control (IPC) team conducted site visits and reviewed IPC practices. Results: Between 25 April and 27 June 2019, a total of 30 191 persons were tested for HIV in Larkana District, and 876 of them tested positive. Of those who tested positive, 719 (82%) were children aged <15 years. Traditional skin piercing procedures and transmission from high-risk populations to children were ruled out during the investigation. Informative interviews with parents or guardians of a convenience sample of 211 children aged <15 years showed that 99% of children had an injection or infusion for medical treatment within the past 12 months. Our investigation identified lack of HIV prevalence data for the general population including tuberculosis patients and those who attended antenatal care services. Conclusions: Investigations indicate that unsafe healthcare practices in formal and informal healthcare settings as the most likely cause of the 2019 outbreak of HIV infection in Larkana, Pakistan. Measures should be taken to improve IPC practices at the facility level, especially in pediatric and antenatal care clinics.

Barriers and Strategies for Hepatitis B and C Elimination in Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: Pakistan has a high hepatitis burden for both hepatitis C virus (HCV) and hepatitis B virus (HBV). To achieve World Health Organization (WHO) 2030 targets for hepatitis elimination, there is a need to constitute progress in the country, find the barriers and strategies for HCV elimination, and take actions to address the gaps. METHODS: We collected data from (1) WHO estimates in 2020, (2) midterm review questionnaire of the WHO regional action plan, and (3) WHO estimates on immunization. We analyzed these data to inform (1) the burden defined as prevalence and mortality and (2) response in 3 thematic areas: governance, policy, and finance; strategic information; and service delivery. RESULTS: The prevalence of hepatitis B in the general population is 1.6% with 12 000 deaths/year. The prevalence of hepatitis C in the general population is 7.5% with 19 000 deaths and 545 000 new cases (incidence)/year. The selected indicators to monitor progress on viral hepatitis in Pakistan were governance and financing, policies and guidelines, and strategic information. The overall governance indicators are good with a focal point, a national hepatitis strategy, an operational plan, strategy for price reduction, and involvement of civil society but the costed action plan and the advocacy strategy are missing. The indicators on policies and guidelines are also adequately addressed. The hepatitis B and C testing and treatment guidelines are available, there is a policy to screen all blood donations, and there is an injection safety policy, but the policy for timely hepatitis B vaccine birth dose and hepatitis B vaccination for the vulnerable is missing. Both indicators regarding strategic information, that is measures of key hepatitis indicators and regular data review, are missing. The status of 5 key interventions in Pakistan show that the hepatitis B vaccination coverage is 74% and only 3% of newborn children are given the hepatitis B vaccine birth dose. Only 22% of HCV cases have been diagnosed and 2% have received treatment. Treatment response is 96%. Same-day testing and treatment of hepatitis C reduced the overall dropout rate and improved the cascade of care. Decentralization and task shifting are important tools to improve service delivery and reach communities. Finances to implement hepatitis elimination is a major barrier. CONCLUSIONS: Pakistan has the highest hepatitis disease burden. With the current pace, hepatitis elimination appears impossible. Introduction of the birth dose of hepatitis B vaccine and improving access and affordability of testing can improve the testing and treatment numbers. Finances need to be mobilized from within the country and outside to support disease elimination.

