Reproducible and predictable yearly pattern in the incidence of uterine cervical cancer.

A yearly pattern in the occurrence of uterine cervical cancer (UCC), obtained from cytological examinations reported as type V (cases concluding a malignant alteration), has been previously shown for data obtained in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (state of Nuevo Leon, Mexico) for a span of 10 years (1978-1987), with a peak of relative incidence in the month of February being high stable for consecutive years. With the aim of extending and validating those results, we analyzed the monthly totals of positive detected cases of UCC in the states of Nuevo Leon, Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Tamaulipas (covering most of Northern Mexico) during the same period. To eliminate bias due to the seasonal variation in the number of screening smears, data were first expressed in relation to the number of cytological examinations done the same month. The least-squares fit of a 1-year cosine curve to the data of relative incidence in the four states reveals a statistically significant yearly pattern (p = .008), with a maximum of relative incidence in February almost double that during the rest of the year. Results indicate that the relative incidence of UCC is higher than the yearly average during the winter, with secondary peaks in May and October. In view of the nonsinusoidal waveform in the incidence of UCC, we undertook a multiple-component analysis, allowing several cosine functions to be simultaneously fitted to the data. Results indicate that the yearly pattern in the relative incidence of UCC can be represented by a model that includes two components with periods of 12 and 4 months (p = .004). The same model can be documented as statistically significant independently for each of the four states. These results, summarizing over 2200 positive cases of UCC detected in more than 1,100,000 screening smears, are in full agreement with those found previously for part of the state of Nuevo Leon and reveal a highly stable and predictable yearly pattern of variation in the relative incidence of UCC in Northern Mexico.

Circannual variation in the incidence of uterine cervix cancer.

The impact of uterine cervix cancer (UCC) can be greatly reduced by regular vaginal examination and other preventive measures. With this aim, UCC screening programs had been developed and applied for several years in Mexico and elsewhere. One point still to be considered in such preventive programs is the possible circannual pattern in the morbidity or mortality of UCC. With the aim of identifying a possible circannual pattern of variation in the incidence of UCC, we analyzed the monthly totals of positive detected cases of UCC in the state of Nuevo León (Mexico) between 1978 and 1987. For eliminating bias due to the seasonal variation in the number of preventive check-ups, data were first expressed in percentage of tests done in the same month. The least-squares fit of a 1-year cosine curve to the data reveals a statistically significant circannual pattern (p = 0.013), with a maximum of relative incidence detected in February. Results indicate UCC incidence higher than the yearly average during the winter, with secondary peaks in August and November. This pattern of variation is similar if one considers separately for analysis the relative incidence of type III, IV, or V UCC (relating to cases suggesting, highly suggesting, or concluding a malignant alteration, respectively). For evaluating the cost-effectiveness of the UCC screening campaign providing these data, the monthly totals of screening check-ups done over the same period were also analyzed. Results reveal a statistically significant circannual rhythm (p < 0.001), with a maximum detected in June.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Circannual incidence of Giardia lamblia in Mexico.

Giardia lamblia, once considered a harmless commensal organism, has become one of the most common pathogenic intestinal parasites. Evidence for various methods of transmission has accumulated and serious physiological and nutritional disturbances as a result of infestation with this parasite have been clinically documented. Giardia lamblia has now been identified as a causative agent of waterborne, foodborne and sexually transmitted infectious diarrhea. Preventive interventions by health education (especially in personal hygiene) are indicated to reduce its spread in the community. The timing of such educational endeavours may be adjusted to the changes in the incidence of giardiasis if such should be predictable insofar as they are rhythmic. Accordingly, monthly totals of positive detected cases of giardiasis reported in Mexico between 1977 and 1985 were first fitted by linear least-squares with a 1-yr cosine curve. Results indicate a predictable circannual variability of Giardia incidence (P less than 0.001), with a crest time situated on the third week of July and monthly means of detected cases above the yearly average incidence between May and September. The validity of this circannual rhythm was further checked by nonlinear least-squares. Results show a presumably 1-yr synchronized estimated period of 8715.1 hr, with a total predictable change (double amplitude of 1788 cases per month) of 43% the average monthly incidence. Moreover, circannual rhythm parameters computed separately for each consecutive year are similar in terms of acrophase (P = 0.771). Awareness of the thus detected circannual predictable variability in the incidence of giardiasis may be important in the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of this infectious disorder. According to the results here found, the timing of prevention interventions by health education should be a readily exploitable factor.

Differences in circannual characteristics of the incidences of amebiasis and giardiasis.

Entamoeba histolytica is the most common pathogenic intestinal parasite in México. Prevalence rates of AM vary widely from place to place, being higher in areas with poor sanitation, households and institutions, and among male homosexuals. Early recognition and treatment may be necessary to prevent its spread in the community. Intervention by preventive health education is indicated. The timing of such educational endeavours may be adjusted to any rhythmic and to that extent predictable changes in the incidence of AM and of any other possibly related gastrointestinal parasitic disease, such as GD. Accordingly, monthly totals of cases of AM and GD detected in Monterrey, (México) between November, 1985, and October, 1987, were fitted by linear least-squares with a 1-year cosine curve. The no-circannual rhythm assumption in the incidence of AM and GD was rejected in both cases (P = .006 and .049, respectively). A comparison of circannual parameters shows differences in M, A and phi between the incidences of AM and GD, the Ps for those comparisons being less than .001, .014 and .041, respectively. A high incidence of GD (above the yearly mean) consistently observed in April could be, however, related to the circannual pattern of AM, showing higher incidences in the spring. The timing of any preventive intervention should take into consideration the circannual variability in the incidence of AM and the differences or correlations with the circannual patterns of other gastrointestinal parasitic diseases.