Incidence of HIV and hepatitis C virus among people who inject drugs, and associations with age and sex or gender: a global systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Measuring the incidence of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) is key to track progress towards elimination. We aimed to summarise global data on HIV and primary HCV incidence among PWID and associations with age and sex or gender. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we updated an existing database of HIV and HCV incidence studies among PWID by searching MEDLINE, Embase, and PsycINFO, capturing studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2022, with no language or study design restrictions. We contacted authors of identified studies for unpublished or updated data. We included studies that estimated incidence by longitudinally re-testing people at risk of infection or by using assays for recent infection. We pooled incidence and relative risk (RR; young [generally defined as ≤25 years] vs older PWID; women vs men) estimates using random-effects meta-analysis and assessed risk of bias with a modified Newcastle-Ottawa scale. This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020220884. FINDINGS: Our updated search identified 9493 publications, of which 211 were eligible for full-text review. An additional 377 full-text records from our existing database and five records identified through cross-referencing were assessed. Including 28 unpublished records, 125 records met the inclusion criteria. We identified 64 estimates of HIV incidence (30 from high-income countries [HICs] and 34 from low-income or middle-income countries [LMICs]) and 66 estimates of HCV incidence (52 from HICs and 14 from LMICs). 41 (64%) of 64 HIV and 42 (64%) of 66 HCV estimates were from single cities rather than being multi-city or nationwide. Estimates were measured over 1987-2021 for HIV and 1992-2021 for HCV. Pooled HIV incidence was 1·7 per 100 person-years (95% CI 1·3-2·3; I2=98·4%) and pooled HCV incidence was 12·1 per 100 person-years (10·0-14·6; I2=97·2%). Young PWID had a greater risk of HIV (RR 1·5, 95% CI 1·2-1·8; I2=66·9%) and HCV (1·5, 1·3-1·8; I2=70·6%) acquisition than older PWID. Women had a greater risk of HIV (RR 1·4, 95% CI 1·1-1·6; I2=55·3%) and HCV (1·2, 1·1-1·3; I2=43·3%) acquisition than men. For both HIV and HCV, the median risk-of-bias score was 6 (IQR 6-7), indicating moderate risk. INTERPRETATION: Although sparse, available HIV and HCV incidence estimates offer insights into global levels of HIV and HCV transmission among PWID. Intensified efforts are needed to keep track of the HIV and HCV epidemics among PWID and to expand access to age-appropriate and gender-appropriate prevention services that serve young PWID and women who inject drugs. FUNDING: Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Canadian Network on Hepatitis C, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, and WHO.

Epidemiology of herpes simplex virus type 2 in the Middle East and North Africa: Systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions.

Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection is a prevalent, sexually transmitted infection with poorly characterized prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study characterized HSV-2 epidemiology in MENA. HSV-2 reports were systematically reviewed as guided by the Cochrane Collaboration Handbook and findings were reported following PRISMA guidelines. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed to estimate pooled mean outcome measures and to assess predictors of HSV-2 antibody prevalence (seroprevalence), trends in seroprevalence, and between-study heterogeneity. In total, sixty-one overall (133 stratified) HSV-2 seroprevalence measures and two overall (four stratified) proportion measures of HSV-2 detection in laboratory-confirmed genital herpes were extracted from 37 relevant publications. Pooled mean seroprevalence was 5.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.6%-6.8%) among general populations, 13.3% (95% CI: 8.6%-18.7%) among intermediate-risk populations, 20.6% (95% CI: 5.3%-42.3%) among female sex workers, and 18.3% (95% CI: 3.9%-39.4%) among male sex workers. Compared to Fertile Crescent countries, seroprevalence was 3.39-fold (95% CI: 1.86-6.20) and 3.90-fold (95% CI: 1.78-8.57) higher in Maghreb and Horn of Africa countries, respectively. Compared to studies published before 2010, seroprevalence was 1.73-fold (95% CI: 1.00-2.99) higher in studies published after 2015. Pooled mean proportion of HSV-2 detection in genital herpes was 73.8% (95% CI: 42.2%-95.9%). In conclusion, MENA has a lower HSV-2 seroprevalence than other world regions. Yet, 1 in 20 adults is chronically infected, despite conservative prevailing sexual norms. Seroprevalence may also be increasing, unlike other world regions. Findings support the need for expansion of surveillance and monitoring of HSV-2 infection in MENA.

Characterizing trends and associations for hepatitis C virus antibody prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa: meta-regression analyses.

This study characterized population-level trends and associations with hepatitis C virus (HCV) antibody (Ab) prevalence in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Data source was the standardized and systematically gathered MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project Database. Random-effects univariable and multivariable meta-regressions were conducted. 2,621 HCV Ab prevalence measures on 49,824,108 individuals were analyzed. In the analysis including all populations, 71% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by at-risk population type. Compared to the general population, prevalence was 23-fold higher among people who inject drugs, and 14-fold higher among high-risk clinical populations. In the analysis including only the general population, 67% of the variation in prevalence was explained, mostly by country/subregion. Compared to Afghanistan, prevalence was highest in Egypt and Pakistan. Prevalence in the general population was declining at a rate of 4% per year, but outside the general population, the decline was at only 1% per year. HCV Ab prevalence in MENA is declining rapidly, but this decline is largely occurring in the general population following introduction of blood and injection safety measures. The decline in populations at higher risk of exposure is slow and below the level needed to achieve HCV elimination by 2030.

HIV incidence and impact of interventions among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and north Africa: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of HIV infection among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and north Africa is not well known. We aimed to assess HIV incidence, the contribution of heterosexual sex work networks to these numbers, and the effect of interventions by use of mathematical modelling. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a novel, individual-based model to simulate HIV epidemic dynamics in heterosexual sex work networks. We applied this model to 12 countries in the Middle East and north Africa that had sufficient data to estimate incidence in 2020 and the impact of interventions by 2030 (Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Iran, Libya, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tunisia, and Yemen). Model-input parameters were provided through a systematic review of HIV prevalence, sexual and injecting behaviours, and risk group size estimates of female sex workers and clients. Model output was number of incident HIV infections under different modelling scenarios for each country. Summary statistics were generated on these model output scenarios. FINDINGS: Based on the output of our model, we estimated a total of 14 604 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] CI 7929-31 819) new HIV infections in the 12 countries in 2020 among female sex workers, clients, and spouses, which constituted 28·1% of 51 995 total new cases in all adults in these 12 countries combined. Model-estimated number of new infections in 2020 in the 12 countries combined was 3471 (95% UI 1295-10 308) in female sex workers, 6416 (3144-14 223) in clients, and 4717 (3490-7288) in client spouses. Contribution of incidence in heterosexual sex work networks to total incidence varied widely, ranging from 3·3% in Pakistan to 71·8% in South Sudan and 72·7% in Djibouti. Incidence in heterosexual sex work networks was distributed roughly equally among female sex workers, clients, and client spouses. Estimated incidence rates among female sex workers per 1000 person-years ranged from 0·4 (95% UI 0·0-7·1) in Yemen to 34·3 (17·2-59·6) in South Sudan. In countries where HIV acquisition through injecting drug use creates substantial exposure for female sex workers who inject drugs, estimated incidence rates per 1000 person-years ranged from 5·1 (95% UI 0·0-35·1) in Iran to 45·8 (0·0-428·6) in Pakistan. The model output predicted that any of the programmed interventions would substantially reduce incidence. Even when a subpopulation did not benefit directly from an intervention, it benefited indirectly through reduction in onward transmission, and indirect impact was often half as large as the direct impact. INTERPRETATION: Substantial HIV incidence occurs in heterosexual sex work networks across the Middle East and north Africa with client spouses being heavily affected, in addition to female sex workers and clients. Rapid scaling-up of comprehensive treatment and prevention services for female sex workers is urgently needed. FUNDING: Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation), the Biostatistics, Epidemiology, and Biomathematics Research Core at the Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Qatar University-Marubeni, the UK Medical Research Council, and the UK Department for International Development.

Progress towards elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030 in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region, 2019.

The WHO Global Health Sector Strategy and hepatitis regional action plan for the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) proposed strategic directions for countries to progress towards the elimination of viral hepatitis by 2030. In 2019, we reviewed progress to gain a picture of current pressures and identify priority actions for member states to reach this goal. We collected data from country, regional, and global reports published in 2015-19, questionnaires completed by countries, and convened a regional consultation with programme managers and partners. We analysed these data along three thematic areas: governance and finance, strategic information, and service delivery. 15 of the 22 EMR countries completed the review. Of these, 10 (67%) had a national strategy and six (40%) allocated funds to it. 11 (73%) countries had testing and treatment guidelines in line with WHO recommendations. Ten (67%) countries had burden and coverage estimates, four (27%) reported on the cascade of care for hepatitis C virus (HCV), three (20%) reported on the cascade of care for hepatitis B (HBV), and three (20%) had mortality estimates. By 2019, the regional hepatitis B vaccination coverage among infants was 82% for the third dose and 33% for the timely birth dose. For harm reduction, 27 syringes were distributed per injecting drug user per year. Between 2015 and 2019, HCV diagnosis increased from 18% to 33% and treatment for hepatitis C increased from 12% to 26%. Within the same time period, diagnosis of HBV diagnosis increased from 2% to 14% and treatment initiation increased from less than 1% to 2%. EMR countries made progress in governance, policy development, coverage of the third dose of the hepatitis B vaccine, and testing and treatment for HCV infection. However, birth dose vaccination, injection safety, harm reduction, and testing and treatment are limited by insufficient financing. Core interventions need to be included within national universal health coverage packages as an initial move towards elimination.

Availability of HIV surveillance data in key populations in the countries of the World Health Organization Eastern Mediterranean Region.

OBJECTIVES: To present an assessment of key components and results of HIV surveillance activities relevant for understanding HIV epidemics in the countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) Eastern Mediterranean Region among key populations (KPs), which include men who have sex with men (MSM), sex workers, people who inject drugs and transgender people. METHODS: We examined HIV surveillance data submitted by the National AIDS Programmes of all 22 countries of the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region via an online database hosted by the WHO since 2011. We also examined journal articles available on PubMed and technical reports on surveillance activities. RESULTS: Recent (i.e., since 2017) estimates of HIV indicators from integrated bio-behavioral surveys (IBBS) were available from only four countries (Lebanon, Morocco, Somalia, and Tunisia) and population size estimates from two (Afghanistan and Morocco). IBBS indicated an increase in HIV prevalence among KPs in Pakistan, among people who inject drugs and female sex workers in Tunisia, and among MSM in Lebanon. Information on size estimations of KPs was available from 11 countries, and population size estimation data since 2017 had been collected in only Afghanistan and Morocco. CONCLUSION: Although some countries have been able to progressively expand HIV strategic information systems, there were still few or no HIV data on KPs in almost a third of the countries.

Assessment of country implementation of the WHO global health sector strategy on sexually transmitted infections (2016-2021).

BACKGROUND: In 2016, WHO launched the Global Health Sector Strategy on STIs, 2016-2021 (GHSS) to provide guidance and benchmarks for country achievement by 2020 and four global targets for achievement by 2030. METHODS: A country survey jointly developed by experienced technical personnel at WHO Headquarters (HQ) and WHO regional offices was reviewed and distributed by WHO regional advisors to 194 WHO Member States in September-March 2020. The survey sought to assess implementation and prioritization of STI policy, surveillance, service delivery, commodity availability, and surveillance based on targets of the GHSS. RESULTS: A majority (58%, 112/194) of countries returned a completed survey reflecting current (2019) STI activities. The regions with the highest survey completion rates were South-East Asia Region (91%, 10/11), Region of the Americas (71%, 25/35) and Western Pacific Region (67%, 18/27). Having a national STI strategy was reported by 64% (72/112) and performing STI surveillance activities by 88% (97/110) of reporting countries. Availability of STI services within primary health clinics was reported by 88% of countries (99/112); within HIV clinics by 92% (103/112), and within reproductive health services by 85% (95/112). Existence of a national strategy to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV and syphilis (EMTCT) was reported by 70% of countries (78/112). Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) monitoring for gonococcal infection (gonorrhoea) was reported by 64% (57/89) of reporting countries with this laboratory capacity. Inclusion of HPV vaccine for young women in the national immunization schedule was reported by 59% (65/110) and availability of cervical cancer screening was reported by 91% (95/104). Stockouts of STI medicines, primarily benzathine penicillin, within the prior four years were reported by 34% (37/110) of countries. CONCLUSIONS: Mechanisms to support improvements to STI service delivery through national-level policy, commitment, programming and surveillance are needed to operationalize, accelerate and monitor progress towards achievement of the 2030 global STI strategy targets.

HIV epidemiology in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region: a multicountry programme review.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, HIV incidence, and mortality has decreased since 2010; however, in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region, trends continue to increase. We reviewed the regional progress to understand determinants of this situation and inform strategies to accelerate the response. METHODS: We conducted a multicountry programme review of 22 countries in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region from Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2020. We extracted data from WHO's global AIDS monitoring system, UNAIDS estimates, and country reports regarding incident cases, policy uptake, and antiretrovirals used. We analysed data to describe incidence, testing practices, treatment coverage, and mortality to identify bottlenecks leading to persisting incidence and mortality. FINDINGS: Due to COVID-19 disruptions, the volume of HIV testing in 2020 halved to 3·0 million tests compared with 2019 with 8017 people living with HIV identified (0·27% positivity yield). In comparison with a 0·18% positivity yield from the 6·5 million tests in 2019. HIV tests were done in migrants (59·6%), groups at low risk (38·9%), and key populations (1·5%). Diagnoses with advanced disease increased from 27·3% in 2017 to 37·0% in 2019. In 2019, among 52 318 people on treatment, only 2888 (6%) received optimised regimens as per WHO recommendations. The number of people on treatment increased from 19 000 in 2010 with a coverage of 8% to 110 000 in 2020 with a coverage of 25%. Late diagnoses and suboptimal regimens could explain the increase in mortality from 9600 in 2010 to 17 000 in 2020. INTERPRETATION: In the Eastern Mediterranean region, inefficient testing and suboptimal treatment lead to underdiagnosis, persisting transmission, late treatment, and rising mortality. The HIV epidemic is growing faster than the response. A change in thinking is needed to test groups at high risk, transition to optimised treatment, and deliver patient-centred services that maximise retention. FUNDING: World Health Organization.

Adoption of guidelines on and use of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis: a global summary and forecasting study.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, the UN General Assembly set a global target of 3 million oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) users by 2020. With this target at an end, we aimed to assess global trends in the adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations into national guidelines and numbers of PrEP users, defined as people who received oral PrEP at least once in a given year, and to estimate future trajectories of PrEP use. METHODS: In this global summary and forecasting study, data on adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations and numbers of PrEP users were obtained through the Global AIDS Monitoring system and WHO regional offices. Trends in these indicators for 2016-19 by region and for 2019 by country were described, including by gender and priority populations where data were available. PrEP user numbers were forecasted until 2023 by selecting countries with at least 3 years of PrEP user data as example countries in each region to represent possible future PrEP user trajectories. PrEP user growth rates observed in example countries were applied to countries in corresponding regions under different scenarios, including a COVID-19 disruption scenario with static global PrEP use in 2020. FINDINGS: By the end of 2019, 120 (67%) of 180 countries with data had adopted the WHO PrEP recommendations into national guidelines (23 in 2019 and 30 in 2018). In 2019, there were about 626 000 PrEP users across 77 countries, including 260 000 (41·6%) in the region of the Americas and 213 000 (34·0%) in the African region; this is a 69% increase from about 370 000 PrEP users across 66 countries in 2018. Without COVID-19 disruptions, 0·9-1·1 million global PrEP users were projected by the end of 2020 and 2·4-5·3 million are projected by the end of 2023. If COVID-19 disruptions resulted in no PrEP user growth in 2020, the projected number of PrEP users in 2023 is 2·1-3·0 million. INTERPRETATION: Widespread adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations coincided with a global increase in PrEP use. Although the 2020 global PrEP target will be missed, strong future growth in PrEP use is possible. New PrEP products could expand the PrEP user base, and, with greater expansion of oral PrEP, further adoption of WHO PrEP recommendations, and simplified delivery, PrEP could contribute to ending AIDS by 2030. FUNDING: Unitaid, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and WHO.

The status of hepatitis C virus infection among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: People who inject drugs (PWID) are a key population at high risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The aim of this study was to delineate the epidemiology of HCV in PWID in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). METHODS: Syntheses of data were conducted on the standardized and systematically assembled databases of the MENA HCV Epidemiology Synthesis Project, 1989-2018. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were performed. Meta-regression variables included country, study site, year of data collection and year of publication [to assess trends in HCV antibody prevalence over time], sample size and sampling methodology. Numbers of chronically infected PWID across MENA were estimated. The Shannon Diversity Index was calculated to assess genotype diversity. RESULTS: Based on 118 HCV antibody prevalence measures, the pooled mean prevalence in PWID for all MENA was 49.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 44.4-54.1%]. The country-specific pooled mean ranged from 21.7% (95% CI = 4.9-38.6%) in Tunisia to 94.2% (95% CI = 90.8-96.7%) in Libya. An estimated 221 704 PWID were chronically infected, with the largest numbers found in Iran at 68 526 and in Pakistan at 46 554. There was no statistically significant evidence for a decline in HCV antibody prevalence over time. Genotype diversity was moderate (Shannon Diversity Index of 1.01 out of 1.95; 52.1%). The pooled mean percentage for each HCV genotype was highest in genotype 3 (42.7%) and in genotype 1 (35.9%). CONCLUSION: Half of people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa appear to have ever been infected with hepatitis C virus, but there are large variations in antibody prevalence among countries. In addition to > 200 000 chronically infected current people who inject drugs, there is an unknown number of people who no longer inject drugs who may have acquired hepatitis C virus during past injecting drug use. Harm reduction services must be expanded, and innovative strategies need to be employed to ensure accessibility to hepatitis C virus testing and treatment.

Epidemiology of Chlamydia trachomatis in the Middle East and north Africa: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of Chlamydia trachomatis in the Middle East and north Africa is poorly understood. We aimed to provide a comprehensive epidemiological assessment of C trachomatis infection in the Middle East and north Africa. METHODS: We did a systematic review of C trachomatis infection as well as a meta-analysis and meta-regression of C trachomatis prevalence. We searched PubMed and Embase, as well as regional and national databases up to March 13, 2019, using broad search terms with no language or year restrictions. Any document or report including biological measures for C trachomatis prevalence or incidence was eligible for inclusion. We extracted all measures of current (genital or rectal), recent, and ever infection with C trachomatis. We estimated pooled average prevalence in different populations using random-effects meta-analysis. Factors associated with prevalence and sources of between-study heterogeneity were determined using meta-regression. FINDINGS: We identified a total of 1531 citations, of which 255 reports contributed to 552 C trachomatis prevalence measures from 20 countries. No incidence measures were identified. Pooled prevalence of current genital infection was 3·0% (95% CI 2·3-3·8) in general populations, 2·8% (1·0-5·2) in intermediate-risk populations, 13·2% (7·2-20·7) in female sex workers, 11·3% (9·0-13·7) in infertility clinic attendees, 12·4% (7·9-17·7) in women with miscarriage, 12·4% (9·4-15·7) in symptomatic women, and 17·4% (12·5-22·8) in symptomatic men. Pooled prevalence of current rectal infection was 7·7% (4·2-12·0) in men who have sex with men. Substantial between-study heterogeneity was found. Multivariable meta-regression explained 29·0% of variation. Population type was most strongly associated with prevalence. Additional associations were found with assay type, sample size, country, and sex, but not with sampling methodology or response rate (about 90% of studies used convenience sampling and >75% had unclear response rate). There was no evidence for temporal variation in prevalence between 1982 and 2018. INTERPRETATION: C trachomatis prevalence in the Middle East and north Africa is similar to other regions, but higher than expected given its sexually conservative norms. High prevalence in infertility clinic attendees and in women with miscarriage suggests a potential role for C trachomatis in poor reproductive health outcomes in this region. FUNDING: National Priorities Research Program from the Qatar National Research Fund (a member of Qatar Foundation).

Who to Test for Hepatitis C Virus in the Middle East and North Africa?: Pooled Analyses of 2,500 Prevalence Measures, Including 49 Million Tests.

Expanding hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment coverage is challenged by limited testing and diagnosis. This study assessed the risk of exposure, for the Middle East and North Africa, by population, yields of testing, and program efficiency of testing strategies. A standardized and systematically assembled database of 2,542 HCV antibody prevalence studies on 49 million individuals was analyzed. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted to estimate pooled measures for risk of exposure, risk ratio (RR) of exposure, and yields of testing. Program expansion path curves were calculated to assess program efficiency. Countries clustered into two patterns: generalized versus concentrated epidemics. In generalized epidemics (Egypt and Pakistan) relative to general populations, RR of exposure was 6.8 for people who inject drugs (PWID), 6.7 for populations with liver conditions, and 5.0 for populations with high-risk health care exposures. In concentrated epidemics (remaining countries), corresponding RRs were 97.2, 45.1, and 22.2, respectively. In generalized epidemics, the number of tests needed to identify a chronic infection was 2.5 for PWID, 2.4 for populations with liver conditions, 2.7 for populations with high-risk health care exposures, and 14.2 for general populations. In concentrated epidemics, corresponding numbers were 2.8, 8.6, 5.1, and 222.2, respectively. Program expansion path curves demonstrated major gains in program efficiency by targeting specific populations. Risk of exposure varies immensely by population and shows a distinctive hierarchy, particularly in concentrated epidemics. Testing strategies can be much more efficient through population prioritization by risk of exposure. General population testing is not programmatically efficient in concentrated epidemics.

Towards a hepatitis-free Egypt: is this achievable? (Editorial).

Over the past few years, we have seen remarkable developments in the global commitment to address viral hepatitis. In May 2006, 194 countries of the World Health Assembly unanimously adopted the first-ever Global Health Sector Strategy on viral hepatitis, 2016-2021. Through these high-level strategies, countries made a commitment to eliminate viral hepatitis as a public health threat by 2030. Unfortunately, Egypt has one of the highest global burdens of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections; it is estimated that prevalence of HCV is around 4.5% to 6.7%.